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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
265
L1ttledrummergirl · 06/06/2024 14:00

It's a shame none of them were able to travel with Zelenski to meet the other leaders in person.

MissConductUS · 06/06/2024 19:02

Since it's the anniversary of D-Day, I thought I'd share this short video done by Andy Rooney, a US Army veteran and TV and radio commenter/presenter. He went ashore on Utah Beach on D-Day plus four and fought the Germans in France. The Germans were still shelling the beaches when he came ashore.

I get a bit emotional when I hear him talk about it and what it means about the people involved.

https://x.com/60Minutes/status/1798713364765684158

Edited to add one of my favorite D-Day stories. General Omar Bradley was heavily involved in the planning for Operation Overlord and served as its field commander, leading from the front. Bradley also commanded the 82nd Airborn Division, and when visiting with the troops on June 5th, one of the paratroopers told him, "Stop worrying, General. We'll take care of this for you." And they did, at great cost.

x.com

https://x.com/60Minutes/status/1798713364765684158

blueshoes · 06/06/2024 23:53

@MissConductUS thanks for sharing the video. I shed a tear or two.

blueshoes · 07/06/2024 00:01

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • US officials continue to attempt to clarify US policy regarding Ukraine's ability to strike a limited subset of Russian military targets within Russia with US-provided weapons, but public communications about US policy remain unclear.
  • Western-provided artillery ammunition has reportedly started arriving to Ukrainian forces on the frontline, although not at a scale that would allow Ukrainian forces to fully challenge the Russian military's current artillery shell advantage.
  • Russian missile and drone strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will reportedly face even greater energy constraints in summer 2024.
  • Ukrainian outlet Liga reported on June 4 that a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that there are roughly 550,000 Russian military and paramilitary personnel concentrated in occupied Ukraine and near the international border.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 4 that former Russian Defense Minister and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu will coordinate efforts to increase Russian defense industrial capacity alongside former Tula Oblast Governor and Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin and Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev.
  • The apparent demotion of former First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council and United Russia Secretary Andrei Turchak on June 4 is likely part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to remove from power the political and military figures that violated his trust in 2023.
  • A recent meeting of the Kremlin-appointed Russian Human Rights Council (HRC) on Russia's migration policy reflects Russia's competing imperatives of attracting migrants to offset Russian labor shortages while also catering to its ultranationalist anti-migrant constituency.
  • Chechen Republic Rosgvardia Head and Russian State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov accused State Duma Deputy Chairman and New People Party Head Vladislav Davankov of contradicting the Russian Constitution and attempting to divide Russian society, exposing continued tension between Chechen efforts to operate autonomously and the Russian state’s efforts to regulate perceived Islamic extremist threats from migrant and indigenous Muslim communities.
  • Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom reportedly assesses that it is unlikely to recover gas sales it lost following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, illustrating how Western sanctions are achieving some long-term impacts against Russian revenue streams supporting Russia's war effort.
  • Russian investigative outlet the Insider and Moldovan outlet Little Country published an investigation on June 5 detailing how former Moldovan Chief of the General Staff Igor Gorgan operated as an agent on behalf of the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU).
  • Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, near Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • The Kremlin likely authorized the Crimean branch of the Kremlin-created "Defenders of Fatherland" state fund to help grant combatants in Russian private military companies (PMCs) legal veteran statuses, possibly as part of an ongoing state effort to centralize control over irregular formations operating in Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
blueshoes · 07/06/2024 11:14

