Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

According to a poll conducted by Le Journal du dimanche, the majority of French citizens endorse the reinstatement of conscription.
Specifically, 65% of men and 63% of women express support for the reintroduction of compulsory military service.

The French are maybe a bit more relaxed about national service/civic service in some form than some nationalities but even so I'm somewhat surprised at those numbers.

Given the staff at that paper went out on strike a while back when the paper fell into the clutches of owners who introduced a very right of centre editorial stance I wonder if the poll was simply of their own readership.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights from 3 days

American media say that the ISIS affiliate Wilayat Khorasan may be behind the attack on Crocus City Hall

⚡️⚡️In occupied Sevastopol, large landing ships Yamal and Azov, a communications center and several infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were struck, Stratcom of the Ukrainian Armed Forces says

🇲🇩The hybrid war unleashed by the Russian authorities is in full swing in Moldova. Russia has not abandoned its intentions, it has changed its tactics, Moldovan Interior Minister Adrian Efros said.

🇬🇧The UK announced a new £60 million military aid package for Ukraine
The package includes advanced new surveillance drones and air defence systems.

❗️Russian army conducted 299 attacks on 12 settlements of Zaporizhzhia oblast during the last 24 hours alone, according to the Head of Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration.

The use of FPV drones against civilians in the south of Ukraine has increased by 40%, — Armed Forces of Ukraine
An increase has been reported over the past 24 hours, with 234 attacks carried out by FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.

🇪🇸📩A Spanish court has ruled https://www.eldiario.es/politica/audiencia-nacional-ordena-bloquear-telegram-espana-forma-cautelar_1_11237362.html to temporarily block Telegram in the country
Local media companies EGEDA, Mediaset España, A3 Media, and Movistar Plus accused Telegram of distributing pirated content. The messenger did not provide information at the court's request, so it will be blocked for the duration of the additional investigation.

A podcast here with two episodes on nato and European land wars that I think you'd like @notimagain @MissConductUS . This is the link to the second episode but if you scroll back you'll see the first too: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/social-science-of-war/id1659725018?i=1000604953638

BBC 2 tonight 9.30 ‘Ukraine : Enemy in the Woods’. “A revealing and moving portrait of lives compromised by war, filmed exclusively by Ukrainian soldiers with extraordinary access to a tightly controlled frontline.”

PMK

Watched this, it was absolutely heart breaking. These 'men' are little more than children 😭

Deeply affected by their experiences. The casualty rate was shocking, out of their company of 99 only 22 were not killed or injured.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Macron: IS group behind Moscow attack 'made several attempts' https://kyivindependent.com/macron-is-group-behind-moscow-attack-made-several-attempts-to-strike-france/ to strike France.
The Islamic State (IS) group, which claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall in a Moscow suburb last week, had recently made "several attempts" at attacks on French soil, French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 25.

Borrell confirms https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-eu-has-delivered-500-000-shells-to-ukraine/ EU delivery of 500,000 shells to Ukraine by end of March.
The EU has delivered 500,000 of the promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine and aims to deliver the total amount by the end of the year, the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said in his blog on March 25.

⚡️ Ukhydroenergo: 'Years' needed to restore Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant after Russian attack. https://kyivindependent.com/ukhydroenergo-years-needed-to-restore-dnipro-hydroelectric-power-plant/

⚡️ RFE/RL: Anti-Monopoly Committee's head investigated over suspected illicit enrichment. https://kyivindependent.com/anti-monopoly-committees-investigated-over-allegedly-illicit-enrichment/
The proceedings were reportedly launched on March 22 following a media investigation by Schemes, RFE/RL's investigative project, according to which Kyrylenko's family acquired real estate and cars worth over Hr 70 million ($1.8 million) between 2020 and 2023.

SBU head: Russia no longer using Crimean bridge for weapons supplies https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-head-russia-stops-weapons-supplies-via-crimean-bridge-after-repeated-strikes/ after repeated strikes.
Russia no longer uses the Crimean Bridge to supply weapons to the front after Ukrainian strikes damaged the crossing, Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said on air on March 25.

⚡️ Russian landing ship Konstantin Olshansky https://kyivindependent.com/russian-landing-ship-konstantin-olshansky-hit-with-neptune-missile-says-ukraine/ hit with Neptune missile, says Ukraine.
Ukraine has claimed yet another successful strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, announcing on March 26 that the landing ship Konstantin Olshansky had been hit by a Neptune missile.

