Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇭🇺🇷🇺 Hungary wants to openly cooperate with Russia in sectors that are not under sanctions.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó believes https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-uhorshchyna-rosia-siiarto/32871672.html that some countries are already doing so but in a covert manner. The diplomat noted that Russian gas supplies to Europe have increased.
▪️Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia remain the most dependent on Russian gas. Budapest is increasing this dependence. In 2022, the country signed a new contract for additional volumes of Russian gas.

Almost all of the cruise and ballistic missiles that Russia used to attack Kyiv in the morning were aimed at the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine facilities, intelligence sources told Suspilne. All air targets were shot down.

🤡Russian army officer who surrendered to Russian liberation forces in Belgorod says Ukraine had a goal to attack Russia, so the SMO began.

A missile attack on the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant resulted in a leak of oil products into the Dnipro River.

🇺🇸Dynamics of US military aid to Ukraine
The money previously committed for Ukraine ran out in November 2023, and the Republicans in Congress have been delaying another $61.4 billion aid package for four months.

Somewhat relevant - this week's Leading interview is with Albin Kurti the Prime Minister of Kosovo. He's so incredibly interesting and speaks very eloquently about what it was like to be a Serbian political prisoner and why he thinks there is hope for opposition in Russia even after the death of Navalny.

I'm feeling gloomy today about the war dragging on and it's impact on Ukrainian society. How long can Russia afford to fund this? What will to take to make them back off? More importantly, what eill it take for our politicians to wake up and back them properly (or in the UKs case, just fund our own forces).

It feels like we are all counting down to the autumn and elections on either side of the Atlantic.

I think we're definitely into that slow march towards elections where internal politics take up substantial amounts of political capacity.

I get the sense that Russia can continue as is pretty indefinitely, which is very gloomy indeed. They're getting around the sanctions just enough to keep going and having a militarised economy and society has given them a pretty decent bump. I suspect as things drag on their economy will eventually begin to suffer but I fear that would come too late for the Ukrainians.

Interesting reports of the Kremlin (granted through Peskov) using the word War to describe the situation in Ukraine for the first time. Terminology is important and I would imagine as ever the Kremlin are using their mouthpiece in Peskov to test the waters on this.

https://x.com/RFERL/status/1771113268842532935?s=20

Marjorie Taylor Greene files surprise motion to oust Speaker Johnson | CNN Politics

Hmm. Thoughts @MissConductUS ?

It's likely just a shot across the bow to pressure him regarding the spending bill. Filing the motion does nothing if it's not brought to the floor.

That’s helpful thanks. She’s an absolute creature!

This piece made me feel physically sick:

Trump’s Threat to Europe
His First Term Tested the Transatlantic Relationship—But His Second Would Break It
By Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage

archive.is/2024.03.22-084606/www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trumps-threat-europe

Something happening in Moscow. Just caught a bit on the news but need to go and check what.

There's been a terrorist attack in a concert hall

They’ve been warning of a potential terrorist attack for a while now haven’t they.

Bringing , as I can see this might be a long evening.

Oh, right. I wonder who died there who might otherwise have been expected to fall out of a window. We've been here before, I feel: the lives of Russians don't at all matter to the Russian leadership, as far as I have been able to see this century.

To be fair the US had intelligence about a potential terror attack a couple of weeks back so quite possible it’s genuine.

What sort of group did the US intelligence expect an attack from?

(I usually don't speculate too much in the early stages, while info's still emerging – but this is Russia. True info will never emerge. Whoever's done this.)

I can’t quite remember, though I see the White House have issued a statement along the lines of extending sympathies which to me alludes to it being a genuine terror attack.

I wouldn’t wish a terror attack on anyone to be honest, regardless of it being Russia I feel saddened by the thought of normal people going out for a good time (hard to come by in Russia these days) and being slain. I really hope it’s nothing to do with the Ukrainians (I suspect not) as I expect better of them.

C4 news running Moscow as a co-lead story along with PoW's sad news.

Here's a deeper dive from the WSJ about what's happening in the House if anyone is interested.

Mike Johnson Under New Pressure After House Passes $1.2 Trillion Bill - Spending package now moves to the Senate as GOP conservatives in the House denounce the legislation

I wouldn’t wish a terror attack on anyone to be honest

Yes, indeed.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-war-latest-putin-election-live-updates-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=7424924#liveblog-body

No indication of Ukrainian involvement, Russia has asked the US to share its intelligence. I’d be very surprised if high level diplomacy wasn’t taking place this evening.

I can’t believe Ukraine would do this. I just can’t. It’s totally different from everything so far.

I agree and it would be such a monumental own goal diplomatically if it were them. They could say goodbye to lots of foreign support I suspect.

Suggestions online that it's fsb and that Putin organised similar ahead of Chechnya . To support mobilisation. Other thought is islamist terrorists based on prior intel. We won't know for a while