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to repackage longstanding, tired threats about direct confrontation with the West by claiming that Russian will provide long-range strike capabilities to unspecified actors for strikes against the West. Putin's threat aims to influence Western decision-making about Ukraine's ability to strike military targets within Russia using Western-provided weapons but notably does not threaten escalation in Ukraine or through direct confrontation, suggesting that the Kremlin may be adjusting to select Western perceptions about the credibility of such Russian threats.
  • Russian naval vessels will make a port call in Cuba on June 12–17, likely as part of a larger effort to invoke the historical memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis as part of Russia’s reflexive control campaign to encourage US self-deterrence.
  • Putin inadvertently indicated on June 5 that Russian forces may be suffering roughly 20,000 monthly casualties in Ukraine, which, if accurate, would be roughly equal to or just below the number of new personnel that Russia reportedly generates per month.
  • Limitations on Western capabilities to train partner pilots on F-16 fighter jets are reportedly creating bottlenecks that will affect Ukraine's ability to effectively field F-16s in the future.
  • French authorities are investigating multiple recent pro-Russian sabotage and societal influence operations in France amid continued Russian hybrid war measures against NATO states and France aimed at weakening support for Ukraine.
  • The Russian Investigative Committee announced the arrest of a French citizen on June 6 following the early June arrest in France.
  • Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and reportedly struck an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast on the night of June 5 to 6.
  • Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Committee on Human Rights, Deoccupation, and Reintegration Deputy Chairperson Ruslan Horbenko estimated that the Ukrainian military will recruit roughly 120,000 personnel in 2024, although the apparent slow arrival of Western security assistance will likely limit Ukraine's ability to sufficiently provision and equip these forces at scale in the near-term.
  • Russian and Taliban officials expressed interest in bilateral cooperation, indicating that Russia will likely soon delist the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia.
  • Russian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, southeast of Kupyansk, northeast of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, south of Velyka Novosilka, and near Krynky.
  • Russia's continued demographic crisis will present long-term constraints on human capital within Russia.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/06/2024 13:16

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Ukraine to receive https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-ratifies-eu-ukraine-facility-framework-agreement/ more than $17 billion through EU Ukraine Facility in 2024, Shmyhal says.

Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, ratified on June 6 the terms for which Kyiv will receive 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in macro-finance support from the EU until 2027, known as the Ukraine Facility. https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-ratifies-eu-ukraine-facility-framework-agreement/

⚑️ France to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-transfer-mirage-2000-5-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine, Macron announces.
Speaking to French TV after the end of the 80th anniversary of D-Day commemorations in Normandy, French President Emmanuel Macron also said his country would train Ukrainian pilots. @notimagain

⚑️AP: US to announce https://kyivindependent.com/ap-us-to-announce-225-million-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-including-himars-rockets/ $225 million military aid package to Ukraine, including HIMARS rockets.

⚑️ FT: EU pushing https://kyivindependent.com/eu-pushing-to-start-ukraine-accession-talks/ to start Ukraine accession talks before Hungary assumes bloc presidency in weeks.

⚑️ European Commission says Ukraine ready to start accession talks. https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-says-ukraine-ready-to-start-accession-talks/

Belarus Weekly: Hungarian FM visits Minsk, signs nuclear energy agreement https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-hungarian-fm-visits-minsk-signs-nuclear-energy-agreement/

⚑️'We're not authorizing https://kyivindependent.com/biden-us-not-authorizing-strikes-on-moscow/ strikes on Moscow,' Biden says on Ukraine's use of US arms

Russian warships are being tracked on their way to the Caribbean, U.S. officials said on June 5, adding they had not been notified in advance by the Kremlin of the military activity.https://kyivindependent.com/russian-warships-heading-for-carribbean-exercises-us-not-notified/

⚑️ Dutch political parties' websites attacked https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-political-parties-hit-by-hacking-attack-on-day-of-european-election/ on EU election day, Russian hacking group claims responsibility.

⚑️ Ukraine's military intelligence disputes POW figures https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-disputes-pow-figures-given-by-putin/ given by Putin. Putin claimed during a meeting with the world's leading news agencies on June 5 that there are around 1,348 Russians in Ukrainian captivity and 6,465 Ukrainian soldiers in Russian captivity. These numbers do not correspond to reality, especially when it comes to the number of Russian POWs, Yusov told Liga but said that Ukraine would not disclose the real figure.

