Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Telegraph reporting 1 killed, 23 wounded, and 33 missing.

I wonder where they got that from, since the Russian Spokesman was so clear with the one and two figures.

I reckon that if the two was wrong, the one probably was as well....

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russia's likely capture of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast represents a limited Russian tactical gain and does not portend any operationally significant advance unless Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement, which they show no signs of having done.
• Localized Russian offensive operations are still placing pressure on Ukrainian forces in many places along the front in eastern Ukraine, however, and can result in gradual tactical Russian advances.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful missile strike that destroyed a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel and potentially damaged port infrastructure in occupied Feodosia, Crimea on December 26.
• Russian forces struck a train station in Kherson City where civilians were waiting for evacuation on December 26.
• Russian forces have reportedly decreased the tempo of their operations on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, likely in connection with decreasing Russian aviation activity after Ukrainian forces recently shot down several Russian aircraft. [good]
• The Ukrainian government continues efforts to systematize and increase the sustainability of Ukrainian mobilization over the long term.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a gracious Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, while contrasting his apparent attention to the Russian irregular forces’ with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) incompetence.
• Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member states met during a series of meetings in St. Petersburg on December 25 and 26.
• Russian actors seized on ongoing protests in Serbia against Serbian President Alexander Vucic to blame Western actors for causing instability in Serbia, which Russia perceives as a long-term European ally.
• A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Finland is becoming a “second Ukraine,” creating rhetorical parallels between Russian narratives about Ukraine and Finland, further suggesting that Russia maintains future ideological and territorial objectives that far exceed the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Robotyne as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a series of laws on December 25 to help further bolster Russia’s force generation capacity.
• The Kremlin further formalized avenues to coerce residents of occupied Ukraine to receive Russian passports using maternity capital payments.

UK Ministry of Defence Ukraine Intelligence update is still elusive.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️The Crimean Bridge was shut down by Russian proxy authorities in occupied Crimea. No reason has been given for the closure.

⚡️Lukashenko claims transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus completed months ago (https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-says-transfer-of-russian-nuclear-weapons-to-belarus-completed/).

⚡️UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps: Destruction of Russian ship proves (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-and-russia-not-in-a-stalemate-says-uk-defense-minister/) there's no stalemate in war. “They haven't noticed that over the past 4 months 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed.”

⚡️Media: Russian fighters (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-fighters-using-hunting-scopes-from-western-companies/) use Western-made rifle scopes in Ukraine. Russian arms companies are purchasing the sights from Western companies including U.S.-based Leupold, U.S.-Japanese firm Nightforce, U.S.-Chinese company Holosun, and Austria's Swarovski Optik, according to the investigation.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi denies (https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-government-did-not-submit-request-for-mobilization-of-500-000-people/) requesting mobilization of 500,000 conscripts.

Ukraine’s effort to isolate Russia’s economy (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-effort-to-isolate-russias-economy-through-international-sponsors-of-war-list/) through ‘International Sponsors of War’ list. Beloved sweet treats like Snickers, Oreo, and Haagen-Dazs, produced by companies such as Unilever, Nestlé, and Mondelez, are labeled "international sponsors of war" by Ukraine due to their operations in Russia. While not directly supporting the war, Ukraine argues that their tax contributions may indirectly finance the conflict. Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention uses a "soft sanctions" approach, publicly listing these companies, prompting some to leave Russia and others to promise to sever ties.

The strategy is lauded by some, but critics call for a more centralized policy to effectively isolate Russia's economy.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi says Ukrainian troops remain (https://kyivindependent.com/maryinka-destroyed-but-ukrainian-troops-remain-in-the-north-of-the-city-says-zaluzhnyi/) in north of Marinka. Following Russia's claim to have captured the town on Dec. 25, Zaluzhnyi said that Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat to Marinka’s outskirts and in some places set up positions outside the city.

⚡️Russian attack (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-attacked-kherson-railway-station-evacuation-train-victim-number-unknown-yet/) on Kherson railway station kills 1, injures 4.

⚡️Minister: France delivers (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-france-delivers-second-ship-to-help-grain-export/) second ship to help Ukraine with grain export.

