Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Meanwhile, in Russia, everything has been burning and exploding since the morning. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports an attack by more than 60 drones
In Slavyansk-on-Kuban (Krasnodar Krai), an oil refinery was hit, and some channels also mentioned explosions near the airfield in Kushchevskaya village. In Vyborg (Leningrad oblast), a fire broke out at an oil depot as well. The governor says it was caused by pyrotechnics.

Ukrainian aviation attacked the Russian military in the Vovchansk central hospital. The occupiers used it as a shelter and a place to accumulate their assault units.

A missile strike on a “secret” Russian air defense base in the temporarily occupied Crimea killed a unit commander.
Russian media reported (https://meduza.io/news/2024/05/17/v-krymu-prostilis-s-pogibshim-pri-raketnoy-atake-podpolkovnikom-po-dannym-astra-on-byl-komandirom-sekretnoy-bazy-pvo) on this.
The burial of the commander, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Kulakov, took place in the city of Alushta. He served in the 3rd Radio Technical Regiment (military unit No. 85683) of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which monitored the airspace over Ukraine.
Kulakov died as a result of a missile attack on May 13, 2024, when Storm Shadow missiles attacked a radio engineering unit on the top of Bedenekyr.
The fact of his death confirms that the attack on the enemy’s air defense base was successful, and that some damage was done to the stationary systems.

Today is 80 years since Soviet authorities began deporting the Crimean Tatars
On the morning of May 18, 1944, the Crimean Tatars were forced out of their homes, loaded like cattle into wagons, and sent thousands of kilometers away from their homeland.
In Russia, you can still hear those who say at the top of their voices and at the official level that the Crimean Tatars “deserved it.”

And of course some of them are Cuban, and Indian, and from various Latin American countries. Some of those "recruits" may actually have known that they were going to be fighting in a war as expendable infantry with poor equipment, too, though I doubt if they all did.

Nepal, and Sri Lanka has just protested to Russia about the hundreds from there being mistreated.

Hadn't heard that. There was a piece about the Cubans on the World Service only this morning.

Putin has put Russia on a permanent war footing
The Russian president has reshuffled his government, integrating the country’s defence and civil economies to turn it into a permanently mobilised state, writes Russia expert Mark Galeotti

archive.ph/2024.05.19-075228/www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-is-preparing-russia-for-a-forever-war-2pkt8bt95

Anyone who thinks he does not intend a permanent war really is refusing to see, I feel.

Yes, but was that the original intention?
Clearly, he cannot take Kyiv and the guerilla would be impossible to deal with. But anything else looks like defeat, so Putin is stuck with permanent war and hoping something turns up? Perhaps?

It's the safest thing for him now, as MG points out in that piece

Not originally. But then he seems to have truly believed that he would occupy Kyiv in no more than a week.

Now he's gearing up for turning Russia into a military state, which is going to be deadly dangerous not only physically but from the hybrid warfare.

The West is either going to have to tighten its stance and fight this hybrid warfare and be prepared to fight militarily, or it's going to not be prepared and end up at war anyway I think.

China should be very very careful how it handles Russia. Russia might be the junior partner now but it's pernicious and good at gaining a great deal of influence.

It's been reported that ATACMS are being used in an anti-ship role and have sunk two so far. It's lovely to see them being put to such good use, and that the Russians don't seem to be having much luck stopping them.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1792231249643212940

Slightly off topic, Georgia looks as though the people aren't happy with appeasement and the new law being past there. I hope Western governments are looking at ways they can support.

If the Iranian president is dead, how will that effect stability in the region? Will it give hope to the protesters? Could a successor move away from Russia?

It’ll make very little difference really on any policy stances. Decisions are taken by the Supreme Leader in Iran, not the President.

Is this Putin’s cunning plan to hide the impoverished state of their economy?

Having just read the article, I wonder if really the biggest worry the West has are cyberattacks? Having fully embraced (and continuing to do so) digitalisation of just about everything, our infrastructure is so vulnerable to attacks.

ps "jointly upholding fairness and justice in the world” is as Orwellian double speak as they come.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military infrastructure and oil refineries in occupied Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Leningrad Oblast on the night of May 18 to 19.
• Russian milbloggers appear to be experimenting with different ways to express critical opinions of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) following the recent appointment of Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev threatened Russian internet technology and telecommunications company Yandex because its large language model failed to provide responses that cohere with ongoing Russian information operations.
• A St. Petersburg court ruled that Russian authorities can seize over 700 million euros ($760 million) of assets from three large European banks on May 18 on behalf of a Gazprom subsidiary.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced within Vovchansk and near Chasiv Yar and Donetsk City.

