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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
L1ttledrummergirl · 05/04/2024 16:17

Re David Cameron, it's more talk. I'll be more impressed if/when he follows through with action.

DrBlackbird · 05/04/2024 17:07

MissConductUS · 05/04/2024 11:36

It's such a delicate political situation in the House, with Johnson struggling to keep his job, that it's very difficult to predict. The good news is that his vulnerability is forcing him to work with Democrats to get votes for must-pass legislation like the budgets, and the Democrats want aid to Ukraine to pass as a top priority.

My gut tells me that it's 60/40 that the bill will find a way through in the next month. But I've been wrong on this before.

I’ll keep fingers and toes crossed.

But also if a good portion of those funds go to American defence companies, it seems insane that Republicans would hold it up.

MissConductUS · 05/04/2024 18:04

DrBlackbird · 05/04/2024 17:07

I’ll keep fingers and toes crossed.

But also if a good portion of those funds go to American defence companies, it seems insane that Republicans would hold it up.

That helps, but the argument only goes so far. We could give the money to American defense contractors to build things for our forces, and then we'd get to keep all of those aircraft, submarines, etc., for our own use.

The Senate bill did try to address this to a degree by offering funding to expand ammunition production capacity, but most of the kit winds up headed to Ukraine, as it needs to.

DrBlackbird · 06/04/2024 00:36

Yes I can see that rationale as well if / as long as it was deemed that America was short of aircrafts etc. and needed them. Going by what we see on the news it doesn’t seem to be an issue but you never know.

blueshoes · 06/04/2024 05:19

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5.
  • The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal indicated that Ukraine is starting to staff new units, but that Ukraine needs further Western military assistance to properly equip them.
  • Shmyhal also reported that Russian missile and drone strikes have damaged or disrupted roughly 80 percent of electricity generation at Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs) in recent weeks, as Russian forces continue to exploit the degraded Ukrainian air defense umbrella in an effort to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid.
  • Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine.
  • An unattributed drone reportedly struck a military unit in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistria on April 5 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.
  • Russia reportedly has conducted thousands of cyber-attacks against Czechia’s rail transport infrastructure and that of other European states as part of a broader effort to degrade NATO members’ transport logistics since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amidst ongoing positional fighting along the entire line of contact on April 5.
  • Russia’s defense industry continues to mobilize to meet the Russian military’s needs in Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on April 4 that Russia will open two youth centers aimed at indoctrinating Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and historical narratives in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in the near future.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 06/04/2024 11:22

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Interior Ministry: Russia struck https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-russia-attacked-ukraine-around-30-000-times-in-2024/ Ukraine around 30,000 times in 2024 so far.

⚡️Military: Russian use of prohibited https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-begin-to-use-munition-with-prohibited-chemicals-more-frequent/ chemical weapons has become 'systemic’ the command of Ukraine's Support Forces reported on April 5.
Ukrainian forces recorded 371 cases of usage of munition containing prohibited chemicals over the past month, which is 90 cases more than during the previous one.
For such attacks, Russia primarily uses K-51 and RG-VO grenades, which are delivered via drones, according to the Support Forces.

⚡️Russia could launch a new counteroffensive at the end of May or the beginning of June, likely targeting Kharkiv, Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, told Politico on April 5. https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-russian-counteroffensive-could-start-in-may-or-june-kharkiv-likely-to-be-targeted/

⚡️Ukraine announces mandatory evacuation https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-announces-mandatory-childrens-evacuation-from-52-settlements-in-sumy-oblast/ for children from 52 settlements in Sumy Oblast, the Reintegration Ministry announced on April 5.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Western sanctions curb Turkey's trade with Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-western-sanctions-curb-turkeys-trade-with-russia/
Turkey's trade boom with Russia is faltering due to "rapidly expanding" Western sanctions lists, Bloomberg reported on April 5.
Turkish machinery exporters, who benefited from the surge in sales to Russia last year, may see their revenues drop by $1 billion in 2024 due to sanctions, Bloomberg said, citing Kutlu Karavelioglu, the chairperson of the Machinery Exporters' Association.

⚡️ Ukrenergo: Energy equipment damaged https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-facility-damaged/ in Russian strikes against Odesa Oblast.

⚡️Drone reportedly attacks military base https://kyivindependent.com/drone-reportedly-attacks-military-base-in-russian-occupied-transnistria/ in Russian-occupied Transnistria.