💼Talking business in Ukraine: CEO of Ukraine's largest grocery chain (https://kyivindependent.com/talking-business-in-ukraine-ceo-of-ukraines-largest-grocery-chain-on-navigating-war-plans-for-future/) on navigating war, plans for future. After being pruned by the Russian invasion, Ukraine's largest supermarket chain, ATB-Market, is fighting to grow back bigger and better. When Russia attacked, 31 ATB stores were destroyed and 79 more ended up in occupied territories. Even so, ATB has worked to provide Ukrainians with essential goods, while actively trying to develop.

⚡️Media: 2 Russian vessels left Feodosia (https://kyivindependent.com/media-2-russian-ships-left-feodosia-in-occupied-crimea-after-ukraines-strike/) in occupied Crimea after Ukraine's strike. It was impossible to identify the two vessels due to the distance and the smoke, but judging by their size, they resembled a warship and a military boat of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Surveillance mounts (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-surveillance-mounts-in-occupied-crimea-after-feodosia-strike/) in occupied Crimea after Feodosia strike. "The occupiers are looking for informants who they believe are watching the port, and are also trying to prevent information leaks about the extent of damage to the port infrastructure," the Center said.

⚡️Reuters: Payment problems delay (https://kyivindependent.com/payment-problems-delay-russian-oil-shipments-to-india/) Russian oil shipments to India,, forcing Indian Oil Corp (IOC) to purchase more oil from the Middle East. [heyho]

⚡️Military: 465 documented cases (https://kyivindependent.com/military-465-documented-cases-of-russia-using-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine-since-feb-24-2022/) of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022.

⚡️Military: Russia trying to bypass Avdiivka (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-trying-to-bypass-avdiivka-avoid-fighting-within-city/), avoid actually entering the city and engaging in the type of brutal street combat that was seen in the battle for Bakhmut.

⚡️Politico: Russia attempting to use Ukrainian POWs to foment unrest (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-russia-attempting-to-use-ukrainian-pows-to-foment-unrest-at-home/) at home. Families of POWs told Politico that after months of silence, they suddenly received calls from their family members in Russian custody, in which the POWs encouraged their families to protest against the government, claiming that "Kyiv does not want to take us back."

⚡️Governor: Russian shelling leaves 70% of Kherson without electricity (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-shelling-leaves-70-of-kherson-without-electricity/).

⚡️Ex-Supreme Court chief found guilty (https://kyivindependent.com/ex-supreme-court-chief-found-guilty-of-illegally-accepting-gifts-as-he-awaits-other-bribery-charges/)of illegally accepting gift as he awaits ruling on other bribery charge. He was renting an apartment in an elite neighborhood of Kyiv for Hr 1,000 ($26) a month, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) reported on Dec. 27.

⚡️Official: Russia's full-scale invasion has killed (https://kyivindependent.com/olympic-committee-head-more-than-400-ukrainian-athletes-killed-since-beginning-of-full-scale-invasion/) over 400 Ukrainian athletes and about 500 sports facilities have been damaged or destroyed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️Indian foreign minister: India's ties with Russia are 'very strong, very steady.' (https://kyivindependent.com/indian-foreign-minister-indias-ties-with-russia-are-very-strong-very-steady/)

⚡Poll: 58% of Ukrainians believe (https://kyivindependent.com/poll-58-of-win-in-short-term/) Ukraine will win war in short term. [More optimistic than expected]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/27/ukraine-russia-europe-support-kyiv

@notimagain thanks for sharing the Guardian article. So important not to give in to the mood of pessimism.

I also like this article from the FT about a month ago, along the same lines. The war can still be won by Ukraine.

https://www.ft.com/content/822e4e21-a631-496e-accd-1c9d6288573c

Ukraine’s long war — and how to win it
Every conflict has periods of defeatism but there are no signs of it in Kyiv, which just needs the west to keep the faith

"... Wars take time. So often in the post-cold war era the west has had to relearn this lesson.
..
But [Ukraine] also know all about long wars. Their war did not start on February 24 2022, as it did in the minds of so many outside Ukraine. It started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. So the idea that the dominance of Gaza on western TV has discombobulated Ukrainians misses the point. They seem genuinely perplexed when asked about this. In my scores of exchanges, from Kyiv to Kharkiv, the crisis in the Middle East did not feature once.

