Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

It's not really secret - just not as famous as the blue lagoon! We haven't been to either but friends have said the secret one is nicer and less commercial. We have been in smaller local pools which we love. Still the hot bath without all the commercial stuff.

We love Iceland and are hoping everyone is kept safe.

Latest from Grindavik roads department.

Volcaholic 🌋 on X: "Video: Extensive damage was found in Grindavík, #Iceland today. Large cracks can be seen in many places. I havent seen any information/images about damage to houses/buildings... 📹 Grindavik Road Administration t.co/bz5PbYsMKK" / X (twitter.com)

Over 800 earthquakes since midnight. But nothing as big as there has been. This is being seen as potentially an opportunity to go and rescue animals. I have my doubts as to whether this will be possible or allowed. Before the last eruption earthquakes settled down in the 24 hrs before the eruption started so I think the scientists will be a lot more wary than the politicians suggesting it might be possible.

I Dont think people should be allowed to go and get animals - they will have scattered, surely?

They are undertaking a risk assessment and then a cabinet meeting at midday will decide if it's safe for anyone to collect essentials. If they do let people go it will a controlled number and for specific reasons.

For 15 - 30 mins max. Thats no time. It literally will be go in grab cat/rabbit/budgie and go.

The logistics of that are beyond me.

a bus for the people, drive round the area and a truck to put the animals on and leave?

pet owners would wander looking for loat dogs and cats, surely?

id want to go back for our budgies, I get it, but I can’t figure out how to DO it.

Gisli Olafsson tweeted the following update an hour ago. He's a MP for the Pirate Party.

Note the part that he says
Decisions will be made this morning on whether there is a possibility for a limited number of inhabitants to go back into the area to pick up necessities and some animals that were left behind in the original evacuation. Scientists have warned that they may not be able to give any further warning of when the magma reaches the surface making it quite dangerous to go in there.

I have to say, there's two things in that for me. Firstly it looks like the scientists are pretty confident an eruption WILL happen. And secondly they really don't think people should be going back to the area (though others will probably make that call).

Part of me thinks theres no chance it will happen and politicians are actively stalling for time in the hope the eruption will start and put an end to the calls to return. Or that the scientists will come up with something that gives a very firm NO to a return. They just don't want to openly say it just yet because "won't someone think of the poor animals".

I could be wrong.

All the mood music seems to be preparing for something in the next 24 to 48 hours tops tbh.

That makes sense. People will be losing their minds over their left behind animals, and passports and medication too.

politics is people control and the last thing anyone needs is panicked pet owners peering into gassy fissures for a kitten.

what a nightmare.

I wouldn't worry much about a passport. It takes days to get a new Icelandic passport.

People who left before the official evacuation did likely expect to be able to go back though so there must be a lot of items of value as well as animals.

The government is not at the helm in these situations in Iceland. It's the Department of Civil Protection - which is part of the Police. They work closely with the Met Office, other scientists, and Search and Rescue teams.

Perhaps in the UK it would be politicians getting advice from experts and making decisions based on that? But emergency response in Iceland is more delegated to the actual experts with the government in a supporting role. What I mean is the government will essentially do as they are told. They're not going to be playing politics with this.

Part of the problem is that they also mentioned horses, chickens and sheep. So it isn't simply a case of picking up a bird cage or putting your rabbits in a pet carrier. I think that dogs and cats that were indoors were all evacuated in the night with the people, but cats that were outside couldn't be found in time, and you can hardly round up a flock of sheep at high speed in the middle of the night either.

DH and I were talking about it this morning, and we wondered would we go in to rescue our cats? We both said yes, we would.

I've seen fissures opening in the previous 3 eruptions (on camera, not lucky enough to be there in person) and it's not like BAM lava everywhere, like a sudden explosion.

The ground begins to crack and the crack opens up wider and wider and you see smoke/steam from evaporating moisture and burning vegetation then eventually the lava starts to spurt up. At least in those eruptions, it took a few minutes, plenty long enough to move away, and fissures began small and gradually grew. So I'm not sure it's as crazy dangerous for a few people to set foot there for a short time in the company of SAR as some are making out.

