Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

Going by what I’ve been reading, I think it makes a difference if it erupts under the sea - in that case, I think an ash cloud (and disruption to flights, like in 2010/2015) is more likely. Why that is, I have no idea.
(I think they are now saying that a sea eruption is possible.)

Fingers crossed for a sea eruption, that will be much better for the town’s inhabitants. I’m guessing?

Guessing the par for that course will have increased somewhat in recent weeks...

Nobody knows...

As mentioned in a couple of my pps there are volcanic eruptions, on-going, around the world 24/7..Etna bubbles away regularly, there's usually something going on somewhere in Indonesia/Japan/Alaska.....As long as the ash plume isn't significantly dense and isn't either at airliner cruising altitudes or at ground level near airports those eruptions don't effect aviation.

ATM there's simply no way of knowing if any ash will effect Keflavik or Reykjavik, let alone the UK...we have to wait and see if there is any ash chucked skywards, if so how high does it go and how far/where does it get spread.

FWIW as a slight aside and far as the UK goes I think there was a feeling that the UK and others authorities were way way too conservative in their response last time around - they were rightly quick to close airspace ("can't be too careful") but then they really dragged their heels when it came to opening things up again - I was in the airline industry in the time and there was a feeling no politician was prepared to sign off on allowing flights to operate again...hopefully that won't happen again, if at all.

Into and out of Keflavik. Possibly.

Into and out of the UK generally. No.

I follow a bunch of volcano experts on twitter. What they seem to be saying is that it would be an explosive explosion but not in the same way as the 2010 eruption which is at altitude and with glacial conditions.

The blue lagoon is very beautiful

Volcano Twitter (!!!):

Dr Robin George Andrews AT squigglyvolcano
PSA: The pending Iceland eruption will not produce a colossal and long-lived ash cloud like the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull – you need an erupting into a glacier or ice sheet for that with this sort of magma – and it will have NO EFFECT ON THE CLIMATE WHATSOEVER.

Professor Claire J Horwell at claire_horwell
I believe there is a chance of a sub-sea eruption in which case phreatomagmatic activity would produce ash. Climate effects are unlikely but the scale and duration of this potential eruption are currently unclear

Dr Robin George Andrews AT squigglyvolcano
Right, but not a sustained, towering ash column, I mean. And re: climate effects, I’m referring to the “well there won’t be a summer” and “climate change is now fixed” messages I’m seeing.

Mike Burton AT mikeburton_volc
Well it actually could be a sustained ash plume during a Surtseyan eruption but yes you’re right unlikely to reach stratosphere. But tropopause is low in high lat window so maybe even that is possible.

Dr Robin George Andrews AT squigglyvolcano
Fair point—more smol than colossal. Hard to sum up so much in one single tweet! (AT Vedurstofan even note that an undersea eruption is unlikely, based on historic evidence.) I’m basically trying to convey that this won’t be like 2010 to those many, many tweeters suggesting that.

Mike Burton AT mikeburton_volc
That is a very fair point!

Dr Robin George Andrews AT squigglyvolcano
Appreciating the caveats though! Every hour’s a learning experience.

To be honest, I think that most people are quite rightly far more concerned for the people of Iceland at the moment.

Very recently come back from Iceland. Keep thinking of people we met and places we visited. Watching the situation closely and hoping people stay safe.

I didnt say they wouldn’t be. It was a simple question……we can consider more than one angle at once you know. 🤷‍♀️

I did say if a sea eruption is better for the inhabitants I’d hope for that even though it increases the risk of an ash cloud.

@RedToothBrush Interesting to see the varying scenarios. We visited last year and everyone was so friendly. I hope everyone stays safe.

Dr Evgenia Ilyinskaya AT EIlyinskaya
A good time to remind people about - https://icelandicvolcanoes.is/^^ the official source of background info about Iceland volcanoes. Includes info on possible eruption scenarios, the largest known eruption, and interactive maps of past lava flows and tephra layers

Here is the relevant bit:
https://icelandicvolcanoes.is/?volcano=REY#

4. Eruption History and PatternCentral volcanoThis volcanic system has no central volcano. Fissure swarm Reykjanes volcanic system:In the last 3500 years three Fires have taken place, at 3100, 2000 and 800 years ago. Each time, lava flowed from crater rows on land, and tephra was produced where the fissures extended beyond the shore. The length of fissures ranged from 3 to 8 km. During Holocene, eruptions have been confined to two subswarms, the Stampar subswarm and the Sýrfell subswarm, lying 2 km apart. The Sýrfell subswarm has been more active with some 10 fissure eruptions. On the Stampar subswarm four eruptions are known, including two of the most recent ones, 2000 and 800 years ago. Both these swarms extend towards southwest beyond the shore. In total, 15 different tephra layers are known in soils at Reykjanes, each representing an eruption on the offshore part of the system. Lava flows inland have not been connected to all these tephra layers. During the Reykjanes Fires 1210-1240 CE eruptions in the sea off Reykjanes may have occurred six times, according to written sources, and a lava flow covering 4.6 km2 was formed.