All that matters to Kyiv is their own war: how to furnish as many of their own needs as possible — drawing on their success in deploying the private sector in drone production — and also secure critical weaponry from allies. That means F-16s to counter Russia's air supremacy, more long-range missiles to push back its support units — so that if Ukrainians break through they can press ahead — and air defences.

They are also pinning their hopes on being able to use the billions of euros in interest on frozen Russian assets to fund reconstruction, which is vital to shore up morale and entice back some of the millions in exile. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal envisages a three-part mechanism: an international register of damages, an international compensation commission and then a fund into which all countries with frozen Russian assets can contribute. As for the west, it needs to think creatively about how to extend war insurance for the swaths of the country not under threat, a critical factor in encouraging companies to commit to rebuild.

Of course, the situation is nightmarish. Kyiv is under strain from within and without. While funding Ukraine is less contested in the EU — and in the UK — than in America, the politics around it in Brussels are becoming more complicated. EU ministers warn that a corruption scandal could dent popular support. Back home Zelenskyy’s boosterism is wearing thin with some on the ground.

In every fateful war, however, there have been moments of defeatism. For all the gloom, the geopolitical landscape may be shifting. The west did not argue its case well to the “global south” last year. But Beijing is signalling that fostering an axis of autocracies does not trump the need to keep its economy on track. India cites history rather than interests to defend a non-aligned stance.

Ukraine’s allies have been too slow to ramp up procurement. But it is not too late and is ultimately affordable. One of Zelenskyy’s ministers, the pony-tailed Oleksandr Kamyshin, who was plucked this year from running Ukraine’s super-efficient railways to overseeing logistics, likes to say that all that matters in leading is picking “iron people”.

Zelenskyy has appointed his. They just need our help and for us to keep the faith. I repeat, wars take time."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian drone footage published on December 27 showed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and retook positions that Ukrainian forces had captured during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, likely after Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter.
• The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6, 2023, reportedly postponed a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River that was likely intended to support Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi described continued Ukrainian battlefield challenges and requirements for future territorial advances during an interview with BBC published on December 27.
• Ukrainian officials highlighted the Ukrainian defense industrial base’s (DIB) increased production in 2023 and offered projections of Ukraine’s domestic drone production capabilities on December 27.
• Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on December 27.
• Satellite imagery from the successful December 26 Ukrainian strike on a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel in occupied Feodosia, Crimea indicates that the strike damaged the surrounding port infrastructure.
• Russia maintains its maximalist objectives in Ukraine and is uninterested in good faith negotiations despite reports that Western officials are becoming more amenable to eventual Ukrainian negotiations with Russia to end the war.
• The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) found that Russians are increasingly less trusting of Russian state TV and are turning to social media and the internet for news.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on December 27 in a likely effort to maintain Russia’s critical trade relationship with India.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Verbove as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
• A Russian insider source claimed that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has created his own private military company (PMC).
• The Ukrainian “Cyber Resistance” movement obtained information about a Russian deputy commander of the 171st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (51st Air Defense Division) committing sexual crimes against minors in occupied Ukraine.

UK MinDef Ukraine Intelligence update is back

Kyiv Independent Telegram highlights

⚡Zelensky: Ukraine triples (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-triples-weapons-production-in-2023/)weapons production in 2023.

⚡Defense Ministry approves (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-certifies-first-body-armour-vest-for-female-soldiers/) first body armor - bullet proof vests - for female soldiers.

From the heroic to the mundane: The Kyiv Independent spent a 12-hour shift with a Ukrainian mortar unit stationed in a village about 20 kilometers from the front line. This unit is part of Ukraine’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade, fighting on the southern flank of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, near the destroyed hamlet of Andriivka.
(https://kyivindependent.com/from-the-heroic-to-the-mundane-12-hours-of-positional-war-near-bakhmut/)

⚡Economy Minister warns (https://kyivindependent.com/economy-minister-warns-of-delays-to-salaries/) of delays to salaries, pensions if Western aid stops.