India will receive two Russian-made warships in the next few months as the two countries work around U.S. sanctions that have complicated purchases of Russian arms, unnamed Indian officials told Bloomberg. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-india-set-to-receive-russian-warships-despite-sanctions/

⚡️ Shmyhal: Ukraine proposes allies to ban air transit to Russia, Belarus. https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine/

Turkish Ombudsman Seref Malkoc is planning to visit Ukrainian prisoners of war who have been held in Russia, he said in an interview to Ukrinform on April 5. https://kyivindependent.com/turkish-ombudsman-plans-to-visit-ukrainian-pows-captured-in-russia/

How Ukrainian social media influencer raised over $50 million for military thanks to ‘typing’ https://kyivindependent.com/ihor-lachenkov-interview/

⚡️Zelensky appoints https://kyivindependent.com/zelenksy-appoints-volodymyr-hordiychuk-as-new-commander-of-national-guard/ Volodymyr Hordiychuk as new commander of National Guard

⚡️ Military intelligence: Oil pipeline blown up https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-oil-pipeline-in-russias-rostov-oblast-on-fire/ in Russia's Rostov Oblast.
An oil pipeline near the Russian city of Azov, Rostov Oblast, that was funneling oil products to tankers in the Azov Sea Port was blown up overnight on April 6, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said.

Doctors Without Borders, an international medical humanitarian organization that provides help in conflict zones, reported on April 5 that its office in Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast was "bombed and completely destroyed." https://kyivindependent.com/doctors-without-borders-says-office-in-donetsk-oblast-bombed-and-completely-destroyed/

The BBC's Russian service, along with the Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, confirmed on April 5 the identities of more than 50,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-confirms-identities-of-more-than-50-000-russians-killed-in-ukraine/

⚡️ Update: 4 killed, 23 injured https://kyivindependent.com/update-4-killed-23-injured-in-russian-april-5-attacks-on-zaporizhzhia/ in Russian April 5 attacks on Zaporizhzhia.

⚡️ Kyiv Independent's investigation 'Uprooted' wins international media award. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-independents-investigation-uprooted-wins-international-media-award/
The Kyiv Independent's investigative documentary "Uprooted" on Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children has won the 2023 Investigative Reporters and Editors (IRE) award for the Video – Divison I category.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • APR 6, 2024
■ Casualties stay above 7-day avg; engagements up ■ Great equipment losses incl. 24 tanks & 70 vehicles ■ Strikes on both sides up; improved artillery ratio but still above avg ■ KIU: +49 officers; highest 30-day ratio of 2024
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 06/04/2024 11:38

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Czech Republic stated that Russia has made “thousands” of attempts to interfere with European rail networks as part of a campaign to destabilize the EU and attempt sabotage of critical infrastructure.

South Korea has announced plans to allocate $2.3 billion in aid to Ukraine starting from 2024.
Additionally, South Korea will provide $12 million through the NATO fund to support the operation of rehabilitation centers for wounded Ukrainian military personnel. While South Korea does not supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, it offers humanitarian and financial assistance. Cho Tae-yol, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, also expressed concerns about North Korea supplying weapons to Russia in violation of UN resolutions, emphasizing the potential threat this poses to the Korean Peninsula and the global nonproliferation regime.

French President Emmanuel Macron described Russia's tone as strange and threatening following a rare phone conversation between the defense ministers of both countries, their first contact since 2022, as reported by Agence France-Presse.

In Kharkiv, despite ongoing shelling and blackouts, over a million residents continue to stay, according to the mayor of Terekhov.

⚡️ Enemy propaganda keeps trying to intimidate the population of Kharkiv. This time, the enemy's manipulations targeted underground schools being built in the city.

There are over 62,000 women in Ukraine's Armed Forces. Olha Bihar is one of them. After the full-scale invasion, this owner of a law firm became an officer and artillery commander.
She works with mortars—an effective type of weaponry that allows attacking the enemy where other weapons cannot reach. The heroine of the 'Profession: Warrior' goes by the call sign Witch. She has gone from serving in the infantry to commanding artillery units and knows firsthand what the war looks like for a mortar crew. https://t.me/United24media/20495

According to an Ipsos poll for Euronews, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron are the most popular European leaders in the European Union, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin are the least liked.

