Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🪖The case opened https://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/119107958** against the command of 125th Brigade for abandoning positions in Kharkiv oblast
According to the State Bureau of Investigation, the command of the 125th Brigade, 415th separate infantry battalion, 23rd mechanized brigade, 172nd separate infantry, and other units failed to properly organize the defense of positions on the border of Kharkiv region and the Russian Federation, which led to the loss of positions, military equipment, and personnel.
A military expertise was appointed to investigate.

It took over 16 hours to extinguish the fire at the Epicenter in Kharkiv, as the fire spread to 13,000 square meters. The fire has now been completely extinguished.

Igor Sikorsky, Father of Helicopter Industry, was born on this day, 135 years ago in Kyiv

My mind is still in the nostalgic period of early 2000s when I was studying. 😅

Oh, simpler times. Well, aside from 2001’s fallout…

Yeah things were much better than, post 90s recession, education system at its peak. Now the right wing are trying to destroy it all, might as well still be in the UK.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
• The likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians.
• Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities reportedly impacted the effectiveness of select Western weapon systems in Ukraine in 2023 as Ukraine and Russia continue to compete in a technical offense-defense race.
• Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov categorically rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy and outlined Russia's maximalist conditions for peace negotiations during an interview with Newsweek on May 25.
• Russia is likely helping North Korea develop its defense industrial base (DIB) in exchange for North Korean munitions supplies, and US officials reportedly assess that Russia may also be supplying North Korea with military equipment, weapons, or technology.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has cancelled its annual "Army Games" international competition for the second year in a row, prompting celebration among critical Russian ultranationalist milbloggers.

Interesting article on Britain guarding some of the transit points for the aid to Ukraine

https://ukrainetoday.org/great-britain-is-secretly-arming-ukraine-sometimes-even-contraband-the-sunday-times/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky

In the UK the best thing they could do would be to sort out the recruitment process. It really dragged out for me (must've been a decade ago now) so I gave up in the end.

This makes me so proud of the UK 🇬🇧🇺🇦

I've said this before, but ds2 reapplied following his medical discharge and withdrew his application after at least 18months (might have been longer, it was a while ago now and I forget the timeline).

It was a shocking experience.

It’s been a problem for years, even when I considered by going into the CIO in Preston in 2005. Waited at least six months and nothing.

https://www.forces.net/services/army/damning-figures-uk-military-recruitment-54-giving-process-last-year

Here’s some more “bollocks” for @L1ttledrummergirl to complain about.

I remember reading about that on a prior thread and being gobsmacked when I looked into it. The recruitment process is fully outsourced to a contractor. How can someone talk to a recruit about military life if they've never served in the military? It's madness. And it can take over a year to get a decision, which is also insane. When someone is ready to join, they're ready, and if you mess them about, they'll find something else to do.

In the US Army, recruiting is done by an active-duty non-commissioned officer who has received specialized training, and the process typically takes a week or two. If you're accepted after the medical and psychological testing, you take your oath and are put on leave until you start basic training, which is usually less than a month out.

I remember reading about that on a prior thread and being gobsmacked when I looked into it. The recruitment process is fully outsourced to a contractor. How can someone talk to a recruit about military life if they've never served in the military? It's madness.

It is but it’s UK PLC…..Neve mind the quality, get as much as possible off HMG books by outsourcing to the private sector, and then claim it gives you a more efficient/agile/flexible system than could ever be provided by using crusty old NCOs sat in recruiting offices who actually knew what they were talking about.

It’s the same reason the pilot training system is in disarray and it’s taking something like 6-7 years to get someone from off the streets to combat ready on a fast jet…used to take about 3 years when the system was fully in house military.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/afvlle/private_eye_the_capita_contract_with_the_mod_for/?rdt=55259

That piece from Private Eye is enlightening. This is Belonging? 😃

I had to laugh at "crusty old NCOs". Half of their job is deciding if the Army wants the recruit, not vice versa. I guess crusty is fair for some of them.

West Point held graduation ceremonies yesterday. I couldn't get tickets to attend because security was so tight, and the President was present. These young men and women will go on to do great things for the Army and our country.

https://twitter.com/WestPointUSMA

I am not sure how much the recruitment process in other countries has to do with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia?

Well the size of NATOs standing forces and their readiness/ability to counter Russian influence may well be a factor in why Russia feels it can behave as it does in Ukraine and elsewhere….

I promise not to even go vaguely off topic again…

100%

I’d say it’s perfectly on topic 🤷‍♀️

I simply don't feel that not-going-to-happen electioneering promises of conscription made by a party which doesn't think it will need to do anything about them are going to freeze Putin in his tracks, nor yet fill Zelenskyy with hope. The information about quietly smuggling useful stuff to Ukraine seems a whole heap more pertinent, to me.

I wouldn’t write it off as never going to happen, Labour have attacked it for being unfounded. In essence leaving the option open if it could be funded.

Our preparedness levels, directly linked to a shortage in the armed forces, may well feature heavily in Russia’s thinking.

Mark Galeotti did a really good episode recently about the love/hate relationship between Russia and the UK, we carry more influence than we often realise.

I suppose Russia is accustomed to the idea that conscripts make acceptable soldiers because you can give them three weeks' "training", arm them with a rifle you've had lying around since 1935, point them in the direction of the enemy and they will form a useful diversion, but unlike Russia we don't have a land border with anyone we might feel like invading, we'd need to get the cannon-fodder to the front line first, and we have a distinct shortage of troop-ships.

Conscripts can work as a basic regular force to an extent, yes. You really don’t want to rely on them, though, which is why Russia has focused a lot of effort in improving remuneration for those signing up to their forces now.

That said, a lot of Europe in the first half of the 20th century was majority conscription based, however, the social dimension is much different today and I just don’t see it flying, frankly.

At the time the local Royal Navy AFCO office was run by a couple of Royal Marine Warrant Officers (fine, though some reckoned that they prioritised their own over the blue jackets). Though there might have been a Lt RN dealing with officer recruitment.

Eventually you were sent for a medical with a GP employed by Crapita. If anything showed up on that it was sent down to a Royal Navy doctor in Portsmouth who had every "Temporarily Medically Unfit" medical report from recruitment in her in-tray. I'm pretty sure that her in-tray was probably organised like the Royal Mail overflow storage - the stuff that had been there longest would be at the bottom of the pile and would be dealt with last. You'd wait for months and months. I think that I was in the system for nearly 18 months before time was called on the application.

Live thread on The Telegraph right now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/26/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news6/

Not only has the shabby state of western armed forces (both in terms of manpower, and supplies of equipment) emboldened Putin, it is also making it more difficult for us to resupply Ukraine with munitions and will hinder us if we get directly involved.

A conscript force would still be shabby, so I doubt it would make Putin quake in his boots; and if we were using more munitions training our conscripts we would have less, not more, to spare for Ukraine.

However, time enough to worry about it if Sunak gets elected in July, right? If.

He's just after the votes of tory defectors and reform candidates. It's the final nail in the Tory coffin for me, it's laid them bare.