Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

I’m really hoping with a stonking majority he can come in and be quite radical because the country needs change!

I feel emotional watching his speech. I appreciate his frankness and grown up-ness, especially in the world we are currently living in. Even just the promise of hope after 14 years of awfulness.

I was very glad to see the results when I woke up this morning. Sure Labour has its issues, but a far far better option than the Tories.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ ⚡️ Update: Orban, Putin https://kyivindependent.com/orban-arrives-in-moscow/ meet in Moscow to discuss Ukraine, bilateral ties.

⚡️Indian PM Modi to visit https://kyivindependent.com/indian-pm-modi-to-visit-russia-on-july-8/ Russia on July 8.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on July 8, the office of the prime minister and the Kremlin confirmed on July 4.

⚡️ Germany's 3rd Patriot air defense system kyivindependent.com/germanys-3rd-patriot-air-defense-system-arrived-in-ukraine-ambassador-says/ arrived in Ukraine.

⚡️Bureaucracy preventing https://kyivindependent.com/bureaucracy-energy-infrastructure/ allocation of funding to protect Ukraine's energy infrastructure, media reports.
Ukraine's government has not distributed EU funding for the reconstruction and protection of energy infrastructure worth 150 million euros ($162 million) for four months due to "bureaucratic obstacles," Ekonomichna Pravda (EP) reported on July 4, citing sources familiar with the situation.

⚡️ Latvia to send over 2,500 drones https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-to-send-over-2-500-drones-to-ukraine-in-july-ministry-says/ to Ukraine in July, ministry says.

⚡️ Labor shortages drive up wages https://kyivindependent.com/labor-shortages-drive-up-wages-nbu-says/ in Ukraine, central bank says. According to the NBU's report, the offered monthly salaries have continuously grown from around Hr 13,500 ($332) in February 2022 to roughly Hr 19,500 ($480) in May 2024.

Russian authorities have detained Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, the top military commander whose troops were responsible for the massacre in Bucha, on charges of large-scale fraud, Russian state media outlet TASS reported on July 4. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-commander-linked-to-bucha-killings-detained-on-corruption-charges/

⚡️Slovakia to increase https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-to-increase-electricity-supplies-to-ukraine-ahead-of-colder-months-slovak-president-says/ electricity supplies to Ukraine during colder months, Slovak president says.

Who needs warships when you’ve got drones? Russia loses control https://kyivindependent.com/who-needs-warships-when-youve-got-drones-russia-dominance-in-black-sea/ over Black Sea

⚡️ Up to 1.5 million museum artifacts https://kyivindependent.com/up-to-1-5-million-museum-artifacts-under-russian-occupation-ukraines-culture-minister-says/ under Russian occupation, Ukraine's culture minister says.

⚡️ Russia attacks port facilities near Odesa, killing 1, injuring 7.

The Muftiate of Karachay-Cherkessia, a republic of Russia in the North Caucasus, announced a temporary ban on the wearing of the niqab, a day after the Muftiate of Dagestan announced a similar ban. https://kyivindependent.com/another-russian-muftiate-announces-temporary-niqab-ban/

⚡️Zelensky congratulates https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-congratulates-starmer-on-uk-election-victory/ Labour Party's Starmer on UK election victory.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 7, injure 43 over past day.
⚡️ Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast kill woman, injure 8, including children.
⚡️ Death toll of Russia’s July 3 attack on Dnipro rises to 8.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 #- JUL 5, 2024
■ Fewer engagements & casualties but stay on a high level
■ Drop in equipment losses; significant drone losses however
■ Increased strikes on both sides, slightly worse ratio compared to yesterday

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will not cease fire in Ukraine, expressing that peace through mediators and the Council does not suit him. He claimed that Russia cannot agree to a ceasefire as it is not confident in Kyiv's actions.

NATO countries plan to expand weapons production, with a detailed plan to be presented at the upcoming summit in Washington from July 9 to 11, according to Deutsche Welle.
This project includes increasing the production of defense equipment and joint arms procurement projects, such as missiles for air defense systems, high-precision projectiles, and 155 mm artillery ammunition. While the exact investment amounts are not specified, experts estimate it could be in the tens or hundreds of billions of euros. The summit will also address the defense capabilities of individual NATO member states and a fairer distribution of responsibilities for supporting Ukraine.

More than a third of Russian citizens believe that the use of nuclear weapons could be "justified" in the war with Ukraine, according to a Levada Center poll.
The data shows that 10% of respondents "definitely" support a nuclear strike, while another 24% consider it "rather" appropriate. This marks a five-percentage-point increase in support for nuclear escalation over the past year, reaching a record high since the war began.
The highest support for a nuclear strike is found among pensioners who regularly watch Russian television and "approve" of Putin's activities. In the 55+ age group, 35% support a nuclear strike, while 41% of those who get their information from TV programs are in favor of nuclear escalation. [lemmings]

The Russians are systematically "erasing" Chasiv Yar with artillery and heavy flamethrower systems, according to Ivan Petrychak, a representative of the press service of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, in a comment to Radio Svoboda.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

"Russia is the aggressor": Michel says Hungary's EU presidency does not give Orban a mandate to contact Moscow
This is how European Council President Charles Michel commented on reports that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

This morning, drones attacked Russia's Zvezda space reconnaissance system in the Stavropol Territory
This was reported by OSINTers https://t.me/DniproOfficial/3868 and Defense Express https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/scho_tse_za_divna_vch_33443_rosijskogo_gru_jaka_bula_atakovana_ukrajinskimi_dronami-15885.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0dP2m4uX-ItStiKbGTXpYhS2uvaDWV1DMVqgCQylvs11CTRbw5XF8hrh8_aem__4Y5_GHKGPbSfRHCVq768A Local media had previously mentioned an attack on military unit #33443 and one wounded person.

