Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Sorry for double post - I’m so jubilant!

Oh that's absolutely splendid! I'm so pleased for them.

So as those glide bombs aren't made by the west, does that mean Ukraine can aim them at Moscow?

Good question @L1ttledrummergirl. I’d suggest it was only right and proper they were returned en masse.

Are they still in operation though? It sounds like they were destroyed.
Would be amazing if they could be used against Russian military targets, although I'm always fearful of Putin's response - obviously all the nuclear willy waving has worked to a degree on me!

I think there's some confusion. Lipetsk airfield is in Russia. Any glide bombs there during the attack were hopefully destroyed. Ukraine would not have captured any.

Glide bombs have limited range as they simply fall and glide to a target once they are dropped. The higher altitude you drop them from, the further they can glide. I think that 20 to 30 miles range would be the best you could expect.

Had the impression they were destroyed too. I guess organising transport for 700 bombs in a hurry wouldn't be easy, unless they loaded any captured planes up with them and flew them out, which would depend on having spare pilots they'd brought along. Not impossible, with the way this seems to have been planned.

Piece in The Times today states that:
Moscow has retaliated to the surprise invasion into its own territory by dropping an unprecedented 56 glide bombs on the Sunny region in the past 24 hours.

Russia is now bombing its own territory?!

Bloody hell. I'm waiting to find out if they've blown up the gas station in the process.

Wow I've not been following the news the last few days as so busy so just catching up now and this is amazing! Go Ukraine!

The old, mad men - Trump, Putin - they are beyond being able to behave in sane and humane ways. I see strong evidence of decline in Trump. Fingers crossed also Putin.
Imagine the world without either of them.
Yes I know there are many others - especially in Russia, waiting in the wings to stop any change. But still. They can't have long, either of them.
Just imagine the world without those two disruptive, narcissistic, greedy, aggressive men. Just imagine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Mexico denies Ukraine's request to detain Putin during visit. https://kyivindependent.com/mexico-denies-ukraines-request-to-detain-putin-during-his-visit/

⚡️Updated: 700 bombs destroyed in Ukrainian strike against Russia's Lipetsk airbase, source says. https://kyivindependent.com/military-airfield-energy-facility-damaged-in-reported-drone-strike-in-russias-lipetsk-oblast/

⚡️Ukraine may use German-supplied equipment https://kyivindependent.com/german-supplied-equipment-kursk-oblast/ in Kursk Oblast, Bundestag defense committee chair says.

⚡️Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast 'consistent' with US policy, Pentagon says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-incursion-into-kursk-consistent-with-us-policy/

⚡️Russia upgrades situation in Kursk Oblast to 'federal emergency' amid ongoing battles. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-upgrades-situation-in-kursk-oblast-to-federal-emergency-amid-ongoing-battles/

⚡️Column of Russian vehicles, personnel destroyed https://kyivindependent.com/column-of-russian-vehicles-personnel-destroyed-amid-fighting-in-kursk-oblast-multiple-sources-say/ in Kursk Oblast, multiple sources say.

⚡️Displaced residents of Kursk Oblast will be paid $115, Putin decrees. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-says-displaced-residents-of-kursk-oblast-will-be-paid-115/

⚡️Russia closes 3 train stations in Kursk Oblast for passenger transport. https://kyivindependent.com/sudzha-train-station-closed/

Mass fires reported in Rylsk in Kursk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/mass-fires-reported-in-rylsk-in-kursk-oblast/

⚡️ Russia's economy will face sharp decline after second quarter of 2024, Bloomberg reports.
Russia is on track for an intense economic slowdown due to significant labor shortages and constraints placed on the key sectors that backed growth until now, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 9.
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-economy-will-face-sharp-decline-after-second-quarter-bloomberg-reports/

⚡️ Pokrovsk [In Ukraine] is now 16 km from front line, UK Defense Ministry says. https://kyivindependent.com/pokrovsk-16-km-from-front-uk-says/ Recent Russian advances have placed the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast within approximately 16 kilometers of the current front line, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported in its intelligence update on Aug. 9.
"Russian Ground Forces have continued conducting offensive operations along multiple areas of the front line, with Russia achieving further tactical advances," the ministry said.

