Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Whizzing in with a tray of and for when we need this thread.

Thanks, MagicFox.

Happy Holidays from New York.

Here for as long as it takes 💙💛

Thank you as always for this thread.

Thank you @MagicFox 🇺🇦forever

Thanks to MagicFox, as ever.

How depressing that we’re on thread 46.

I was listening to Ukraine the Latest today and they were talking about a woman who is worried that her 1 year old grandson will have to fight in the war. They truly believe that this is now going to be an extremely long war.

Thank you @MagicFox again.

It's so so worrying isn't it @Igotjelly Ukraine is moving more towards self-reliance on shells, missiles and drone production but it just can't do it all.

The media is heavily emphasising every time a US person says something about the supplies lessening, or about European disunity. It doesn't help. These problems are there, but I wish the media would not tilt the public perceptions so.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: Russia sold $1 billion of Ukrainian grain on world markets https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-russia-sold-1-billion-of-ukrainian-grain-on-world-markets/

⚡️ Military: Decrease in Russian air strikes, https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-airstrikes-decrease-yet-infantry-remains-highly-active/ infantry remains highly active.

Some EU countries seek to weaken the bloc's plans aimed against Russia's ability to acquire restricted dual-use goods via third-party countries, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 25, citing undisclosed sources. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-some-eu-members-seek-to-weaken-russia-sanctions-enforcement-plan/
A "group of big member states" reportedly prefer a more limited scope of clauses and goods covered by this measure and voiced worries of competitive disadvantage for European companies, the sources told Bloomberg.

⚡️Tech giant Cisco built special device to help Kyiv ward off cyberattacks on power grid kyivindependent.com/tech-giant-cisco-built-special-device-to-help-kyiv-ward-off-cyberattacks-on-power-grid/ Cisco delivered to Kyiv in April 2023 a special prototype device that will help Ukraine's power grid defend against Russian attacks this winter, CNN reported.
The pizza box-sized prototypes were shipped using a US plane carrying humanitarian aid. They are designed to keep the grid running and ward off Russian cyberattacks.

⚡️ Two airports in Moscow have suspended operations after a major drone attack targeted the capital city.
Russian media claims 11 Ukrainian drones were shot down by air defense while one building in the city of Tula was hit. Injuries were reported by local Russian media.

⚡️Ambassador: Azerbaijan delivers https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-azerbaijan-delivers-demining-machine-to-ukraine/ demining machine to Ukraine.

⚡️Lithuania pledges https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-pledges-2-million-euros-for-humanitarian-grain-initiative/ 2 million euros for grain initiative

⚡️Zelensky meets https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-swiss-president-in-kyiv/ Swiss president in Kyiv.
Zelensky and his Swiss counterpart Alain Berset met in Kyiv on Nov. 25, discussing the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine and Switzerland's role in implementing Zelensky's peace formula, among other things.

⚡️ EU to provide $55 million to repair Ukraine's port infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-provide-55-million-to-repair-ukraines-port-infrastructure/

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely aiming to fix ‘logistical problems’ for winter maritime missile strikes https://kyivindependent.com/uk-russia-likely-aims-to-fix-logistical-problems-for-winter-maritime-missile-strikes-on-ukraine/ on Ukraine.

Ukraine sides with Israel. How will it affect Kyiv’s relations with Arab world, Global South? https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sides-with-israel-how-will-it-affect-kyivs-relations-with-arab-world-global-south/ [Damn shame Netenyahu's govt didn't do more to side with Ukraine. Sorry Naem, but it's true]

⚡️ Interior Ministry discloses archived files on Holodomor cannibalism cases. https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-publishes-documents-on-cannibalism-during-holodomor/
Ukraine's Interior Ministry published on Nov. 25 documentation on individual cannibalism cases investigated during the Holodomor in 1932-33, illustrating the suffering wrought by the man-made famine.
The ministry's archive contains files of 1,022 criminal cases opened by the Soviet police in connection to cannibalism during the time of Holodomor. [Grim. Happened in St Petersburg too during WW2]

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 AT ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 26
■ Strikes on both sides above 7-day average, most 🇷🇺 air strikes since Nov 2022 at least
■ Combat engagements & artillery attacks below average, 🇷🇺 troop & equipment losses above
■ Record number of drones intercepted

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️President Zelenskyy, speaking at the Grain from Ukraine conference, announced that Ukraine's partners have committed to providing ships to safeguard civilian vessels carrying grain in the Black Sea. Furthermore, additional air defense systems will be transferred by these partners to fortify the defense of Odesa.

Swiss President Alain Berset revealed during a press conference that Switzerland has pledged an aid package exceeding €100 million to Ukraine. The allocated funds will be disbursed over the course of the next several years to support these initiatives in Ukraine.

