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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
Igotjelly · 23/03/2024 09:20

MagicFox · 23/03/2024 09:15

@peter__leonard

After about 12 hours, Russian security services finally have their narrative on Crocus City, and it is as inflammatory as could have been expected. Militants were purpotedly in contact with Ukraine and intended to take refuge there, they say

Is that what they’re saying? I had read that the suspects had been in contact with people in Ukraine (not with Ukraine as a state or administration) as a means of escape and were captured at the Russia/Ukraine border. Inflammatory yet and hints at links without saying explicitly that this was the work of the Kyiv administration.

Sorry I sound awfully pedantic but these small differences in language are important. It’s a genuine question, not saying I know better 😂

Usou · 23/03/2024 10:22

I am also hearing that the perpetrators were Tajik.

MagicFox · 23/03/2024 12:41

Summary of Putin's speech to nation just not by @faytuksnews

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
OP posts:
Igotjelly · 23/03/2024 12:46

Absolutely nothing of substance from Putin then.

blueshoes · 23/03/2024 13:38

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces conducted the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion during the night of March 21-22.
  • Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities may aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity, and Russian forces are likely trying to exploit Ukrainian air defense missile shortages in a renewed attempt to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid.
  • Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations through Spring 2024 while preparing for an expected offensive effort in Summer 2024, although Russian forces will likely struggle to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in multiple operational directions in Ukraine at the same time.
  • Russian forces likely seek to exploit current Ukrainian materiel shortages while preparing for efforts that will force Ukraine to expend a sizeable portion of the Western security assistance it may receive in the coming months.
  • The Ukrainian military command appears to be prioritizing rotations for frontline units but will have to address additional manpower challenges if Ukrainian forces are to seize the initiative even on a localized basis in 2024 as Ukrainian senior military officers say they hope to do.
  • Russian authorities reportedly intend to significantly expand crypto-mobilization efforts starting in Spring 2024 amid reports about significant decreases in the number of voluntary recruits.
  • Verstka reported that select Russian officials stated that the Russian military command hopes that increased force generation will allow Russian forces to conduct a future offensive operation to encircle Kharkiv City. Such an operation would pose significant challenges both to the Russian forces responsible for the effort and to the wider Russian campaign in Ukraine, however.
  • This Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a mass shooting and bombing at a concert venue in the suburbs of Moscow on the evening of March 22.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.
  • Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on March 22 that Ukrainian authorities helped return another nine Ukrainian children to Ukrainian-controlled territory from occupied Ukraine and Russia.
  • The Moscow military registration and enlistment office has reportedly begun to issue electronic summonses for the Spring 2024 Russian conscription cycle.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 23/03/2024 14:24

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Media: Czechia sends Ukraine its last Soviet Mi-24 helicopters. (https://kyivindependent.com/media-czechia-sent-ukraine/) Together with the latest donation, Prague had supplied Ukraine with eight Mi-24 helicopters in total.
⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs 92 of 151 Russian aerial targets (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-92-of-151-aerial-targets-overnight-on-march-22/) overnight on March 22 during a mass Russian attack, targeting the cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and elsewhere, primarily aiming at the energy infrastructure.

⚡️Update: 700,000 Kharkiv residents (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/) without power following Russian attack, 1 injured.

⚡️Update: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s damaged overhead line repaired (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/). The Ukrainian state-owned company previously said that the damaged line threatened to cause a blackout at the nuclear station.

⚡️ Ukrhydroenergo: One station of Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-hydroelectric-station-is-in-critical-state-as-it-was-hit-twice-during-russian-attack/) in critical state having been hit two times directly with missiles. Ukrhydroenergo's head said that the dam also suffered damage, but there was no danger of a breach.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Germany allocates $325 million to Czech-led initiative (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-germany-allocates-325-million-to-czech-led-initiative-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine to provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

⚡FT: US reportedly tells Ukraine to stop striking (https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-reportedly-tells-ukraine-to-stop-striking-russian-oil-refineries/) Russian oil refineries, cautioning that strikes against the facilities could raise global oil prices and increase the risk of further retaliation.

⚡️ Deputy PM says Russian oil refineries (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-says-russian-oil-refineries-are-legitimate-targets-after-alleged-us-alarm/) are 'legitimate targets' after alleged US warning from a military point of view.