⚡️ Reuters: Russia's Kuibyshev oil refinery stops one of primary units https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-9/ after drone attack. The news agency calculated that seven refineries have halted refining capacity of 4.6 million tons of oil, or some 7% of the total, due to drone attacks.

⚡️ Polish minister: Talks on licensing system for Ukrainian goods may finish this week. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-minister-talks-on-licensing-ukrainian-goods-may-conclude-this-week/
Talks on creating a licensing system for trading Ukrainian goods have progressed and may be completed already this week, Poland's Economic Development and Technology Minister Krzysztof Hetman said in a comment for Radio Lublin published on March 25.
The negotiations specifically concern cereals, rapeseed, corn, sugar, poultry, eggs, soft fruits, and apples.

Russian equipment losses in Ukraine surpass 15,000, says Oryx OSINT group. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-equipment-losses-in-ukraine-surpass-15-000-says-oryx-osint-group/
The number of vehicles, aircraft, naval vessels, and weapons systems lost by Russian forces since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has surpassed 15,000, the open-source investigative project Oryx announced on March 24.
The figure includes 2856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 aircraft, 20 naval ships, and one submarine.

⚡️Russian ambassador rejects https://kyivindependent.com/russian-ambassador-rejects-polands-summons-over-missile/ Poland's summons over missile in Polish airspace.

⚡️Iceland joins https://kyivindependent.com/iceland-backs-czech-plan-to-ammunition-for-ukraine-commits-two-million-euros/ Czech ammunition initiative, commits 2 million euros.

⚡️Russian attacks force Kharkiv to end city heating https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-ends-city-heating-season/ season early.
Kharkiv will switch off the city's central heating early to reduce the load on the power system, which has been severely damaged in recent Russian attacks, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov announced on March 25.

Kuleba confirms his first ever visit to India this week.https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-confirms-his-first-ever-visit-to-india-this-week/

⚡️Ruling party in Georgia proposes https://kyivindependent.com/ruling-party-in-georgia-proposes-anti-lgbt-law-mirrors-similar-legislation-passed-in-russia/ anti-LGBTQ+ law, mirroring similar legislation passed in Russia.

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Over 2,000 Russian missiles https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-over-2-000-russian-missiles-downed-over-ukraine-since-start-of-all-out-war/ downed over Ukraine since start of all-out war.

⚡️Putin recognizes https://kyivindependent.com/putin-recognizes-radical-islamists/ 'radical Islamists' carried out terrorist attack, claims Ukraine still involved.

Opinion: Why ISIS attacked Russia https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-why-isis-attacked-russia-and-why-russia-blames-ukraine/ and why Russia blames Ukraine
"Putin, an exemplary cynic, may well have allowed the attack on the Crocus City Hall venue to take place so that he could use it to push mass mobilization, strengthen domestic support for the war, and make opposition to his rule even more difficult," writes security studies professor Omar Ashour in his guest op-ed.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN

• MAR 26, 2024

■ Improved airstrike ratio, artillery one remains high
■ Increased casualties despite few engagements
■ More settlements under fire but below 7-day average
■ Equipment losses slightly below avg, APV losses above it

I thought it said a lot for their character too that the one young woman felt comfortable living and working with them. Can’t imagine the same would be true for a Russian unit….

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

EU intelligence cooperates with Russian special services after the terrorist attack in "Crocus City Hall", said the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell in an interview with CNN.
Borrell called the event tragic and emphasized that Ukraine was not connected with the terrorist attack.

State of the Dniprovska HPP dam now: https://t.me/United24media/20089

The Ministry of Defense has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding and cooperation between Denmark and Ukraine in defense procurement.

The head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Malyuk, foresees new special operations that will inflict even greater damage on Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as the country's political and military leadership, took part in an iftar on the occasion of the holy month of Ramadan for Muslims.

