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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
DancesWithDucks · 29/03/2024 11:29

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia on March 28 vetoed the annual renewal of the panel of experts monitoring U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-uses-un-veto-to-block-renewal-of-north-korea-sanctions-monitors/

The Russian propaganda network recently uncovered by Czech intelligence paid European and Belgian lawmakers to spread pro-Kremlin disinformation, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo said in Brussels on March 28. https://kyivindependent.com/belgian-pm-says-meps-russian-propaganda/

Poland is investigating a Russian propaganda network linked to Russian intelligence after Czechia uncovered the operations of a pro-Kremlin network that spread anti-Ukraine and anti-EU disinformation, the Polish Internal Security Agency (ABW) announced on March 28. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-investigating-pro-kremlin-propaganda-network/

The U.S. and U.K. are investigating several cryptocurrency transactions valued at more than $20 billion that passed through a Russian-based virtual exchange to Russia, Bloomberg reported on March 28. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-and-uk-tracking-20-billion-in-crypto-transfers-to-russia/

⚡️ISW: Russian forces have seized 505 square kilometers https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-forces-have-seized-505-square-kilometers-since-october-offensive/ since October offensive.

⚡️ Media: Czech-led initiative concludes deals for 1 million shells for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/media-czech-led-initiative-concludes-deals-for-1-million-rounds-for-ukraine/
A Czech-led initiative had concluded contracts for 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, with shipments expected already in April, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported on March 28, citing undisclosed sources.
Corriere della Sera wrote that in addition to the originally announced 800,000 shells, Czech officials found 200,000 more rounds to be purchased for Ukraine. The newspaper said that the estimated cost of the contracts amounted to 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion).

Poland and Ukraine agreed to search for "mutually satisfactory solutions" to issues related to agricultural trade, said a joint communique issued on March 28 following Polish-Ukrainian consultations in Warsaw. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-ukraine/

⚡️Syrskyi: https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-500-000-mobilization-figure-significantly-reduced/
The number of people who need to be mobilized has been “significantly reduced” from the initially proposed 500,000, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief said on March 29.

Reuters: The British company Evolve Dynamics is focusing on developing drones for the Ukrainian military that are able to withstand electronic warfare, Reuters reported on March 28. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-uk-company-developing-ew-proof-drones-for-ukraine/

⚡️Security measures to be increased https://kyivindependent.com/security-measures-to-be-increased-in-kyiv-following-missile-strikes-threats-of-russian-saboteurs/ in Kyiv following missile strikes, threats of Russian saboteurs.

⚡️ NATO-Ukraine Council convenes https://kyivindependent.com/nato-ukraine-council-convenes-over-russias-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure/ due to Russia's attacks on energy infrastructure.
The NATO-Ukraine Council held an extraordinary meeting on March 28 at Kyiv's request in response to Russia's missile attacks on critical infrastructure, Ukraine's Mission to NATO said.

⚡️ Germany delivers https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-ukraine-another-military-supply-including-ammunition-for-leopard-tanks-artillery-shells-uavs/ tank ammunition, shells, drones, armored vehicles to Ukraine.
In its latest supply, Berlin provided Ukraine with five Warthog repair and recovery armored vehicles, nine Warthog command armored vehicles, one Dachs armored engineer vehicle, ammunition for Leopard tanks, 18,000 155 mm artillery shells, 24,000 rounds of 40 mm ammunition, 2,056 anti-tank weapons RGW 90 Matador, and more.

⚡️Poland scrambles jets during https://kyivindependent.com/poland-scrambles-jets-during-russian-missile-attack/ Russian missile attack.

⚡️ Swedish defense minister: 'Deliberations ongoing' for transfer of Gripen fighters to Ukraine.https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-defense-minister-ukraine-needs-shells-quickly-ramping-up-production-can-take-years/

Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation dismissed reports on March 28 about Russia's preparations to launch a new offensive against Kharkiv, saying that Moscow currently "does not have the resources" for such an operation. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-dismisses-reports-about-russias-possible-offensive-against-kharkiv/

⚡️Germany charges 5 people for sale https://kyivindependent.com/germany-charges-5-for-sale-of-gas-turbines-to-russian-state-owned-company-in-occupied-crimea/ of gas turbines to Russian state-owned company in occupied Crimea.

