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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
265
blueshoes · 01/06/2024 17:43

@MMBaranova I am so sorry for your loss and to have it confirmed.Flowers

blueshoes · 01/06/2024 17:49

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • US and German officials confirmed that the United States and Germany have changed their policies to allow Ukraine to use US- and German-provided weapons to strike Russian territory with some restrictions but did not offer precise details about these restrictions.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against a Russian long-range radar system in occupied Crimea and an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on May 31 following the May 30 Ukrainian strike against the Kerch Strait ferry crossing.
  • Ukraine signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Sweden, Iceland, and Norway on May 31.
  • Russia's continued efforts to rally Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member countries around an imagined confrontation with the West likely stems from Russian concerns about the CSTO's longevity as a vector for Russian influence.
  • Although Russian forces made significant tactical gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast in early May 2024, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov heavily overestimated Russian advances in Ukraine since the start of 2024.
  • Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on May 31, the first POW exchange since February 8.
  • The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced on May 31 that it will not join the June 2024 Ukraine peace summit.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  • Russian State Duma Information Policy Committee Chairperson Alexander Khinshtein announced on May 30 that he and Duma Security Committee Chairperson Vasily Piskarev submitted a bill for the Duma's consideration that would eliminate toll fees for Russian military, Rosgvardia, and Federal Security Service (FSB) vehicles.
MissConductUS · 01/06/2024 22:21

Ukraine has fired US-supplied GMLRS/HIMARS missiles on Russian targets in Belgorod. The EW environment must be permissive, likely because the Russians never anticipated needed EW assets to protect targets on Russian territory.

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1796897396351209599

x.com

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1796897396351209599

blueshoes · 01/06/2024 22:34

MissConductUS · 01/06/2024 22:21

Ukraine has fired US-supplied GMLRS/HIMARS missiles on Russian targets in Belgorod. The EW environment must be permissive, likely because the Russians never anticipated needed EW assets to protect targets on Russian territory.

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1796897396351209599

So quick. This is the northern border of Kharkiv where Ukraine has just be given permission by US to use US weapons to strike, right? I thought it would take longer for Ukraine to get the weapons to the front.

I hope Ukraine goes hell for leather now. πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™πŸ’™πŸ’›

KindHare · 01/06/2024 23:51

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ for breaking our Talk Guidelines.

OP posts:
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 10:27

Hello @KindHare and Yeah they've pummelled Ukraine's energy grid into smithereens. Zelensky says they need 7 Patriots to cover the country .. not sure how many they have. I think about 3 or 4 have been supplied but no idea if any have been destroyed.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 10:36

er --- I need to start a thread on Site Stuff for a technical issue but there doesn't seem to be a ' start new thread' option any more. Has anyone else got this problem?

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 02/06/2024 10:38

I still have a "start new thread" at the top right in Site Stuff.

If it isn't there for you, can you email them?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 10:41

Ill have to yeah. There's a few glitches at the moment. Got a new PC but the problems are appearing on the mobile too.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 11:37

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ Zelensky accuses China https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-accuses-china-of-working-hard-to-stop-countries-attending-global-peace-summit/ of 'working hard' to stop countries attending global peace summit. [The Kyiv Independent released this comment after the Singapore conference]

⚑️ Zelensky arrived in Singapore for security conference. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-singapore-for-security-conference/
"In Singapore, I will address the conference and hold a number of meetings, particularly with Singapore’s President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Timor-Leste's President Jose Ramos-Horta, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Singaporean investors," Zelensky said on X.

⚑️ Georgia's opposition party says up to 100 masked men attacked its Tbilisi office. https://kyivindependent.com/saakashvilis-party-says-masked-men-attacked-its-tbilisi-office/

⚑️Governor: Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, the Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in critical state https://kyivindependent.com/governor-ukraines-largest-hydroelectric-power-plant-in-critical-state-following-russian-strike/ following Russian strike, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov said on national television.

⚑️Romania considers supplying Ukraine with Patriot https://kyivindependent.com/romania-considers-supplying-ukraine-with-patriot-system-romanian-pm-says/ systems, Romanian PM says. However, President Klaus Iohannis clarified that such a decision would require an approval from an autonomous administrative authority responsible for coordinating national defense and security activities.

⚑️Defense Ministry: Ukraine destroys https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-destroys-record-number-of-russian-artillery-systems-in-may/ record number of Russian artillery systems in May.
Ukrainian forces destroyed 1,160 Russian artillery systems in May. According to a graph posted by the ministry on X, the previous highest number of destroyed Russian artillery pieces β€” 976 β€” was recorded in March.

⚑️ Russian troop losses hit record high https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troop-losses-hit-record-monthly-high-in-may-ukraine-claims/ in May, Ukraine claims. They amounted to 38,940, the highest monthly figure since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on June 1.

