Thread 49 Sunak: He Left them on the beaches

[DuncinToffee]

3 Weeks to go

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5090939-thread-48-sunak-capsized-on-the-ship-of-lies?page=40

It’s short. I’ll do a Clav.

For all the terror he triggers in Brian Cox, Nigel Farage is a saloon bar bore, not a beer hall putscher. Winning power doesn’t really interest him. He has never had any sort of governmental responsibility: the perfect tribune for disgruntled Right-winger, who can be safe in the knowledge that none of his ideas really matter. Deport asylum seekers to the Moon? Sounds tremendous!

But Reform UK’s once-and-future leader is a victim of his own success. With the real prospect that a Farage-Davey tag team will push Rishi Sunak into the abyss, many Right-wingers will have been paying close attention to today’s manifesto launch. Sorry – “contract” launch. But unfortunately for those hoping for a serious policy prospectus, the document has the imagination and incontinence of a back of a fag packet doodle after a hearty lunch.

Lifting income tax thresholds. Scrapping carbon targets. Net zero migration, quitting the ECHR, and cutting NHS waiting lists to zero. What’s not to love? Yet it’s all too good to be true. Pledging to cut taxes by cutting £50 billion in spending is easy. But what happens when you tell the Treasury – or your backbenchers start demanding a new A&E in their seat?

Farage is great at identifying problems – stifling taxes, ridiculous immigration levels, climate lunacy– but providing genuine solutions would be too much like hard work. If Reform UK ever got into power, the Sir Humphreys of the Whitehall Machine would stump him within a week. Rather than resolve Britain’s problems, he’d soon decamp from Number 10 to drown his sorrows in The Red Lion.

But Farage isn’t interested in power. This is not a plan for government, but a Santa list of cask strength policies designed to woo wavering Tories. Farage isn’t aiming for Downing Street, but to hand every Conservative MP their P45. His proposals will strike many Tories as exactly what we should have been doing in government these last fourteen years. If Labour wins anyway, why not vote for it?

Reform’s “contract” might be a far from serious document. But Conservatives only have ourselves to blame if we find it so attractive.

What effect would Reform have on your mortgage payments?

Double truss?

IFS response to Reforms manifesto.

ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction

In essence none of it intended to provide workable or practical policy. Meaningless costing.

Drafted for those that wish to live in a fantasy world. BeLeave.

Bloody drivel. Frustrating that we have to spend a nanosecond on such dross.

Reform UK has published its manifestoto^. They plan tax cuts which they say will cost £70bn; however our analysis shows that they’ve miscalculated, and the actual cost will be at least £93bn.*
Reform UK says it will fund these tax costs with £70bn of savings and additional revenue, but it provides few details. Their proposal to change Bank of England reserve rules is over-stated by at least £15bn, and the cost would likely fall on businesses and consumers, not banks.
These two factors mean that Reform UK’s plans have a total unfunded cost of at least £38bn – about twicece^ the unfunded cost of Liz Truss’s ill-fated 2022 “mini-Budgetet^“.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/reformukkmanifesto2024/

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/reformukkmanifesto2024/

For people supporting Reform, it will not matter what IFS or anyone else says.
They believe Farage will make their lives better and the other two main parties will not.

That unfortunately is down to both the Tories and Labour, who quite frankly are offering very little at all.

Even their dentistry plan is beyond pitiful, £109m ... i mean really? is that it?

I want the tories out more than most but they are really going to have to up their game.

Here is Best for Britain's exact wording of their advice for those Scottish constituencies that the Conservatives have no chance of winning

In seats that are being defended by an SNP incumbent, or where 2019 General Election notional winners are the SNP, and there is no possibility of the Conservatives winning the seat,^ we will make a tactical voting recommendation for Scottish Labour to ensure the Scotland’s views are represented on both the next (likely) UK Government’s benches, as well as the opposition benches.^

So I was maybe slightly but not very unfair in my earlier summary of their advice. But what an indictment of the expected Labour attitude towards democratically elected representatives of Scottish constituencies

Italics didn't work for my quote thanks to a misplaced ^

"Double truss?"

Reform UK plan tax cuts which they say will cost £70bn; however our analysis shows the actual cost will be at least £93bn.

And their funding figures are out by £15bn+

All this means Reform UK have a total unfunded cost of at least £38bn - about two Liz Trusses.

x.com/danneidle/status/1802703253223719280?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

Why does no one ever listen to me?

Govey, govey govey.

For those of us old enough to remember how good it felt, there's a list of expected, and hopeful, 'Portillo Moments' in the Guardian today. Glimpsed it on my phone but haven't backtracked to it yet. It is one of the associated items on the main Farage and other politics page. If I find it, I'll upload it.

All this means Reform UK have a total unfunded cost of at least £38bn - about two Liz Trusses.

I still haven't really seen anyone say why Farage suddenly decided to stand in Clacton that answers all my questions. Feels like most are taking it on face value.

When people say "oh well he wants to stand because he thinks he can win this time" doesn't fit with the strong perception is that he's got absolutely no interest in being an MP with all that entails. He can be far more of a disruptor as 1 man outside than 1 mp inside as far as I can see. As for PM in 2029!

I'm half expecting him to pull out at some point.

I wonder if Trump''s 38 guilty verdict had anything to do with it

Yeah I read that this morning.

But "more personal attacks" actually means "more lies" or "more asking them why they aren't doing things we should have"

I've been wondering that too @DuncinToffee. But idk know. It doesn't really feel like Trump is a busted flush yet sadly.

Click the link then immediately go onto airplane mode?

This is confusing.

Have they already forgotten how well Angela's house, Keir's donkey and beers went?

Because he appeals to those who are bitter about feeling hopeless and abandoned who are looking for somewhere to place the blame. As Trump says "I love the poorly educated". So does Nigel with his Goebbels handbook, prancing about in Jaywick, promising hope and friendship. There's an army of the dispossessed in this country. If Nige can unite them, he will. Then we'll all be very sorry indeed. I hope the voters of Clacton see him for what he is and kick his arse back to where it belongs. Elsewhere.

😂

Just seen this gem in the Mirror, I particularly like his suggestion that there could be work coaches and mentors to force people to go to work, still I suppose that could be a job for someone 😬 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/remove-benefits-plan-reform-uk-33048293

Yeah but Trump is a megalomaniac narcissist who just wants people to vote him because he equates it with being loved. I don't think he really be arsed to be president but his desire to be loved, the validation that conferred made it worthwhile.

Farage is a grifter who goes where he's paid to. By people who want to disrupt society. He's a one man band so, unless we overturn current political system and he's made supreme leader of UK, he knows his not going to be prime minister. He's just saying all this for the effect his saying it has.

Looking at Richard Tice and Lee Anderson, they don't seem to be riding high in the public opinion polls. There doesn't seem to be a clamour for other candidates.

Although maybe Farage is planning on being cloned.....

I just wish the media would shut the fuck up talking about him and platforming him. Says more about the boringness of this election until Farage declaration than anything else

I was able to just by clicking.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/17/boss-us-firm-uk-covid-contracts-accused-squandering-millions-on-jets-properties?

The previously little-known Chinese-American businessman’s fortune was transformed by the British taxpayer through 11 government contracts worth approximately £4.3bn for lateral flow tests (LFTs) made in China and sold by Innova. The government fast-tracked the company after its British representatives sent a direct email to Dominic Cummings, the chief adviser to the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, in July 2020. And, a Guardian investigation has found, the fast-tracking of Innova was supported by the then chancellor Rishi Sunak’s team at the Treasury.