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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
heldinadream · 14/08/2024 11:01

minsmum · 14/08/2024 09:38

I worry for Steve. Must be a prime target for spurious arrest. Frankly I wish the BBC would bring him home.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 14:41

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The Ukrainian operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast is yet to have an impact on the fighting in the Toretsk sector in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces continue attacking Toretsk, and battles have now reached the outskirts of the town, military spokesperson Oleksandr Bordiian told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-incursion-has-not-yet-influenced-situation-near-toretsk-military-says/

⚡️Ukraine controls 74 settlements in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-controls-74-settlements-kursk/

⚡️ Russia pulls some troops from Ukraine to reinforce Kursk Oblast, WSJ reports. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-pulls-some-troops-from-ukraine-to-reinforce-kursk-oblast-wsj-reports/

⚡️Ukrainian TV reports from Kursk Oblast's Sudzha for first time, video shows. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-tv/

⚡️Belarus to transfer military equipment https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-to-transfer-military-equipment-to-russia-amid-ukraines-operation-in-kursk-oblast-media-says/ to Russia amid Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast, media says.
The recent delivery of Belarusian military equipment is related to "an urgent request from the Russian side" due to losses and a lack of equipment in Kursk Oblast and other areas, Belnovosti said, citing an undisclosed source in the country's defense ministry.

⚡️Ukraine's incursion brings Russia closer to new mobilization, Bloomberg says.
The Russian army is not receiving enough new soldiers to keep up with losses at the front, which are the heaviest since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 13, citing undisclosed sources "close to the Kremlin and Russian Defense Ministry." https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-incursion-brings-russia-closer-to-new-mobilization-bloomberg-says/

⚡️Ukraine, Russia have no intention of halting gas flows to Europe amid fighting in Kursk Oblast, Bloomberg reports. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-russia-have-no-intention-of-halting-gas-flaws-to-europe-amid-fighting-in-kursk-oblast-bloomberg-reports/

⚡️ Russia claims over 110 downed drones amid reported explosions near airbases. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-over-110-downed-drones/

⚡️2 out of 5 Russian working airfields in occupied Crimea 'operating at a minimum,' military says. https://kyivindependent.com/2-out-of-5-operating-russian-airfields-struck-by-ukrainian-forces-in-occupied-crimea-military-says/

⚡️'Hundreds' of Russian soldiers surrendered during Ukraine's incursion of Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/hundreds-of-russian-soldiers-surrendered-during-ukraines-incursion-of-kursk-oblast-zelensky-says/

⚡️Russian troops use the occupied Kinburn Spit for the attacks on Ukraine's south and vessels that could enter ports in the city of Mykolaiv, Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, said on Aug. 14.
The Kinburn Spit is located at the mouth of the Dnipro River, south of Kherson. It is one of the parts of Mykolaiv Oblast that remain under Russian occupation. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-from-occupied-kinburn-spit-block-navigation-navy-says/

⚡️Poland signs $10 billion deal to purchase Apache helicopters from US. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-signs-10-billion-deal-to-purchase-apache-helicopters-from-us/

⚡️ Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream explosion, investigation claims. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-issues-arrest-warrant-over-nord-stream/

⚡️Ukraine launches new graduate program https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-launches-new-graduate-program-in-drone-development/ in drone development.

⚡️Ukraine aims to boost share of consumption of green energy to 27% by 2030. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-green-energy-plan/

⚡️Russia to evacuate refugees from Kursk Oblast to Russian-occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-evacuates-refugees-from-kursk-oblast-to-russian-held-territory-of-zaporizhzhia-oblast/

⚡️Russia revokes banking license https://kyivindependent.com/russia-revokes-banking-license-of-american-express-subsidiary/ of American Express subsidiary on Aug. 13, following the unit's voluntary liquidation request.