⚡️IAEA expresses concern about wildfires near occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-expresses-concern-about-wildfires-near-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/
Although no power lines were shut down, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) emphasized the vulnerability of the plant's external power supply, especially as extreme summer heat continues.

⚡️Russia claims it had issued 2.2 million https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-it-issued-2-million-passports-in-occupied-ukrainian-territories/ passports in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russia's Interior Ministry claimed on Aug. 9 that it had issued 2.2 million passports in occupied Ukrainian territories of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts since October 2022.
Russia systematically coerces residents of the occupied territories to accept Russian passports, the U.S. research group Ukraine Conflict Observatory reported last year.

⚡️Update: At least 10 killed, 35 injured in Russian attack on supermarket in Kostiantynivka. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-against-kostiantynivka/

Update: Russia hit https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-against-kostiantynivka/ Kostiantynivka with Kh-38 missile, governor says

Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, appears to have ignored intelligence warnings that Ukraine's Armed Forces were gathering near the border of Kursk Oblast, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 8, citing a source close to the Kremlin. https://kyivindependent.com/gerasimov-ignored-intelligence-warnings-of-ukraines/

⚡️Bloomberg: UAE bans Eswatini-flagged ships in further crackdown on Russian shadow fleet. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-uae-bans-eswatini-flagged-ships-in-further-crackdown-on-russian-shadow-fleet/

Putin signed a law on Aug. 8 expanding the list of "undesirable" organizations to include those funded by foreign states, which then are subject to bans. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-law-banning-undesirable-foreign-state-funded-organizations/

⚡️Ukraine launches new military app, aims to make soldiers’ service ‘paperless.’
Ukraine has launched Army+, a new online application aimed at freeing the country's military from its notoriously heavy paper-based bureacracy. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-launches-new-phone-app-aims-to-make-soldiers-life-paperless/

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 30 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-76/ over past day.

⚡️Russian attack on Selydove in Donetsk Oblast kills https://kyivindependent.com/attack-selydove-kills-2-injures-11/ 2, injures 11.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• AUG 9, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties below 7-day average ■ Equipment slightly below avg; +2 air defence systems & good vehicle losses ■ Janovsky: 49 🇷🇺 16 🇺🇦 added ■ Strikes on both sides above average; strike ratio stays single-digit

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba held discussions with his Norwegian counterpart, Espen Bart Eide, focusing on expanding the coalition of countries providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

According to The Washington Post, Ukraine has reportedly requested permission from the United States to use ATACMS missiles for attacks on Russian airfields. The report cites an anonymous adviser to President Zelensky, who suggested that such a move could help Ukraine maintain control over areas in the Kursk region, providing leverage in negotiations with Russia.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) successfully targeted and struck another Russian helicopter in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation using an FPV drone. This information was provided by a source within the SBU to Ukrainska Pravda.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi reported to President Zelenskyy three times a day, the president said in his evening address. According to Presiden Zelenskyy, the reports are effective, "exactly what our state needs now."

The death toll in Kostiantynivka has risen to 10, with 35 others injured, according to Interior Minister Klymenko. The rescue operation is ongoing, and residential buildings, shops, and more than a dozen cars have been damaged.

In Kostiantynivka, a Nova Post came under attack. The company reported that while all employees survived, one of them suffered a concussion and is currently being taken to the hospital for medical treatment.

EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell has condemned Alexander Lukashenko's regime for its involvement in the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In a statement marking the fourth anniversary of the rigged elections and subsequent protests in Belarus, Borrell accused Lukashenko of providing political, military, and logistical support to Russia, thereby facilitating the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

During the fighting in the Kursk region, Ukraine allegedly seized more territory in less than 48 hours than during the summer counteroffensive of 2023, The Telegraph reports https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/08/ukraines-surprise-attack-in-kursk-has-humiliated-the-russia/

Ukraine's offensive. What is happening in the Kursk region: a review of articles in the Western media.
◾️Yesterday, the defense forces' occupation of Suja and the villages around it was called an incomprehensible and risky move, but now they support it. Business Insider notes that the Russian authorities are at a loss to describe the situation: "everything is under control".
◾️The BBC's Russian service editor Steve Rosenberg writes in a column for the media company's global website that the Kremlin can no longer say that "a special military operation is going according to plan."
◾️The Russian authorities will clearly try to use the events in the Kursk region to mobilize the population and justify their thesis that this is a defensive war, because here is the proof - the Ukrainians are advancing.
◾️Bloomberg notes a change in roles: Ukraine used to defend itself, but now Russia is forced to take a defensive posture. Putin is obviously not happy about this.

🥈Ukrainian Greco-Roman wrestler Parviz Nasibov wins silver at the Olympic Games in Greco-Roman wrestling.

🏅Ukraine has risen to 15th place at the 2024 Olympics after the 13th day of competition and has three golds, silver and four bronzes.

🇺🇦Ukrainian athletes Lyudmila Luzan and Anastasia Rybachuk won the crown at the Summer Olympic Games in a double canoe.

Russian chess player Amina Abakarova blasted her [opponant] Umayganat Osmanova with mercury at a chess tournament in Dagestan. She spilled mercury on the table shortly before the competition in order to knock her rival out of the tournament.
"The Russian Chess Federation temporarily suspends Dagestan chess player Amina Abakarova from participating in all competitions until the conclusion of law enforcement agencies, based on which a final decision will be made, up to a lifetime disqualification,"
the federation said in a statement.

Can't help feeling nervous about the outcome but for the moment......slava Ukraine

According to The Washington Post, Ukraine has reportedly requested permission from the United States to use ATACMS missiles for attacks on Russian airfields. The report cites an anonymous adviser to President Zelensky, who suggested that such a move could help Ukraine maintain control over areas in the Kursk region, providing leverage in negotiations with Russia.

Well, this certainly changes the picture tactically. As @notimagain has pointed out, the further they have to fly from, the less time on target they have and the more strain on the aircraft and crews. Let's also hope the ATACMS takes out some aircraft before the Russians get their thumbs out and move them.

Divine intervention could be the black swan here. We can only hope and wait.

Same. But the destruction of 700 glide bombs and, it's rumoured, 'several dozen' Russian aircraft has to be worth a lot.

Just waiting for the statistics on the planes to turn up in the official losses, in a day or three's time.

Has anyone seen confirmed reports of the Kursk nuclear power plant being shut down. I am seeing on Twitter reports of blackouts and the internet down but it's not by accounts I recognise so probably untrue

Jürgen Nauditt is very good and he posted that it is shut down.

Just found this as well from Trent Telenko https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1821988703994311112

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.
• Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however.
• The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.
• COA (Course of Action) 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
• COA 2: The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Grouping of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast.
• COA 3: The Russian military command may choose to redeploy operational reserves that it accumulated for its planned Summer 2024 offensive effort and/or relatively better provisioned and more combat effective frontline units to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in the theater.
• COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to maintain the forces it currently has committed to Kursk Oblast but could redeploy significant aviation and strike elements to the area in an effort to improve Russia's ability to retake territory.
• The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia.
• Ukrainian officials have yet to comment directly on Ukraine's ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast.
• US officials noted that Ukraine's ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast is not a violation of US restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets within Russia's border areas. [Excellent]

* *

I’m feeling really uneasy about this, while it’s good to see Ukraine have a victory of sorts, this could go horribly wrong and god help those soldiers if they’re ever captured. Very happy to be proven wrong.

It's genius. They are on the offensive, and by opening another front in Russia are causing a reaction. This could change things elsewhere.

God help Ukraine if its ever captured. I understand your fears @dibly but a war of attrition is not going to save any more lives either.