⚑️The Telegraph: MI5 to shifts focus to counter-espionage amid rising Russia, China threats https://kyivindependent.com/the-telegraph-mi5-to-shifts-focus-to-counter-espionage-amid-rising-russia-china-threats/
The United Kingdom's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency Mi5 has been ordered to prioritize targeting spies over terrorists due to a significant recruitment drive by Russia, China, and Iran.

⚑️Biden's reversal on Ukraine's weapons restrictions is 'half-measure' , https://kyivindependent.com/bidens-reversal-on-ukraines-weapons-restrictions-is-half-measure-us-congressmen-say/ US congressmen say.
A group of Republican congressmen released a letter on May 31 criticizing U.S. President Joe Biden's reluctance to fully lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons against Russian territory.

Nearly 100% of drones Ukraine’s Armed Forces use in Russia’s war are developed domestically, Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov said on June 1. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-domestically-develops-nearly-all-of-its-drones/

Massive forest fires have engulfed more than 3,700 hectares (9,140 acres) of forest in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said on June 1. https://kyivindependent.com/more-than-9-000-acres-of-forest-engulfed-in-flames-in-kharkiv-oblast-state-emergency-service-says/

⚑️Russian court softens restrictions https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-softens-restrictions-on-italys-unicredit-bank/ on Italy's UniCredit bank.
A court in Saint Petersburg ruled on May 31 to ease restrictions imposed on Italy's UniCredit bank as part of a lawsuit.
In mid-May the St. Petersburg Arbitration Court ruled that 462.7 million euros ($503 million) of the bank's assets be seized. On May 31, the court said that UniCredit could offer Russian sovereign bond holdings instead of assets to satisfy the seizure order.

⚑️ Russian deputy district head https://kyivindependent.com/russian-deputy-district-head-killed-while-inspecting-unexploded-bomb-local-official-says/ killed while inspecting unexploded bomb, local official claims.

βš‘οΈβ€˜A ceasefire is a trap:’ Forcing Ukraine to compromise with Russia would weaken US https://kyivindependent.com/ceasefire-is-a-trap-forcing-ukraine-to-compromise-with-russia-to-weaken-us-with-loser-president-outcome-zelensky-warns-trump/ Zelensky warns Trump.

⚑️Russian glide bomb strike in Donetsk Oblast injures at least 5.
⚑️Update: Death toll of Russia's May 31 attack on Kharkiv rises to 9.
⚑️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

  • JUN 2, 2024
β–  Casualties stay above 1k β–  Most landbased equipment losses in close to 2 months β–  Most drones downed in 2024 & 38 missiles intercepted β–  Strikes up between days, improved strike ratio β–  KIU: +32 dead officers
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 12:42

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

China has become the largest supplier of weapons to African countries, surpassing the Russian Federation, according to The Economist.
The publication reports that Russian arms supplies have decreased by 44% over the past five years, while China is aggressively filling this void. Chinese weapon sales are reportedly driven by low prices and a lack of scruples.
"Beijing sells weapons at reduced prices. Combined with sales on credit, military cooperation, and officer training, this is an attractive offer for armies with any budget," the article states.
The publication notes that China's interest is more political than economic, as this approach strengthens the PRC's strategic influence in Africa.

Ukraine currently lacks strong contacts with China, as the Chinese side is not interested, said President Zelenskyy at the "Dialogue Shangri-La" conference in Singapore.

"We can no longer be in a situation where a $10,000 drone destroys a $10,000 tank, or a $3.5 million missile destroys a $10,000 UAV. This is one of the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian war," said Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the NATO Military Committee.
"We can't continue to do this financially. We need other solutions than what we have. We need to balance the number of high-quality, very expensive weapons we have in favor of cheaper weapons for less valuable targets. However, if a drone can destroy very expensive weapons systems, this does not mean that we no longer need these systems," he said at the Shangri-La Dialogue conference.

EU countries are considering imposing import duties on certain Russian goods that are currently imported without restrictions, according to the Financial Times.
Goods that may be subject to tariffs include food, nuclear fuel, and medicines worth up to 42 billion euros. Sweden proposed this measure to limit Russia's income and to direct the collected duties to help Ukraine. EU trade ministers have requested the European Commission to develop a plan for these tariffs.
"Sweden has initiated a discussion on the wider application of tariffs on imports from Russia. We will conduct an assessment and inform the members of the union about possible further actions," said European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.
Dombrovskis added that tariffs would prevent Russia from destabilizing the European market by redirecting its grain supplies and would stop Russia from using revenues from exports to the EU to finance its aggression against Ukraine.