NATO Chiefs of Defence discuss the strengthening of NATO’s defence planss_

^On 16 May, the NATO Military Committee in Chiefs of Defence Session took place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The 32 Allied Chiefs of Defence focused on the executability of the Alliance’s new defence plans, NATO’s warfighting transformation and NATO’s continued support to Ukraine. The Chiefs of Defence also met in the NATO-Ukraine Council format with the Ukrainian military leadership.
Opening the NATO Military Committee session alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Chair of the Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer stressed that, “NATO is stronger and readier than it has ever been. And it’s growing stronger by the day. We have it within ourselves to build on the ground-breaking work that has already been done. The integration of NATO and national military planning will enable us to do exactly what the NATO flag symbolises: all Allies will follow the same compass.”

The first session focused on warfighting transformation saw the Chiefs of Defence meet with General Philippe Lavigne, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT). This session focused on the future of multi domain operations, the adaptation of NATO’s Command and Control and the NATO Defence Planning Process...^

Cyberattacks and the propaganda. 6 months' delay and the large number of votes against aid to Ukraine, partly because the lies over Zelenskyy's yacht etc, plus seeing how active the trolls and shills are on here, plus the Russian and Chinese corruption of Hungary's leadership, plus the influence of Brexit etc are ice-cold chilling.

Agree with all of that @DucklingSwimmingInstructress politicians and electorate alike are getting worse at recognising propaganda not better the more it goes on. Aided and abetted by ever more sophisticated profiling. Chilling is the word.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine secures stronger positions in Kharkiv Oblast amid Russia's offensive. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-secures-stronger-positions-in-kharkiv-oblast-amid-russias-offensive/

⚡️ Iranian officials, state media confirm President Raisi killed in helicopter crash. https://kyivindependent.com/media-iranian-officials-confirm-president-raisi-killed-in-helicopter-crash/

⚡️Ukraine to receive https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-100-missiles-from-uk-in-may-uk-defense-secretary-says/ 100 missiles from UK in May, UK defense secretary says, also more than 30 pallets of parts, including anti-mine equipment, over a million rounds of small arms ammunition, 20 Viking armored amphibious vehicles, and over 4,000 items of military clothing.

⚡️ Ukraine to introduce power outages https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shutdowns-may-20/ across country late on May 20.
Ukraine will introduce hourly energy shutdowns for industrial and household consumers in all oblasts from 6:00 p.m. local time on May 20 until midnight.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine fights off Russian attack https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-fights-off-russian-attack-near-starytsia-village-in-kharkiv-oblast/ near Starytsia village in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️UPDATED: Russian 'double-tap' strike north of Kharkiv kills 7, including pregnant woman. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-north-of-kharkiv-kills-4-wounds-8/
⚡️Russian strikes near Kupiansk kill 5, injure 9
⚡️Russian forces attack 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 1.
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 12, injure 55 over past day.
⚡️ Governor: Russian attack on Kherson kills 1, injures elderly man.

⚡️Russian media: Oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-oil-refinery-in-russias-slavyansk-suspends-work-after-drone-attack/ damaged after drone attack.
⚡️ Governor: Ukraine strikes Russian base in occupied Luhansk's suburb. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reportedly-strikes-occupied-luhansk/

⚡️West's stance on Ukraine war 'completely nonsensical https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-sec-says-wests-stance-on-ukraine-war-completely-nonsensical/ says UK defense secretary.
The West's current stance on the war in Ukraine and delays in military aid are "completely nonsensical," the U.K's defense secretary said on May 19.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in conjunction with the country's new Unmanned Systems Forces, launched a drone attack on Russia's Kushchevskaya military airbase and Slavyansk oil refinery plant overnight, Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 19. https://kyivindependent.com/media-sbu-drones-strike-airbase-oil-refinery-in-russia/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 20, 2024

■ 5th highest casualties; should reach 500k later this week ■ Massive equipment losses; biggest drone losses of 2024 ■ Loss of minesweeper Project 266M "Kovrovets" confirmed ■ Heavy 🇷🇺 strikes; >1k drone attacks in one da

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱 Poland wants to receive $130 million for the construction of the European “iron dome”
As Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, the country plans to receive the funds as a loan from the European Investment Bank.
He added that the experience of Ukraine and Israel shows that one country cannot independently guarantee the safety of its airspace.

The introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine remains a possibility, as French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to openly suggest. However, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2006-2011) and CIA Director (1991-1993) Robert Gates advised against openly discussing this prospect during an appearance on CBS, as reported by Voice of America.

The French parliament has urged President Emmanuel Macron not to prohibit Ukraine from using French weapons to strike Russian territory, as reported by Le Figaro.

Taking into account Ukraine's experience in the war against the Russian Federation, the Czech army plans to provide each unit with FPV drones — Radio Prague International.

Some NATO countries are already training their military in Ukraine. There is no need to fear that this could involve the Alliance in a war with Russia, said Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas in an interview with the Financial Times.
"I can't imagine that if one of the instructors gets hurt, the countries that sent their people will say, 'This is Article 5. Let's ... bomb Russia.' That's not how it works. This does not happen automatically.'

