Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

A deal may finally be coming together in Congress on aid to Ukraine.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/mike-johnson-ukraine-house-vote-democrats-rcna145471

Praying for good news on that front @MissConductUS. Although I sense Putin is pushing hard now whilst he knows Ukraine are suffering from war fatigue and a reduction of help from all quarters. Renewed aid, if it comes, will take time to arrive.
I'm glad leaders in Europe have woken up to the threat of a third world war and are vocalising that possibility, but I wonder whether they will ever actually put their money where their mouths are and put European economies on a war footing prior to a strike against NATO.
Putin has done it in Russia without needing to debate the issue. In a democracy it's not a vote winner and so many people seem disinterested/unaware of what is happening in Ukraine they resent sending aid and increasing spending on defence.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Putin signed a decree on March 31 to conscript 150,000 citizens as part of the regularly occurring spring conscription campaign, Russia's Defense Ministry reported. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-decree-to-conscript-150-000-russians-for-military-service/

⚡️Johnson says vote on Ukraine aid will be held https://kyivindependent.com/johnson-says-vote-on-ukraine-aid-will-be-held-right-after-easter-recess/ 'right after' Easter recess.

⚡️ Moldovan military holds JCET drills https://kyivindependent.com/moldovan-military-holds-exercises-with-us-romania/ with US, Romania. [Not insignificant in the light of the serious threat to Moldova from Russia]* *

⚡️ FT: Over 50% of Russians blame Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/ft-2/ for Moscow terrorist attack, survey shows.
More than 50% of Russians believe that Ukrainian leadership is responsible for the shooting at the Crocus City Hall concert hall outside Moscow, the Financial Times (FT) reported, citing a survey by OpenMinds, an Anglo-Ukrainian online pollster.

⚡️ Reuters: Iran warned Russia about 'major terrorist operation https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-iran-warns-russia-about-major-terrorist-operation-ahead-of-moscow-shooting/ ahead of Moscow shooting.

⚡️ Mayor: Russia destroys 'almost all' energy infrastructure https://kyivindependent.com/russia-destroys-almost-all-energy-infrastructure-in-kharkiv-mayor-says/ in Kharkiv.

⚡️Budanov warns Russian railway in occupied Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-warns-russian-railway-in-occupied-ukraine-can-pose-serious-problem/ can pose 'a serious problem.’
Kyrylo Budanov added that he believes that Ukraine will be able to cope with the issue but didn't elaborate on the details.

⚡️ ISW: Russia may focus its potential offensive only in one operational direction. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-51/
Russia may focus its potential late spring or summer offensive against Ukraine in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their April 1 report.

⚡️Ukraine considering https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-considering-following-suit-if-us-bans-tiktok/ following suit if US bans TikTok, lawmaker Yaroslav Yurchyshyn said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine released on April 1.

⚡️Russia may start using Kalibr missiles https://kyivindependent.com/intel-chief-says-russia-may-use-kalibr-missiles-again-as-kh-101-stocks-shrink/ again as Kh-101 stocks shrink, Budanov says.

⚡️Russia demands extradition https://kyivindependent.com/russia-demands-extradition-of-ukrainians-including-head-of-sbu-after-isis-k-attributed-terrorist-attack/ of Ukrainians, including head of SBU, citing the March 22 terrorist attack that has been claimed by an Afghanistan-based ISIS group, as well as other attacks.

⚡️Russian GRU unit linked https://kyivindependent.com/russian-gru-unit-linked-to-mysterious-attacks-on-us-officials-abroad/ to mysterious attacks on US officials abroad.
A collaborative investigation by The Insider uncovered evidence linking the mysterious health condition known as the Havana Syndrome to members of Russia's military intelligence agency.
GRU Unit 29155 reportedly used directed energy weapons to target overseas U.S. government personnel. [This has been an ongoing and so far unexplained mystery for quite some time now]

Moscow shooting aftermath: Repressions, racism, terror https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-shooting-aftermath-repressions-racism-and-terror/
The March 22 Moscow mass shooting is likely to be used as a justification for a new wave of terror and oppression in Russia.
"The atmosphere of state terror is increasing in Russia," Sergei Sazonov, a political philosopher at New York University, told the Kyiv Independent. "The (political atmosphere) is becoming more savage."

