Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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I still read them, and am grateful for them.

Great, then clearly it's worth carrying on =)

I was about to add my voice to the chorus of please carry on. I will add though, that if it becomes too much please put yourself first. thank you for all the hard work and dedication in keeping us up to date.

@DancesWithDucks I also read your summaries most days, especially as my focus is elsewhere a lot, so much appreciated. As others have said though, it is a lot to do, so would certainly understand if you weren't able to keep up with them.

Also be interested in the views of people like @MissConductUS on what is happening in Venezuela. Something I was reading suggested this was also Putin's doing (and I confess, despite Britain's apparently historic involvement, I know next to nothing about the dispute). Is this likely to affect the US, and if so, in what way?

This border dispute was settled by an international court of arbitration in 1899.

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1866-1898/venezuela

Venezuelans have never accepted the outcome and the vast majority of the population thinks that the territory is rightly theirs. It was never much of an issue until oil was discovered there. Maduro putting this on the ballot for people to vote on is like asking, "Do you like ice cream?". Maduro never said he would do anything about it based on the vote.

Invading Guiana is not a realistic option. The Venezuelan Army is not a particularly effective force, and the neighboring countries have indicated that they would support Guiana militarily if attacked. The US has said this also, and it would be quite easy for us to do so from our many military installations in Texas and Florida. It would be a humiliating defeat for the Venezuelans under almost any set of assumptions.

Maduro seems to have done this to improve his standing in the polls as he prepares to rig the next election. The economic situation in Venezuela is quite dire and has been getting worse for years. So no, I don't see Putin's hand in this. And I don't see any impact on the US, as I doubt Maduro is daft enough to take it any further.

@MissConductUS Thanks for the briefing - so maybe scaremongering on Twitter that I happened to fall over. They seemed to think that with Brazil now a mate of Venezuela, Brazil wouldn't get involved, and that the Venezuelian army is more than a match for Guyana (and that it would push the US to be fighting yet another war on yet another continent) - and that was all Putin's doing. But one always does have to read anything on twitter, even from someone that one has previously found reasonably reliable, with a huge pinch of salt.

Ukraine's reach is growing

Oleg Popov, a deputy of the "People's Council of the LNR", was killed in a car explosion in Luhansk. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation opened a case of terrorist attack

and
Illia Kyva was a Ukrainian politician from the city of Poltava, who supported Russia. Kyva was a former member of the nationalist organization the Right Sector, before later joining the pro-Russian party Opposition Platform — For Life. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Illia Kyva advocated for Russia and Ukraine to unite. He also supported Russian President Vladimir Putin. In March 2022, the Verkhovna Rada stripped Kyva of his parliamentary mandate. In November 2023, a Ukrainian court sentenced the former lawmaker to 14 years imprisonment in absentia on charges of treason
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/12/06/former-ukrainian-lawmaker-illia-kyva-found-dead-in-moscow-region

He seems to have been fairly high profile.

@Naem, if the US were to intervene to stop an invasion by Venezuela, It would be done with airpower and would be over in a few days. Not much of a war, to be honest.

I despair for the military-related rubbish I see on Twitter. The number of military analysts worth following there is relatively small.

I read them all every day Ducks and I am very grateful too but would understand if you stopped as it must take up loads of time. I confess I don’t click on the links as the synopsis is usually enough but I understand that it’s policy to include links when quoting stuff.
It’s an internal dilemma; I wish there was no need of another thread and the totting up of those wasted lives is heart breaking but I’m here everyday hoping for good news, a breakthrough, that damn bridge finally sinking beneath the waves……

I read the roundups as this thread is more useful than anything on the BBC or ITV, in fact I no long longer watch the news channels due to ridiculous ‘news’ stories and the poor journalism so I would appreciate you carrying on unless it is too much for you. I am a lurker as I don’t have anything to contribute but have been here since the first thread and am constantly hoping that every new one that is started will be the last one we need.

I’m incredibly grateful to all you regular posters 💐

Grateful if you can carry on, Ducks. No question about it :)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of December 4 to 5.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine on the night of December 4 and 5.
• The Russian State Duma will reportedly consider a proposed bill that would recognize the Sea of Azov as an internal Russian body of water, likely setting conditions to coerce recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied Crimea and Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts.
• Russian opposition party Yabloko founder Grigory Yavlinsky advocated for a ceasefire in Ukraine as part of his presidential bid likely in an attempt to distinguish himself from Russian President Vladimir Putin and give voice to Russians who support a ceasefire.
• The Kremlin may be strategically allowing Yavlinsky to criticize the Russian government in order to preserve its veneer of electoral legitimacy and to delegitimize possible support for a ceasefire among factions in the Kremlin.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the benefits that migrants provide to the Russian economy, while promoting ongoing efforts to Russify migrants in Russia and citizens of post-Soviet countries.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia on December 6 and will host Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Russia on December 7— a bout of diplomatic outreach likely focused on strengthening Russia’s position with Gulf States while continuing to solidify the deepening Russian-Iranian security partnership.
• Armenia appears to be effectively abstaining from participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• The Kremlin continues to intensify censorship efforts, targeting prominent Russian messaging and social media app Telegram.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
• Russian forces are reportedly quickly sending poorly trained convict recruits to reinforce assaults elements in Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities are reportedly intensifying their seizure of Ukrainian property in occupied Berdyansk, Donetsk Oblast.