⚡️ Russian proxy: Russian warplane 'crashes' off Crimean coast. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-russian-warplane-crashes-near-crimea/

⚡️US warns https://kyivindependent.com/us-warns-american-companies-to-stop-shipping-products-that-may-end-up-in-russian-weapons/ American companies to stop shipping products that may end up in Russian weapons.

The latest addition to our Explaining Ukraine series is a history of Ukraine’s Cossacks — a historic group of semi-nomadic warriors whose legacy continues to shape Ukrainian identity today. https://kyivindependent.com/who-were-the-ukrainian-cossacks/

⚡️Russian authorities targeted https://kyivindependent.com/russia-sought-out-members-of-lgbtq-community-in-kherson-region/ members of LGBTQ+ community in Kherson region.

⚡️ WAR IN - MAR 29, 2024
■ Airstrikes up on both sides but more on the 🇷🇺 one
■ Artillery strike ratio continues to improve
■ Engagements & casualties below 7-day avg
■ Equipment losses slightly above; most air defence systems destroyed in 2024 so far

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 29/03/2024 11:44

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Zelenskyy expressed concerns about the Russian Federation's preparations for a new offensive in May-June, stating that Ukraine is not prepared for it.

The war against Ukraine is costing Russia $300 million a day, according to the Wall Street Journal.
While Putin announced economic growth of 3.6% in 2023, experts attribute this to trillions of rubles invested by the Kremlin in the military-industrial complex. However, they caution that this strategy will not sustain the Russian economy in the long term, with signs of exhaustion already apparent.
Analysts estimate that $135 billion remains in the Russian National Welfare Fund, but the Kremlin only has access to $58 billion in liquid assets such as dollars, stocks, and bonds. The majority of the funds are in Chinese currency and gold. Putin withdrew $38 billion from the fund last year.
The WSJ highlights that if Putin appeals to the Fund again this year, there may be no funds left, prompting him to consider unpopular decisions such as raising taxes for Russians.

Following today's meeting between Shmyhal and Tusk, it was announced that Ukraine and Poland will jointly control the border crossing points. The approval of the European Commission is expected.

Russia has a large number of aerial bombs in its armory and continues to upgrade them — Nataliya Humenyuk.

🇩🇪Germany has announced a large military aid package to Ukraine. It includes:
▫️5 Warthog tracked repair and recovery vehicles;
▫️9 Warthog all-terrain tracked command vehicles;
▫️6 WISENT 1 demining systems;
▫️2 BEAVER bridge pavers;
▫️Engineering BREM Bergepanzer 2 and BREM 2A1 Dachs;
▫️9 mine trawls;
▫️3 vehicles for border security;
▫️6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros fuel tankers;
▫️14 reconnaissance Vector UAVs;
▫️30 reconnaissance RQ-35 Heidrun UAVs;
▫️five jammers for drones;
▫️ ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks;
▫️18,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition;
▫️SATCOM surveillance system;
▫️330 infrared cameras;
▫️2,056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers;
▫️70 GMG grenade launchers.
Missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which are essential for Ukrainian air defense, as well as 20 Marder armored combat vehicles and other equipment, are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Shmyhal, currently visiting Warsaw, met with the President of Poland, Duda.

French President Macron believes that inviting Putin to the G20 summit this year in Brazil requires the consent of all other members of this association.

EU membership is deemed the most suitable option for Armenia, according to Alen Simonyan, Speaker of the Parliament.

⚡️In Armenia, the broadcasting of programs by Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov on "Radio Liberty" has been blocked.

DancesWithDucks · 29/03/2024 11:52

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

According to Zelensky, despite the lack of artillery, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to stabilize the situation at the front, but to further deter the Russian army, the Ukrainian military needs new supplies of weapons, including Patriot air defense systems and artillery.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone conversation with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is delaying the vote on a bill to provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine
The President briefed him on the situation on the battlefield and emphasized that in the past week alone, Ukrainian cities and communities had been hit by 190 missiles, 140 Shaheds, and 700 KABs-500. Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant has been put out of commission. Zelensky explained to the speaker how critical military aid is for Ukraine now and that it should be approved as soon as possible.

