Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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@AskNotForWhomTheBellCurves yep brilliant name and really really good post. Thank you! Glad you popped in.

@MagicFox Twitter in itself exacts a toll, doesnt it.

Useful, more calm, thread on those Shoigu numbers: x.com/massdara/status/1770870298449002525?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

I can actually imagine a situation where Russia and NATO countries DO engage in conventional warfare with some sort of ‘gentleman’s agreement’ (for want of a better term) forbidding the use of nukes. Even now, I believe that a NATO country could be attacked by Russia and there would still be a reluctance by some to either go in hardcore or get involved at all for fear of escalation. That same reluctance and showing of hand too early is a condition that Putin will bank on and be emboldened by. Running alongside this, the notion of conventional warfare allows Putin to almost romanticise the involvement of Russian troops in what he would sell as a ‘legitimate’ hard won victory that nuclear weapons don’t allow for.

But what would he get out of that vs focusing on Belarus/non-NATO and then turning to Asia for markets etc? Surely that's a more logical use of force if he wants to come out on top without risking war with a peer force

Logic seems to have abandoned ship a long time ago. If logic were the framework for all this, Putin would have ditched this whole horrendous venture at any one of several given points and spun what he had already ‘achieved’ as a victory. He is too entrenched now and has gone so deep he can’t lose face as it will be the end of him.

I’m not sure that’s true. Putin’s logic isn’t the same as ours, his reference points are different. He’s totally boxed himself into a corner and defeat by any measure in Ukraine would mean a risk to his rule at home. I don’t think there have been any points at which he could have declared a victory to be honest. As soon as they were pushed back from Kyiv he had already lost.

Oh I don’t know, I think he could have pulled back numerous times and packaged it as something positive. Not many people would have challenged that either.

Why would he? He's winning right now. He's rightly anticipated the weak spots and reluctance of the west. And as we said earlier, he acted rationally when he invaded.

I can’t imagine why he has done any of the awful,brutal things he has done to be honest, but thats the difficulty in trying to analyse this man’s motives and mindset through our very different lens.

From the FT this morning . Sharing link to full article here: on.ft.com/4a59dPn

The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.
“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.

The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

Well if the world as a whole either sanctions the Russian economy comprehensively, including it's oil industry, by diplomatic means or the those directly involved in the war have the right to go direct....

As far as Ukraine goes there's a war on, they are fighting for survival and things like refineries on opposition territory have always fair game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Tidal_Wave

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/us/politics/us-steps-up-its-attacks-on-isis-controlled-oil-fields-in-syria.html

hm, how much does Ukraine still rely on US aid? Because right now the US workign in Russia's favour with the ending of aid, and this ridiculous comment. I sincerely hope that it's not actually the end of aid, but it's certainly looking that way atm.

Perhaps I'm going too far with that. The US has done an enormous amount and without their aid Ukraine would be in a far far worse state.

I think the world as a whole, including the US, would like to see Ukraine "win" but I very much get the feeling that nobody wants the winning to have any impact at all on their economy and certainly not on energy prices, certainly not in an election year (both UK and US).

Maybe a couple of years back people were willing to take a hit to support the plucky Ukrainians but now for many people it's become just another far off war.....

Yeah. I'm losing perspective.

I agree. Isn't the idea that Russian oil is supposed to be staying in Russia so they can't put the profits into the war effort? If sanctions aren't working then direct action might.

As the West has supposedly stopped relying on it, what's the issue?

Well, there will be considerable follow on effects. India and China buy a lot of oil, so there will be effects on them. Here in the West there might be increased heating bills, petrol bills and general costs overall might increase.

Transporting the oil they do produce is becoming harder for Russia which again will mean raised prices.

Targeting POL (petroleum, oils, and lubricants) is standard doctrine in any armed conflict.

If I'm honest, I despair at how tepid and feckless the US political leadership has been in this conflict. From the drip, drip, drip of weapons to the excessive concern about the election impact of factors like the price of gasoline in the US, it's been absolutely shameless.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on verge of blackout.https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power station currently occupied by Russia, is in an “extremely dangerous” situation following a Russian mass missile attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 22, Energoatom announced. There is only one remaining connection to Ukraine's power grid at the moment.

⚡️Update: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s damaged overhead line repaired https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/ “within hours” by Ukrainian workers, Energoatom announced.

⚡️Update: 700,000 Kharkiv residents https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/ without power following Russian attack, 1 injured.

⚡️Russia hits Dnipro Dam amid mass missile https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/ attack.
The company reported fire at the station but said there is no threat of a breach, adding that the situation is under control.

⚡️ Ukrhydroenergo: One station of Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-hydroelectric-station-is-in-critical-state-as-it-was-hit-twice-during-russian-attack/ in critical state.