UNITED24Media

There are over 62,000 women in Ukraine's Armed Forces. Olha Bihar is one of them. After the full-scale invasion, this owner of a law firm became an officer and artillery commander. She works with mortars—an effective type of weaponry that allows attac...

https://t.me/United24media/20495

DancesWithDucks · 06/04/2024 11:45

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🛰 Satellite images of the Russian airbase near Morozovsk before and after the drone attack show that the aircraft have no visible damage
However, the Russians moved some of the planes. Earlier it was written that at least 6 aircraft were destroyed and 8 damaged at Morozovsk. The images were taken on the morning of April 4 and 5.

The US Secretary of State said that China's assistance to Russia's military-industrial complex is of "alarming proportions"
China provides "tools, resources and technical expertise," according to the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ba524406-ee6c-4c39-9ac2-110a2549569a This assistance is particularly focused on the Russian production of optical equipment and rocket fuel.
Antony Blinken urged the allies to "express their concerns" to China during bilateral meetings and to speak publicly about deepening this cooperation. He also pointed to the need to take action against companies that strengthen Russia's industrial base.

Chasiv Yar remains under our control. We have achieved tactical success in the Kupyansk and Lyman sectors, — Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The most fierce fighting is currently taking place in the areas of Pervomaiske, Vodyane and east of Chasiv Yar. [However, good sources say that the Russians are in the suburbs of Chasiv Yar now]

A dam has burst in the Russian city of Orsk, and mass evacuations have begun. 4 thousand homes are under threat

In Russia, the girl who "tickled" the monument "Motherland" was sentenced to 10 months of forced labor. She was also banned from making publications on social networks for two years. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19818

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Igotjelly · 06/04/2024 14:25

Not one for the faint hearted but the new book by Annie Jacobsen “Nuclear War - A scenario” is absolutely fabulous. I think she might be on the latest episode of the Deepstate Radio podcast speaking about it.

blueshoes · 07/04/2024 04:19

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.
  • Zelensky stressed that additional Western security assistance is necessary for Ukrainian forces to effectively defend Ukraine’s airspace against the intensified Russian strike campaign and increased Russian aviation operations along the frontline.
  • Zelensky cautioned that the arrival of all promised F-16 fighter jets from Ukraine’s Western partners in 2024 will provide Ukraine with only 10 percent of the fighter aircraft Ukraine would need to completely defeat Russian aviation and restore Ukraine’s ability to operate effectively in the air domain.
  • Continued delays in US security assistance are specifically impacting the capabilities that Ukrainian forces need to respond to the increased tempo of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin explicitly threatened its long-term ally Armenia on April 5 over Armenian outreach to the West following Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
  • The Russian MFA also continues to threaten Finland and claimed that Finland has “lost its independence in making foreign policy decisions” since its accession to NATO — a narrative that the Kremlin routinely used to falsely claim that NATO was controlling Ukraine and using Ukraine to threaten Russia.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov announced on April 5 that 3,000 former Wagner Group personnel will join the Akhmat Spetsnaz unit following successful negotiations between Akhmat and Wagner commanders.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin passed two laws on April 6, offering Russian society some concession for its sacrifices to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
MagicFox · 07/04/2024 10:45

A must listen for all: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/283c0fcc-8daa-4451-919d-c707ce1c7b5

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:24

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US Treasury Secretary warns https://kyivindependent.com/us-treasury-secretary-warns-china-of-significant-consequences-if-its-companies-support-russias-war/ China of 'significant consequences' if its companies support Russia's war.

⚡️Bloomberg: US warns allies about China's provision of geospatial intelligence https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-warns-allies-about-chinas-provision-of-geospatial-intelligence-to-russia/ to Russia.
The U.S. is cautioning its allies about China's increased backing of Russia, which includes supplying geospatial intelligence to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
Reports suggest ongoing military collaboration between the two countries, with China furnishing Russia with satellite imagery for military applications, along with microelectronics and machine tools for tank production.

⚡️Russia's Lavrov to visit China https://kyivindependent.com/russias-lavrov-to-visit-china-on-april-8-9-the-ministry-says/ ) on April 8-9.

⚡️Ally of Russia-friendly leader wins Slovakian presidential election. (https://kyivindependent.com/ally-of-russia-friendly-leader-wins-slovakian-presidential-election/) 

️Zelensky: Ukraine needs https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-needs-25-patriot-air-defense-systems-to-be-completely-covered/ 25 Patriot air defense systems to cover the country.