Russia has tortured more than 5,000 Ukrainian civilians, says Ukraine's prosecutor general
Andriy Kostin urged the United Nations to take action on Russia’s imprisonment of Ukrainian civilians, adding that work is underway to put together a list of all those captured.

Almost all of the missiles, drones and guided bombs that Russia has launched at Ukraine since the beginning of 2024 have hit civilian targets.
"Only 3% of these Russian missiles, drones and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% hit civilian infrastructure," said Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

A total of 6 people, including a child, were wounded in the nighttime massive Russian attack. The enemy shelled energy infrastructure and civilian facilities

Ukraine received 31 Abrams tanks, while about 3,700 Abrams machines of the earliest modifications are aging in long-term storage sites and are unlikely to ever be used

Two years ago, on March 28, 2022, Ukrainian warriors liberated Irpin

Member of the Russian Parliament Andrei Lugovoy called for humanitarian disaster in Kharkiv to force the local population escape to the West
Russians openly say that their goal is to expel Ukrainians from Ukraine.

The Russian People's Council under the leadership of Moscow Patriarch Kirill adopted an "order" calling the Russian invasion of Ukraine a "holy war" and stating that "the entire territory of modern Ukraine should be included in the zone of Russia's exclusive influence."

Ukrainian Defender Serhii Korolkov lost his parents during the Russian strike on Khmelnytskyi on March 22, 2024. This is him on the debris of their family home.
Serhii's son is also in the Ukrainian Army. His daughter-in-law is in intensive care after being wounded by the Russian strike.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
MissConductUS · 29/03/2024 14:54

notimagain · 28/03/2024 12:10

Andriy Kulchytskyi, the head of the military research laboratory at the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise (KNDISE), stated that the Russian Zircon missile, used in attacks on Kyiv on February 7 and March 25, fails to achieve its primary objective due to navigational issues. In an interview with "Suspilne," Kulchytskyi explained that despite claims of superiority, the missile's actual combat performance falls short. Preliminary examination of wreckage suggests deviations from intended flight paths and improper functionality. [@notimagainI guess this happens with every missile type tho?]

Yep....you almost always have a theoretical level of reliability/accuracy, or perhaps even demonstrated reliability and accuracy often based on tests where the missile is lovingly handled with kid gloves by the designers and factory engineers ..that's often the value seen in the glossy brochures....

...and then there's the reality of what happens in the field when the missile or whatever is subject to the tender loving care of (?conscript) engineers, etc....the thing sits in the rain and snow for days on end waiting to be fired, and then on the day there's possibly a rush to fire and not everything is done in an optimal manner.........

Edited

This is why the US Army maintains multiple proving grounds for the realistic testing of weapons and ammunition. The largest (113 square miles) is in Aberdeen, Maryland Before test firing, artillery rounds are soaked in tanks of salt water for days; missiles are dropped off towers, etc. They are really good at making things fail so they can be improved.

One nice thing about being a large country is that there is plenty of room for military installations. Even West Point, which is an odd hybrid of an Army base and university campus, has over 16,000 acres of land.

Aberdeen Proving Ground - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Proving_Ground

MagicFox · 29/03/2024 21:45

I prefer Chip Chapman's idea that rather than talking about a pre-war period, we should be talking about preserving the long peace

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 29/03/2024 22:08

MagicFox · 29/03/2024 21:45

I prefer Chip Chapman's idea that rather than talking about a pre-war period, we should be talking about preserving the long peace

I like that!

DancesWithDucks · 30/03/2024 11:22

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukrainian retreat looms without US support, ATACMS are ‘the answer.’ https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukrainian-retreat-looms-without-us-support-atacms-are-the-answer/
“If you are not taking steps forward to prepare another counteroffensive, Russia will take them,” he said: “That’s what we learned: If you don’t do it, Russia will do it.”

⚡️ Polish FM: Transport of shells under Czech initiative 'already being organized.' https://kyivindependent.com/polish-fm/
The transport of artillery shells for Ukraine secured through the Czech-led initiative is already "being organized," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on March 29, according to Wnp.pl media outlet.