Svartsengi volcanic system:No tephra has been produced in the Svartsengi system during the Holocene, but 12-15 different lava flows are known. They erupted in the Eldvörp and the Svartsengi subswarms, lying ~ 3 km apart. The volcanism in the Svartsengi volcanic system follows the same episodic pattern as seen in the Reykjanes system. In the last Fires, 1210-1240 CE lava flows covering about 50 km2 were formed within the Svartsengi volcanic system.
Frequency and duration of eruptions
Frequency:The distribution of volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula over time indicates alternating periods of volcano-tectonic activity and periods of seismo-tectonic activity. Periods of volcano-tectonic activity seem to have occurred at 900-1200 yr intervals during the last 3500 yrs , apparently beginning in the eastern part of the peninsula, in the Brennisteinsfjöll and Krýsuvík volcanic systems and then moving towards the west, generally, but not always, activating the Svartsengi and the Reykjanes volcanic systems.

Duration:Periods of volcano-tectonic activity last intermittingly for 100-500 years within each of the volcanic systems. The volcanic activity is characterized by one or more “Fires” (eruptive episodes) that last for a few decades. It is not known how long individual eruptions within each Fire episode may last. In the Reykjanes and Svartsengi volcanic systems some 780 yrs have elapsed since the last eruption in 1240 CE. Based on the present knowledge, no signs indicating a volcanic eruption in the coming decades have been detected.

8. Volcanic HazardsProximal areas (<30 km distance from source)Heavy tephra fall, in range of 30-100 cm in Reykjanes (i.e. if source is close to the SW-shore) to c. 3-6 cm 20-30 km away from source. Air traffic might be disrupted to some extent.
   Both the Reykjanes and Svartsengi geothermal power plants are sited on recent lava flows.
   Pipelines and power lines might be severed due to faulting. The town of Grindavík is situated on Holocene lavas 1-2 km south of the Svartsengi volcanic system.
   Ground transportation might be disrupted due to tephra fall, lava flows and faulting. The main route to the international airport at Keflavík might get blocked.Medial areas (30-150 km distance from source)Some minor tephra fall, < 0.5 cm thick (c. 70 km from source).Distal areas (>150 km distance from source)Unknown, no contemporary descriptions exist. Tephra fall more than 100 km away from source is insignificant, <0.1 cm.

9. Possible Scenarios:Volcanic activity on the Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic systems is characterized by episodes of eruptive activity or ‘Fires’ lasting decades. Recurrence time: One eruptive episode in 1100 years.
   One episode of eruptive activity (‘Fires’) has occurred in Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic systems in historical times, 1210-1240 CE. During these Fires, at least six discrete eruptions occurred at 2 to 12 year intervals. The activity started in the Reykjanes volcanic system and then moved towards Svartsengi volcanic system in later stages of the Fires. One lava was produced at Reykjanes and three at Svartsengi. Surtseyan eruptions took place in the sea off Reykjanes peninsula during this episode, depositing four tephra layers. Two of these tephra layers have been found in the Reykjavík capital area (~45 km distance).
   Small eruptions (tephra fallout and lava flows <0.1 km3, 3 out of 6 eruptions during the last episode)Eruptions in this scenario are fissure eruptions, on land or partially extending into the sea off Reykjanes peninsula. These eruptions produce small amounts of lava and tephra. Three tephra layers from small events have been deposited on land; two have a limited distribution. Plume height is unknown, but likely <10 km. Precursory signals and warning period is unknown.Moderate eruptions (tephra fallout and lava flows 0.1-0.5 km3, 3 out of 6 eruptions during the last episode)Eruptions in this scenario are fissure eruptions, predominantly on land but may partially extend into the sea off the Reykjanes peninsula. An eruption in the Reykjanes volcanic system in 1226 CE produced a total ~ 0.1 km3 of tephra. In the Svartsengi volcanic system lavas covering 50 km2 with volume of >0.3 km3 were erupted from fissures between 1230 and 1240 CE. Plume height is unknown, but likely <10km. Precursory signals and warning period is unknown.Large eruptions (tephra fallout and lava flows >0.5 km3)Eruptions of this size are unknown in Reykjanes-Svartsengi systems.11) The largest explosive eruption occurred in Reykjanes 1226 CE emitting ~0.1 km3 tephra (same event as described under Moderate eruption scenario). During this eruption tephra was carried by winds towards the E and NE, covering the whole of the Reykjanes peninsula and found in soil out to 100 km distance from the vents.
   Written sources infer that the tephra fall caused problems for livestock in adjacent areas. It may have caused soil erosion in the western part of the Reykjanes Peninsula. The duration of the 1226 CE eruption is not known but presumably it lasted for some weeks. Lava flows associated with the 1210-1240 Fires cover 50 km2 with volume of >0.3 km3.
   The largest known effusive eruption that is geographically associated with the Reykjanes and Svartsengi volcanic systems occurred more than 13.000 years ago and produced the ~6 km3 Sandfellshæð lava shield.

It’s near(ish) to the famous big geyser. If you Google it, it’s about £20 to get in - the blue lagoon is about 4 times the cost IIRC.

They are expecting a small to medium scale eruption from everything I've seen so should be line roughly with the above.

