Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Recall Sun Tzu's third essential factor for victory:

3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.

This lack of what is sometimes called unit cohesion is one of the Russian Army's biggest weaknesses. And it gets lots of brutal officers "accidentally" shot in the back or run over by vehicles. It's poison for combat readiness and effectiveness. I believe it's a key reason the Russians culminate so quickly on the battlefield.

Well, yes, indeed. Fragging is generally thought to suggest the PBI don't like the Rupert much.

I was giving my gut reaction to the assertion that Russians had found the will to win some time ago. I think Putin did, but I am not convinced he's representative of all his army. Some of them definitely give the impression of not wanting to be there at all.

Some of them definitely give the impression of not wanting to be there at all.

Very few soldiers really want to be in active combat. You suck it up and do your job because your battle buddies/team members are depending on you, just as you rely on them. And you trust your leadership not to take unnecessary risks with your life. Believing in the mission helps, too. You fight because you value duty, honor and country.

The conscript part of the Russian Army has none of this going for them.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claimed that NATO and Russia are in “direct confrontation,” likely as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to intensify existing information operations meant to force the West into self-deterrence.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov appealed to Commonwealth of Independent State (CIS) members to increase cooperation against perceived Western threats as part of the effort to posture against the West.
• The Kremlin leveraged this overall information operation about escalation with NATO to target France specifically, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent calls for the West to expand the level and types of security assistance it sends to Ukraine.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also promoted information operations feigning interest in negotiations, and Lavrov’s and Shoigu’s likely coordinated informational efforts may signal a new round of intensified Russian rhetoric about negotiations.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to balance the Kremlin’s opposing efforts to set social expectations for a protracted Russian war effort and to assuage Russian society’s concerns about the economic consequences of the war and labor migration.
• Russian forces conducted a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) on April 4 and advanced up to the eastern outskirts of the settlement.
• Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
• An unspecified senior NATO official reportedly told Russian opposition news outlet Vazhnye Istorii that NATO intelligence agencies have not observed indications that Russia is preparing for a large-scale partial mobilization wave.

"We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted its military"

www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/04/03/russian-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-us-official-says/

I find this quite hard to believe. In number maybe but that’s not the same as quality like-for-like.

Holy smokes I never thought I'd see the day when I thought David Cameron was fabulous, but here he is again being bloody fabulous: x.com/david_cameron/status/1775976983203053788?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

This is worth reading to understand what Russian elites are thinking about Russia's way forward: https://swentr.site/russia/595266-ukraine-west-pushed-russia/?utmsource=rss&utmmmedium=rss&utmcampaign=RSS&utmmsource=ground.news&utm_medium=referral

It warms the heart to see Dave rallying foreign ministers to send out a clear message that Ukraine needs our help and that of the EU and US. I applaud that.

It however seems a shame Jeremy Hunt did not increase UK defence spending in real terms in the last budget. Dave's rallying cry rings a little hollow.

Yes let's see if it becomes an election issue

David C is calling on the US to release funding @MissConductUS how likely is it that Congress will agree to release funds for Ukraine?

Our armed forces are an understrength, underfunded mess. A lot of that 2% goes towards Trident. With Russia being the way it is, we really need to increase it.

@MagicFox, I read that Russian article to the background of Elsa's 'let it go' song. Whilst it's logical fir Russia to look elsewhere, there, there's a strong element of "well, we don't like them anyway."

I think we need to all write to our local MPs (and candidates) to ask about defence spending and raise awareness that it's an important issue to the public

Frankly I don’t trust a thing Cameron says, he’s a career politician who says all the right things but that’s about all. I’ll never forgive him for sacrificing the good of our country in order to appease a fanatical right wing of the Conservative Party.

That video is a slick piece of propaganda which will have been coordinated by civil servants with little in put from Cameron himself. He’ll probably never think about it again.