⚡️ Ukrainian forces intercept Russian sabotage group https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-intercept-saboteur-group-near-russian-border-in-sumy-oblast/ near border in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️ Fire breaks out at industrial facility https://kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-industrial-facility-in-russias-yekaterinburg/ in Russia's Yekaterinburg.
A fire broke out on the territory of a heavy machine factory Uralmashzavod in Russia's Yekaterinburg, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry reported on April 1.
Uralmashzavod, based in the major Russian city east of the Ural Mountains, produces equipment for the metallurgy, mining, and energy industries

⚡️ NYT: Murder of Russian pilot in Spain https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-5/ bears similarities to earlier Moscow-linked killings.
The murder of Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who had defected to Ukraine, is similar to previous attacks in Europe linked to Moscow, but no evidence of direct Kremlin involvement has emerged so far, the New York Times (NYT) reported on March 31, citing unnamed senior police officials.

⚡️ SBU detains kindergarten employee https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-claims-to-detain-kindergarten-employee-adjusting-russian-attacks-on-kharkiv/ over allegedly aiding Russian attacks on Kharkiv.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cyber specialists exposed a kindergarten employee who was allegedly adjusting Russia's missile and drone strikes on the city of Kharkiv, the SBU reported on April 1.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 1, 2024
■ Artillery strike ratio up but still below 7-day average; continuedmissile attacks ■ Fewest combat engagements since Jan 8, casualties below 7-day average
■ Landbased equipment losses slightly below average; good tank losses

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russian disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in Europe have grown significantly in scope, skill, and stealth, reports the Financial Times.
A network of over 50,000 fake accounts, posting up to 200,000 posts a day, sought to convince Germans that government aid to Ukraine undermined German prosperity and posed a threat of nuclear war. The network attempted to "launder" such statements by presenting them as if they had been published by Der Spiegel and Süddeutsche Zeitung.
Last week, the Czech government, in collaboration with other European states, exposed a network linked to oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, which also disseminated pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian narratives in Europe.

Finland remains open to the possibility of deploying Western troops to Ukraine, albeit not in the present moment, as stated by the country’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen.

Russia reportedly plans to construct 25 new colonies and detention centers in the occupied territory of Ukraine over the next two years, according to Olga Romanova, the head of the Sitting Rus' Foundation.

In Bucha, Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute to the souls of Ukrainians who fell victim to Russian invaders during the occupation of the Kyiv region.
The incursion of the Russian army into Bucha on February 27, 2022, marked the beginning of a harrowing 33-day occupation, marred by over 9,000 documented war crimes and the tragic loss of more than 1,400 innocent civilians, including 37 precious children, within the Buchansk district.
March 31 brought liberation as the valiant Armed Forces reclaimed the city, restoring hope amidst the darkness of adversity.

Following the imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022, the United States achieved a remarkable feat by setting five consecutive monthly records for exporting domestically produced oil, as reported by Bloomberg.

The head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that Russia has yet to provide any new information regarding the downing of the Il-76 plane allegedly carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Cryptocurrencies are fueling Russia's shadow trade in gun parts, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo stated that Russian and Belarusian athletes will not be welcomed in Paris, while expressing strong support for Ukrainian athletes and the entire Ukrainian people. She assured Ukrainian athletes that Paris will welcome them as heroes during the Summer Olympics, making them feel at home. https://t.me/United24media/20322

Pope Francis extended a heartfelt plea for peace, directing his thoughts to the countless victims of ongoing conflicts worldwide, including those in Israel, Palestine, and Ukraine.

Live Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The United States will provide military aid to Ukraine on credit, said https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4566836-johnson-says-ukraine-aid-will-come-up-right-after-recess-and-will-include-some-innovations/ Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson

Despite numerous attacks, 1.3 million people remain in Kharkiv
Mayor Ihor Terekhov told LIGA.net https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/interview/rosiiany-ne-pidiishly-blyzhche-do-mista-ale-biut-novoiu-zbroieiu-mer-kharkova-ihor-terekhov that the military and authorities see no reason to evacuate the population. The mayor says that almost all critical energy infrastructure in the city has been destroyed, including the Kharkiv thermal power plant. More than $10 billion is needed to rebuild everything damaged by Russia. The city is engaging international partners.