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: First 10 Ukrainian pilots (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-first-ten-ukrainian-pilots-complete-royal-air-force-flight-training/) complete RAF flight training under the guidance of Royal Air Force (RAF) instructors. They will move to advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force before learning to fly F-16 fighter jets.

⚡EU moves toward plan (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-moves-toward-plan-to-use-profits-from-frozen-russian-assets-for-arms-for-ukraine/) to use profits from frozen Russian assets for arms for Ukraine, but there are still details to be worked out.

⚡Kremlin admits (https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-admits-russia-de-facto-at-war-calls-ukraine-occupying-force/) Russia 'de facto' at war, calls Ukraine 'occupying force.', in an unexpected admission by,Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on March 22. Peskov later clarified his words, saying that "de jure" it remained a "military operation," but "de facto" had become a war.

⚡️ Almost 1.5 million people suffer outages following Russia's 'largest attack (https://kyivindependent.com/over-1-million-without-power-after-russias-largest-attack-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure/)' on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

⚡️ Commander: Russia gathers 100,000-strong force (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-gathers-100-000-soldiers-unit-for-alleged-offensive-effort-in-summer-of-2024/), possibly for summer offensive, Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said on national television on March 22.

⚡️ White House condemns (https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-condemns-brutal-strikes-against-ukraine-calls-for-more-air-defense/) ‘brutal strikes’ against Ukraine, calls for more air defense. A series of attacks killed at least five people and left almost 1.5 million people without electricity.

⚡️ European Council sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-sanctions-33-people-over-slow-killing-of-alexei-navalny/) 33 people over ‘slow killing’ of Alexei Navalny.

⚡️ Military Intelligence: Anti-Kremlin militias' raid thwarts (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-anti-kremlin-militias-raid-thwarts-russias-plans-for-potential-new-attack/) Russia's plans for potential new attack. The recent incursion into Russia by Russian anti-Kremlin militias made Moscow "change plans" on a possible new attack in Ukraine's northern sector

⚡️ Kyiv Independent's new documentary debuts (https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-independents-new-documentary-debuts-on-youtube/) on YouTube. "Genocide is the crime of crimes. So, is Russia committing one in Ukraine?"

⚡️ Dutch PM: Ukraine to get large amount of shells (https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-pm-ukraine-to-get-a-large-amount-of-shells-in-the-near-future/) 'in the near future.'

⚡️ UK announces (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-announces-more-air-defense-systems-surveillance-drones-for-ukraine/) more air defense systems, surveillance drones for Ukraine, a further 60 million pounds ($75.5 million) in military aid for Ukraine that will provide new surveillance drones and air defense systems.

⚡️ Ukraine's military intelligence calls Moscow shooting (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-calls-moscow-shooting-deliberate-provocation-by-putins-special-services/) ‘deliberate provocation by Putin's special services.’

⚡️ Medvedev vows 'death for death' if Kyiv found responsible for Moscow shooting. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-calls-moscow-shooting-deliberate-provocation-by-putins-special-services/)

⚡️ White House: Currently no evidence (https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-currently-no-evidence-of-kyivs-involvement-in-moscow-shooting/) of Kyiv’s involvement in Moscow shooting, that has left at least 40 people dead and more than 100 injured.

⚡️ Islamic State claims (https://kyivindependent.com/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-for-moscow-terrorist-attack/) responsibility for Moscow terrorist attack.

⚡️Comments show Putin dismissed (https://kyivindependent.com/comments-show-putin-dismissed-western-warnings-of-moscow-attack-as-blackmail/) Western warnings of Moscow attack as 'blackmail.'

⚡️Russia claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-security-services-claim-they-detained-suspected-perpetrators-of-moscow-shooting/) it detained suspected perpetrators of Moscow shooting that killed over 100 people.

⚡️Putin seeking to blame (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-seeking-to-blame-ukraine-for-moscow-shooting-despite-isis-taking-responsibility/) Ukraine for Moscow shooting, despite ISIS taking responsibility. In his address, the Russian president did not mention the fact that the terrorist group Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the shooting, nor the warnings of Western countries about a possible terrorist attack in Moscow.