The risk of escalation related to the supply of long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to Ukraine is not as high as it used to be, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Charles Brown said on March 28, according to Defense One. https://kyivindependent.com/top-us-general-sending-atacms-to-ukraine-no-longer-so-risky/

⚡️ Zelensky appoints eх-security council secretary Danilov as ambassador to Moldova. https://kyivindependent.com/ekh-security-council-secretary-danilov-to-become-ukrainian-ambassador-to-moldova/

⚡️NATO military chief Lieutenant Admiral Rob Bauer: No imminent threat of Russian attack on NATO, urges https://kyivindependent.com/nato-official-no-imminent-threat-of-russian-attack-on-nato-urges-alliance-to-become-more-prepared/ alliance to 'become more prepared.'

⚡️ Europe in ‘pre-war’ era, warns Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, https://kyivindependent.com/europe-in-pre-war-era-warns-tusk-says-literally-any-scenario-is-possible/ adding ‘literally any scenario is possible.’
He warned Europe is in a situation “not seen since 1945.”

⚡️Zelensky outlines https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-outlines-security-council-priorities-after-danilovs-dismissal/ Security Council priorities after Danilov's dismissal.
He said the council's priorities would be "paying particular attention to our state's sanctions policy." Cybersecurity and the implementation of security and war-related decisions were also listed.
Zelensky said Danilov would continue his work in the diplomatic field.

⚡️ Zelensky: Russia targets Kaniv, Dniester hydroelectric power plants overnight. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-targets-kaniv-dniester-hydroelectric-power-plants-overnight/

⚡️WP: Zelensky defends https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-defends-ukrainian-strategy-of-targeting-russian-oil-refineries-emphasizes-self-defense/ Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries, emphasizes self-defense.

⚡️Romania says https://kyivindependent.com/romania-says-it-found-possible-drone-fragments-on-its-territory-following-russian-attack-on-ukraine/ it found possible drone fragments on its territory following Russian attack on Ukraine.

Ukraine will receive more than $9 billion in financial aid in March, including 4.5 billion euros ($4.9 billion) from the European Union through its four-year Ukraine Facility, $1.5 billion in loans from the World Bank, $880 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), $1.5 billion from Canada, and $230 million from Japan, according to Shmyhal. https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-to-receive-record-budget-financing-from-allies-in-march/

⚡️ Belgium pledges $107 million https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-to-allocate-107-million-to-ukraine-for-f-16-service/ to Ukraine for F-16 aircraft maintenance.

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have prevented "a terrorist attack in a crowded place" in Stavropol Krai in southern Russia, the Russian state-owned news agency TASS wrote on March 29. https://kyivindependent.com/media-fsb-terrorist-attack/

⚡️ Ukrainian Navy confirms Russia downed its own Su-27 aircraft https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-navy-jet/ over Crimea.

Zelensky tasked Ukrainian authorities to address the prevalence and impact of online gambling after a petition demanding restrictions passed the threshold for presidential consideration within a few hours on March 29. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-casinos/

An officer of the commander-in-chief's assistants' department has been charged with negligent homicide, misappropriation of arms, and related charges over the death of former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi's aide last November, the State Bureau of Investigation said on March 29. https://kyivindependent.com/officer-charged-with-negligent-homicide-over-death-of-zaluzhnyis-aide/

⚡️ Zelensky publishes declaration https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-publishes-declaration-unveiling-more-than-317-000-of-income-for-his-family-in-2023/ of $317,000 in family income in 2023.

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-49-200-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ identities of over 49,200 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

⚡️Minister: Nearly 1,800 cultural institutions have suffered damage https://kyivindependent.com/1-795-cultural-institutions-in-liberated-ukrainian-areas-confirmed-to-have-suffered-damage/ in liberated territories of Ukraine.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 30, 2024
■ Airstrike ratio up, artillery one down & 38 missile strikes
■ Fewer casualties despite more combat engagements
■ Equipment losses below 7-day average but 2nd most tanks destroyed this year so far
■ Oryx: 2719added; 30-day ratio at 2.7x
■ KIU: +46 officers; 30-day average of 7.7 per day

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 30/03/2024 11:55

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia has doubled its imports of nitrocellulose, which is necessary for the production of artillery ammunition, in particular from American, German, and Taiwanese companies, — The Wall Street Journal.
China also increased its supplies of this compound after the implementation of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the European Union, which prohibit exports of any kind to the Russian Armed Forces.