The Ukrainian women's fencing team won their first team gold at the World Cup in Plovdiv, Bulgaria.

🇱🇻 The head of Latvia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Baiba Braže, ran her first half-marathon to raise funds for drones for Ukraine.
"We have already collected almost 10,000 euros. Let's make a little more effort," she wrote.

The Russians hit a recreation center in the Kharkiv region with a missile, killing a 7-month pregnant woman.
There are a total of 16 known victims, including an 8-year-old child. A police officer and an ambulance paramedic came under repeated fire while providing aid at the scene

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️President Raisi's helicopter 'completely burned down', all passengers 'presumed dead' - Reuters, citing an unnamed Iranian official https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hopes-fade-wreckage-found-helicopter-carrying-iranian-president-raisi-2024-05-20/

The Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea may have destroyed the Russian missile ship Cyclone
Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said that it may have suffered from an attack on May 19, when the 266-M Kovrovets minesweeper was sunk. The data on the Cyclone is still being checked. If the information about its destruction is confirmed, it will mean that Russia has lost its last cruise missile carrier in the Black Sea. [reported yesterday]

5 years ago, on May 20, 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky officially became the President of Ukraine

Russian media reported that Yuvileine, near Luhansk, was hit by Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles. There is also footage from the site of the hit. The Academy of Internal Affairs, where the Russian military is based, was damaged.

May 20 has been declared a Day of Mourning in the Kharkiv oblast
As of now, it is known that Russians killed 11 people in the Kupiansk and Malodanylivka communities during the day.
A pregnant woman is among the dead.

🇮🇷Iranian media publishes the first alleged photos and videos from the crash site of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter

Here's a bit more from Forbes about the renewed attacks on the Russian navy:

In Blowing Up A Russian Minesweeper, Ukraine May Have Revealed A Secret: It Has ATACMS Rockets With 470-Pound Warheads

I had assumed all along that the Ukrainians were getting the variants with the unitary warhead, but it's good to get confirmation. Most of the attacks so far have been against targets like airfields and air defense units where the cluster munitions work better.

@MissConductUS that is great news about dem ATACMS.

Reading this in the link made me happy

"The Kerch Bridge isn’t the Russians’ only supply line into Crimea—there’s also a railroad threading toward the peninsula through Russian-held southern Ukraine. But if Ukraine can interdict the railroad and drop the Kerch Bridge, it could cut off Russian troops in Crimea."

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Austin at Ramstein: US has 'already delivered many of Ukraine's top priority requirements.' https://kyivindependent.com/austin-at-ramstein-russias-new-offensive-in-kharkiv-just-underscores-critical-nature-of-summit/

⚡️Every Western decision is late by a year, says Zelensky. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-western-allies-take-key-decisions-on-military-support-for-ukraine-too-long/
The president described the delivery of aid, particularly badly needed air defense, as "one big step forward, but before that, two steps back."

⚡️UN: Humanitarian aid for Ukraine falling but needed now more than ever. https://kyivindependent.com/un-humanitarian-aid-for-ukraine-falling-but-needed-now-more-than-ever/
n an interview with AFP, Karolina Lindholm Billing, the UNHCR's representative in Ukraine, said there are 4 million displaced people in the country, including "some very, very vulnerable people.

⚡️Modi confirms India's participation https://kyivindependent.com/indian-pm-confirms-indias-participation-in-ukraines-global-peace-summit/ in Ukraine's Global Peace Summit.

⚡️ Kharkiv Oblast official: Ukraine controls around 60% of Vovchansk. https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-oblast-official-ukraine-controls-around-60-of-vovchansk/

⚡️Politico: US considering https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-considering-significant-trade-military-deals-with-georgia-if-it-reverses-democratic-backsliding/ significant trade, military deals with Georgia if it reverses democratic backsliding.
The U.S. is considering a package of military, trade, and visa liberalization incentives for Georgia if it reverses the trend of democratic backsliding and abandons the controversial foreign agents law, Politico reported on May 20, citing a draft bill to be introduced in Congress in the coming days.

⚡️ Russian delegation arrives in North Korea. According to the Russian Embassy in North Korea, the delegation will stay until May 24 and discuss "issues of parliamentary interaction and outline plans for future contacts." https://kyivindependent.com/russian-delegation-arrives-in-north-korea/

⚡️ Politico: US may announce new military aid package https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-may-announce-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-this-week/ for Ukraine this week.

⚡️ Politico: EU, Ukraine push for membership talks https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-and-ukraine-push-for-membership-talks-to-start-june-25/ to start on June 25.