The Counteroffensive: Russia’s rising chemical weapons use in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/the-counteroffensive/). While Russia is not using nerve gas like it did in Syria, experts warn that the usage of chemicals as an

Ukraine war latest: Russia hits largest Hydroelectric Power Plant (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-hits-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-hydroelectric-power-plant-amid-massive-attack/), kills civilians during massive attack

The Kyiv Independent, [23/03/2024 02:06]
⚡️Fire breaks out (https://kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-russias-kuibyshev-oil-refinery/) at Russia's Kuibyshev oil refinery.

⚡️ISW: Russia hopes to collapse (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-hopes-to-collapse-ukraines-energy-grid-amid-air-defense-shortage/) Ukraine's energy grid amid air defense shortage. Russia's attacks against Ukraine overnight on March 21-22 represented "the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion," the ISW said. [This really worries me]

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 15 (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-2-injure-15-over-past-day/) over past day, including a police officer and a rescuer. [No doubt despicable double tap attacks]

⚡️Authorities: 3 injured (<a class="break-all" href="https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-3-injured-in-russian-attack-on-relief-center-in-kherson-oblast/kyivindependent.com/authorities-3-injured-in-russian-attack-on-relief-center-in-kherson-oblast/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-3-injured-in-russian-attack-on-relief-center-in-kherson-oblast/kyivindependent.com/authorities-3-injured-in-russian-attack-on-relief-center-in-kherson-oblast/) in Russian attack on relief center in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Military Intelligence says (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-says-incident-occurs-at-kuibyshev-oil-refinery/) 'incident' occurs at Russia's Kuibyshev oil refinery." We can only state that there was an incident there and that it is a facility used for military purposes," said Andriy Yusov, military intelligence spokesman.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Februaryfeels · 23/03/2024 14:33

Igotjelly · 23/03/2024 12:46

Absolutely nothing of substance from Putin then.

What a surprise

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 23/03/2024 16:58

"Peskov characterize[d] Ukraine as an "occupying force.""

So if Russia sent troops into, say, Reading, and they raped and pillaged and murdered their way round the place, the British Army would be an occupying force if they tried to evict those Russian troops. Ri-i-i-i-i-i-ight....

notimagain · 23/03/2024 17:27

“⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: First 10 Ukrainian pilots (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-first-ten-ukrainian-pilots-complete-royal-air-force-flight-training/) complete RAF flight training under the guidance of Royal Air Force (RAF) instructors. They will move to advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force before learning to fly F-16 fighter jets.”

Because timescales are a concern it’s maybe worth pointing out that the above group will be the first ab-initio pilots to have gone through basic training with the RAF with a view to ending up on the F-16 eventually.

The first group of Ukrainian pilots to actually get their hands on the F-16 in the near future (hopefully) will be pilots who already have fighter experience.

UK Defense Ministry: First 10 Ukrainian pilots complete RAF flight training

According to the U.K. Defense Ministry's report, the cohort completed basic training and will move to advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force before learning to fly F-16 fighter jets.

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-first-ten-ukrainian-pilots-complete-royal-air-force-flight-training/

blueshoes · 23/03/2024 18:45

The first group of Ukrainian pilots to actually get their hands on the F-16 in the near future (hopefully) will be pilots who already have fighter experience.

@notimagain thanks for the reminder of the time commitment needed to train an F-16 pilot. Ukraine is getting their ducks in a row 🦆🦆🦆

blueshoes · 24/03/2024 12:09

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian authorities claimed to have arrested the four attackers and seven others involved in the March 22 “Crocus City Hall” concert venue attack, which Russian authorities reported killed at least 133 civilians.
  • ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack.
  • The Kremlin nevertheless and without evidence quickly attempted to tie Ukrainian actors to the Crocus City Hall attack but has yet to formally accuse Ukraine of involvement in the attack.
  • Russian ultranationalists responded to the attack by reiterating typically xenophobic calls for anti-migrant policies, reflecting the growing tension in Russian society over the mistreatment of migrants and the impacts migrant disenfranchisement could have on expanding a viable recruitment base in Russia for Salafi-Jihadi groups.
  • Russian sources accused Ukrainian actors of reportedly conducting a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Samara Oblast on the night of March 22 to 23.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 that will release individuals from criminal liability if they are called up for mobilization or sign military service contracts.
  • Russia is reportedly delaying the delivery of two S-400 air defense systems to India, likely due to limitations in Russia’s production of S-400 systems, an increased need for air defense systems to protect cities and strategic enterprises in Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes, and a reported souring of Russian relations with India.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 that will release individuals from criminal liability if they are called up for mobilization or sign military service contracts.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 24/03/2024 12:32