It's such a delicate political situation in the House, with Johnson struggling to keep his job, that it's very difficult to predict. The good news is that his vulnerability is forcing him to work with Democrats to get votes for must-pass legislation like the budgets, and the Democrats want aid to Ukraine to pass as a top priority.

My gut tells me that it's 60/40 that the bill will find a way through in the next month. But I've been wrong on this before.

I thought the same thing yesterday! David flipping Cameron looking like some kind of mature intelligent statesman, that sure came out of left field! 😂

I suspect he's still a bit of an arse though, underneath the polished exterior.

All of what you just said, heldinadream.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Thread

⚡️Sources: SBU attack against Russia's Morozovsk airbase destroys 6 planeshttps://kyivindependent.com/source-attack-on-morozovsk-airbase-carried-out-by-sbu-6-planes-destroyed/
An overnight attack against the Russian Morozovsk airbase on April 5 was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in cooperation with Ukraine's military, a source familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent. Another eight were damaged. Furthermore, about 20 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded, the source said. @notimagain

NATO intelligence data suggests that Russia is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive in the near future, European Pravda reported on April 4, citing a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-russia-spring-offensive-unlikely/

⚡️ White House: US expects Russia's vote on UN resolution to ban nuclear weapons in space.
The U.S. expects Russia to support a resolution at the U.N. Security Council warning countries against placing nuclear weapons in orbit, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on April 4, according to Bloomberg. https://kyivindependent.com/kirby-us-looks-forward-to-russias-vote-on-un-resolution-to-ban-deployment-of-space-nukes/

⚡️ Latvian PM: Latvia to soon deliver $1.1 million worth of drones to Ukraine via drone coalition. https://kyivindependent.com/pm-shmyhal-arrives-in-latvia/

Russia is actively trying to sabotage European railways by hacking into their signaling systems, Czech Transport Minister Martin Kupka said to the Financial Times (FT) in an interview published on April 5. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-czechia-warns-russia-is-trying-to-sabotage-railways-in-europe/

⚡️ State Emergency Service: Russian double-tap attacks have killed 91 first responders https://kyivindependent.com/russian-double-tap-attacks-have-killed-91-rescue-workers-injured-348/ injured 348. [my God. Savages].

The Finnish government has decided to keep the border with Russia closed "until further notice," Finland's Interior Ministry reported on April 4. https://kyivindependent.com/finland-decides-to-close-border-with-russia-indefinitely/

Berlin will call on allies worldwide to examine their air defense capabilities and "to provide whatever we all can" to Ukraine, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels on April 4. https://kyivindependent.com/german-fm-says-berlin-will-initiate-search-for-more-air-defense-for-ukraine/

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on April 4 that it uncovered evidence that Russian forces were able to hack into the devices of military personnel in order to guide a missile to strike the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, killing at least 19 Ukrainian soldiers, in November last year. kyivindependent.com/sbu-russians-guided-missile-to-strike-128th-brigade/

Ukraine is addressing demands from Hungary to deal with the unresolved issues of Ukraine's national minorities in order to unblock the eighth tranche of the 500 million euros to the European Peace Facility, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on April 4. https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-working-with-hungary-to-unblock-eu-aid/

⚡️ Lukashenko decides to suspend Belarus https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-agrees-to-suspend-belarus-from-european-conventional-armed-forces-treaty/ from European Conventional Armed Forces treaty.

⚡️ SBU: Russian information operations seek to discredit Ukraine's top officials, military. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-launched-thousands-of-disinformation-campaigns-against-ukraines-top-officials-military/
Russian intelligence services have launched a "huge number" of disinformation and psychological operations against Ukraine's top government and military officials. [More than 1000 in one month]

⚡️ Portuguese FM: Portugal no longer hesitant about Ukraine's EU membership. https://kyivindependent.com/portuguese-fm-portugal-no-longer-hesitant-about-ukraines-eu-membership/

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new sanctions on April 4 against the company Oceanlink Maritime DMCC for its role in shipping material for the Iranian military. https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-new-sanctions-against-shipping-company-linked-to-iranian-military/

Russian forces carried out a targeted attack on a solar power plant in Ukraine's rear for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo, said at a press conference on April 4. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-russia-targeted-solar-power-plant-in-ukraines-rear-for-the-first-time/

⚡️Scheduled blackouts introduced in 6 Ukrainian regions https://kyivindependent.com/scheduled-blackouts-introduced-in-6-ukrainian-regions-due-to-russian-attacks/ due to Russian attacks.