Belgium does not permit Ukraine to use its weapons to strike Russia, stated Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

Estonia allocates more than 1% of its GDP to support Ukraine. If every NATO country did this, Ukraine would win, said Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in an interview with BBC News.

The Clooney Foundation for Justice will organize a "hunt" for Russian propagandists, aiming to hold them accountable for their role in Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine.
Anna Neistat, human rights activist and project officer of the Foundation, noted that many propagandists like to travel in Europe, have residence permits, and own property in various countries. These individuals can be arrested in Europol member states based on warrants for crimes related to incitement to hatred and the promotion of aggressive war.

https://t.me/United24media/22359 Kyiv is saying goodbye to the fallen combat paramedic Iryna "Cheka" Tsybukh

UNITED24Media

Kyiv is saying goodbye to the fallen combat paramedic Iryna "Cheka" Tsybukh

https://t.me/United24media/22359

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 13:12

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

China discourages other countries from going to the Peace Summit - Zelensky
β€œRussia today is traveling to many countries of the world, threatening to blockade food, agricultural products or chemicals, energy prices, or simply putting pressure on other countries of the world not to attend the summit,” - the President said.
He compared the positions of the United States and China on the Peace Summit and emphasized that China is working to disrupt it.

Vovchansk is 70% under the control of the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported.
On the morning of May 10, Russian forces launched an offensive in the Kharkiv Oblast along the Ukrainian-Russian border. They managed to capture several villages, and the battle for Vovchansk is still ongoing.

An oil refinery is on fire in the Komi Republic, Russia
One of the tanks at the Lukoil-Ukhtaneftepererabotka plant caught fire in the city of Ukhta. According to local media, the fire was preceded by the sound of an explosion. Later smoke was seen. Russian Telegram channels report three injured and two dead. Details are being clarified.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡¦πŸ‡·Ukraine wants to agree with Argentina on defense-industrial cooperation - the government is already working on it, Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with La Nacion. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/zelensky-dijo-que-la-argentina-y-ucrania-trabajan-para-desarrollar-una-industria-conjunta-de-armas-y-nid30052024/

Russians targeted a kindergarten in Myrnohrad with bombs yesterday evening.
Five people were injured, according to the National Police.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
KindHare · 02/06/2024 14:43

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

blueshoes · 02/06/2024 17:08

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces conducted a large-scale drone and missile strike mainly targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 31 to June 1.
  • The current lack of clarity about US restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian territory misses an opportunity to deter further Russian offensive efforts across the border into northern Ukraine.
  • Individual Western governments are stipulating disparate policies about Ukraine's future use of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that some Ukrainian reserve brigades remain understrength and stated that the slow arrival of US security assistance is complicating Ukrainian efforts to effectively commit reserves to ongoing defensive operations.
  • Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
  • The Russian Ministry of Justice designated the "Way Home" social movement, a movement of relatives of mobilized Russian servicemembers that has been calling for their relatives' demobilization, as a "foreign agent" on June 1.
^^
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 17:16

You know, it's a curious thing why that troll wants to be on this thread so desperately. Most people tend not to push in where they are so very, very clearly unwanted

MagicFox · 02/06/2024 17:24

Re China and its surreptitious disruption/ importance in the whole thing see that Lawrence Freedman piece I posted earlier

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 02/06/2024 17:40

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 17:16

You know, it's a curious thing why that troll wants to be on this thread so desperately. Most people tend not to push in where they are so very, very clearly unwanted

I expect the troll has its reasons that reason does not know.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 18:29

I suppose so!

notimagain · 02/06/2024 18:45

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 10:27

Hello @KindHare and Yeah they've pummelled Ukraine's energy grid into smithereens. Zelensky says they need 7 Patriots to cover the country .. not sure how many they have. I think about 3 or 4 have been supplied but no idea if any have been destroyed.

I’m not sure what Z means by that…..7 batteries might, just, give you almost total radar coverage (haven’t drawn circles on maps so can’t swear to it)but I’d put money on 7 not giving the ability to engage everything inbound to any target anywhere in Ukraine.

OTOH 7 batteries, suitably located, might allow you to provide a very high percentage of the population living in the major conurbations.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 18:49

I think he's trying not to ask for too much, specially on a giant ask like this.

MissConductUS · 02/06/2024 19:03

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 18:49

I think he's trying not to ask for too much, specially on a giant ask like this.

He originally said he needed more than 20, but would settle for seven.

I’m thrilled the Russians have sacked Popov. He was one of their best commanders. Thank God for stupid enemies.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/06/2024 19:21

yes, good news that isn't it

blueshoes · 02/06/2024 19:55

Don't interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake πŸ˜‡

ThisMintFish · 02/06/2024 20:57

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