⚡️10 Ukrainian soldiers complete F-16 maintenance training in Netherlands. https://kyivindependent.com/10-ukrainian-soldiers-completed-f-16-maintenance-training-in-netherlands/

Today marks a 5-year anniversary since the inauguration of President Volodymyr Zelensky. His term was set to end on May 20, but it will now continue indefinitely due to Russia's war delaying elections.
Ukraine's President's Office is preparing to weather the storm of critics questioning the president's legitimacy. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-legitimacy/

According to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Polish government signed a contract with the European Investment Bank (EIB) worth 300 million euros (around $326 million) to construct its part of the pan-European air defense. https://kyivindependent.com/tusk-poland-signs-contract-with-european-investment-bank-to-build-iron-dome-over-europe/

⚡️Spain announces https://kyivindependent.com/spain-announces-aid-package-for-ukraine-containing-leopard-tanks-patriot-missiles/ aid package for Ukraine containing Leopard tanks, Patriot missiles.
The new package will contain the second batch of Leopard tanks, 155mm artillery shells, a new shipment of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, anti-drone, optronic surveillance and tracking systems, and remote weapon turrets.

The Dutch government has sent Ukraine 207 YPRs of different types so far. The number of YPRs in the future batch has not been unveiled. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-supply-ukraine-with-additional-ypr-765-armored-vehicles/

⚡️Austria will allocate nearly $5.4 million https://kyivindependent.com/minister-austria-to-allocate-nearly-5-4-million-for-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-restoration/ to Ukraine's energy infrastructure restoration.

⚡️Several countries support Germany's initiative to find air defense https://kyivindependent.com/several-countries-support-germanys-initiative-to-find-air-defense-equipment-for-ukraine/ equipment for Ukraine. The initiative will be funded by Belgium, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands, and Norway.

⚡️9 arrested in Poland over alleged Russian sabotage plot. https://kyivindependent.com/nine-people-arrested-in-poland-over-russian-sabotage-plot/

Ukraine "clearly understands" that Russia's full-scale war will end with negotiations, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko said on May 20, addressing the participants of the Baltic Sea Region Forum. https://kyivindependent.com/security-council-secretary/ This is the reason why Ukraine's peace formula was prepared and is being promoted, according to Lytvynenko.

⚡️ Media: 15-year-old Ukrainian boy stabbed in Germany. https://kyivindependent.com/media-15-year-old-ukrainian-boy-stabbed-in-germany/

⚡️Governor: Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast kills man.
⚡️Russia strikes village in Kherson Oblast, injuring 2
⚡️Russia attacks 14 communities in Sumy Oblast. (
⚡️Russia’s attack on Kharkiv leaves 4 injured.
⚡️ Man injured in Russian May 17 attack on Kharkiv Oblast dies in hospital.

Day after day after day, the losses are huge.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 21, 2024
■ Casualties stay at a high level; expected to reach 500k by the end of this week
■ Massive equipment losses continue; record 7-day losses of vehicles including fuel tanks
■ Heavystrikes; all indicators except air strikes above 7-day average
■ Poternet: +274names added to database; confirmed KIA now close to 76k

Vovchansk

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the coming weeks and months will be critical for Ukraine.
"If Putin wins, tyrants will understand that they can also try to conquer their sovereign neighbors. That is why Ukraine's struggle for freedom and security is important to all Western countries," he said.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin opened the 22nd session of the Ramstein format and stated that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the allies have allocated more than 95 billion dollars for security assistance to Ukraine.

Today's main topic at the Ramstein format meeting is strengthening Ukraine's anti-aircraft defense.
Pentagon head Lloyd Austin stated that Ukraine will receive a steady flow of American aid "week after week." He urged Allies to assist with air defense and noted that they are also addressing the urgent needs of the Armed Forces, including artillery shells and ammunition for HIMARS. The participants are working to "stop Putin's new offensive."

USA does not plan to send its military instructors to Ukraine

President Zelenskyy remains for us the head of state of Ukraine and the person with whom the Secretary-General communicates when he needs to contact the Ukrainian leader, — said the spokesman for the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric.

Ukraine will officially participate in the next Olympics-2024, which will be held in Paris from July 26 to August 11, — a statement on the website of the Ministry of Youth and Sports of Ukraine.

Nine people have been arrested in Poland by the country's special services on suspicion of sabotage committed by Russia, — said the head of the Polish government Donald Tusk on TVN24.
He stressed that the situation is very serious. Not only Poland, but also several other European countries, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Sweden, are in the danger zone.
The Prime Minister noted that Poland is closely cooperating with allies and neighboring countries in this matter, and he is satisfied with the effective work of special services.
Tusk also said that on Tuesday, during the government meeting, he will announce the details of the creation of a commission to investigate Russian influence on Polish politics in recent years. He added that the commission will not be public, but will work intensively behind closed doors.

The United States provided Ukraine with equipment to restore the Kharkiv power grid, said Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.