Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

I remember seeing photos like that puffin at the discovery centre and thinking ‘wow Icelandic people are bold’ - seeing that lava so close up is amazing.

i hope if people do return the government can help them financially in some way? I hope the blue lagoon can open safely soon as that is a big draw for tourists and that is important for many businesses across Iceland

I watched a lot of the 2023 eruption that was livestreamed by an Icelandic drone pilot, Isak Finnbogason. The footage was incredible, using both FPV and Mavic drones. He was also loaned a thermal drone for a few visits, too. Lava solidified from the 2021 eruptions was still so much hotter than the surrounding area, it's amazing just how long the heat lasts.

https://www.youtube.com/@IcelandFPV

This is the most spectacular by a long way!

Ok, fair enough. It seems like 95 seconds is a believable time to evacuate after all. 🫠 Id understood how small the town is but not that the people being evacuated only had to travel such a short distance to be considered evacuated. @RedToothBrush ‘s explanation was most persuasive ( and nice and polite too! )

Some of those photos were actually an optical illusion - the people were stood on a hill much further back than they appear (there was another hill in-between).

The other issue is it often wasn't Icelandic people being bold - it was tourists being idiots and there were massive concerns about it.

As a rule if there is a sign in Iceland that says 'Danger - do not cross this line' it means danger do not cross this line and culturally Icelanders understand and respect nature cos they've gone up being taught this. The idiot tourists not so much. This is why they keep having fatal incidents at Vik beach for example. If youve been on the golden circle tour there's a fair chance you've seen an idiot tourist ignoring the signs about ice at a waterfall or boiling water ...

I was there, that's my own photo. You could get right up to the edge of the new lava and hear it crackling and feel the heat. There was no hill in between at that visit - April 2021 - only lava. We were a few hundred metres from the crater. Of course very soon after each new fissure started you could no longer get right up to it because the lava spreads.

It was far less dangerous than the waves at Reynisfjara. Lots of people have died there. Thousands and thousands of people visited the eruption and the only injuries were hiking related - sprained ankles and such. A little effusive eruption like Fagradalsfjall was awe inspiring but all the internet hysteria about idiots risking their lives was very overblown. A handful of people did stupid stuff like actually stepping onto fresh lava and were lucky but for the vast majority the most risky part was the hike.

I was on these threads before and someone posted a link to a group where they linked to livestream videos of people at the volcano. Early on, people were right at the edge of the lava - on one occasion people were actually cooking BBQs on it! It was seen as safe to get close up at that time and in that particular place; there were lots of people hiking to get there, and no danger signs.

Thanks to those providing information on the latest developments.

I went many times but that time in April was the best. It was one of the most magical nights of my life and whatever happens I'll always be grateful for that experience.

I wish all this activity had all stayed in the mountains and then we would be feeling excited rather than sadness and worry.

Those photos are amazing puffin! I can well imagine it being an incredible experience. Wow!

Oh that sounds awesome!!

Those photos are amazing. What a fantastic experience. The first time we went to Iceland was a few days before the 2021 eruption and I was so gutted to have missed it.

I absolutely loved it, but always felt like you could really get yourself into trouble and things (weather) could go to shite pretty quickly, so follow the signs, don’t be a dick and if someone tells you something is dangerous, listen to them.

When we went to Iceland we were very impressed at the local attitude to health and safety. They relied on people using their common sense and keeping an eye on their DC.

There was a swift boiling stream issuing from a crack in the ground, with a fence about a foot high along the side and a little sign saying ' HEITT' or something, which obviously meant 'This is a bit toasty, we'd suggest you keep back rather than going for a Darwin Award'.

I couldn’t believe the number of people who went to the water’s edge at Reynisfjara - such incredible stupidity. A friend was there recently, and saw the same thing. I also saw a family with very small children who had stepped over the barrier at one of the big waterfalls, and were scrambling about on wet rocks above a raging torrent of water.

Yes, we saw the same thing at Reynisfjara - so many people ignoring the warning system.

We also went on a trip from Gulfoss to Langjökull glacier on one of those massive trucks. They’d had some rain and so on the road up there was loads of issues with melting snow. We stopped half way for the chance to take some pictures and the driver was super clear about where we should go, stay close to the truck, etc, but people were totally ignoring him.

Þorvaldur Þórðarson,Professor in Volcanology and Petrology at the University of Iceland, has told RÚV English Radio that an "educated guess" would be that an eruption could happen within ten days, and that the chances of it happening diminish after that.

I noticed all of Grindavik's lights are back on. Also a 2.66 mag earth tremor a bit further north of Grindavik in Svartsengi.

Latest from the Met Office, posted about 6 pm:

Seismic activity around the magma dyke has remained fairly steady in recent days. At 5 pm today, around 1,400 earthquakes had been recorded since midnight, the largest 2.9 by Hagafell shortly after 1 pm. Most earthquakes were smaller than 2 and the most concentrated activity was seen by Hagafell.

Land deformation related to the magma dyke continues, though it has slowed a little since yesterday. The latest models based on GPS measurements and satellite data still show that the most significant tectonic divergence is north of Grindavík, near Helgafell. If magma manages to break the surface, it is still most likely to occur in this area.

Today sulphur dioxide was detected from a borehole at Svartsengi, just north of Þorbjörn. The borehole goes diagonally underneath Grindavíkurvegur and extends into the crust towards the Sundhnúkur craters. The end of the borehole is therefore near the part of the crust where the magma dyke is believed to be. Further measurements will be taken tomorrow, but the fact that sulphur dioxide was detected from the borehole confirms that magma is present north of Hagafell, as models have suggested.

The likelihood of an eruption is still considered high. The Met Office continues to monitor signs of seismic activity becoming shallower and sudden divergence, which could precede an eruption. There are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time.

They'll probably translate it themselves soon, but that's basically what it says.
https://www.vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/jardskjalftahrina-nordan-vid-grindavik-hofst-i-nott

We were most amused by an indoor water feature in the Perlan Museum.

Shallow pond at the side of a poorly lit corridor and anyone not looking where they were going or trying to cut the corner would have been straight in.

I wonder how many people did fall in.

Thanks @Puffinshop 😊

Am I right in thinking that a Hagafell eruption could impact the power plant, or at least flow that way? Not sure of the topography.

Helicopter footage you may have not seen. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-67445280

Prof Shawn Willsey's daily update:

I think they have some lava flow models from earlier this year but it very much depends exactly where it would start. Try Google Translate on this, it gives a pretty succinct round up of the different possible scenarios: https://www.visindavefur.is/svar.php?id=85751

I spotted I wrote Helgafell once there before - it is of course Hagafell under discussion. Trying to write that while telling the kids to tidy up and get in pyjamas, didn't go that well!

Thanks @Puffinshop - seems like six of one and half a dozen of another in terms of possibilities! I'll bet the residents just want to know where (if at all) lava is going to erupt. The not knowing must be so stressful.

I see there has just been another 2.95 mag tremor in the Hagafell area, map says it's 2.9 km from Grindavik, does seem to be a concentration of quakes in that area lately.

this is a great site to view Iceland topography and you can also show seismic activity as a timelapse, plus a lot of other cool features.

https://map.is/

Was looking at the quake list a few moments ago.

A couple of fairly sizeable quakes close to the surface so maybe this is going to blow soon.

Yes, I just hope that when (if) it does go, that peoples homes and the power plant are not in the direct path of the lava and can be saved.