Oleksandr Myhulia, an experienced Ukrainian pilot and commander of an aviation unit of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade squadron, was killed in action on Aug. 12, the brigade said on Aug. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-pilot-killed-in-action/

⚡️ Ukraine captures over 100 Russian troops https://kyivindependent.com/in-kursk-ukraine-captures-more-than-100-russian-soldiers/ in Kursk Oblast in less than a day, Syrskyi says.

⚡️ SBU says it busted Russian spy network https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-says-it-busted-russian-spy-network-including-yanukovychs-ex-bodyguards/ including ex-members of Yanukovych's security.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 13 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-78/ over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

  • AUG 14, 2024
■ Engagements stay above 7-day average, 2nd highest casualties this month ■ Big equipment losses including 5 MLRS (matches 2024 record) & >20 tanks ■ 20 🇺🇦 strikes, strike ratio back in single-digits
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 14:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has received 4.2 billion euros from the EU under the Ukraine Facility program, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
"The government will allocate these funds to social programs, humanitarian efforts, and other critical budget needs. We continue to cover military expenses solely from our own resources. ... We anticipate receiving an additional tranche of aid by the end of the year," Shmyhal stated.

Russia has acknowledged the inadequacy of the Pantsir-S1 air defense system against drones, including those tasked with protecting Putin's residence near Moscow, according to an analysis by Defense Express.
In response, Russia is promoting the use of a new version of the system, the Pantsir-SMD-E, which is equipped with up to 48 small-sized TKB-1055 missiles. However, this updated model lacks the guns present in its predecessor.
Analysts point out that anti-aircraft artillery is particularly effective against UAV-type targets. The German-made Gepard anti-aircraft system, for instance, has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in real combat with minimal ammunition consumption. Artillery systems that use ammunition with programmed detonation, like Skynex, have proven to be highly effective, something Russia has yet to replicate.
The decision to rely on TKB-1055 mini-missiles for intercepting drones is viewed as problematic by experts. They argue that effective anti-drone systems must be capable of intercepting large numbers of drones swiftly. The Pantsir system struggles with this due to its limitations: it can only target four drones within a ±45-degree sector and two within a ±90-degree sector. Additionally, all missiles must be guided to the target, rendering the system ineffective against a swarm of drones.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, recently held discussions with Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, regarding the latest developments on the front lines.

Ukraine has held its first round of negotiations with Great Britain to establish a bilateral agreement focused on transitioning to a stronger and deeper partnership, according to the Office of the President.
The forthcoming comprehensive long-term agreement will build on the 2020 Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade, and Strategic Partnership, as well as the 2024 Security Cooperation Agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain.
The new agreement will cover a wide range of mutual interests, including security, economy, energy, culture, art, and more.

A new wave of ru-propaganda fakes about events in the Kursk region.
https://cpd.gov.ua/en/articles-en/russian-propaganda-unleashes-new-fakes-about-the-kursk-region-events/

Ohmatdyt Resumes Organ Transplant Operations
The hospital's transplant team recently achieved a successful kidney transplant for 16-year-old Daniil from the Kharkiv region, who had been living with chronic kidney disease and was dependent on peritoneal dialysis for many years.

Russian occupiers have destroyed the Lesya Ukrainka Museum in Yalta. The museum, dedicated to the renowned Ukrainian writer, has ceased to exist, according to reports from "Voice of Crimea." This was discovered by correspondents during an inspection of cultural institutions on the occupied peninsula.

Russia frequently accuses the West of colonialism, Nazism, and racism, yet remains utterly silent on its own deep-seated prejudice, persecution, and racially motivated violence. These issues are pervasive across Russia, fueled by an imperialist arrogance that infiltrates every level of society. The ongoing war against Ukraine is a glaring manifestation of this mindset—and it's far from the only example. https://t.me/United24media/24268

UNITED24Media

Russia frequently accuses the West of colonialism, Nazism, and racism, yet remains utterly silent on its own deep-seated prejudice, persecution, and racially motivated violence. These issues are pervasive across Russia, fueled by an imperialist arrogan...

https://t.me/United24media/24268

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 14:53

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

On the night of August 13-14, Ukrainian drones attacked three Russian military airfields
Russian media reported explosions in the Savasleyka area of the Nizhny Novgorod oblast, where MiG-31K fighters are based.
There were also reports of explosions at the Borisoglebsk and Baltimore airfields in the Voronezh oblast.