The Russian Federation has initiated the mass production of unmanned attack mini-helicopters known as "Termit."
Images and footage from the production plant showcase around a dozen helicopters at different stages of completion, with at least three nearing the final assembly phase.
The "Termit" helicopters, based on stated specifications, are capable of carrying 3 S-8L aviation-corrected missiles, each with an 80 mm caliber. These missiles have the capacity to eliminate both individual and grouped targets at a range extending up to 6 kilometers.

Russia modernizes Shahed drones with carbon to make them harder to detect
Russians cover drones with carbon or paint them black to make it harder for Ukrainian air defense to shoot them down.

⚡️A coalition of EU countries has reportedly opposed efforts to bolster measures against Russia's evasion of sanctions through intermediary nations, as reported by Bloomberg, citing inside sources.
The recent EU proposals to reinforce sanctions include:
▫️ Prohibiting importers from reselling crucial goods, notably semiconductors, to Russia or for use within its borders.
▫️ Imposing an obligation on exporters to report any violations of sanctions committed by third countries.
▫️ Requiring companies to allocate a portion of the contract amount to a dedicated account for aiding Ukraine, with a termination clause in case of restriction breaches.
However, diplomats from prominent EU member states have voiced concerns over the legal aspects of these proposals. They propose narrowing down the list of goods subjected to these sanctions and worry that the new contractual stipulations "might disadvantage European companies in terms of competitiveness."
Conversely, other EU member states, particularly the Baltic states, stand in support of these proposed sanctions.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Volodymyr Zelensky on the situation on the border with Poland:
"The situation that arose on the border of Poland and Ukraine happened 'because of some political steps of our neighbors. And the Poles should be given some time, everything will warm up."

🇨🇭Switzerland will .... also provide 10 ambulances and 6 fire trucks to replace the damaged ones.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-25-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces launched the largest drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion overnight on November 24 to 25 using a new modification of the Iranian Shahed 131/136 drones.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to grapple with the challenges electronic warfare (EW) systems pose on the front.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 25 that Ukraine’s Western partners agreed to transfer warships to Ukraine to protect Ukraine’s grain corridor in the Black Sea.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russia has not fulfilled arms export deals to Armenia and offered an alternative arrangement that would allow Russia to keep the weapons against the backdrop of recent deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• Infighting among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, likely exacerbated by ethnic tensions, has compelled a prominent milblogger to close his Telegram channel.
• Other milbloggers attributed increased infighting among ultranationalist voices about the war in Ukraine to Russian politics and the coming 2024 Russian presidential elections.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 25 and advanced in some areas.
• Russian military commanders are reportedly ignoring frontline units’ requests for drones.
• Ukraine’s Ministry of Reintegration reported on November 24 that over 13,500 Ukrainians returned to Ukraine from Russia via a humanitarian corridor in Sumy Oblast since its establishment in July 2023.

@DancesWithDucks [Damn shame Netenyahu's govt didn't do more to side with Ukraine. Sorry Naem, but it's true]

I totally agree. As I think I have made clear from the beginning, I am not and have never been a Netanyahu supporter - I think his government has been and continues to be a disaster from beginning to end - and just about all his areas of focus were wrong. But like most people, I am expecting his political end will be relatively soon. His poll support has plumetted, and everybody believes he would lose an election if it was held now. Just with a war to prosecute, there nobody is going to try and unseat him now, and an election is not due for two years, but as soon as there is no war, the knives are going to be out in Likud (that is also why I think, contrary to what most pundits are saying which is that this current pause will turn into a ceasefire, that it won't. If Hamas continues to produce hostages, then it might go on for a bit longer, but how much longer can they or will they really do that?)

But Hamas visiting Russia and Russia cosying up with Iran has, I think, put any argument for trying to be neutral out of any Israeli party's mind. I can't see anybody supporting it now. The argument to maintain a level of neutrality was precisely to prevent that kind of axis (I don't think anybody, from any Israeli party, even the ones I dislike, had any question about who one should support morally, it was all about pragmatics and realpolitic). Now I can't see that argument washing - the only real argument is that Israel can't afford to give military assistance to Ukraine because it needs every bit of what it has for itself - which I am afraid is even more valid than it was when I made that point earlier in the year. But (as I have always thought) anything they can spare they should, and certainly know how, it is increasingly clear it is part of the same global fight.

Thanks for the new thread, the sharing of knowledge and continuing updates from everyone. It’s so sad we’re still here 🇺🇦.