Kyiv Independent Telegram highlights

⚡️Zelensky on Moscow shooting: Putin's attempts to link it to Ukraine 'absolutely predictable.' (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-on-moscow-shooting-putin-always-seeks-to-blame-others/).

"(Vladimir) Putin and his thugs are just trying to blame somebody else... It has happened before. There have been blown-up houses, shootings, explosions, and they always blame others," Zelensky said in his address.

"They sent hundreds of thousands of terrorists here, on Ukrainian soil, they are fighting against us and don't care what happens in their country."

⚡️ Islamic State releases photo of alleged perpetrators (https://kyivindependent.com/islamic-state-releases-photo-of-alleged-perpetrators-of-moscow-shooting/) of Moscow shooting.

⚡️Military intelligence: Partisans attack (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-partisans-attack-russian-soldiers-equipment-in-occupied-melitopol/) Russian soldiers, equipment in occupied Melitopol.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia might lose at least 10% (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-attacks-on-oil-refineries-might-disrupt-at-least-10-of-russias-refinery-capacity/) of its refinery capacity after drone attacks. In the past weeks, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of drone strikes aimed at damaging Russia's oil industry.

Evidence shows recent presidential elections most rigged in Russia’s modern history (https://kyivindependent.com/despite-no-opposition-and-predetermined-result-russias-presidential-election-was-heavily-rigged/) due to voting fraud, intimidation, the forced voting of state sector employees, massive state propaganda, and the exclusion of stronger competitors from the presidential race.

⚡️ Minister: If Russia seeks to destroy Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Dam, attacks will continue. (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-if-russia-seeks-to-destroy-zaporizhzhias-dam-attacks-will-continue/) "It is necessary to understand whether it was a deliberate strike against the dam or whether it simply... (aimed at) the hydroelectric station," Energy Minister Halushchenko said. "If it was a deliberate attack targeting the dam itself, these attacks will repeat." [It would be horrendous if another dam was destroyed by Russia like Nova Kakhova]

⚡️ Ministry: Situation at Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Dam under control. (https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-situation-at-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-dam-under-control-do-danger-of-breach/) The State Environmental Inspectorate estimated the cost of damages to water resources at Hr 159,305 ($4,100). Damages caused by soil and air pollution are still being calculated.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Russian oil trade feels pressure of Western sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russian-oil-trade/) in India as Indian refineries no longer accept tankers of Moscow's state-owned Sovcomflot shipping company

⚡️ Russia claims attack on Sevastopol (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-attack-on-occupied-crimea-explosions-reported-in-sevastopol/) in occupied Crimea.

⚡️ US Congress approves $228 million (https://kyivindependent.com/us-congress-approves-228-million-in-military-aid-for-baltic-countries/) in military aid for Baltic countries.

⚡️ Biden signs $1.2 trillion US spending bill, urges action on Ukraine aid. (https://kyivindependent.com/biden-signs-1-2-trillion-us-spending-bill-urges-action-on-ukraine-aid/)

⚡️Deputy Minister: Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid have led to $11.5 billion in losses (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-minister-russian-attacks-on-ukrainian-energy-grids-have-led-to-11-5-billion-in-losses/). 

⚡️Russia launches major attack across Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-major-attack-across-ukraine-targeting-critical-infrastructure/) targeting critical infrastructure. Russian forces fired 29 cruise missiles and 28 Shahed drones in a large-scale attack targeting eight regions in the west, center, north, and south of Ukraine, the Air Force said.

⚡️Naftogaz: Energy facilities (https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-energy-facilities-in-western-ukraine-suffer-damage-during-russias-major-overnight-attack/) in western Ukraine suffer damage during Russia's overnight attack.