SAR and Vegagerðin have obviously been there a few times since the evacuation.

Although they do say there is a lot more magma involved in this event so maybe it will happen more violently, I don't know. I'm not saying it's safe to be there, it's definitely a big risk.

Experts in charge?

what a good idea <side eyes Michael Gove>

It's a tough call. You'd have to be very sure you had more than one route back out again, you could get cut off by an eruption or further earthquake cracking the road. Honestly think it's very dangerous.

I thought the danger wasn't magma. The real danger is the invisible pockets of gas as the magma rises to the surface. You can't tell which cracks thats coming from.

(Which also explains why there will be a time limit on anyone entering the zone).

Latest

It's a comforting fact anyway that in all of Iceland's history, nobody has ever been directly killed by a volcano, not even in 1973.

It's nice and windy in Grindavík most days. You need a still day for volcanic gas to pool into deadly concentrations. Otherwise it's quickly dispersed and might not be good for you but isn't going to have any immediate effect. I honestly don't think gas is the concern right now - haven't heard our scientists talking about that anyway.

Indirectly, volcanoes have caused a lot of deaths in Iceland with the poisoning of vegetation and livestock and climate impacts leading to famine, but I hope we'd be in a better position to deal with that kind of scenario now.

Looks like another webcam going up here:

Just reading the latest. They are letting residents from the eastern most surburb return to get pets and essential belonging. They will be driven in by responders who will accompany them to their property and have 5 minutes only. They aren't going to let people into other areas. There is a special operation to get all horses in the horse district north of Austurver. The coastguard is going to monitor the situation as people do this by helicopter as well as taking pictures for scientists.

On the earthquake situation:
Possibilities ranked - eruption near town still most likelyMagnús Tumi Guðmundsson, professor of geophysics, says that the seismic process has only slowed down - it is still going on.

"The chances of this ending in an eruption must be considered considerable. It started off really fast but thankfully it has slowed down a bit. However, that does not tell us anything about what happens next."

Magnús Tumi believes that as the situation is now, it is very unlikely that any fissure eruption will extend over a significant length. "We still have to be ready for everything [however]."

Model calculations made by scientists at the Icelandic Met Office show that the magma has thickened.

"But there are no signs that this [area] is completely breaking down."

Magnús Tumi says that the first scenario is that an eruption happens, most likely, unfortunately, near Grindavík, but it could also be north of the town.

"The second scenario is that it calms down [with no eruption], and the third scenario is that it stretches out to [and happens under the] sea, which we think is the least likely."

They are also putting in a bunch of new webcams to monitor the area.

You can see a big crack is forming here.

https://www.facebook.com/100063763111590/posts/846597960808967/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

Was just about to post similar. Being reported by RUV.is:

Crack opens in GrindavíkA large and long fissure has opened in several places in and around Grindavík due to the magma intrusion that started early on Friday.

This is stated on the Facebook page Eldfjalla-og naturvárhópor Suðurland (South Iceland volcano and natural hazard group.)

The group received images from a town resident, Ingibergur

The most recent pictures taken by Ingibergur, on Friday afternoon, before the town was evacuated, shows a crack, which seems to have slipped significantly with soil fallen into it.

The group says that the slippage of the crack is a direct result of the ongoing magma intrusion.

"Looking toward the town you can see how the crack is heading straight through the centre of town. There, marks of the crack disappear under structures, but from the little footage that has been obtained from the town this weekend it is clear that much damage has been done by these movements."

The photos were taken on Friday at 16:30pm. It was a crack that has been there prior to the earthquakes and was known to locals as Stamphólsgjá but obviously its got much bigger.

Ok just got googlemaps using a satellite view and used those pictures on facebook, and drew a straightline to the Sports Centre where that fracture looks to be.

It literally goes slap bang straight through the very centre of the town. See pic I've drawn up. Hopefully you can see on MN, but if it doesn't look on googlemaps - I think the fracture is in the field down by Einhamar Seafood (bottom red circle) and the sports hall is the green mark in the upper red circle.

No wonder they are talking about worse case scenarios and are refusing to let people return to the rest of the town!