⚡️Economy Ministry: Allies donate https://kyivindependent.com/economy-ministry-allies-donate-over-700-million-in-demining-aid-to-ukraine/ over $700 million in demining aid to Ukraine.

Lithuania will purchase 3,000 Lithuanian drones for Kyiv and allocate 15 million euros (around $16 million) to rehabilitation programs for wounded Ukrainian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-purchase-3-000-drones-for-ukraine/

The Japanese government announced on April 5 its decision to ban exports of 164 goods to Russia, such as automobile engine oil and optical equipment, the Jiji Press news agency reported. https://kyivindependent.com/japan-to-ban-export-of-164-types-of-goods-to-russia/

⚡️General Staff: Enlistment offices to summon men aged 25 https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-enlistment-offices-to-summon-25-year-olds-to-provide-data-pass-medical-checks/ to provide personal data, undergo medical checks.

⚡️ SBU reports uncovering 2 foreigners allegedly helping to prepare Russian attacks on Odesa military HQ. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-reports-uncovering-2-foreigners-allegedly-preparing-attacks-on-armed-forces-hq-in-odesa/

⚡️Ukrainian man sentenced https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-man-sentenced-to-life-in-prison-for-role-in-helping-target-attack-on-kramatorsk-cafe-that-killed-13/ to life in prison for role in helping target attack on Kramatorsk cafe that killed 13.

Faith under fire: Russia's war on religion https://kyivindependent.com/faith-under-fire-russias-war-on-religion-in-ukraines-occupied-territories/ in Ukraine's occupied territories

⚡️Reuters: Sanctions may force https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-novatek-sanctions/ Russian company to scale back Arctic LNG project.

⚡️ French company Danone starts dissolution https://kyivindependent.com/french-company-danone-launches-dissolution-of-its-last-subsidiary-in-belarus/ of its last subsidiary in Belarus.

⚡️Governor: 4 children brought back https://kyivindependent.com/governor-4-children-returned-from-russian-occupied-territory/ from Russian-occupied territory.

⚡️Poll: Just 12% of Ukrainians only speak https://kyivindependent.com/poll-ukrainian-russian-12/ Russian at home.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• APR 5, 2024

■ Casualties above 7-day average; unchanged number of engagements ■ Massive equipment losses; most APVs in 2024 so far ■ Unfavorable strike ratios however; more 🇷🇺 strikes & fewer 🇺🇦 ones ■ Oryx: 85 🇷🇺 33 🇺🇦; 30-day ratio at 2.5x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🔥 The night attack on the Morozovsk military airfield in Russia was organized by the SBU – at least 6 aircrafts were destroyed and 8 more were severely damaged, Army TV reports, citing sources. There are reports of about 20 dead and wounded Russian soldiers.
Frontline bombers Su-24, Su-24M, and Su-34 were based at the airfield. These bombers attack Ukrainian positions and frontline cities with guided aerial bombs.

🇺🇳UN Secretary-General spokesman Stephane Dujarric says https://www.holosameryky.com/a/oon-ataky/7556467.html** he misheard a journalist's question when he called on Ukraine not to attack Russia's "civilian infrastructure."
"I misheard the question. If asked again, I would not have answered that way," he said.