⚡️ DTEK: Russian attacks damage thermal power plants https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-russian-attack-damages-thermal-power-plants-temporarily-traps-miners/ , cause outages in mines.

kyivindependent.com/shoigu-russia-to-form-2-new-armies-by-the-end-of-2024/
The Russian Armed Forces will create two new combined arms armies, 14 divisions, and 16 brigades, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a meeting with other defense chiefs on March 20. [as discussed]

The Ukrainian forces managed to "stabilize the situation" in the country's east, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 21. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-ukraines-forces-stabilizes-situation-in-east/

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs 92 of 151 Russian aerial targets https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-92-of-151-aerial-targets-overnight-on-march-22/ overnight.

⚡️ Official: Russia fires at occupied Kherson Oblast infrastructure in 'provocation' act https://kyivindependent.com/kakhovka-suffers-power-outages-after-russian-attack-on-energy-infrastructure-in-kherson-oblast/ causes outages.
Russian troops struck energy infrastructure in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast as a "provocation," leaving residents of the Russian-held city of Kakhovka without gas, electricity, and water supply, said Yurii Sobolevskyi, the first deputy head of the Kherson Oblast Council, on March 21. [there are strong rumours Russia is attacking Russian Belgorod Oblast itself as well]

⚡️Governor: Lviv Oblast energy infrastructure https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine/ hit in Russian mass attack.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Germany allocates $325 million to Czech-led shell initiative https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-germany-allocates-325-million-to-czech-led-initiative-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine.

Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, visited Kyiv on March 21, the first time a NATO military delegation has visited Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-military-delegation-visits-kyiv-for-first-time-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion/

⚡️Austrian chancellor opposes https://kyivindependent.com/austrian-chancellor-opposes-profits-from-frozen-russian-assets-being-used-to-buy-weapons-for-ukraine/ profits from frozen Russian assets being used to buy weapons for Ukraine.

Anti-Kremlin militias hold press conference in Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militias-hold-press-conference-in-downtown-kyiv-say-incursions-into-russia-thwart-kremlins-ability-to-launch-new-attacks/ , say incursions into Russia thwart Kremlin's ability to launch new attacks

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia's railway to Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russias-railway-to-crimea-is-ukraines-significant-target/ is 'important target' for Ukraine.

⚡️Russian media: Krasnodar Krai to close https://kyivindependent.com/russian-region-to-close-prisons/ 2 prisons after inmates leave to fight in Ukraine.

⚡️ Estonian minister unveils $22 million defense package (https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-minister-unveils-22-million-package-for-ukraine-during-kyiv-visit/) during Kyiv visit. "The package includes recoilless anti-tank guns, explosives, various types of artillery ammunition, gas masks, sniper equipment, smaller caliber ammunition, and more," Pevkur said.

⚡️IMF approves $880 million https://kyivindependent.com/imf-approves-880-million-loan-payment-for-ukraine/ loan payment for Ukraine.

⚡️Russia continues to redeploy Black Sea Fleet https://kyivindependent.com/russia-continues-to-redeploy-black-sea-fleet/ from Crimea, Ukraine promises ‘new steps’ to target it.

⚡️ Media: Czechia sends Ukraine its last Soviet Mi-24 helicopters. https://kyivindependent.com/media-czechia-sent-ukraine/

Russia’s war effort may not be as formidable as it looks. Current manufacturing rate and troop quality are about as high as they’re ever going to get, analysts believe. A review of economic and social data also shows that serious vulnerabilities plague Russia’s personnel and materiel pipelines. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-formidable-war-effort-has-shaky-foundations/

⚡️ Ukrhydroenergo's losses due to Russian attacks amount to over $3 billion. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-russian-attacks-result-in-more-than-3-3-billion-in-damages-to-ukraine/ According to Ukrhydroenergo, Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam has caused over 2.5 billion euros ($2.7 billion) in damages. Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrhydroenergo's stations cost around 500 million euros ($545.5 million).

Polish protesters have completely lifted their blockade at the Medyka-Shehyni crossing at the Polish-Ukrainian border, Ukraine's Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told Hromadske on March 21. kyivindependent.com/border-guard-polish-protesters-unblock-medyka-shehyni-border-crossing/

⚡️Zelensky: Russian missiles used in recent attack on Kyiv have estimated 1,500 foreign-made parts. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russian-missiles-used-for-new-on-kyiv-had-at-least-1-500-foreign-made-parts/

'Lives are falling apart:' Kyiv residents shook by another mass missile attack https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-residents-shook-mass-missile-attack/

⚡️Media: Russian Navy accidentally hits fishing boat, https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-navy-accidentally-hits-fishing-boat-authorities-try-to-cover-it-up/ authorities try to cover it up.

A Russian fishing trawler was hit by a missile during Russia’s Baltic Fleet military exercises, killing three and injuring four others, a relative of one of the dead men claimed to the Russian TV Rain on March 21.