Russian forces are using multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) equipped with thermobaric munitions in attacks on the Donetsk Oblast town of Chasiv Yar, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia group of forces, said on national television on June 6. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-forces-using-thermobaric-munitions-in-attacks-on-chasiv-yar/

⚑️ Germany procures thousands more artillery shells https://kyivindependent.com/germany-procures-more-artillery-shells-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine and to replenish its own stocks.

⚑️ Budapest not planning https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-does-not-plan-to-lift-ban-on-ukrainian-grain-import-hungarian-fm-says/ to lift ban on Ukrainian grain import, Hungarian FM says

The international monetary reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) declined by 7.9% in May, resulting in a total of around $39 billion at the beginning of June, the NBU said on June 6. The reserves at the beginning of May 2024 stood at $42.4 billion. https://kyivindependent.com/international-reserves-declined-by-almost-8-in-may-national-bank-says/

Taiwan's Ministry of Economy has decided to expand sanctions against Russia and Belarus by prohibiting the export of nitrocellulose, a crucial component used in projectile production.https://kyivindependent.com/taiwan-prohibits-export-of-essential-component-for-shells-to-russia-and-belarus/

⚑️US imposes 'first tranche' https://kyivindependent.com/us-imposes-first-tranche-of-sanctions-against-georgian-officials/ of sanctions against Georgian officials.

⚑️Energy situation to temporarily improve once nuclear power unit ready https://kyivindependent.com/situation-with-energy-system-to-improve-slightly-once-additional-nuclear-power-station-unit-is-ready-ukrenergo-says/, Ukrenergo says.

The Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine may soon be formed into a new federal district, the state-run media outlet RIA Novosti reported on June 6, citing Yevhen Balytskyi, a Russian proxy leader operating in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-in-ukraine-claims-occupied-territories-may-be-incorporated-into-new-russian-federal-district/

⚑️ Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was aware of Russia's intention to reduce gas supply to blackmail Europe to speed up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline launch but concealed the information, German media outlet Handelsblatt reported on June 6, citing classified documents it had obtained.https://kyivindependent.com/handelsblatt-merkel-russia-gas/

⚑️ Polish protesters lift blockade https://kyivindependent.com/polish-protesters-lift-blockade-at-a-ukraine-border-crossing/ at a Ukraine border crossing.

⚑️Polish border guard dies https://kyivindependent.com/polish-border-guard-dies-after-being-wounded-in-attack-on-belarusian-border/ after being wounded in attack on Belarusian border.

⚑️ Russia claims Ukrainian missile strike on occupied Luhansk, partisans say oil depot hit.

⚑️Russia attacks 5 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚑️Russian attacks on Nikopol district injure 2 women.
⚑️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, injure 9 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

  • JUN 7, 2024

β–  Casualties & engagements below 7-day average but casualties stay above 1k
β–  Another record 7-day landbased equipment & artillery losses
β–  Fewer strikes on both sides; unfavorable strike ratio
β–  Considerable πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί shelling

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MissConductUS · 07/06/2024 13:25

Here are two items in the news that caught my eye. Russia has deep and likely well founded concerns that China is not really its friend.

Leaked Russian Documents Reveal Deep Concern Over Chinese Aggression

As I recall, a treaty signed between Russia and China in the 1800s gave Russia control of Vladivostok and other areas that China sees as historically its own, and China is still resentful of it. Given the greatly diminished state of the Russian Army, now would be quite a good time for China to reclaim that territory.

I also saw this in the WSJ:

Putin’s Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians - Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse

Goodness, I wonder why no one wants to emigrate to Russia.

Leaked Russian Documents Reveal Deep Concern Over Chinese Aggression

With a new glimpse at Russian war planning, the West is starting to get a better understanding of just how much Russia fears a resurgent China

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2024/02/29/leaked-russian-documents-reveal-deep-concern-over-chinese-aggression/?sh=45e03b6b19b0

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/06/2024 13:41

The Vladivostok issue is not quite asleep, either. A few months after the invasion, a new Chinese children's textbook named Vladivostok by the old Chinese name and it seems that it might not have been carelessness.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/06/2024 13:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The media have revealed when the new European Parliament will elect the head of the European Commission.
The election of the head of the European Commission in the European Parliament, for which voting is currently underway, is tentatively scheduled for July 18.