"There are three rings of defense of the capital, we have reinforced the Chornobyl direction, which has not been taken into account as a defensive line until now. We have done everything to ensure that there are no options for a surprise attack by the enemy. We are also building long-term concrete fortifications. Because having such a neighbor means we need to be constantly ready for war," said Oleksandr Pavliuk.
About 1000 km of fortifications were built around Kyiv after the full-scale invasion, – the Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces

Agents of the Russian GRU are involved in the so-called Havana syndrome among American diplomats and intelligence officers. (https://theins.ru/en/politics/270425) Two of the US diplomat victims saw the Russian agents before or immediately after the attack and recognized them from photographs. It also turned out that one of the Russian agents received a government order to develop an "acoustic weapon." [truncated summary]

A car with collaborator Valeriy Chaika was blown up in occupied Starobilsk (Luhansk Oblast)

Dust from the Sahara has arrived in Ukraine
It was brought by a wave of heat from the western Mediterranean, which has been causing abnormally high temperatures in Ukraine for several days.

Two years have passed since the liberation of Bucha
During the occupation of the city, Russians killed 637 civilians.

So it's Trump's decree then?

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

Renewed aid, if it comes, will take time to arrive.

Some will, some won't. Anything that has to go by ship (tanks, for example) will take a while to get there. Most other things, particularly ammunition that is in short supply, can be airlifted by MAC (Military Airlift Command) directly from the US to Poland in a day or two. Then a week or so for distribution to the front lines in Ukraine.

@MagicFox

So it's Trump's decree then?

Was this a question for me? I'm not sure what you're referring to.

No it was rhetorical. This is what trump said - about giving aid to Ukraine on credit. It just feels like he's not even president but still in control

If the Democrats are going to save Johnson's job by voting for him to keep his job as a speaker, they will hold the whip hand when shaping the legislation. So what Trump wants becomes far less important.

And even if there is a loan element to it, it can be eliminated or modified by another bill later after the elections.

Thanks! I'm v glad we have our woman in the US :-)

Me too! Thanks @MissConductUS

And I'm glad to be here. These Ukraine threads have added a whole new dimension to MN for me. I never thought I'd be quoting Sun Tzu or explaining how ground combat works here, that's for sure. 😄

As to the politics, there is always so much backstory that it's hard to get the subtleties if you're not a native.

Learned a lot and gained a wider perspective from you @MissConductUS and others (sadly). Thank you.

I'm glad to hear it. It's good to have diverse voices on MN. It's not particularly welcoming to Americans here , unfortunately. As a New Yorker, I have a pretty thick skin, fortunately,

What do people make of the idea of Russian involvement in Havana syndrome? It's been unexplained for so long.

I seem to remember something coming out from the US Govt to say it was unlikely to be the result of hostile actions. Will find the article.

So far they blamed the diplomats' imagination, Cuba, and several other things I believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64814097.amp think this was the article I remember. It’s hard to know what to think!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia looking to remove https://kyivindependent.com/russia-looking-to-remove-talibans-designation-as-terrorist-organization/ Taliban’s designation as terrorist organization.

⚡️Japan provides https://kyivindependent.com/japan-provides-ukraine-with-118-million-in-aid/ Ukraine with $118 million grant for healthcare, reconstruction.

Russia is planning to reduce diesel exports from its Black and Baltic Sea ports in April to the lowest level in five months due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and the upcoming maintenance season, Bloomberg reported on April 1. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-diesel-exports/

⚡️Austria urges https://kyivindependent.com/austria-urges-strengthened-security-in-aftermath-of-spying-scandal/ strengthened security in aftermath of spying scandal.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said in a statement on April 1 that the country's National Security Council would be convened to discuss how to better protect itself from Russian intelligence infiltration.

Czechia busts Russian propaganda network https://kyivindependent.com/medvedchuks-network/ targeting European elections.

According to the Czech outlet Denik N and Germany's Spiegel, hundreds of thousands of euros went into the hands of politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary, partially in cash and partially in cryptocurrency.

⚡️WSJ: Russia using https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-russian-smugglers-using-cryptocurrencies-to-avoid-sanctions-buy-weapons/ cryptocurrency to avoid sanctions.