⚡️ Klitschko: Ex-Kyiv Metro head resigns from Kyiv City Council https://kyivindependent.com/ex-kyiv-metro-head-resigns-from-kyiv-mayors-faction-in-city-council/ following media investigation.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 22, 2024
■ Air & artillery strike ratios improve (artillery one still very high though)
■ Fewer settlements under artillery fire
■ Combat engagements above average, casualties slightly below
■ Landbased equipment losses well above average & >30 missiles intercepted

Dnipro Dam. Civilians were in the vehicle during the attack, the official said, without specifying the number of casualties.

Two points:

How about telling Russia not to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure in the first place.

If US sanctions truly worked, Russia will not be selling hydrocarbons on the international market anyway so prices WILL rise. Maybe I am but a simple fool.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations this year.
• Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist.
• Russian forces conducted a larger series of missile strikes targeting Kyiv City on the night of March 20 to 21.
• NATO Military Committee Chairperson Admiral Rob Bauer stated that neither Ukraine nor NATO prompted Russia to invade Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces’ adaptations and innovations have in part changed modern warfare.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on March 21 that Vice Admiral Konstantin Kabantsov became acting Commander of the Russian Northern Fleet.
• Bloomberg reported on March 20 that an unspecified source close to the Kremlin stated that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian incursions into Belgorod Oblast are forcing the Russian military to divert forces from the frontline to Belgorod Oblast, although ISW has not observed such claims.
• US sanctions continue to influence the financial sector in post-Soviet countries, as two banks in Kazakhstan recently banned the use of Russia’s “Mir” national payment system to prevent secondary sanctions.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 21.
• Russian officials continue to highlight the work of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) in supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

@blueshoes ... could you possibly take over the Kyiv Independent roundup this weekend maybe? It's getting to me a bit and a couple of days' break would be much appreciated, if you have the time. No worries if not!

@DancesWithDucks absolutely, no problems for this weekend. Leave it with me. Have PM-ed you some other dates I can do as well to give you more of a break.

Sorry folks, I am not a patch (feather?) on Ducks' insightful analysis but will keep things ticking over. Things are bleak and I do appreciate and reading the optimistic posts. I have to sit back and absorb the enormity of the situation sometimes and words fail me. However, I do not lose hope that things will come together eventually. We must stay the course.

We have not been visited by trolls (dammit this is going to lure them out of the woodwork) but if anyone has a spare bob and would like to donate to a local Ukraine fundraising effort, do PM me and I can provide the details.

Thank you so much! Ill do the other two channels and then take a break for a couple days, come back Monday.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🪖 Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Pavlyuk said that Russia is creating a new grouping of troops with more than 100 thousand soldiers, and it is possible that in the summer the enemy will try to launch an offensive in one of the directions

Russians targeted the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine during morning attack, — sources of "Obozrevatel" in intelligence.

The Baltic States, Poland and the Czech Republic called on the European Commission to ban grain imports from Russia. .... .... In 2023, the EU imported 1.53 million tons of Russian grain worth €437.5 million," said Lithuanian Agriculture Minister Kęstutis Navickas.
The ministers emphasize that Russia is using profits from grain exports to the EU to finance its war with Ukraine.

The United States has proposed issuing bonds worth $50 billion, funded by frozen Russian assets, in collaboration with the G7. This plan involves pooling $280 billion of assets from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation under the management of a specially created project company. Profits generated from these assets will serve as collateral for the "freedom bonds," according to Bloomberg, citing its own sources.

🇦🇺Australia has joined the Drone Coalition for Ukraine and will provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with UAVs.

The Estonian military aid package includes:
▫️recoilless anti-tank guns;
▫️ explosives;
▫️ different types of artillery ammunition;
▫️ gas masks;
▫️ sniper equipment.

In 2024, the Netherlands will allocate an additional €2 billion for military support to Ukraine, announced Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
"This is not our final contribution. We are also actively working to ensure that 24 Dutch F-16 aircraft are in the sky over Ukraine as soon as possible," he added.

Profits from frozen Russian assets should be used to purchase weapons for Ukraine, — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Putin wants to open a new front in Europe to destabilize the West and weaken support for Ukraine, — Wall Street Journal.
Such an opinion was shared by experts Ivana Stradner and Mark Montgomery from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"As Russian troops suffer losses in Ukraine, Moscow has much to gain by stirring up problems in other parts of the continent," the Wall Street Journal article says.
Analysts believe that a new military conflict in Europe will give the Kremlin "an opportunity to gain local influence through arms trade and mediation, divert attention from Ukraine, and give Russia leverage over Western leaders."
The most suitable option for Moscow at the moment is the Balkan countries, where tensions have remained high since the Yugoslav wars (1991-2001).

Democrats in both houses of the US Congress are open to the idea of providing aid to Ukraine on a credit basis, as reported by The Hill.

ROZETKA (Ukrainian “Amazon”) warehouse was damaged by the night shelling attack on Kyiv.
The co-founder of the marketplace, Vladyslav Chechotkin has stated that besides the warehouse, cargo trucks and goods were also affected, so he apologizes to the customers.
During the attack, there were 99 people on shift in the warehouse, but they went down to the bomb shelter in time.