FM Kuleba: 'Europe doesn't know (https://kyivindependent.com/fm-kuleba-europe-doesnt-know-how-to-fight-wars/) how to fight wars'

Interview with Kuleba: "Europe doesn't know how to fight wars," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Kyiv Independent. "Unfortunately, our friends spent too much time deliberating on how and when to ramp up their production of weapons and ammunition." Discussion of Ukraine's acquisition of Western weapons, diplomatic challenges, European defense industry concerns, and ongoing aid obstacles. (https://kyivindependent.com/fm-kuleba-europe-doesnt-know-how-to-fight-wars/)

⚡️US announces (https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-250-million-in-aid-for-ukraine-exhausts-available-funding/) $250 million in military aid for Ukraine, exhausting last remaining funding. [help]

⚡️Ombudsman confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-confirms-russia-used-ukrainian-pows-as-human-shields/) Russia used Ukrainian POWs as human shields.

⚡️ISW: Drone footage shows execution (https://kyivindependent.com/drone-footage-shows-execution-of-ukraine-pows/) of Ukraine POWs.

Ukrainian drone footage revealed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War reported in their daily assessment on Dec. 27.

⚡️Prosecutors: Russia’s 76th Airborne Division likely linked to execution (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-russias-76th-airborne-division-likely-linked-to-execution-of-ukrainian-pows-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) of Ukrainian POWs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. “This division is already known for war crimes committed in Ukraine, particularly in Kyiv Oblast,”.

⚡️Russian landmines have killed (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-landmines-have-killed-277-ukrainians-including-14-children/) 277 Ukrainians, including 14 children.

⚡️German Green party leader says (https://kyivindependent.com/germanys-green-party-leader-says-europe-cant-compensate-for-potential-loss-of-us-aid-to-ukraine/) Europe can't compensate for potential loss of US aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Putin told China's Xi (https://kyivindependent.com/nikkei-asia-putin-told-chinas-xi-russia-will-fight-for-at-least-5-years-in-ukraine/) Russia will fight for 'at least 5 years' in Ukraine.

⚡️Military: Civilian vessel hits Russian mine (https://kyivindependent.com/military-civilian-vessel-hits-russian-mine-in-black-sea-2-sailors-injured/) in Black Sea, 2 sailors injured.

⚡️AP: Russian occupation authorities deliberately undercounted victims (https://kyivindependent.com/ap-russian-occupation-authorities-deliberately-undercounted-victims-of-kakhovka-dam-disaster/) of Kakhovka dam disaster.

While Russia has claimed that 59 people died in floods caused by the dam explosion in the territory it controls, the AP investigation discovered that in the Russian-occupied Oleshky alone, the number is at least in the hundreds.

Kyrgyzstan's trade is booming (https://kyivindependent.com/as-russia-masters-illegal-trade-schemes-kyrgyzstans-dealings-are-booming/) as Russia masters sanctions circumvention. Between March 2022 and October 2023, German exports of cars and parts to Kyrgyzstan had risen by 5,500 percent. Researchers have little doubt as to where these shipments are ending up. They see these figures not as a sign of Kyrgyzstan's blossoming economy but of Moscow's ability to circumvent and avoid international sanctions.

⚡️Ukraine currency drops (https://kyivindependent.com/hryvnia-drops-to-historic-low-against-the-dollar/) to historic low against the dollar.

⚡️Ukraine, France strengthen (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-france-strengthen-air-defense-cooperation/) air defense cooperation.