Thanks for the new thread

Checking in, thank you for the new thread and thank you for your tireless contributions 💙💛

Here for it again. Thank you to all that keep it going 🇬🇧❤️🇺🇦

Howdy!

There's been a big storm round the SE of Ukraine and Crimea and the whole region. Trent Telenko thinks there's a possibility that it may damage some of the booms that float on the water to protect the Crimean harbours and the Ukrainians might be able to capitalize on that.

If the helicopters weren't put under cover they might be damaged too.

It must have been miserable in the trenches.

From Tim White, a pylon in Ukraine. Ex-pylon.

That's some storm

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Snowstorm causes blackouts in 131 towns, villages https://kyivindependent.com/bad-weather-makes-blackouts-hit-131-populated-areas-in-odesa-oblast/ of Odesa Oblast.
Adverse weather in Odesa Oblast caused power loss in 131 towns and villages as of noon on Nov. 26, according to the regional branch of the private energy company DTEK.
Snowstorms also forced an emergency shutdown at one of Odesa's high-voltage substations, leaving 14,000 customers in the city's Kyiv District without electricity.

⚡️Commander: War can spread https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-commander-war-can-spread-to-more-of-the-country-if-russias-tech-grows/ to more of the country if Russia's tech grows. [ and see below about Turkiye and military tech imports]
If Russia keeps increasing weapons production and improving its technology with its allies' help, the war could expand beyond the east and south of the country, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, responsible for Ukraine's northern border defense, told ABC News.
"We are getting ready for that," he said. "We're building defenses, putting mines, and training our forces."

⚡️ FT: Turkish exports of military-use goods https://kyivindependent.com/ft-turkish-exports-of-military-use-goods-to-russia-soar-in-2023/ to Russia soar in 2023.
Turkish exports of goods to Russia that Moscow uses for military production have spiked in 2023, strengthening concerns about sanctions circumvention, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 27.
Turkey recorded $158 million in exports of 45 goods like microchips, marked by the U.S. as "high priority," to Russia and five "former Soviet countries" suspected of serving as intermediaries for Moscow over the first nine months of 2023, the outlet noted. [ fucking rotten corrupt pieces of shit]

⚡️US official says Ukraine aid bill unlikely to be passed https://kyivindependent.com/us-official-says-new-aid-for-ukraine-unlikely-to-be-passed-before-2024/ before 2024.
Mike Turner, chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, said on Nov. 26 that new aid for Ukraine and Israel "will be difficult to pass before the end of the year," Bloomberg reported. [ very bad news]

⚡️US Senate announces https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-announces-vote-on-ukraine-aid-request/ vote on Ukraine aid request.
The U.S. Senate will hold a vote on President Joe Biden's billion-dollar aid request for Ukraine and Israel as early as Dec. 4, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to senators Nov. 26

⚡️ Mike Pompeo, a former U.S. State Secretary in Donald Trump's administration, said US to back Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/pompeo-us-to-back-ukraine-no-matter-who-wins-presidential-election/ no matter who wins presidential election.

⚡️The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) had to rely on backup electricity after losing its connection to its main off-site power line, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in its Nov. 26 report.
IAEA monitors also reported hearing rocket fire close to the nuclear plant. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-shelling-and-power-loss-at-znpp-highlight-nuclear-risks/

⚡️Fire reported https://kyivindependent.com/fire-reported-at-russian-plant-manufacturing-engines-for-military-equipment/ at Russian plant manufacturing engines for military equipment
An explosion occurred on Nov. 26 at the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant in Russia, leading to a severe fire, the Moscow Times reported.
The plant provides engines for T-72 and T-90 tanks, Terminator armored fighting vehicles, and self-propelled artillery.

⚡️Latvia offers to help negotiate https://kyivindependent.com/latvian-foreign-minister-offers-to-help-negotiate-end-to-polish-hauliers-border-blockade/ end to Polish border blockade.

⚡️Polish truckers to start round-the-clock blockade https://kyivindependent.com/polish-truckers-to-start-round-the-clock-blockade-of-medyka-crossing-on-nov-27/ of border crossing on Nov. 27.
Polish haulers will begin the “round-the-clock blockade” of the fourth border crossing with Ukraine, Medyka, on Nov. 27, State Border Guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on national television on Nov. 26.

⚡️Ministry: 2,100 trucks stuck at Ukraine border (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-haulier-protests-block-2000-trucks-at-ukraine-border/) due to Polish blockade. Volunteers distributed 2,500 liters of water, 1,200 meals, and needed medicines at this crossing point, where more than 800 trucks are currently standing in line. [this is way out of hand]

⚡️Media: Ukraine retaliated https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainska-pravda-ukraine-retaliated-against-russia-with-35-drones/ against Russia's mass attack with 35-drone-strike.
Ukraine's drones were aimed at targets in Moscow and its region, as well as in Tula and Smolensk. Russia claimed that it had shot down 24 Ukrainian drones. [ what happened to the 11 that got through, if you trust the Ru figures?]