🤡Russia's Investigative Committee allegedly found photos of the Ukrainian flag, Ukrainian military, and a well-known stamp with a Russian ship on the phones of the Islamic terrorists who attacked the Crocus City Hall shopping center.
Russian investigators said that on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion (February 24, 2024), one of the terrorists allegedly sent his "curator" a photo of the entrances and access roads to the mall.
The agency published a video with these photos. The footage is just a simple cutaway with no evidence. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19810

In recent weeks, Russians have destroyed 80% of Ukraine's thermal power plants with strikes, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said https://rus.err.ee/1609302540/premer-ministr-ukrainy-denis-shmygal-evropa-probuzhdaetsja-i-jeto-horoshaja-novost
According to the prime minister, Ukraine is looking for equipment from partners to help restore the affected power plant units. A decentralized system of energy supply to the population is being created.

🇳🇴Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/04/5/7183136/ that in the long run he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, although there are no such plans at the moment

This boy with a flag in his hands meets Ukrainian pilots. One day, a helicopter landed near his home, and a soldier handed the child a package
How could you not be moved? https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19807

Arg, that was Live: Ukraine sorry. Not UNITED24. Doing this in haste.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg clarified that Ukraine is not requesting combat units from the Alliance but is seeking increased military assistance. He emphasized that NATO is not, and will not, become directly involved in the conflict.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, Defense Minister Shoigu, and Foreign Minister Lavrov have intensified information operations aimed at pressuring Ukraine into negotiations and instilling fear in the West to constrain their support.

The United States and Germany remain opposed to inviting Ukraine to join NATO, so it won't happen at the Washington summit.

Despite India's recent moves towards closer cooperation with the West and expressions of interest in strengthening ties with Ukraine, New Delhi is unlikely to take drastic measures that could significantly impact its relations with Russia. According to Voice of America, while the recent visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to India marked positive developments in bilateral cooperation, India is unlikely to fully align itself with Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
During his visit, Kuleba and his Indian counterparts discussed various projects in trade, agriculture, economy, and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. However, Kuleba was unable to persuade Indian authorities to take a more decisive stance against Russian aggression, which was one of the main objectives of the trip.
Moreover, public opinion in India about the conflict is influenced by Russian propaganda, which may not be favorable to Ukraine. Therefore, while India may continue to engage with Ukraine on various fronts, it is unlikely to become a key player in Ukraine's peace initiatives due to its complex geopolitical considerations and historical ties with Russia.

Yesterday, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) celebrates the 75th anniversary of its founding.
Formed on the upward trends of the beginning of the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization today represents a benchmark security bloc that skillfully combines elements of ideological commonality, technological exchange, and broad-based political and economic cooperation on a level with classic “hard security”.
Find more about Ukrainian path to NATO: https://war.ukraine.ua/articles/it-takes-two-to-tango-ukrainian-path-to-nato/

153rd Mechanized Brigade is no longer mechanized, — MilitaryLand.
The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reorganized the 153rd Mechanized Brigade into an infantry brigade. This change was announced through the official social media channels of the brigade.
While the official reason behind the change remains undisclosed, it is presumably linked to the shortage of infantry fighting vehicles. The problem arose already prior to the formation of 150ish mechanized brigades, it’s not new.
The reorganization of the 153rd Brigade may not be an isolated occurrence. According to the sources, the 152nd Mechanized Brigade is also slated for transformation into an infantry brigade in the near future.

❌ Enemy TG channels spread information that the deputy commander of the 15th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine held a class on making voodoo dolls in a Kharkiv school.
❌ Enemy TG channels spread information that the deputy commander of the 15th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine held a class on making voodoo dolls in a Kharkiv school.
‼️ russian propaganda spreads such fakes to create a negative attitude towards the Ukrainian military and to fuel hateful sentiments towards Ukrainians on the part of russians.

The UK Ministry of Defense recently shared this NATO infogram

❗️The nuclear installation was de-energized due to the Russian attack on Kharkiv.
It is about the world's only scientific nuclear facility "Neutron Source" and storage of nuclear materials. Now it is powered by a generator.

Have to say about that infogram that having all that hardware matters not a jot if Russia carries on undermining us from within so very successfully.