I read the updates religiously every day. Thank you so much for your efforts

@Naem, these are my go-to military analysts on Twitter, in no particular order. Dom Nicholls is better on tactics and doctrine than strategy. He's also majorly cute. 😁

https://twitter.com/shashj

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture

https://twitter.com/general_ben

https://twitter.com/DomNicholls

Shashank posted about the situation in Venezuela earlier today.

It's a bit like how you can tell when an Argentine government is floundering - they start sabre-rattling over the Falklands. They know that they can't achieve everything but it distracts the voters.

It's a bit like how you can tell when an Argentine government is floundering - they start sabre-rattling over the Falklands. They know that they can't achieve everything but it distracts the voters.

Exactly. It's like turning on a laser pointer and moving the dot around on the floor with cats. There's also the hope that the possibility of an external conflict will quiet the opposition for a time.

It's lovely to see these roundups are still useful so of course I'll carry on. It's mainly just checking occasionally that they are still read, when things get a bit quiet in here now and then!

As ever ... these telegram channels are Ukrainian ones so we only ever get one side. You can tell a certain amount from what -isn't- said, but there's a great deal that isn't known.

Whom would you say is worth following? I follow Mark Hertling, a few others. Malcolm Nance is a man with a helluva lot about him too.

Oh doh, jsut seen your post.

For those who haven’t listened already would recommend Timothy Snyder’s interview on Ukraine the Latest from the weekend. Particularly his views on why stalemate isn’t a helpful concept.

Also the latest episode of “This is not a Drill” (previously Doomsday Watch) entitled “are we stumbling into world war 3” - not nearly as depressing as it sounds but really interesting.

I read them all.
But as others have said (and I know when you're away) it is a lot of work so if you want to shorten them feel free. Thanks for doing them.

As ever ... these telegram channels are Ukrainian ones so we only ever get one side. You can tell a certain amount from what -isn't- said, but there's a great deal that isn't known.

Agreed, the people I follow on Twitter are all pro Ukraine so I've definitely created my own private echo chamber. But when I stumble across pro Russian comments/accounts I find it incredibly depressing so I'm happy to continue that way.
I do wonder though how dire the situation is on the front line when day after day we hear the russians 'advanced in some areas'.

I do wonder though how dire the situation is on the front line when day after day we hear the russians 'advanced in some areas'.

Yes, and the conditions are terrible ... But as Defense Minister Umerov said Ukraine has freed half of the land Russia took over in Feb 2022. There are serious problems without doubt but how much of what we see is Russian disinfo campaigns blowing dirty smoke across the West?

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Senate GOP blocks https://kyivindependent.com/senate-gop-blocks-ukraine-funding-bill-from-advancing-in-49-51-vote/ Ukraine funding bill from advancing.
Sixty votes were needed to take up and advance the bill on Dec. 6, but the Senate voted against it in a 49-51 vote, with all Republicans opposing the legislation.

⚡️ Russia to hold presidential elections on March 17. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-hold-presidential-elections-on-march-17/

If given the chance to ask President Vladimir Putin any question, 21% of Russians would ask him when the invasion of Ukraine will end, according to a poll published by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based independent polling organization, on Dec. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/levada-russians-most-interested/

⚡️Yermak, Umerov, Stefanchuk meet with https://kyivindependent.com/sullivan-meets-with-ukrainian-officials-amidst-u-s-ukraine-defense-industrial-base-conference-in-washington-d-c/ top US security officials in DC.

⚡️White House announces https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-announces-plans-to-strengthen-defense-cooperation-and-co-production-with-ukraine/ plans to strengthen defense cooperation with Ukraine.