⚡️Ukrhydroenergo: Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant lost a third (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-hydroelectric-power-plant-lost-about-3rd-of-generation-capacity/)of generation capacity after Russian strike.

⚡️Poland says a missile targeting Western Ukraine briefly entered its airspace for 39 seconds at 4:23 am (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-major-attack-across-ukraine-targeting-critical-infrastructure/) during Russia's overnight attack.

⚡️Poland scrambles (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-scrambles-fighter-jets-amid-drone-missile-attacks-on-ukraine/) fighter jets amid drone, missile attacks on Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine confirms striking 2 large Russian landing ships , "Yamal" and "Azov," (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-confirms-striking-2-large-russian-landing-ships-and-military-targets-in-occupied-crimea/) in occupied Crimea in the late hours of March 23.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Igotjelly · 24/03/2024 15:43

Mark Galeotti great as ever on the concert attacks. Some Key takeaways:

  • almost certainly not an inside job (lots of reasons why not)
  • largely a sign of utter incompetence that an attack like this could even happen
  • Those saying Russia is a police state so how could it happen fail to recognise the difference between tracking and arresting peaceful protesters and monitoring an active terrorist cell.
  • the narrative about Ukrainian involvement is lazy but serves Putin’s purpose
  • the mobilisation would happen anyway, this attack has nothing to do with it.
WinterMorn · 24/03/2024 21:22

The Daily Mail has published some horrific pictures of the torture of the terror suspects. I am not going to share them here but they are truly awful and by the sounds of it, have been released for public consumption in Russia.

L1ttledrummergirl · 24/03/2024 22:20

I'd have more sympathy for Russia if they weren't bringing death and destruction to various parts of the world through the use of mercenaries and their invasion of Ukraine.

You reap what you sow. They can fuck off with their faux woe is me attitude.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 24/03/2024 22:27

Torturing people because they are suspected of a crime.

Truly the Russians can be некультурный.

Igotjelly · 24/03/2024 22:40

L1ttledrummergirl · 24/03/2024 22:20

I'd have more sympathy for Russia if they weren't bringing death and destruction to various parts of the world through the use of mercenaries and their invasion of Ukraine.

You reap what you sow. They can fuck off with their faux woe is me attitude.

In terms of Putin’s regime I concur however there were children and innocent people at that venue. I like to think one of the things that separates me from Putin’s goons is my ability to both despise the Russian machine and feel sympathy with innocent victims of a terror attack.

Februaryfeels · 25/03/2024 01:50

L1ttledrummergirl · 24/03/2024 22:20

I'd have more sympathy for Russia if they weren't bringing death and destruction to various parts of the world through the use of mercenaries and their invasion of Ukraine.

You reap what you sow. They can fuck off with their faux woe is me attitude.

I get that.

I've tried to not comment as I'm clearly lacking in some sort of humanity.

The thousands of Ukrainians still suffering. And now russians are victims.

I saw videos of the suspects. It's extremely hard to believe that they managed to attack and kill so many people. And the state sanctioned torture of suspects. Turns the stomach

Igotjelly · 25/03/2024 07:26

I see ISW have also said that they believe, based on the evidence that it was a genuine terror attack carried out by IS. They conclude that claims of a false flag attack are inconsistent with the evidence. Interesting points from their assessment:

  • "IS would not falsely claim responsibility for an attack by one Christina country on another (or by the Kremlin against its own people) because the implications of IS conducting an attack at the behest of a predominantly Christian country would damage their credentials within the Salafi-Jihadi community." - hence I guess all the jumping up and down declaring that "no really it was us" and releasing body cam footage etc.
  • "To falsely claim responsibility for such a high profile attack would risk undermining the vitally important IS propaganda which allows it to fundraise and disseminate guidance to lower level commanders and supporters"
  • The attack is highly consistent with the Bataclan attack.
  • The Amaq News Agency announcement is consistent in terms of style, branding and language as others have been with regards to other IS attacks.

I think more than anything this points to the absolute incompetence of the Putin regime and security apparatus. It's highly embarrassing for them.