They are extremely concerned about the possible ash fall and disruption to the airport, tourism (The Blue Lagoon is very close to this - the road to Grindavik is the road to the The Lagoon and the power station), the road network, the power supply network and agriculture.

So far, everything is lining up to be close to the worse case scenario based on the above - but this isn't set in stone. The location of the magma is 'sub-optimal' to say the least though.

See this key bit of the above:
Proximal areas (<30 km distance from source)

Heavy tephra fall, in range of 30-100 cm in Reykjanes (i.e. if source is close to the SW-shore) to c. 3-6 cm 20-30 km away from source.
Air traffic might be disrupted to some extent.
Both the Reykjanes and Svartsengi geothermal power plants are sited on recent lava flows.
Pipelines and power lines might be severed due to faulting. The town of Grindavík is situated on Holocene lavas 1-2 km south of the Svartsengi volcanic system.
Ground transportation might be disrupted due to tephra fall, lava flows and faulting.
The main route to the international airport at Keflavík might get blocked.

For reference Reykjavik is roughly 40km as the crow flies from Grindavik. Klefavik is just 18km and to the East which is the direction they are worried about.

The biggest issue is how long an eruption might last really - they don't know. The first eruption since the area became active again was a good few months though the subsequent ones have been shorter.

Keep in mind how the tourism sector is one of Iceland's biggest. Last year some 6million people passed through Klefavik. (2018 was the peak with 9million) The airport being affected is a MASSIVE deal for Iceland. Already the krona has taken a hit over concerns about an imminent eruption.

One of the draws with the Blue Lagoon is its colour and instagramability. But its got a bit of a reputation about the quality of the water (its not pleasant).

Alternatives to the Blue Lagoon:
https://wakeupreykjavik.com/blue-lagoon-alternatives

Nerd alert. Just been looking up stuff to do with volcanic activity and solar activity because I know a storm storm is due tonight/early tomorrow.

Turns out there's a bunch of research on this:
As to the activity of volcanic eruptions, there is a strong indication that the same solar effect enhances the frequency of eruptions in periods of high solar flare activity of the solar cycles. This is shown not only for Mt. Etna but also for other main volcanoes on the globe, the Mt. St. Helens (USA), Mt. Unzen (Japan), Pinatubo (Philippines) and El Chichon (Mexico). Since the effect can be verified in so many regions, it seems to be a very general and powerful effect with far reaching mechanic implications for seismic as well as volcanic activity.

There was also a study that showed a significant correlation between large earthquakes and solar storms, with these larger earthquakes happening with about a day's lag from a solar storm.

Will be interesting to see if there is an eruption, where it will be, how big it will be and when it will be.

The Sky Lagoon on the edge of Reykjavik also looks like a nice alternative. But there's also many public swimming pools that also have hot tubs so another option.

https://www.skylagoon.com/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA6byqBhAWEiwAnGCA4CJGjVjigUyV1R8i5K3blVicL-GcAb-E-Djp7lLnZLP7LFdsT9w1GRoC6n0QAvD_BwE

The Sky Lagoon is lovely. We didn't do the Secret Lagoon due to the roads being dicey when we were there.

The ash cloud does depend on whether the magma hits the sea but its not a glacier like 2010.

I'm glad the MSM have finally picked this up.

My concerns are for the people of Iceland rather than flights though.

Here's a good site for the latest geological news on what's happening:

https://www.vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/jardskjalftahrina-nordan-vid-grindavik-hofst-i-nott

This site also great for showing earthquakes in real time. A lot of things you can toggle on and off:

https://vafri.is/quake/

Shawn Willsey (American geologist) is good for no-nonsense updates, this is his latest:

The YT channel Just Icelandic is always worth watching as the guy there Gylfi has a thermal drone and has done many videos of Iceland generally. He's not a geologist but is worth listening to anyway, I think. His drone footage is really good.

Rob Tasker (Canadian but I think lives in Iceland now) does good updates:

Other good webcam views of the area:

The lagoons at both the Blue Lagoon spa and the hotel are nicer than the main blue lagoon. We only dipped into the main one for 10 minutes to say we'd been in. The spa one is a bit more polished but the hotel one was the best IMO. Absolutely stunning being surrounded by the lava fields and mountain in relative privacy.

The USGS says there is no correlation between earthquakes and solar storms. There is also precious little that I can see in literature about a correlation between eruptions and solar storms. I would be interested in the mechanisms of such a connection if such a correlation was verified.

There are a few papers kicking around on the topic links to a couple below but no idea how much credibility/traction the theory has with all the specialists...

There's obviously (?) a connection between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field ( for example magnetometers at sea level register minor changes in that field during major Auroral events). Whether those changes can drive what's going on below the Earth's surface..???

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EGUGA..20..114D/abstract

https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=122352

I just hope that they are able to go back into the town today and rescue the remaining stranded animals and pets.

This has been quite a useful source of live updates from the Independent.

Fingers crossed it will be a controlled magma flow rather than a destructive eruption.

Animals are possibly going to be collected today . . .

Iceland earthquakes - live: Blue Lagoon closed as eruption expected ‘within hours’ and Grindavik evacuated | The Independent