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) targeted a manufacturing facility for Shahed-type attack drones in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent on April 2. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-drones-hit-industrial-facilities-in-tatarstan/

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence says it disabled https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-says-it-blew-up-power-substation-in-occupied-sevastopol/ power substation in occupied Sevastopol.

⚡️South Korea sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/south-korea-sanctions-russian-organizations-individuals-over-cooperation-with-pyongyang/ Russian organizations, individuals over cooperation with Pyongyang.

Swedish defense minister on stepping up Ukraine aid and a new era in European security https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-defense-minister-interview/

⚡️Ukraine has attack drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-attack-drones-with-range-of-over-1-000-kilometers-says-fedorov/ says Fedorov. "Most of the drones that attacked Russian oil refineries have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, but now there are models that can fly over 1000 kilometers."

Experts warn UN court’s approach in Ukraine versus Russia genocide cases ‘may lead to more instability' https://kyivindependent.com/experts-warn-un-courts-approach-in-ukraine-versus-russia-genocide-cases-may-lead-to-more-instability/
Experts interviewed by the Kyiv Independent are worried that the Hague-based court, which is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, might not be up to the job.
ICJ judges rejected Kyiv's request to determine whether Moscow violated the Genocide Convention by using false claims about genocide as a justification for launching its all-out war against Ukraine in 2022.

Ukraine war latest: Russia destroys 'almost all https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-april-1/ ' energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, mayor says
⚡️USAID provides emergency equipment, over 100 generators https://kyivindependent.com/usaid-provides-emergency-equipment-and-over-100-generators-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.

⚡️Pentagon: North Korea continues https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-north-korea-continues-to-supply-weapons-to-russia/ to supply weapons to Russia.

⚡️Media: Chechen man arrested by Russian authorities after Moscow terrorist attack allegedly dies https://kyivindependent.com/media-chechen-man-arrested-by-russian-authorities-after-moscow-terrorist-attack-allegedly-dies-in-custody/ in custody.

A Moscow court charged a tenth person, a native of Tajikistan, on April 1 in connection to the Crocus City Hall attack. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-court-charges-10th-person-related-to-crocus-city-hall-attack/

⚡️Poll: Most Ukrainians say they understand https://kyivindependent.com/poll-motivation-draft-evaders/ motivation of draft evaders.

Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau makes progress yet doesn't take https://kyivindependent.com/nabu-makes-some-progress/ on top presidential allies
Critics question the NABU's ability and willingness to investigate top-level graft as there are no charges against some of the president's top allies facing accusations of corruption and other wrongdoing.

⚡️Former advisor to presidential office charged https://kyivindependent.com/former-advisor-to-presidential-office-charged-with-embezzling-almost-2-5-million-from-ukrainian-railways/ with embezzling almost $2.5 million from Ukrainian Railways.

⚡️SBU detains https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-man-alleged-of-supplying-russians-with-materials-for-anti-tank-defenses/ man alleged of supplying Russians with materials for anti-tank defenses.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN

• APR 2, 2024

■ Unfavorable ratios: More 🇷🇺 strikes, fewer 🇺🇦 ones; continued 🇷🇺 missile attacks ■ More combat engagements with corresponding increase in casualties ■ Equipment losses include large APV losses ■ Poternet: +61 🇷🇺 KIA added

@Igotjelly

"On Wednesday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released an unclassified assessment reflecting the view of seven government agencies which reviewed more than 1,500 "anomalous health incidents" across over 90 countries"

That's a lot!

But the reports that it was not hostile action seem to be rejected by some ..

"In a statement, CIA Director William Burns said that the findings "do not call into question the experiences and real health issues that US government personnel and their family members - including CIA's own officers - have reported while serving our country".....
In an internal memo obtained by CBS, the BBC's US partner, the US defence department - which was not involved in the seven-agency assessment - also said that the symptoms of Havana Syndrome are "genuine and compelling".

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Russian army conducted what Forbes describes as perhaps one of the largest tank offensives of the entire war on Saturday.
"It culminated in one of the largest tank battles of Russia's 25-month war in Ukraine. When the smoke cleared, the Russians had abandoned a third of their tanks on the road west of the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine," the article states.
The ability of Ukrainians to repel such large and heavily armed Russian forces indicates a notable trend, noted by journalists. Despite shortages of key ammunition, Ukrainian brigades have demonstrated the capability to mount a fierce defense, often utilizing mines, artillery, anti-tank missiles, and explosive drones from a first-person perspective.