MagicFox · 25/03/2024 08:11

IS have released video footage from one of the attackers bodycams to prove it was them. It was them! Agree with Jelly: what it shows is that Putin gives no shits about ordinary Russians - he ignored warnings from the US (even spun them for propaganda) and did nothing to increase security anywhere. Again, though, he will spin this for his own narrative and use it as an excuse to escalate against Ukraine

OP posts:
MagicFox · 25/03/2024 08:20

Meanwhile Admiral Aquinillo has stated to the press that we are in the most dangerous security situation in his 40 years of uniform, primarily because of the cooperation taking place between Russia, China and Iran as a means by which to spread thin and weaken the US and its allies. So at a time when the US and allies need to come together more than ever, we have somebody like Trump threatening to disband alliances, undermining them in every possible away and, who knows, even collaborating (certainly with Russia.) what a world

OP posts:
blueshoes · 25/03/2024 09:55

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces struck a Black Sea Fleet (BSF) communications center in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and reportedly struck an oil depot and at least partially damaged two BSF landing ships on the night of March 23.
  • Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 23 to 24, mainly targeting southern and western Ukraine.
  • Russian forces are reportedly approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast but are unlikely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming months.
  • The seizure of Chasiv Yar would offer Russian forces limited but not insignificant operational benefits if they could achieve it.
  • The Islamic State’s (IS) Amaq News Agency published footage on March 23 purportedly filmed from the perspective of the attackers involved in the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack.
  • Russian officials proposed more anti-migrant policies in response to the Crocus City Hall attack.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov expressed concerns about Russian ultranationalist reactions to the Crocus City Hall attack.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on March 24.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 establishing a legal basis for enrolling members of the All-Russian Cossack Society into the Russian military’s mobilization reserve, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization and military formalization efforts.

[UK Ministry of Defence Ukraine update not out yet]

DancesWithDucks · 25/03/2024 12:19

Thank you so much @blueshoes for the break! Much, much appreciated.

It looks utterly ridiculous when IS are screaming that it was their terrorist attack, while Russia is appropriating it to partially blame the country they are terrorizing. How frustrating for IS.

DancesWithDucks · 25/03/2024 12:37

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ISIS releases https://kyivindependent.com/isis-releases-bodycam-footage-of-moscow-shooting/ bodycam footage of Moscow terrorist attack.

⚡️Russia charges 4 people https://kyivindependent.com/russia-charges-4-people-over-moscow-terrorist-attack/ over Moscow terrorist attack.

⚡️Southern Command: Russia almost doubled https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-demand-explanations-from-russia-after-missile-aimed-at-ukraine-violated-polish-airspace/ FPV drone attacks.

⚡️Russian landing ship 'critically damaged' by https://kyivindependent.com/russian-landing-ship-critically-damaged-by-ukrainian-missile-strike-says-military-intelligence/ Ukrainian missile strike, says military intelligence.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia launched https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-launched-nearly-190-missiles-140-drones-at-ukraine-in-the-last-week/ nearly 190 missiles, 140 drones at Ukraine in last week.

Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, lost 50% of its generating capacity due to Russia's March 22 mass attack on the country's energy system, the CEO of one of its subsidiaries said on March 24.
Speaking on national television, Serhii Kovalenko of Yasno said it will take "months" for the network to recover, and the full extent of the damage and what will be required to fix it is still being assessed. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-dtek-loses-50-of-generating-capacity-recovery-will-take-months/

⚡️Border Guard: Polish farmers (https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-about-500-trucks-stuck-as-polish-farmers-completely-block-ukrainian-trucks-at-2-border-crossings/) completely block Ukrainian trucks at 2 border crossings.

⚡️Warsaw to ‘demand https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-demand-explanations-from-russia-after-missile-aimed-at-ukraine-violated-polish-airspace/ explanations’ from Moscow after Russian missile entered Polish airspace.
⚡️Polish Operational Command: Shooting down Russian missile over Poland posed risk to civilians https://kyivindependent.com/polish-operational-command-shooting-down-russian-missile-over-poland-posed-a-risk-to-civilians/

⚡️Senior US lawmaker anticipates Ukraine aid bill https://kyivindependent.com/senior-us-lawmaker-anticipates-ukraine-aid-bill-to-be-brought-to-the-floor-after-easter/ to be brought to the floor after Easter.