A pro-Russian former lawmaker, Illia Kyva, was found dead in Moscow on Dec. 6.
According to the Kyiv Independent's source in law enforcement, Kyva's death was a special operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). https://kyivindependent.com/sources-sbu-assassinates-russian-linked-former-mp-kyva-in-moscow/

⚡️Media: SBU behind assassination https://kyivindependent.com/media-sbu-behind-assassination-of-collaborator-in-occupied-luhansk/ of collaborator in occupied Luhansk. Oleg Popov was killed in a car bombing near Avanhard Stadium in central Luhansk on Dec. 6. He served as a deputy in Moscow's proxy government in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

EU members have so far placed orders for only 60,000 artillery shells under a joint procurement scheme, which is a key component of the plan to supply Ukraine with 1 million shells by spring, Reuters reported on Dec. 6, citing undisclosed sources. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-eu-orders-only-60-000-rounds-for-ukraine-under-million-shells-scheme/ [ffs!]

⚡️ Blinken announces 'one of last' defense aid packages https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-175-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/ 'unless Congress passes' further funding. This latest package includes air defense munition, HIMARS munition, artillery shells, air-to-surface High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), anti-tank missiles, and small arms ammunition, among other aid.

Putin met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Dec. 6 as the second part of his trip to the Gulf states, which also included the United Arab Emirates (UAE). https://kyivindependent.com/putin-meets-saudi-crown-prince-during-his-gulf-visit/

⚡️Japan ready to allocate https://kyivindependent.com/japan-ready-to-allocate-4-5-billion-towards-ukraines-recovery-efforts/ $4.5 billion towards Ukraine's recovery efforts.

⚡️Reuters: Ukraine requestshttps://kyivindependent.com/reuters-ukraine-requests-u-s-air-defense-systems-fighter-jets/ U.S. air defense systems, fighter jets.
Ukraine's most recent weapons request includes U.S. air defense systems, F-18 "Hornet" fighter jets, drones, and Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, according to documents seen by Reuters journalists on Dec. 6.

⚡️Slovak truckers threaten https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-truckers-union-threatens-to-completely-block-border-crossing-if-permit-system-issue-is-not-resolved/ to completely block crossing on Ukrainian border.

⚡️G7 to ban direct import of Russian diamonds https://kyivindependent.com/g7-to-ban-direct-import-of-russian-diamonds-since-january/ from January.

⚡️Pistorius: Arms industry increasing https://kyivindependent.com/pistorius-arms-industry-deliver/ capacity, Germany delivers 'what it can'.

Russian forces launched three overnight strikes against a thermal power plant in one of Ukraine's eastern oblasts but failed to halt its operations, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo reported on Dec. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-power-plant-continues-working-despite-3-russian-strikes/

The Nepali police have detained 10 people suspected of charging local youths exorbitant rates for travel visas to Russia, and then sending them to join the Russian military, Reuters reported on Dec. 6, citing a Nepali official. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-nepal-uncovers-smuggling-ring-russian-army/

⚡️UK announces new sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/uk-announces-new-sanctions-against-businesses-individuals-that-support-russias-war-effort/ against suppliers that support Russia's war effort.

Zelensky on Dec. 6 signed into law a bill that increases the profit tax for banks from 18% to 50% in 2023 and sets the rate at 25% starting from 2024. Funds from the increased tax rate will be directed towards Ukraine's military expenses. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-on-additional-tax-rate-for-banks/

Zelenksy signed a law that resumes tax inspections for businesses, the online portal of the Ukrainian parliament announced on Dec. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-resuming-tax-audits-for-businesses/

⚡️ US company offers to help Ukraine build shelters using 3D printers. https://kyivindependent.com/us-company-to-help-ukraine-build-shelters-using-3d-printers/

A man from Luhansk was sentenced to 12 years in prison for voluntarily fighting in the ranks of Russian proxy forces in Luhansk Oblast, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Dec. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/luhansk-man-sentenced-to-12-years-over-fighting-for-russian-proxy-forces/

⚡️ School shooting https://kyivindependent.com/school-shooting-in-russias-bryansk-results-in-2-dead-5-injured/ in Russia's Bryansk results in 2 dead, 5 injured. "According to preliminary data from the investigation, a 14-year-old girl brought a pump-action shotgun to school, from which she fired shots at her classmates," the Bryansk Oblast Investigative Committee reported.

Again over a thousand dead and a lot of hardware destroyed. Long may it continue until the Russians withdraw out of Ukraine, leaving Mother Russia with hundreds of thousands less men and far poorer.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 7
■ Strikes above 7-day average, combat engagements stay unchanged ■ Many settlements under artillery fire
■ Troop & equipment losses above 7-day average
■ Great tank losses

If given the chance to ask President Vladimir Putin any question, 21% of Russians would ask him when the invasion of Ukraine will end, according to a poll published by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based independent polling organization

21% seems ridiculously low to me. Their country aggressively invades a sovereign neighbour, commits countless war crimes - rape, torture, kidnapping, genocide, looses (to date) over 300,000 men to death and disability on the battlefield, and only 1 in 5 people wonders when it might end?
What is wrong with these people? It goes to show how little the ongoing war is impacting on most peoples lives in russia.