Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

18. November 2023 – 13:15 (Source RUV) Kristín Jónsdóttir: magma very close to surface

Kristín Jónsdóttir, head of the volcanic activity department at the Icelandic Met Office, says that the situation is similar to what it has been in recent days. Gradually the seismic activity decreases and so does the rate of [land] deformation.

"We measure fewer and smaller earthquakes as time goes on," says Kristín. The magma intrusion continues to deepen and widen, but does so more slowly than before.

Kristín says that this decreasing activity indicates that magma has reached very high up in the earth's crust and does not now need much for it to reach the surface, not unlike what was seen on the eve of the 2021 eruption.

"While model calculations still indicate that magma flows into the intrusion, it must be considered probable that an eruption will occur," says Kristín. The data indicates that the greatest widening is in the middle of the intrusion in the area west of Hagafell. It is the most likely place for an eruption, although it could happen anywhere along the intrusion.

She says the exact location of the source is a prerequisite for predicting lava flows. But if there is a source in the middle, west of Hagafell, lava could flow towards Grindavík, but also to the north and west.

Another video from Just Icelandic (Gylfi Gylfason) - quite unsettling, the magma could still break out near the Blue Lagoon and Power Station.

Watching this video it looks like the hotel we stayed in (Northern Lights Inn) could also be destroyed by the eruption if it happens by the power plant and Blue Lagoon. It is the single storey cream building to the right of the power plant’s steam plume at 1.30 on the video.

Yes that would fall into the danger zone too. Right now it looks like Grindavik's electricity is out again.

Looks like the danger areas have been expanded according to the latest update:

https://www.vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/jardskjalftahrina-nordan-vid-grindavik-hofst-i-nott

Link to map: https://www.vedur.is/media/uncategorized/Haettusvaedi_VI_20nov_med_texta.png

I can't translate the 3 grades of risk, maybe @Puffinshop can help!

Danger area A: Danger due to seismic activity.

Danger area B: Danger due to volcanic hazards (including vents opening with no or little warning, lava flow and harmful gases).

Danger area C: Danger due to volcanic hazards as in Danger area B, though increased risk. Higher chance of vents opening, higher chance of harmful gases. Anyone entering this area must be familiar with escape routes and carry gas measuring equipment and gas masks.

OK managed to translate it (found the keyboard shortcuts for the Icelandic letters!)

EDIT: @Puffinshop thank you!

(at one point I did chuckle because I missed one letter and I got 'increased risk due to elk bites' 😂)

Those are very scary warnings.

Hm the machines are almost there 😄

Thank goodness we are safe from elks at least.

It's an amazing language because one letter difference gives a totally different word and not just nonsense.

Haha I am trying to guess which word it was and am drawing a blank. Elk is elgur so did you change eld to elg somewhere? But elggosavá definitely is nonsense. Sometimes Google Translate will make a game guess for you - it can be quite good.

Those pesky elks get everywhere😂

Umm it was the eldgodsavar word, I left out the d or put a g instead I think, but it was so funny because I thought for a moment, 'what? Dangerous elks on top of everything else?' 😂

Prof Shawn Willsey's latest analysis:

Where are the evacuated people avtually
living? How do you find emergency accommodation for an entire town?

I feel bad for those who haven’t been able to get back for their animals. Imagine knowing your parrots starved to death. Those birds are sentient.

Most are living with friends and family. Obviously it's not ideal and in a lot of cases people are in quite cramped conditions. Some people are in holiday cabins out in the countryside, either ones that they own themselves or ones provided by trade unions or other people. Again not ideal as these houses are usually quite far from amenities and are not intended as full time homes.

Then a lot of people who own extra housing - maybe accommodation that they normally rent out to tourists or keep for their own use - have offered it up for free to evacuees who need it.

Everyone has a roof over their head anyway. School children are being squeezed into other schools in the capital area, Yr 1 and 2 in one school, Yr 3 and 4 in another etc.

Animal rescue is all finished now I think. The police continue to run operations to allow residents and businesses to retrieve items of value.

It is all going fairly well considering, but it's still a very hard time for the people of Grindavík and they have an uncertain future ahead.

Don't quote me, but something's telling me it might not be all that long now.

<stands back and prepares to look like a right twit>

It always seems to come right as everyone starts settling down and thinking it won't come after all.

The Met Office are saying that their monitoring will be somewhat hampered by the bad weather over the next few days. High winds and rain make it harder to detect smaller tremors and thick cloud might make it harder to visually spot any vents opening. So it could sneak up on us.

That's what I was thinking - it's all gone quiet and the weather has closed in. It can sneak up when everyone's started to look away.

I thought it would be a few days ago.

The tremors seem to be dying down but there are a few quakes very close to the surface, I assume the lava is now very close. One quake only has to open up a fissure to the surface and then I presume it will flood out.

There was one quake today of almost magnitude 3 at 100m depth.

@Puffinshop how close are you to Grindavik?

I saw that one on the list @GasPanic

About 40 minutes' drive. I'm in the capital area, so well out the way myself.

Ah yes, at a safe distance, I hope! I really hope there's some resolution to this soon as everyone must be on tenterhooks.

Here's Volcanology Prof Þorvaldur Þórðarson talking about the current situation. About an hour long.

Grindavík will move from emergency down to danger level
The change indicates a lowered risk within the town. There is still a chance of an eruption, most likely between Hagafell and Sýlingarfell.

The National Police Commissioner, in consultation with the police chief in Suðurnes, has decided to move the public safety level in Grindavík from an emergency level down to a danger level from 11am today.

A new situational assessment by the Icelandic Meteorological Office shows that the probability of a sudden eruption within the town limits of Grindavík has been decreasing every day. Today the risk is considered small. Land is however still rising in Svartsengi and magma there could flow into the intrusion under Grindavík, though a warning of such a scenario would be detectable on the Met Office's gauges.

This change will give residents more freedom to retrieve belongings. Grindavík town will be open to residents from 9am to 4pm, as long as the situation does not deteriorate. Today the town will open at 11am, when the new, lower danger level comes into effect.

Residents of Grindavík will continue to be asked to register on island.is to get permission to enter the town. Grindavík will be closed to unauthorised traffic, but the media is allowed access.

There is still a possibility of a volcanic eruption, most likely between Hagafell and Sýlingarfell.

[source RUV.is/english livefeed]