Germany has issued https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-07/nordstream-anschlag-ermittlungen-festnahme an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian national accused of involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage
The suspect, a diving instructor named Volodymyr S., reportedly lived in Pruszków, a town west of Warsaw, but has recently gone into hiding. It is unclear if he has returned to Ukraine.
Investigators believe that Volodymyr S. was among the passengers in a white Citroën seen near Rügen on the night of September 8, 2022. The vehicle is suspected of transporting the crew to the Andromeda yacht, which was used to ferry divers to the explosion sites. Volodymyr S. was identified through photographs and witness statements, leading to the issuance of the arrest warrant.
The investigation also implicates two other Ukrainian nationals, a man and a woman, who are suspected of participating in the attack, possibly as divers responsible for placing the explosive charges on the pipelines.

The Ukrainian army has begun using robotic dogs from the British company Brit Alliance at the front
According to the German newspaper Bild https://www.bild.de/news/ausland/albtraum-fuer-putin-roboter-hunde-schnueffeln-nach-russen-soldaten-66ba62f521288862e5f065ff the four-legged drones are very compact, durable, and maneuverable, which allows them to get where an aerial drone cannot. For example, into trenches or buildings.
Robot dogs are also used to detect booby traps and monitor the movement of Russian troops, which significantly reduces the risk to Ukrainian scouts.
Journalists write that Ukrainians have more than 30 such robotic dogs.

Ukraine was preparing a plan to break through into Russia's Kursk oblast in extreme secrecy. Officers learned about it three days before the offensive, soldiers - only a day before the offensive, The New York Times found out

Ukrainian Olympic women's sabre fencing team and some man🙃

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 14:57

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

All Eyes on Kursk, But Donetsk in Trouble – Special Forces Source Says
The Russian army is advancing in the Donetsk region, heading toward the strategically important city of Pokrovsk. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37345

Russia Reportedly Begins Entrenching Positions in Kursk Region
The open-source intelligence (OSINT) community has identified several fresh Russian trenches in the Kremlin-controlled areas of the Kursk region using new satellite imagery. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37386

On August 13, the rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine's credit rating due to the initiation of the restructuring of Eurobonds.
Specifically, Ukraine's rating was lowered from "C" to "RD" (Restricted Default), and the 2026 Eurobonds worth $750 million, for which Ukraine failed to pay the coupon, were downgraded to "D".

Old Habits Die Hard – Russian Troops Loot Abandoned Villages in Kursk
Discipline seems to be breaking down among some of Moscow’s forces that are still reeling after Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a week ago.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37323

UK Blocks Use of Storm Shadow Missiles for Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive
The UK denied Ukraine use of Storm Shadow weapons in Kursk operation despite Zelensky’s request, while claiming to “support Ukraine’s clear right of self-defense in accordance with international law.” https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37329

Record Evacuation of Russians, Largest Since 2nd Chechen War
Nearly 194,000 people are set to be evacuated from areas in the Kursk and Belgorod regions due to the ongoing Ukrainian military offensive. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37338

Oleksandr Syrsky: The Ukrainian General Overseeing Kursk Incursion https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37366

More Than 3,000 Foreign Companies Opened in Wartime Ukraine
Data showed that most foreign companies opened in Ukraine after the 2022 invasion were involved in wholesale trade, with Turkish citizens among the top nationals opening companies in Ukraine. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37360

Old Habits Die Hard – Russian Troops Loot Abandoned Villages in Kursk

Discipline seems to be breaking down among some of Moscow’s forces that are still reeling after Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a week ago.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37323

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 14/08/2024 15:28

I worry for Steve. Must be a prime target for spurious arrest. Frankly I wish the BBC would bring him home.