⚡️IMF rep on mobilization costs: 'We expect (https://kyivindependent.com/imf-rep-on-mobilization-costs-we-expect-ukraine-to-generate-domestic-revenues/) Ukraine to generate domestic revenues.' International donors are focused on supporting Ukraine's government and social programs, not the military.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The New York Times (NYT) published an oped by a member of its editorial board calling for Ukraine to engage in negotiations with and cede territory to Russia after reports emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin is using backchannels and intermediaries to signal his interest in a ceasefire. The oped largely ignores near-constant Kremlin public signaling of Russia’s continued maximalist goals in Ukraine. [F__k the NYT]
• Russia has officially deployed a battalion formed of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) to the frontline in Ukraine, further confirming a myriad of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs.
• Recent incidents of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs likely implicate elements of the now notorious 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division in the abuse of POWs.
• The Russian military command will reportedly disband the "Kaskad" operational combat tactical formation of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) by December 31, 2023, likely as part of Russia's ongoing force formalization campaign.
• Ukrainian military officials revealed that Russian forces launched about 7,400 missiles and 3,900 Shahed drone strikes against Ukraine since launching the full-scale invasion.
• Russian mines continue to threaten civilian vessels in the Black Sea but will likely not deter civilian vessel usage of the Black Sea Humanitarian Corridor.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a $250 million security assistance package for Ukraine on December 27.
• Imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin acknowledged the end of his presidential campaign after failing to register with the Russian Central Elections Committee (CEC) on December 27.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) rewarded prominent Russian milbloggers for their contribution to the "military-patriotic" and "military-political" sphere, mirroring previous Kremlin efforts to pander to and co-opt to the wider Russian milblogger community.
• Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance near Bakhmut, likely within the past week.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances northwest of Avdiivka, near Marinka, and south of Hulyaipole.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 28 that Russia has over 640,000 contract servicemen (kontrakniki), the first Russian announcement about the number of kontrakniki in the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical necessity, despite an apparently growing number of cases of highly infectious diseases being transmitted among Ukrainian children en route to Russia.

Thank you @blueshoes

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1740723932284502076 Not confirmed possible downing of a Russian TU- 22M3

The TU-2M3 looks like quite a big plane [my very unscientific observation]

No problems, Ducks. Happy to.

Yep, it's a strategic bomber (usually armed with long range stand off missiles) but has been used at times to deliver free fall bombs, certainly early in the war when the Russians had air superiority over parts of occupied Ukraine, so didn't have to worry about an air or even missile threat.

I know some are itching to see this (unconfirmed) loss being down to F-16s being delivered already but if one wasn't quite standing off far enough from, say, a Patriot battery the bomber crew might have got an unpleasant surprise...

We will have to wait and see.

@notimagain thanks for the explanation

@notimagain I have seen other comments that said it could be friendly fire and the distance is quite far for F-16s to reach

Ukaine's 2023 in photos:

https://kyivindependent.com/2023-ukraine-in-photos/

Haunting pictures

Putin showing he has no plans to end the invasion. Another pointless war based on a man's ego .

Kyiv Independent Telegram highlights

Massive missile and drone attack by Russia. Probably in retaliation for the 'damage' of the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in Feodosia in Crimea. Kyiv Independent is awash with news of casualties and strikes across Ukraine. Here are just some of them.

⚡️Russia fires (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-fires-barrage-at-multiple-cities-in-ukraine/) barrage at multiple cities in Ukraine.

⚡️Explosions reported in Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa oblasts (https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-heard-in-cities-across-ukraine-amid-wave-of-russian-strikes/) amid wave of Russian strikes, with at least 12 people killed, 76 injured .

⚡Russia targets (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-hits-maternity-hospital-in-dnipro/) maternity hospital, shopping center in Dnipro, kills 4.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia launched around 110 missiles against Ukraine on Dec. 29 and most of them had been shot down.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine shoots down (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-shot-down-114-of-158/) 114 out of 158 Russian missiles, drones.

⚡US ambassador Bridget Brink: Ukraine urgently needs (https://kyivindependent.com/us-ambassador-ukraine-needs-funding-now/) funding after massive Russian attack.

⚡️UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps announces (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-announces-new-air-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine-after-russias-mass-attack/)new air defense aid package for Ukraine after Russia’s mass air attack.