The secret of why Kyiv was not taken in three days was finally revealed by Putin
He said that when Russian troops were standing near Kyiv, the Western partners asked Russia to cease fire. And it did. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not. Russia was deceived, says Putin. [Now as a spin goes, that's almost impressive. Yet again, Russia is the victim!]

Drone Attacks in Russia: Explosions and Fires Reported in Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar Territory

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress sorry for delay, stayed up till 0430 watching it all unfold and am paying the price now! There are several reasons I am not keen - the women’s issues, Starmer’s refusal to answer questions he doesn’t like, the lack of solid time commitment to the increase in defence budget, the very divisive Angela Raynor and the fact that this vote, for many, was more about removing the Tories than it was about supporting Labour. Also, David Lammy as Foreign Secretary 😐

Huh, in some ways Im not up on him too much, though yes about the women's issues!

I do hear he's a man of great personal integrity though which is a hopeful sign.

Agree she’s divisive but Angela Raynor was a key draw for me.

John Healey is defence secretary.

A quick read up on Healey looks promising

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarization" as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire.
2. Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault (VDV) Brigade, Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, on fraud charges on July 3 following reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in June 2024.
3. Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) efforts to expand its presence in Central Asia and will likely use an increased SCO presence as one of its levers to expand Russian influence in the region.
4. The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced the purchase of $2.2 billion worth of US-produced air defense interceptors and an aid package worth $150 million for Ukraine on July 3.
5. Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
6. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on July 4 that around 190,000 Russians signed military service contracts during the first six months of 2024 during a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) meeting about staffing the Russian military with contract soldiers.

Zelenskyy and Starmer have spoken which is very positive. Showing clear priorities.

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1809303645164630154

Finally some hope with a new UK government. Not a Sunak fan but liked the dignity with which he walked away, Trump could learn from that (although that feels a long shot at the moment).

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
2. Putin is demanding both the surrender of a significant portion of Ukraine's territory and people to Russian occupation and Ukrainian military capitulation in advance of any negotiations on an end-state to the war.
3. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the soundest course of action for degrading Putin's confidence in and commitment to his desired end state for his war of aggression against Ukraine.
4. Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement contradicts the Kremlin's previous effort to place the onus for negotiations on the West and Ukraine.
5. Putin attempted to portray Orban as an EU representative who can speak on the EU's behalf – a claim that EU officials explicitly denied.
6. Recent Russian domestic polls suggest that Kremlin information operations are influencing domestic Russian support of the war in Ukraine.
7. These Russian polls indicate that Russians who criticize the conduct of the war in Ukraine still support the war due to patriotism and disenfranchisement.
8. Many of Russia's "non-opponents" to the war have criticisms that parallel those of Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, yet they lack the ultranationalists' close attention to the war and desire for political change in support of Russian war aims.
9. Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai on July 4 and 5.
10. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.
11. Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials continue to portray themselves as providing adequate medical care and other support for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine amid ongoing criticisms that the Russian military command sends injured soldiers to fight on the frontline.

Yes, I felt Sunak was working for country, not party, when he made that speech.

He knows the games that are being played against the existence of liberal democracies, and he chose to affirm the UK's.

I've long thought Sunak was weak – ever since he got the job as Chancellor when Javid resigned on principle because of Cummings' interference. Then he stuck his neck out supporting Cummings' Barnard Castle nonsense – and it duly got chopped off.

However I haven't rated him as purely egotistical, greedy or mad – unlike his two immediate predecessors. He's made some howlers, but I've always thought that underneath he had the values of "doing the right thing."

His leaving speech has cemented this view of him, and he's gone up in my estimation.

I used to have so much time for Biden but honestly am now so incredibly angry that he’s willing to fuck American democracy to stay in the presidential race 😡

Same. What is going on?

Just his insistence that only the ‘almighty’ can remove him from the race.

I wonder if this lack of rational assessment is part of mental deterioration.

Just read the bbc article about that now, makes me mad too. He should be putting the greater good of the country first, not his own desires - that in itself makes him a poor President

Apparently he has refused to take a cognitive assessment and release it to the public.

Also I get that he felt ill the day of the debate but I don’t want someone who gets a head cold and as a result can’t so much as string a sentence together being the one taking a 3am call about a nuclear attack on Ukraine (for example!)

Interestingly Keir Starmer was part of Marina Litvinenko’s legal team when she sought damages at the ECHR following the death of her husband. So some pretty legitimate experience!

I think it's that, and ego and the fact that being the president is an incredibly seductive job. It's the closest thing we have to royalty in the U.S. You have servants 24 hours a day, a private plane, the ability to ring anyone in the world and have them take your call, etc.

The Clintons made an unholy fuss about moving out and tried to take some of the furniture with them.

I thought this was a pretty good analysis of how the Democrats have handed an almost certain victory to Trump if they don't replace Biden with someone more electable.

Apologies, the link didn't post. That's happened to me before. I'll try again.

Donald Trump and the Clouseau Democrats