This is what de-energized Kharkiv looks like now. There are almost 200 thousand homes and businesses without electricity

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba gave an interview https://www.politico.eu/article/give-us-the-damn-patriots-ukraine-needs-air-defenses-now-minister-says/ to Politico
▪️He did not confirm media reports of US calls to stop striking oil refineries in Russia.
▪️Kuleba is concerned that the actions of the allies do not always match their rhetoric. The war is dragging on, and the allies are "returning to the usual way of doing politics." He thinks they want "Ukraine to fight with its hands tied behind its back."
▪️Weapons are delivered late or in insufficient quantities. Sometimes it is not given at all. For example, Ukraine receives "irritated comments" from Germany every time it asks about long-range Taurus missiles.
▪️Kuleba asks the West to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the Patriot air defense systems — they are the only ones that can effectively protect against Russia's continuous missile attacks. Now there are too few of them in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired a Neptune missile at the large landing ship Konstantin Olshansky
This was stated by the spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel.
According to the spokesman, information about the damage to the ship is currently being clarified.
Russians seized the Konstantin Olshansky during the occupation of Crimea. For 9 years, it was dismantled for spare parts, and a year ago the ship was decided to be restored.

Artist retrieves paintings from the rubble of the Kyiv Academy of Decorative Arts and Design, damaged by Russian missile strikes on March 25.

I've seen reports that NATO member states (particularly Poland and Romania) are considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray to close to their territory. This seems eminently sensible from my perspective, sends a pretty poor message if they/we allow Russia just to chuck missiles near to NATO territory with impunity (if they can push this red line then what else would they be willing to try).

Thanks! I've added it to my feed and will give it a listen. Ben Hodges is always excellent, so I'm sure he has some interesting things to say. Mark Hertling is another WP grad who frequently shows up on these podcasts. He's a former commander of US Army Europe and a tireless supporter of Ukraine. I had a chance to meet him last month and told him how much I appreciated his advocacy. He gets asked to comment on many news programs, as does Hodges: rock stars, both of them.

West Point has another podcast I already listen to that I can recommend.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/modern-war-institute/id1079958510

I understand the concerns but leaving aside diplomatic issues you've got to be really really * careful getting into the game of engaging supposedly hostile targets in another nation's airspace and you'd better be darned sure you've got your airspace coordination absolutely tied up.

I'm not saying it can't be done but you need lots of absolutely nailed down agreements about communications, airspace segregation and things like engagement and non-engagement zones that both nations will honour.

Be a bit of a sod for e.g. Poland to shoot down an Ukrainian fast mover over Ukraine territory that's in pursuit of a Russian drone or missile that the that Polish radars haven't spotted.....

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The March 22 Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall is a notable Russian intelligence and law enforcement failure, and explaining currently available open-source evidence does not require any wider and more complicated conspiracy theory either within or against the Russian state.
• Kremlin officials’ and Russian ultranationalists’ continued insistence on blaming Ukraine for an attack that IS-K very likely committed may come at the expense of Russian internal security and civilian lives.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev became the Leningrad Military District (LMD) Deputy Commander as the Russian military continues the formal disbandment of the Western Military District (WMD) and recreation of the LMD and Moscow Military District (MMD).
• Ukrainian officials stated that the Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on the night of March 23 targeted more Black Sea Fleet (BSF) ships and caused more damage than initially reported.
• The Kremlin continues to lean on long debunked narratives as part of its wider information operations aimed at discrediting and undermining Western support for Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka on March 25.

James Heappey has just resigned, wtf?

They're dropping like flies aren't they?

It’s no coincidence. These resignations are usually highly coordinated. Maybe Labour’s claims of a May election still being on the table aren’t as far off as they seemed.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-moscow-shooting-latest-ukraine-islamic-state-live-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=7441479#liveblog-body

Well Lukashenko’s comments aren’t very on message are they.

Are they coordinated to give advantage to the conservatives? Presumably so. how does it work?

The notion, floated in Russia, that if the Crocus City Hall murderers had managed to get to Ukraine they would have been greeted as heroes seems to me to be extremely insulting to Ukrainians. I doubt yeraverage constantly under fire Ukrainian would applaud the cold-blooded deliberate murder of civilians: they see too much of it at home all the time.

I doubt Ukraine would welcome terrorists of any ilk in their country.

It depends, coordinated for their own benefits generally. Sometimes that’ll be in line with party interests sometimes not.

• there seems to be a definite move away from Sunak and towards a new leader (Penny Mordaunt has been floated). It has a definite feel of rearranging the deckchairs.
• Heapney is leaving Govt and parliament so to be honest it’s likely to be more for his own interests and whatever he has lined up next (wonder if, given his comments recently, it’s defence related)

I think ministers have to leave it 6 months between a cabinet post and a new job (e.g. director). So if they get out now, they can start work after a September election and a relaxed summer off.

I think it’s 3 months but yes you’re absolutely right. Though they’ll all have something lined up already.