The Czech Security and Information Service has exposed a Russian bribery scheme targeting politicians from six European countries—Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary—on the eve of the European Parliament elections. Czech Deník N and German Der Spiegel report, citing investigation data.
Funding was channeled through the propaganda portal Voice of Europe, which is linked to Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian state traitor, and Artem Marchevsky, a former producer of the pro-Kremlin TV channel "112 Ukraine."

During a discussion at the "Kyiv StratCom Forum 2024," Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, revealed that the Russians have erected over 2,000 communication towers in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Skibitsky highlighted how Russia employs various methods to cut off these areas from accessing accurate information.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda emphasized that NATO's primary objective currently is to aid Ukraine. Lithuania currently allocates 2.75% of its GDP to defense and is prepared to raise this figure in the future. While the president acknowledges NATO's commitment to protecting every inch of the Alliance, he also stressed that Lithuania takes its security seriously

U.S. Defense Ministry spokesperson Ryder mentioned that U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and Ukrainian Defense Minister Umierov conferred on Ukraine's requirements for artillery shells and air defense. They also discussed the ongoing situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, including Russia's recent missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine requires ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers to target occupied Crimea, thereby mitigating the aerial threat from that direction.

In Russia, the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile underwent modernization, according to Defense Express. The missile now features two warheads, each weighing approximately 800 kg, along with additional elements posing significant risks to humans.

Russians destroy Ukrainian churches and torture priests in the occupied territories, — Institute for Religious Freedom.
Ukrainian religious leaders continue to be imprisoned, tortured, and killed in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Those who did not agree to collaborate and refused to submit to Russian religious centers are subject to repression.

The Latvian national airline airBaltic will resume flights from Ukraine to Riga, Vilnius, and Tallinn as soon as the security situation allows, and may deploy five of its own aircraft in Kyiv in three to six months after the resumption of flights, says Martin Gauss, CEO of airBaltic.

British intelligence showed the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Sevastopol on March 24, — one building construction of the communication center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was damaged.
“Two Ropukha-class landing ships, tanks, and one “Yuri Ivanov” class reconnaissance ship were also damaged in these strikes,” the review says.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 30/03/2024 12:08

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

During a large-scale missile strike on March 22, Russian troops completely destroyed the Zmiiv thermal power plant in Kharkiv oblast
It was one of the largest thermal power plants in the Kharkiv oblast.

The Russians are seriously circulating photos of postage stamps purportedly from Ukrposhta (the Ukrainian state post office), which depict the burning Crocus City Hall and contain the caption "Payback is inevitable."
These stamps are fake and have nothing to do with Ukrposhta. [there really are no depths to which Russia will not sink]

"I love, but now, I am not loved,” wrote Oleksanda Kostetska. Her husband, Kostyantyn Miroshnychenko, was killed on the front line 2 weeks ago