⚡️Zelensky meets https://kyivindependent.com/ally-of-russia-friendly-leader-wins-slovakian-presidential-election/ bipartisan US Congress delegation, calls to pass Ukraine aid bill.
The delegation included Republicans Joni Ernst, Ashley Hinson, and Chuck Edwards and Democrats Wiley Nickel, Tom Suozzi, and Michael Quigley.

⚡️ Syrskyi: Chasiv Yar https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-chasiv-yar-remains-under-ukraines-control-fierce-battles-east-of-city/ remains under Ukraine's control, heavy battles east of city.

⚡️UK Military Intelligence: Ukrainian strikes https://kyivindependent.com/uk-military-intelligence-ukrainian-strikes-overload-russian-air-defense-causing-friendly-fire/ overload Russian air defense, causing 'friendly fire.'

⚡️Russia might conduct regular mobilization https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-additional-300-000-mobilized-russian-troops-could-not-be-final-number/ campaigns in the near future, Zelensky says.
In an April 6 interview with national broadcasters, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the 300,000 troops that Russia plans to mobilize by June wouldn't be the "final" draft.

Lithuania has delivered a new batch of M577 tracked armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry reported on April 6. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-delivers-additional-armored-personnel-carriers-to-ukraine/

⚡️Bloomberg: US top general says North Korea’s missiles getting valuable battlefield testing https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-top-general-says-north-koreas-missiles-getting-valuable-battlefield-testing-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 7, 2024
■ Increase in casualties despite fewer combat engagements
■ Most equipment losses this year so far, most reported since Oct 20 last year
■ Improved air strike ratio, worse artillery one, fewer settlements under fire

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:25

MagicFox · 07/04/2024 10:45

Im getting a Server Error with this - can you reach it, Magic?

MagicFox · 07/04/2024 11:31

Here's a more direct link: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/283c0fcc-8daa-4451-919d-c707ce1c7b50

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:36

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is urgently seeking energy equipment and air defense ammunition to prevent summer blackouts following devastating Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure, reports Bloomberg.

Estonia has discovered an additional 1 million shells destined for Ukraine, as reported by Forbes.
Anno Pevkur, the Minister of Defense of Estonia, revealed that these munitions are valued at approximately $2.2 billion. They include 155-mm projectiles conforming to NATO standards, 152-mm projectiles following Soviet standards, and "Grad" missiles. [thank fuck]

While Russia seeks out weak points in Ukraine's defense, Ukraine is relying on the mistakes made by the enemy, according to CNN. The Russian forces have been launching frequent mechanized ground attacks, resulting in significant losses in manpower and equipment for the occupiers, albeit causing erosion in Ukrainian defense capabilities along the front line.
Kateryna Stepanenko from ISW suggests that Russia's objective may be to identify vulnerabilities and exhaust Ukrainian defense capabilities in preparation for summer offensive operations
The ratio of artillery shells on the front line currently stands at least 5:1.

The EU has pledged to provide Armenia with 270 million euros to help reduce its economic dependency on Russia. This commitment came after negotiations in Brussels involving the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
However, Azerbaijan, a key exporter of natural gas to Europe and a historical adversary of Armenia, raised objections to the trilateral meeting in Brussels. Prior to the meeting, von der Leyen reassured Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a telephone call, affirming the EU's commitment to continue cooperation with Baku in areas such as renewable energy sources, transportation development, and energy security.

Ukraine has proposed banning air transit through the EU for Russians and Belarusians.
"Our proposal aims to restrict the comfortable use of EU skies by Russian businesses and tourists. We've discussed with our partners the possibility of closing transit for flights to and from Russia," said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Andriy Yermak, in an interview with Politico, emphasized that Ukrainians may feel fatigued but will not entertain compromise with Putin, asserting that negotiations with Russia are out of the question

Zelenskyy underscored that following the mobilization of an additional 300,000 individuals, it would take approximately a month for the Russians to prepare them, and he did not discount the possibility of Russia later mobilizing even more individuals.

Zelenskyy expressed concern that the existing air defense reserves may not be sufficient in a month's time, given the ongoing high intensity of shelling.
Furthermore, he mentioned that only 10% of the promised F-16 fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine this year. Nevertheless, he emphasized that these aircraft will be capable of coordinating with air defense systems to enhance Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

President Zelenskyy announced that the construction of defense structures in certain directions has reached completion rates of up to 98%. The plan is to finish constructing fortifications across all directions within the next couple of months.

DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:37

Thanks, ill listen when the kids arent around.

MagicFox · 07/04/2024 11:38

I can't seem to edit the original post to fix the link

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:47

The Edit function is time limited. ive tried to edit mistakes in roundup posts before but it's been too late.

I dread to think how many mistakes are in the posts but mostly I'm doing them rather fast in between other things!

Also, just realised that if a post has been edited, you can click on the little white highlighted word and you will see the original, unedited version as well as the edited!

DancesWithDucks · 07/04/2024 11:54

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇭🇺 Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar led the second mass protest against the rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orban
The politician intends to create his own party to "challenge Orban" in the local and European Parliament elections in June. [Unconfirmed reference that 300,000 have hit the streets to protest against Órban]

The Telegraph: Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers.

According to the testimonies https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/06/russia-using-illegal-chemical-attacks-against-ukraine/#:~:text=The%20Russians%20have%20made%20little,being%20dropped%20on%20Ukrainian%20positions. the official Ukrainian count of 626 gas attacks is "a gross underestimate".

▪️Ukraine will agree to receive US aid on credit. Zelensky emphasized that "if Ukraine was offered credit assistance today or free assistance tomorrow, we would agree to today."

🇸🇰In Slovakia, Peter Pellegrini, a coalition partner of anti-Ukrainian Prime Minister Robert Fico, won the presidential election
Pellegrini shares the government's policy of "standardizing relations with Russia." He also believes that sanctions against Russia are ineffective in most cases and have a negative impact on the people of Slovakia.

This is how "liberated" Avdiivka looks like at the moment https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19859

Second dam burst in Orsk: local refinery shut down, state of emergency declared
A federal state of emergency has been declared in the entire Orenburg region. The head of the Russian Emergencies Ministry said that the situation in Orsk is "critical". The only oil refinery in the Orenburg oblast, Orsknefteorgsintez, has also suspended operations to avoid an environmental disaster.
▪️In the Russian Federation, a federal emergency is declared when the number of people killed and injured exceeds 500 or the amount of damage exceeds 1.2 billion rubles.

The commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) battalion and a captured Russian soldier

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
WinterMorn · 07/04/2024 12:58

Yet The Kremlin claim to be ‘de-nazifying’ Ukraine….its sickening.

MagicFox · 07/04/2024 13:30

@bonnieglaser US officials are saying that Chinese support is approaching the "lethal aid" threshold

OP posts:
Mb76 · 07/04/2024 15:32

I don’t know if the Western sanctions are working that well if at all. Small scale example. My company like many other British businesses, ceased all operations with Russia at the start of the war. Shut all retail shops and stopped sending orders to individuals. However they are finding ways to contraband our goods into Russia from the UK via third party shippers. And guess what, Russia doesn’t stop these parcels at customs. However one of these bloggers was fuming because since the 1st of April the threshold has been reduced from €1000 to €200 for customs fees.
when we find these individuals we obviously report and block them but it’s like looking for needles in haystacks.

MontBlanc1 · 07/04/2024 22:59

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ for breaking our Talk Guidelines - previously banned poster.

MissConductUS · 08/04/2024 00:41

Here's the WSJ's take on what's happening with aid to Ukraine in Congress

Mike Johnson’s Ukraine Moment The House Speaker is stepping up, but Biden needs to help get Democratic votes..

The LNG ban the editorial refers to is a block on new export contracts for liquified natural gas the Biden administration put in place last fall purely to appease the "stop oil" wing of the Democratic party. It's a bit of an own goal as it helps Russia by keeping prices high and hurts our allies (particularly in Europe) who want reliable supplies of American LNG. Republicans want the ban on new contracts lifted, but Biden is worried it will hurt him politically with that wing of his party if he does so.

I think he should be more worried about Ukraine losing.

MagicFox · 08/04/2024 08:24

I don't know if the rest of you have noticed it in podcasts etc (and certainly in that discussion on the impact of the war on the UK I posted yesterday) but there's been a real shift in European thinking from "if America withdraws" to "when" and a sense that the US can't be relied on. It seems to be a huge tangible shift in thinking. I am wondering about the extent of potential withdrawal. In the evidence given in the parliamentary debate I linked to yesterday the discussion suggested that the loss of America's "brain" ie information would be especially devastating. This shocked me as I haven't been contemplating a US withdrawal to that extent and assumed that information sharing and "eyes" would be one of the strongest things to remain

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