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, in an interview with the Financial Times, emphasized the need for Europe to establish defense technology champions through closer cooperation among countries, each specializing in different types of military technologies.

According to The Independent, Russia has the capacity to produce a greater number of FAB-series cruise bombs compared to Ukraine, thereby replenishing its own stockpile of anti-aircraft munitions.
The article highlights the significant damage caused by Moscow's recently modified FAB-1500s. While Ukraine also utilizes guided bombs, such as the Direct Attack Munitions System (JDAM), there is a notable disparity in the quantity of American weapons available.
John Forman, a former British defense attache in Moscow, pointed out that while FAB bombs may be less effective than JDAM, they are considerably more cost-effective. Moreover, FABs have a launch range of approximately 40 km, requiring Ukraine to rely on interceptor missiles with longer ranges, which are in shorter supply.

SVT reports that queues for projectile testing represent another vulnerability in European defense production.
Stefan Krol, head of the center at the Swedish arms company Bofors, explained to reporters that the testing center cannot operate in five shifts due to the need for daylight.
As a result, there is a year-long queue at the center. These challenges, along with shortages in production capacity, access to raw materials, and personnel, are widespread across Europe.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has announced preparations for war, indicating that military unit training has commenced and weapons and equipment are being supplied. [I don't think this means imminent war - a subtle translation phrasing problem]

The Mykolaiv region ranks among the top three most heavily mined areas in Ukraine. International partners are aiding in clearing its lands of the dangerous Russian mines. The team from "The HALO Trust," the world's largest non-governmental humanitarian demining organization, has been operating in the region for a year.

Kyiv students have developed a new Ukrainian armored car called Inguar3.

Rape, torture and other sexual crimes. This is what Russian soldiers did to ordinary Ukrainian men—including priests—in occupied Kherson. These are their stories as told in a new investigation by slidstvo_info. Today, many other men and women remain under Russian occupation. https://t.me/United24media/20346

Number of FPV drone strikes on infantry (graph above) and number of drone drops on infantry per month
Blue columns—Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on Russians.

Nigel Gould Davies:

The balance of resources favours the West: its economic superiority over Russia is much greater than during the Cold War. But the balance of resolve favours Russia: it is mobilising its capacity more effectively than the coalition of open democracies that supports Ukraine.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2024.2332057

Short and all too accurate summary :(

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪 Germany will provide 576 million euros for Czech initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine, which will cover the cost of 180 thousand shells - German Ministry of Defense

The Russian city of Belgorod came under fire again. The authorities reported 8 wounded and 10 missiles hit
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that the fire was from RM-70 Vampire MLRS. Air defense allegedly shot down 17 missiles.

Kuleba is flying to The Hague
On Tuesday, the Foreign Minister will visit The Hague, where he will hold a series of meetings and take part in a conference on ensuring that Russia is punished for crimes committed in the war against Ukraine.

At night, the drone also attacked the TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Russia. Telegram channel Baza writes that it hit one of the installations. Officials have not commented on the attack
TANECO is one of the ten largest refineries in Russia. Its refining capacity is over 16 million tons of oil per year.

🇺🇸 The Pentagon said https://theins.ru/en/politics/270425** that at last year's NATO summit in Vilnius, a Defense Ministry official showed symptoms of "Havana syndrome."
At the same time, the White House did not confirm Russia's involvement in the Havana Syndrome cases.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has declared Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan a suspect in calls for the genocide of Ukrainians

A father by the portrait of his son who died defending Ukraine

This picture has just made me cry. For all the young (mostly) men all over the world sent to fight and die before they have the maturity to understand what's being taken from them. And for their parents and loved ones, of course. Reminds me of a very moving Russian film I saw about a grandmother visiting her grandson at the front in some - nameless, I think - war.
Re Havana Syndrome; I always thought it was more likely to be some strange environmental/pollution caused illness, or even something psychosomatic, rather than deliberate hostility/poisoning. But since Navalny's death I have to say my view has changed. I would no longer be remotely surprised if it turns out to be some kind of poisoning by Russia (Putin and his associates, essentially). I do wish they could get to the bottom of it.