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 31/03/2024 03:27

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, held the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on March 27 and 28 and approved an ideological and policy document tying several Kremlin ideological narratives together in an apparent effort to form a wider nationalist ideology around the war in Ukraine and Russia’s expansionist future.
  • The ROC MP intensified Kremlin rhetoric about Russia’s war in Ukraine and cast it as an existential and civilizational “holy war,” a significant inflection for Russian authorities who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as any kind of “war.”
  • The ROC MP called for the codification of elements of the Russkiy Mir and may be gauging public support for the formal inclusion of ethnic Ukrainians and Belarusians in the Kremlin’s concept of the Russian nation.
  • The ROC MP heavily emphasized Russia’s need for traditional family values and an updated migration policy to counter Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis.
  • The ROC MP appears to be combining previously parallel Kremlin narrative efforts into a relatively cohesive ideology focusing on national identity and demographic resurgence that promises Russians a period of national rejuvenation in exchange for social and civic duties.
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed that materiel shortages from delays in Western security assistance are constraining Ukrainian forces and forcing Ukraine to conduct a strategic defense.
  • The Russian military likely expanded the target set for Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure to include hydroelectric power plants.
  • Russia vetoed an annual United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution extending a monitoring panel tracking adherence to UN sanctions against North Korea on March 28.
  • The Kremlin appears to have succeeded in pressuring Telegram to further censor extremist content following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, highlighting the Kremlin’s ability to pressure significant actors within the Russian information space to act in its interests.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 29.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is preparing for Russia’s semi-annual spring conscription cycle, which will begin on April 1.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue law enforcement crackdowns, including against the Crimean Tatar ethnic minority, to consolidate control over occupied Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield initiative, not contest the battlefield initiative, and continue to threaten Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
  • Russian missile strikes destroyed one of the largest thermal power plants in Kharkiv Oblast on March 22, as continued delays in US security assistance degrade Ukraine’s air defense umbrella and increase Russia’s ability to significantly damage Ukraine’s energy grid.
  • Russian forces are demonstrating technological and tactical adaptations and are increasingly using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on the frontlines of Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian military is reportedly forming mobile fire groups to mitigate against Ukrainian drone strike threats but will likely struggle to field these groups at the required scale in the near term.
  • Russian authorities continue to escalate legal pressure against migrants in the wake of the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, prompting both Russian authorities to increase deportations and migrants to voluntarily leave Russia.
  • Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 30.
  • Russian mobilized personnel continue to suffer high casualties while fighting in Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 10:23

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Czech-led artillery initiative still lacks funds says Estonian defense minister. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-led-artillery-initiative-still-lacks-funds-says-estonian-defense-minister/

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia mobilizing around 30,000 soldiers monthly. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-mobilizing-around-30-000-soldiers-monthly/
“(Russia) can highly likely continue to absorb losses and continue attacks aiming at wearing down Ukrainian forces,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest report.

⚡️80% of DTEK's energy capacity damaged, destroyed after Russian March attacks https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-says-80-of-companys-facilities-damaged-destroyed-after-russian-attacks-in-march/
In March, Russian attacks damaged or completely destroyed 80% of the thermal generating capacity of Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, the company's Executive Director, Dmytro Sakharuk, said on March 30. [80%? Jesus!]

⚡️Russia is conducting raids on raids on dormitories and apartments known to house Central Asian migrants and is carrying out mass deportations in response to the recent terrorist attack on Moscow, Russian independent media outlet Meduza reported on March 30. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-mass-deportations-migrants/

⚡️France to send Ukraine air defense https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-send-ukraine-air-defense-missiles-armored-vehicles/* missiles, armored vehicles. *
Paris will "unlock a new batch of Aster 30 missiles" for the SAMP/T MAMBA system, the French equivalent of the U.S. Patriot, in response to Ukraine's air defense shortage.

⚡️Zelensky says more https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-more-government-reshuffles-to-come/ government reshuffles to come.

⚡️Media: EU bans https://kyivindependent.com/eu-bans-flights-of-turkish-airline-operated-from-russia/ Turkish airline Southwind due to links with Russia.

Russia has now withdrawn all its major vessels from occupied Crimea except for the rocket carrier Cyclone, which has never launched a missile, a Navy spokesperson said on March 30. https://kyivindependent.com/navy-russia-withdraws-most-valuable-ships-from-occupied-crimea/

What we know about hypersonic Zircon missiles https://kyivindependent.com/hypersonic-zircon-missiles-russias-latest-threat/ – Russia's latest threat
The Zircon missile is a relatively new entrant into Russia's arsenal of weapons targeting cities like Kyiv, meaning there's relatively little information on it so far.
"Statements of the Russians regarding Zircon contain a significant share of propaganda and psychological influence," Andrii Kharuk, a historian and weapons expert, told Kyiv Independent.
"Therefore, it is possible that its capabilities are exaggerated," he added.

⚡️Governor: Almost 10,000 'dragon's teeth https://kyivindependent.com/governor-almost-10-000-dragons-teeth-anti-tank-structures-built-in-kyiv-oblast/ anti-tank structures built in Kyiv Oblast.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal's income declaration for 2023 revealed his earnings consisted of a Hr 974,845 ($25,000) salary, while his wife and daughter earned Hr 7,866,994 ($200,800), Ukrinform reported on March 30. https://kyivindependent.com/income-declaration-suggests-shmyhals-family-earns-8-times-his-salary/

UK Defense Ministry: Russia mobilizing around 30,000 soldiers monthly

“(Russia) can highly likely continue to absorb losses and continue attacks aiming at wearing down Ukrainian forces,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest report.