⚡️ Lithuania sees unprecedented activity level https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-sees-unprecedented-activity-by-belarus-kgb/ by Belarus' KGB.
The Lithuanian intelligence agency (VSD) recorded a "historic" activity level by Belarus' KGB secret police, the VSD's head said in a comment for LRT Radio on Nov. 26.

⚡️Russia puts https://kyivindependent.com/russia-puts-meta-spokesperson-on-wanted-list/ Meta spokesperson on wanted list.
Russia's Interior Ministry has placed Andy Stone, spokesperson for the tech giant Meta, on a federal wanted list, the Russian independent media outlet Mediazona reported on Nov. 26. [ I don't suppose he expected that when he accepted the job]

⚡️Partisans in Crimea report https://kyivindependent.com/partisans-in-crimea-report-regular-internet-outages/ regular internet outages. Russian proxy authorities in occupied Crimea have begun disconnecting the internet at regular intervals, members of the partisan organization Atesh reported on Nov. 26. Local sources also suggested that the internet blockages were intended to "prevent concerned citizens from correcting the strikes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces."

⚡️Czechia turns to export licenses as arms for Ukraine run low. https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-turns-to-export-licenses-as-arms-for-ukraine-run-low/
Czechia is running low on military equipment it can send to Ukraine from its own stockpiles, Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova said on local television, according to Czech outlet CTK.

⚡️VP Artem Sachuk of Ukrainian Chess Federation killed https://kyivindependent.com/vp-of-ukrainian-chess-federation-killed-in-action/ in action.

⚡️MP Mariana Bezuhla from Zelensky's party slams commander-in-chief, calls for his dismissal https://kyivindependent.com/mp-from-zelenskys-party-slams-commander-in-chief-calls-for-his-dismissal/

Not so high losses but still 750 dead.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
AT ragnarbjartur

WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 27
■ Strikes on both sides as well as engagements & attacked settlements below 7-day average
■ Relatively low troop & equipment losses reported
■ November however record month for troop losses & 3rd highest for equipment

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), has stated that Russia has activated a network of spies within Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is actively engaged in counteracting these activities.
He mentioned that the objective of these Russian agents is "to sow discord between the political and military leadership of Ukraine and to incite anti-government sentiments among the population."

In Crimea, the storm washed away the trenches dug by the Russian Armed Forces
According to Crimean sources, in Yevpatoria, water flooded the coastal line of defense, engineering facilities and firing positions.

Sweden will provide another 8.7 million euros for the implementation of the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative, — Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson.

Switzerland's embassy in Ukraine has announced an allocation of over €3 million for the Grain from Ukraine initiative.

The Russians exported at least $1 billion worth of grain from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine

Russia begins shipping grain to Africa to strengthen its influence on the continent, — Bloomberg

The "Scythian gold" has been transported to the territory of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. The truck carries 2,694 kg of cultural property, and customs officials will initiate the identification process.
The Ministry of Culture recently confirmed an agreement with the Amsterdam museum for the return of the "Scythian gold" to Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-26-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed drone strikes on Ukraine on the night of November 25-26.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly conducted a large-scale drone strike on Russian territory, and Russian occupation officials accused Ukrainian forces of launching a strike on occupied Donetsk Oblast that resulted in widespread power outages.
• Russian forces reportedly complained about the vulnerability of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued complaints about weak Russian capabilities on the east bank.
• Russia continues to face skilled and unskilled labor shortages amid inconsistent and contradictory Kremlin policies that disincentivize Russians who fled Russia and migrant workers from working in Russia while simultaneously trying to increase Russian industrial capacity and force generation.
• Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• The Russian Supreme Court ruled that certain Russian mobilized individuals have the right to serve in the Russian Alternative Civil Service (AKS) rather than on the front lines.
• Russian occupation officials continue to establish programs aimed at indoctrinating Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine into Russian national and cultural identities.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

German exports of cars and spare parts to Kyrgyzstan increased by 5500% after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A graph showing this was published https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1728767789065023758/photo/1 by Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
"You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that this is all headed to Russia," Brooks writes.

The photo shows a swastika-shaped scar on the face of a prisoner who was tortured by Russians.
The man underwent a procedure to get rid of the scar. The photo was published https://www.instagram.com/p/C0G1iVHNyDd/?img_index=1 by the Neopalymi project, which treats people who have suffered burns and scars as a result of the war in Ukraine for free.