Totally agree @minsmum - I assume he doesn't want to leave, but his position must be precarious - a BBC journalist would be seen as a good prize I'm sure.

MissConductUS · 14/08/2024 15:50

The search for the guilty has begun.

Putin Seeking to Find Out 'How and Why He Was Deceived' over Kursk: ISW

Note that the "I was deceived" bit is to deflect blame from himself.

A lot of the Ukrainian success in Kursk is down to structural dysfunction in Russia's defenses. The FSB, Border Guards (Rosguardia) and the Russian MoD (regular army) all share partial responsibility for border security, but have different chains of command and limited coordination of activity or data sharing. It's a recipe for failure. I think Putin put his fixer (the former bodyguard) in charge to have someone with overall responsibility. But that alone won't solve the disparate chain of command problem or lack of coordination. And as far as I can determine, the bodyguard doesn't have a military background that will help him make sense of the situation or make tactically sound decisions.

I also read that the Russians are digging the trenches about 45km from the territory that Ukraine currently controls. That's a lot of additional territory to cede to them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin seeking to find out "how and why he was deceived" over Kursk: ISW

Russian president wants to know who is responsible for Ukraine catching Moscow off guard with incursion into Kursk on August 6.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-kursk-ukraine-incursion-dyumin-1938977

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 17:41

It's lucky for Ukraine that they're so much more interested in affixing blame to people than solving the problems.

Igotjelly · 14/08/2024 17:42

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 17:41

It's lucky for Ukraine that they're so much more interested in affixing blame to people than solving the problems.

I think it speaks to their inability to fix the problem.

DrBlackbird · 14/08/2024 21:45

On the one hand, Ukraine's incursion into Russia has certainly caught the attention of the world at a time it was at danger of becoming 4th page news and changed the dynamic of the war. On the other, surely this is a suicide mission for those brave soldiers? Won’t Putin just bomb the hell out of them?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 23:14

It looked that way at first but this seems to have been a very carefully developed and solid plan, and apparently perhaps they will have defenses in place.

Both sides are digging trenches and defenses, the Russians about 45km out from where the Ukrainian front line is guessed to be. Ukraine isn't saying where it is ...

blueshoes · 14/08/2024 23:15

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area.
  • Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.
  • The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian authorities appear to be largely relying on Russian conscripts, and elements of some regular and irregular military units pulled from less critical sectors of the frontline to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion, however.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Russian Presidential Aid Aide Alexei Dyumin to supervise Russia’s “counterterrorism operation” in Kursk Oblast on August 12
  • Russian officials continue to undermine a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely portrays Ukraine as unwilling to engage in legitimate, good-faith negotiations and places the onus for peace negotiations on Ukraine.
  • Russian authorities fined Telegram and WhatsApp four million rubles ($44,000) each for failing to remove "prohibited" content on August 13.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to use the Army-2024 International Military-Technical Forum in Moscow to expand its international defense ties.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 23:17

They are apparently generally using manoeverability and they seem to have managed to arrange to knock out Russian communications by jamming, and timed a strong hacking attack on the day of the incursion to mess things up for the Russians even more.

MissConductUS · 14/08/2024 23:18

DrBlackbird · 14/08/2024 21:45

On the one hand, Ukraine's incursion into Russia has certainly caught the attention of the world at a time it was at danger of becoming 4th page news and changed the dynamic of the war. On the other, surely this is a suicide mission for those brave soldiers? Won’t Putin just bomb the hell out of them?

The Russians have been bombing Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians have moved air defense assets into Kursk. They reported shooting down a Russian attack aircraft earlier today. They've also been conducting drone attacks on Russian military airfields hundreds of miles inside Russia. Move, counter move. And the Russians can hardly flatten entire Russian towns and villages as they have done in Ukraine. That limits what they can do.