❗️Joe Biden announces new $225 million arms package for Ukraine, β€” CNN correspondent.
The package will include:
▫️ ammunition for HIMARS;
▫️ mortar systems and artillery shells;
▫️ missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
▫️ Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
▫️ Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank missiles;
▫️ 155-mm howitzers;
▫️ armored vehicles and patrol boats;
▫️ explosives and additional spare parts.

Major London hospitals have been targeted by ransomware attacks by Russian hackers. The criminals hacked into the IT systems responsible for reporting on patient tests, the Independent reports. [as mentioned a few pages ago]
Highly ranked sources in the hospitals describe the situation as a β€œcatastrophe”. Staff are forced to write down patient test results on paper and manually transmit the results to emergency services.
Hospitals canceled or postponed non-urgent surgeries and procedures, and general practitioners were ordered to cancel all non-emergency blood tests.
Several senior National Health Service sources warned that it could take months to fully recover from the attack.

πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅Japan handed over a batch of 101 PC-065B and Toyota HMV vehicles for the needs of the Armed Forces

NATO is planning to expand cooperation with Ukraine on defense technology and share more intelligence about Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities, β€” Bloomberg.
David van Weel, NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, stated that the war in Ukraine has pushed NATO to devote more resources to cybersecurity and tracking Russian military technology.
One of the program's goals is to help make Ukraine a large-scale tech provider once the war ends.

In light of predictions of a possible Russian attack on NATO, the German government has updated the Cold War-era "Total Defense Framework Directive," which defines security measures in the event of aggression.
In the event of an attack on Germany, the federal government must immediately announce it on the radio and the Internet. The Bundestag cannot be dissolved until the end of the aggression, the authorities will use "special technologies" to exchange secret information, and the mass media must inform the population of important news "without delay".
Under these conditions, conscription will be reinstated in Germany. Everyone over the age of 18 will be required to work, and they may be required to work on weekends and holidays.

How the Mirage 2000 can be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
The main and only rational role of the Mirage 2000 for Ukraine is the launch of long-range Scalp cruise missiles or similar Storm Shadow missiles at targets in the Russian rear. According to experts, the aircraft was specially "sharpened" for them.
American F-16s are not adapted to these missiles.
The Mirage 2000 can also drop AASM guided air bombs. The range of these bombs is up to 60-70 km, and the warhead is 125, 250, 500 and 1000 kg.
Macron announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5, a modernized export version, to Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces intend to conduct exercises in the Caribbean, Reuters reports, citing a source.
The White House does not see this as a threat since Russia has conducted similar exercises from 2013 to 2020.

Macron offered Biden to send military instructors to Ukraine, but he refused, β€” Politico.
The article notes that it was Macron who pushed for coalition troops to be sent to Ukraine to train soldiers, long before any consensus was reached on such a move.

The French-German KNDS manufacturer of the Caesar air defense system has announced the establishment of a subsidiary in Ukraine.
Representatives of KNDS and the Ukrainian company ENMEK signed two declarations of intent, one of which concerns the establishment of a Caesar UAV maintenance center and the other - 3D printing of spare parts.
In addition, a contract was formalized on the transfer of licensed production of 155 mm caliber shells to Ukraine.

An unknown person stabbed to death propagandist Anton Egovtsev in the Moscow region
He was the deputy chairman of the Call of the People organization and wrote denunciations against Russian celebrities and public figures who, in his opinion, were not patriotic enough or had an anti-war position.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/06/2024 14:01

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

German Minister of Defense: β€œRussian victory would ultimately cost us all more than our current support for Ukraine.”