🔥Quantifying Russia's air attacks. Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war on Dec. 29, according to the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Local authorities have reported civilian casualties in Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Odesa after Russia unleashed a barrage of 158 attack drones and missiles overnight, targeting regions across Ukraine on Dec. 29. Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on air that an attack of this scale "has not been seen for a long time." 😔

⚡ UN Security Council to convene following Russia's mass attack (https://kyivindependent.com/un-security-council-convenes-following-russias-mass-attack-on-ukraine/) on Ukraine.

⚡️Western leaders condemn (https://kyivindependent.com/western-leaders-condemn-russias-mass-attack-on-ukraine-zelensky-urges-world-to-respond/) Russia's mass attack on Ukraine, Zelensky urges world to respond.

⚡️Polish military official: Russian missile likely entered Polish airspace (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-military-official-russian-missile-likely-entered-polish-airspace-during-mass-attack-on-ukraine/) during mass attack on Ukraine.

⚡️Polish Foreign Ministry summons (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-foreign-ministry-summons-russian-charge-daffaires-over-missile-incident/) Russian charge d'affaires over missile incident.

⚡️Polish army: Unidentified object enters Poland during Russian attack on Ukraine. Duda holds emergency (https://kyivindependent.com/duda-holds-emergency-meeting/) meeting after unidentified object enters Polish airspace.

⚡️Ukrainian hackers claim (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-hackers-intercept-email-saying-ukraines-strike-on-novocherkassk-ship-killed-74-russian-soldiers/) Ukrainian strike on Russian ship killed 74 soldiers.

Ukraine war latest: Russia's largest air attack on Ukraine kills 30 (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-unleashes-largest-attack-in-months-killing-30-and-injuring-over-160/), injures over 160

Horrific air attack last night, and some of the comments on Zalensky’s social
media accounts indicate that many Ukrainians have had enough. Please go on and show some support for him, I don’t know what more he could have done and seeing his own people (albeit with no doubt a number of bits) turn against him must be tough to endure, especially with the waning support of the US.

@dibly What would they have him (Zelenskyy) do? So frustrating. This in itself is another war, fought not on land but over social media.

Yesterday morning when I heard about the air strikes, I checked in with my friends in Kyiv. All alive. Some debris fell 500m from one friends’s block of flats, closest one so far. Friends are preparing for another “merry” New Year, similar to last year’s one.

A Russian missile has reportedly crossed at least 25 miles into Polish airspace.

It could be an errant missile, or it could be a deliberate test of Polish air defenses. I expect more information will be forthcoming.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67839340

I’m inclined to think fuck up.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion on the morning of December 29.
• The strike package that Russian forces launched on December 29 appears to be a culmination of several months of Russian experimentation with various drone and missile combinations and efforts to test Ukrainian air defenses.
• Russia will continue to conduct strikes against Ukraine at scale in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort against Russia.
• Current Russian missile and drone reserves and production rates likely do not allow Russian forces to conduct regular large-scale missile strikes, but likely do allow for more consistent drone strikes, which can explain the recent pattern of Russian strike packages.
• The Kremlin's efforts to sufficiently mobilize Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) in support of its wartime objectives, including large-scale strike series, may been more successful than Western officials previously assessed due in part to Russia’s ability to procure military equipment from its partners and the redistribution of Russia’s resources for military production purposes.
• Russian forces have likely routinely attempted to draw and fix limited Ukrainian air defense systems away from the front, and the Russian strikes on December 29 follow recent indications that Ukrainian air defenses may be presenting significant challenges to Russian aviation operations along the frontline.
• Western aid remains vital for Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes, and the end of such aid would likely set conditions for an expanded Russian air campaign In Ukraine.
• Western leaders largely viewed the massive Russian strike as evidence that Putin’s maximalist goals in Ukraine remain unchanged, in line with ISW’s long-standing assessment that Putin is not genuinely interested in a ceasefire or any sort of negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
• Russian forces made recent confirmed advances northeast of Bakhmut and south of Avdiivka as positional engagements continued across the entire line of contact.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 29 that it has completed Russia’s autumn 2023 conscription cycle, which began on October 1.
• Russia continues the forced integration of occupied areas of Ukraine into the Russian system using social services and infrastructure restoration projects.