I don't think the Ukrainians can stay in Kursk forever, but at the moment, the Russians don't have any good options for forcing them out.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 23:23

And the Russians can hardly flatten entire Russian towns and villages as they have done in Ukraine

They can, you know. There's something of an info blackout in Russia on this whole incursion, so they can bomb their own and then blame Ukraine for it. If they then retake the settlements, they can take videos of the devastation like in Bahkmut and Avdiivka and simply say Ukraine did it.

MissConductUS · 15/08/2024 00:16

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/08/2024 23:23

And the Russians can hardly flatten entire Russian towns and villages as they have done in Ukraine

They can, you know. There's something of an info blackout in Russia on this whole incursion, so they can bomb their own and then blame Ukraine for it. If they then retake the settlements, they can take videos of the devastation like in Bahkmut and Avdiivka and simply say Ukraine did it.

That would be very risky politically if evidence comes out that they caused a substantial number of Russian civilian deaths with reckless disregard for the risk, that could cause widespread unrest. I don't think that two and a half years in, the war is popular among the masses.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/08/2024 07:33

With the heavily increasing censorship, it might not come out except as whispers and rumours. What would Russians do, anyway?

On another note, it seems that indeed Ukraine was probably responsible for the Nordstrom 2 bombing!! https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c (if anyone has direct access to the article that would be great)

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 07:39

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/08/2024 07:33

With the heavily increasing censorship, it might not come out except as whispers and rumours. What would Russians do, anyway?

On another note, it seems that indeed Ukraine was probably responsible for the Nordstrom 2 bombing!! https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c (if anyone has direct access to the article that would be great)

Here you go Ducks: archive.ph/2024.08.15-040819/www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 15/08/2024 11:01

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/08/2024 07:33

With the heavily increasing censorship, it might not come out except as whispers and rumours. What would Russians do, anyway?

On another note, it seems that indeed Ukraine was probably responsible for the Nordstrom 2 bombing!! https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c (if anyone has direct access to the article that would be great)

Happy to oblige.

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage - Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off

Quite the story.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/08/2024 11:23

Thanks very much !

I wonder if this will cause severe trouble or if it will be filed under 'naughty boys'

It'll have helped Germany break its reliance on Russia. Given that top German defense people keep saying 'we need to be war-ready in 5 years', that's a good thing.

blueshoes · 15/08/2024 12:47

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.
  • Ukrainian officials continue to discuss ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast and offer their interpretations of the political impact that Ukraine may aim to generate.
  • Ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are generating tangible defensive, logistical, and security impacts within Russia.
  • The Russian government continues recruitment efforts to support operations in Kursk Oblast.
  • Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov seems to be posturing himself as the spokesperson for the Russian defense in Kursk Oblast, but his claims have consistently been false and largely contradict claims made by relatively reliable Russian milbloggers.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of August 13 to 14, damaging several airfields.
  • Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party furthered a narrative echoing a Kremlin information operation meant to justify Russia’s violence against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states formerly colonized by the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.
  • Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City and southeast of Pokrovsk.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DrBlackbird · 15/08/2024 12:57

I don't think the Ukrainians can stay in Kursk forever, but at the moment, the Russians don't have any good options for forcing them out.

Hopefully so.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/08/2024 13:06

I am not at all sure they would want to stay in Kursk for ever, but it won't hurt Putin to think that they think that they can.

minsmum · 15/08/2024 13:33

Kursk used to be Ukraine I believe

MissConductUS · 15/08/2024 13:56

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/08/2024 13:06

I am not at all sure they would want to stay in Kursk for ever, but it won't hurt Putin to think that they think that they can.

Edited

I think the most likely next step will be for the Ukrainians to pull back their forces to shrink the attack surface and shorten their supply lines while still occupying some Russian territory. This will improve their tactical position while still inflicting the political damage on Putin.

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