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-mobilizing-around-30-000-soldiers-monthly

DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 10:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands announced that NATO will temporarily deploy Patriot missile defense systems along the borders with Russia.
"This summer, the Netherlands has decided to deploy the long-range Patriot air defense system in Lithuania for several weeks. Dutch military units will undergo training in Lithuania alongside units of the Lithuanian army," the statement reads.

Sebastien Lecornu, the head of France's Ministry of Defense, announced that France plans to transfer hundreds of pieces of old but still usable equipment to Ukraine in 2024 and early 2025, after replacing them with new ones.
Additionally, France is preparing a new batch of Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for the SAMP/T air defense system and is developing remote-controlled ammunition, which could be delivered to Ukraine as early as this summer.

Ukraine is getting more ammunition for its German Gepard air defense systems, according to Bild, citing a source.

The US Government Accountability Office (U.S. GAO) reported that the US Ministry of Defense has established new organizations to efficiently deliver an unprecedented amount of weapons to Ukraine, even across long distances.
However, during the preparation of the report, it was found that the Pentagon lacks clear guidelines for tracking equipment shipments, leading to potentially inaccurate delivery data.
The document, seen by Voice of America, highlights recommendations to enhance the Ministry of Defense's efforts in tracking and ensuring the proper use of American-made equipment in Ukraine.
Furthermore, the GAO recommends more effective monitoring of the spending of the $44 billion allocated by four US agencies for economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, as well as the $42 billion designated for defense and security assistance.
As of December 2023, nearly $34 billion of this funding has been disbursed.

In his address to the Germans, Scholz reminded of the need to support Ukraine

The manufacturer of Taurus missiles faces a production shutdown due to a lack of orders, as reported by Spiegel. This interruption affects not only the manufacturer but also its suppliers, many of which are small to medium-sized companies.
Obtaining raw materials for new orders is challenging due to global demand, particularly for explosives components. Thomas Gottschild, CEO of German company MBDA, highlighted the importance of maintaining a base level of production in the arms industry to sustain supply chains, keep equipment up-to-date, and retain employee expertise.

According to RMF24, sheep illegally crossed the Ukrainian border overnight. Radars detected a group of unidentified individuals approaching the border, only to discover later that it was actually a flock of sheep. The curly-haired intruders peacefully crossed the border near the Korchevaya-Krakovets checkpoint and began grazing. https://t.me/United24media/20265

UNITED24Media

According to RMF24, sheep illegally crossed the Ukrainian border overnight. Radars detected a group of unidentified individuals approaching the border, only to discover later that it was actually a flock of sheep. The curly-haired intruders peacefully...

https://t.me/United24media/20265

DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 10:54

Ragnar Gudmundsson
AT ragnarbjartur

WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 31, 2024
■ Best air & artillery strike ratios this month, continuedmissile strikes
■ Relatively low casualties despite an increase in combat engagements
■ Massive equipment losses including heavy artillery losses & most air defence systems of 2024
■ March: 3rd biggest month in terms in casualties, biggest for equipment

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 10:56

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🤡 "If the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall," a new statement from Elon Musk
This time, the billionaire recalled https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw that last year he "recommended" Ukraine to consolidate its position and attract all resources for defense. "Any fool" could have predicted that attacking a larger army without air superiority "was a tragic loss of life for Ukraine."
Finally, Musk traditionally advised to resolve the war through negotiations.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw%29

DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 11:01

Wishing everyone here a peaceful and happy Easter.

It's hard to forget the grim situation in Ukraine and sometimes it's hard not to feel a bit guilty for living in a safe situation when Ukraine is fighting actually for Europe's safety; but here we are, a small but very determined band who still care and still root for Ukraine. We do not forget and we pass information on, donate, raise awareness and support the land that is bearing the burden of Russian malice.

May we all have a joyous Easter.