Putin at the St. Petersburg Forum in 2024: β€œRussia has no plans to attack NATO, it would be nonsense”.
Putin at the Russia Calling Forum in 2019: β€œRussia has no plans to attack anyone, it would be nonsense”.
Make your own conclusions. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21623

UN on the anniversary of the Russian bombing of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
Edemummy · 07/06/2024 16:29

minsmum · 06/06/2024 21:19

https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1798741559279829368 Zelensky meets one of the X-ray veterans

Have you heard of when Zelensky brought a real time war Nazi to Canada as veteran to honour him? Look it up. Genuinely, what are your thoughts on that?

prettybird · 07/06/2024 16:39

This was claimed - and refuted - a long time ago on these threads. Hmm

The Nazi was invited by the speaker of the Canadian Parliament who didn't inform either the government or the Ukrainian delegation. He resigned as a result.

Look it up. Genuinely, what are your thoughts on that? Confused

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1201951754/canadas-house-speaker-steps-down-after-inviting-nazi-veteran-parliament

Time for a donation Smile

WinterMorn · 07/06/2024 16:41

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 16:29

Have you heard of when Zelensky brought a real time war Nazi to Canada as veteran to honour him? Look it up. Genuinely, what are your thoughts on that?

Oh please. You will have to do better than that tired old story, which you have also described incorrectly.

prettybird · 07/06/2024 16:45

I somehow doubt that he or she will be back to justify what he or she wrote - let alone apologise for the libel Hmm

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/06/2024 16:57

This is getting expensive πŸ™„

MissConductUS · 07/06/2024 16:59

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 16:29

Have you heard of when Zelensky brought a real time war Nazi to Canada as veteran to honour him? Look it up. Genuinely, what are your thoughts on that?

Surely you can do better than that.

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:18

Ok I was not aware of that, but I have looked it up, my genuine thoughts? They found a scape goat. The Canadian government have decided not to unseal the records as to what exactly happened and Anthony Rota is still in government, now serving as an MP. Not really a punishment, he hasn't resigned full stop, he changed positions in government.

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:22

prettybird · 07/06/2024 16:45

I somehow doubt that he or she will be back to justify what he or she wrote - let alone apologise for the libel Hmm

Talking about libel! I am glad you asked. Do you remember when Ukraine launched missiles into Poland and killed some people, and have started blaming Russia on it straight away? Until Sunak and Treaudau called Zelensky and said that he needs to stop lying, on this occasion. He then admitted the lies.
Has he ever apologised for libel?
Or that time when Ukrainian army had attacked Luhansk and killed piles of civilians (July 2014), and blamed it on rebels in the area, have they even accepted the responsibility, let alone apologise for libel that triggered this whole mess the world now in?

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:23

Sorry, I thought this was a thread where people want to get to the bottom of things and try to make sense of things, not a Ukraine fan page.

blueshoes · 07/06/2024 17:28

@Edemummy is that your best?

For balance, how about giving us your list of misdemeanors of the Russian state starting from 2014.

blueshoes · 07/06/2024 17:30

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:18

Ok I was not aware of that, but I have looked it up, my genuine thoughts? They found a scape goat. The Canadian government have decided not to unseal the records as to what exactly happened and Anthony Rota is still in government, now serving as an MP. Not really a punishment, he hasn't resigned full stop, he changed positions in government.

What has this got to do with the price of fish?

WinterMorn · 07/06/2024 17:31

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:23

Sorry, I thought this was a thread where people want to get to the bottom of things and try to make sense of things, not a Ukraine fan page.

Don’t even TRY to pretend you are here to get to the bottom of things. You are here to spread disinformation, tell lies and promote Russian propaganda. Go away, you horrible, pathetic individual.

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:33

blueshoes · 07/06/2024 17:28

@Edemummy is that your best?

For balance, how about giving us your list of misdemeanors of the Russian state starting from 2014.

For balance? Click on any news channel. My post has provided an attempt to a balance.

Edemummy · 07/06/2024 17:34

Wintermorn which bit of what I have said is a lie?

This thread prevents users from posting on it until they have been members for at least 14 days.

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