A number of energy facilities in western Ukraine had suffered damage during Russia's major overnight strike targeting critical infrastructure, state oil and gas monopoly's CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said on March 24. https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-about-500-trucks-stuck-as-polish-farmers-completely-block-ukrainian-trucks-at-2-border-crossings/

Russian missile and drone attacks have destroyed a thermal power plant and all the electrical substations in Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov told national television on March 24. He also said that electricity supply had been restored for approximately 40% of Kharkiv residents. https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-russian-attacks-destroy-thermal-power-plant-all-substations-in-kharkiv/

A transformer substation at the Novocherkassk State District Power Plant in Russia's Rostov Oblast caught fire overnight on March 25, claimed Vasily Golubev, the regional governor. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-fire-at-power-plant-in-rostov-oblast-took-disabled-2-units/

Three armed men on March 24 attempted to break into a police department in Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, the country's Interior Ministry reported. One of them threw a grenade, injuring the two other attackers. https://kyivindependent.com/armed-men-reportedly-try-to-break-into-police-department-in-armenias-capital/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN

  • MAR 25, 2024
■ Improved air strike ratio, less favorable artillery one ■ Fewer engagements, decreased casualties ■ Equipment losses slightly below average, naval losses not added ■ Oryx: 45 🇷🇺 18 🇺🇦 added to records; 30-day ratio of 2.5x
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 25/03/2024 14:27

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights for last 3 days

France has decided to raise the level of the terrorist threat in the country to the highest, — the Prime Minister of France on Twitter.

The International Monetary Fund has approved another tranche of approximately $880 million for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility program, — Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.

In Zaporizhzhia, the number of victims increased to 29 people, including two children. [as a result of Russian bombing]

⚡️The US State Department, after the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, again recommends that Americans leave Russia

"The Russian enemy persists in attempting to 'reclaim' Snake Island and continues to launch missile and bomb attacks on the island," remarked Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

The Novokuibyshev refinery suspended work after a drone attack on March 23, the AVT-4 production facility was damaged at the plant, — Russian Media

France and Germany gave the "green light" to the tank manufacturer KNDS to create a branch in Ukraine, — Reuters

Gorbachev clarifies historical records on NATO expansion. In a 2014 interview, the former Soviet President refuted claims of Western promises to halt the alliance's growth. https://t.me/United24media/20042

The presidents of Latvia and Estonia have urged other European countries to intensify preparations for a potential armed confrontation with Russia. They have proposed measures ranging from conscription and a special defense tax to a substantial increase in military spending.
The presidents of Latvia and Estonia have urged other European countries to intensify preparations for a potential armed confrontation with Russia. They have proposed measures ranging from conscription and a special defense tax to a substantial increase in military spending.
Latvia's President, Edgars Rinkēvičs, emphasized to the Financial Times the need for European nations to revert to "Cold War spending levels" and explore the reinstatement of mandatory military service to bolster defense personnel.
Rinkevics highlighted the necessity of serious discussions regarding conscription. While he acknowledged that military leaders typically prefer fully professional troops and that compulsory service might face public resistance, he stressed that European militaries encounter challenges in recruitment. Implementing conscription would facilitate the establishment of a more capable reserve force, thereby enhancing deterrence against Russia.

According to a poll conducted by Le Journal du dimanche, the majority of French citizens endorse the reinstatement of conscription.
Specifically, 65% of men and 63% of women express support for the reintroduction of compulsory military service.

Ukraine returns nine more children home, — Dmytro Lubinets.

Ukrainian 20-year-old judoka Yuliya Kurchenko clinched the Grand Slam gold in Tbilisi. This victory marks the first gold medal for the national team of Ukraine at the Grand Slam tournaments in 2024.

The first satellite images revealing the aftermath of missile strikes on Russian large amphibious ships in the bay of temporarily occupied Sevastopol have emerged, reported OSINT analyst Tyler Rogovey.
Two impacts are visible: one near the pier adjacent to one ship, and another near the dry dock adjacent to the other vessel. Currently, there is no discernible damage visible on the ships themselves.
One of the ships is being towed toward a dry dock, suggesting it likely sustained some damage. Additionally, a stain emanating from the ship indicates a potential leakage of fuel and lubricants.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
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