MissConductUS · 31/03/2024 11:02

"If the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall," a new statement from Elon Musk
This time, the billionaire recalled https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw^^ that last year he "recommended" Ukraine to consolidate its position and attract all resources for defense. "Any fool" could have predicted that attacking a larger army without air superiority "was a tragic loss of life for Ukraine."
Finally, Musk traditionally advised to resolve the war through negotiations.

Musk suffers from a severe case of the Dunning Kruger Effect when it comes to military matters. "Any fool" indeed.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw

prettybird · 31/03/2024 12:36

ODFO Musk Hmm

mids2019 · 31/03/2024 12:40

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68692195

How much credence are we playing on this? I think for a national leader to say such a thing it can't be dismissed out of hand. I don't see any other European leader playing down the statement.

I think long term we need to cautious and I am starting to wonder if my children's generation are to experience major conflict either in Europe or the world?

Polish helicopters fly over soldiers in their tanks while crossing the Vistula River during the DRAGON-24 NATO military defense drills on March 04, 2024

War a real threat and Europe not ready, warns Poland's Tusk

Donald Tusk warns of a "pre-war era" as Russian attacks leave swathes of Ukraine without power.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68692195

DancesWithDucks · 31/03/2024 13:22

The warnings are clear, consistent in the last weeks and loud.

However, others have said that we are at peace now and hopefully we will remain that way.

We desperately need to re-arm though and work together, because if we don't war -will- come. Putin scents weakness like a shark and he's made it clear he has ambitions to expand further.

Many people think that war won't come. Personally I think there's a high chance it will (not a certainty). I hope from the bottom of my heart I'm wrong.

Igotjelly · 31/03/2024 13:47

To be honest I really don’t think war with NATO will come any time soon. Poland is in a unique situation because of its border with Ukraine and proximity to Russia. It makes sense that the Poles would be amongst the most outspoken on any threat.

TheABC · 31/03/2024 15:25

We've been fortunate to know peace for a generation in Europe. However, given thr speed of change happening in the world we cannot take it for granted that our kids will know the same.

"If you peace, prepare for war."

TheABC · 31/03/2024 15:33

*If you want peace, prepare for war.

Damn typo!

MagicFox · 31/03/2024 17:02

Tusk isn’t the only European leader to have said this. In fact they are all using similar language. I actually really dislike the abstract nature of the “pre-war” statements. If they know something concrete they should say what that is. Absent that, my opinion is that what is being drawn attention to is that Europe must remilitarise and rearm. Urgently. We have a short window to do it. That’s because all of our militaries have been put out to pasture and are seriously behind. It takes a long time to adequately build. So this = a window of opportunity for Russia. If they do want to provoke NATO or make incursions into a Baltic state (as oppose to non-NATO territory) then when better to do it? I think this is what’s behind the ‘possibly in less than 5 years’ comments. Whether or not that’s rational on Russia’s part is another argument.

I am also very worried about the next generation and war. But we are in a very different context (possibly more dangerous depending on how you look at it). We are now in a nuclear age. It’s in everybody’s interests to keep war from escalating to the kind of European or global conflagration we saw in the teens and 40s. Russia won’t go away - how will we manage relations with it? In a conventional conflict with Russia and the west wargames suggest it always ends in nuclear use. So surely there have to be Cold War style rules established to manage this new age of great power conflict? What kind of war are we imagining? One where we all die in Eastern Europe trying to hold Russia off? One where we all die because russia is losing and goes nuclear? One where russia annexes as much land as it can avoiding NATO ala Ukraine? One where the west and Russia fight proxy wars amidst a larger Cold War? It’s a genuine question.

Right now Eastern European governments are impressing as hard as they can upon the west that Europe must be strong enough to defeat Russia so it won’t try. Yes we have to take an economic hit right now to do that, but their point is that it’s cheaper in the long run than the catastrophic scenario that not doing so invites - what if Putin decides to take a reckless gamble in the window of opportunity? Anyway, this is my current line of (non expert) thinking.

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 31/03/2024 17:03

TheABC · 31/03/2024 15:33

*If you want peace, prepare for war.

Damn typo!

Sun Tzu said it better.

“Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:
1 He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2 He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.
4 He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5 He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

This applies rather neatly to Ukraine. The Russians lack essentials one, two, and three. We are on shaky ground with four and five.

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