Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

You're right, half the town is now in the dark, that's the less populated side. From what I recall the right hand side in the picture is where the subsidence or 'graben' or sinking has occurred, so that's still illuminated.

I could jump in my car and be well out of our small town in that time. You can drive well over a mile in 90 seconds if you put your foot down.

@quivers
I could jump in my car and be well out of our small town in that time. You can drive well over a mile in 90 seconds if you put your foot down.

Exactly my point. Even I you were already in the car and sped off the second the evacuation was announced you would still be in the danger area.

I don't think I'm wrong in thinking being evacuated mean leaving a dangerous area and going to a safe area.

How are you defining the danger area and what do you think the danger was?

They were out of the area of immediate danger and therefore yes, they were in a safe area. The area of immediate danger is not as large as you perhaps think. You can be pretty close to an effusive eruption without being in any great danger. The danger here was that an active fissure would open up somewhere on the known fissure line. You don't need to go that far to escape that danger.

It's strange that you think you have more of a handle on this situation than the Icelandic police and SAR workers who are highly experienced in managing the risks of seismic and volcanic activity.

Happier times in 2021 when the eruption was safely out of the way up in the mountains. These people are not in any significant danger.

This time might be significantly bigger and more powerful but on land it would be the same style eruption as this.

@WaWaWaWaaaaaa you have your car turned around pointing out and door open. You are in your house with the door open and you are physically fit and expecting to have to run as you are at speed anyway so you are dressed and suited and booted and not disabled/carrying a child. The door is open and you hear the siren and you like fuck would be out your house in 5seconds dropping whatever you were carrying, and you would be driving away seconds after that. They are only letting people go in in timed shifts to allow for people to have a clear run at the exits if things happen.

they are not lying in bed in their pyjamas with no expectation, they are prepped and on a timer before even entering and have their evacuation route ready. Some probably just leave their cars running.

@Puffinshop
It's strange that you think you have more of a handle on this situation than the Icelandic police and SAR workers who are highly experienced in managing the risks of seismic and volcanic activity

C'mon, Now you are just being silly I've not suggested anything of the kind.

I know the town is only little and i get the point about everyone being ready to go but I still think 95 seconds is an exaggeration.

@WaWaWaWaaaaaa I think @Puffinshop is better placed than most people on this one.

Found the thread! Joining if I may.

Here we go with today's update from geology Prof Shawn Willsey

I would think one of the sad things for the people of Grindavik is having their community split up. I live in a small town (bigger than Grindavik but yes, I could clear it in a minute if I had to) and the community is strong and very supportive.

It must be so hard to not only lose your home, but also that network of belonging. Though I suppose Iceland is so small in terms of population that it's pretty close-knit anyway.

At 14.44 mins into that video by Shawn Willsey he defines the term Graben.

I was reading earlier that when the first of this series of eruptions happened a couple of years ago, it was three weeks after the intense earthquake swarms began that the eruption actually began. So even if there is an eruption it could be a bit of a wait yet. Though there's a few scientists now saying the risk is decreasing.

I believe the movement is something like 12cm a day still. There's clearly a lot of buildings with very significant structural damage which will be uninhabitable and in need of demolition even if there is no eruption. The assumption that people will be able to return anytime soon is fantasy.

Er, ok. 🙃

But.... I still don't think you could evacuate in 95seconds. I'll admit to not being an evacuation expert or a Seismologist or whatever and its true that my only connection to Iceland is going there on holidays (it's my favourite holiday destination) but I still find it hard to believe that 95 seconds to leave my house get in my car and drive out of a town, even a little town is not enough time. 🤷🏻‍♀️

But they are the people who defined the danger zone, who ordered and executed the evacuation, who timed the evacuation as part of their protocols, and who reported that time.

So you either think you know better than them where the limits of the evacuation should be or that they are lying (which they'd have nothing to gain from as the purpose of recording the time is to help inform their own work in the future).

OK, so subsidence seems to be the key word 👍 Thanks for highlighting that!

Here is the original source of the report about 95
seconds.

https://www.visir.is/g/20232489366d/rymdu-baeinn-a-95-sekundum

As you can see from the link itself it uses the word 'sekundum'

I don't think you need to speak Icelandic to be able to work out the meaning in English. It's not a mistranslation.

Grindavik really isn't a big place. You can drive from one side to the other in minutes when there's traffic.

I would imagine there are several layers of zone in terms of what's considered safe and not safe.

Earlier today there are reports taking about evacuating Sundahverfi which is an industrial area on the eastern side of Grindavik harbour. It isn't clear from the report if this is just an industrial area or a residential one ('fraid I don't know the area well enough to comment). But the point with that is although it's an area that's 'closed' it doesn't look to have been evacuated either (presumably it's being kept open for business if nothing else - keeping in mind the importance of the fishing industry to Iceland and the lack of ports).

So I really don't think the 'dangerzone' itself is all that big although the exclusion zone is much bigger (to keep out rubber neckers and would be looters).

I've driven through Grindavik. If there was an emergency and only a few people in town (all headed out of town). The road network generally has straight roads not bendy one like we are used to in other European cities (which is one reason it feels so American at the same time as feeling so European - it's European in terms of houses and buildings but the roads feel America). I do think 95secs under threat of a volcanic eruption is viable. I do wonder if people suggesting it's not, have actually been to Grindavik.

The source of this report is reputable. It's something I checked before posting. It quotes someone in authority.

Makes sense to me. An evacuation taking 95 minutes makes a lot less sense - you wouldn't allow people to the area if that's how long it would take to evacuate because of the risk involved!

@RedToothBrush Yes, I remember how it all seemed to go quiet and then suddenly there it was. It's hard to know but perhaps following the same pattern? I remember one poor geologist had a bit of a Michael Fish moment in 2021 when he said that it was over and there wouldn't be an eruption, then it happened literally about 30 minutes later.

It might be like Ármann said, that the magma intrusion below Grindavík essentially interrupted the build up of pressure in the Eldvörp fissure and that now the activity will return to that system rather than the Sundhnúkur fissure. He said something about it being two systems in play that were interacting with one another.

Agree the damage in Grindavík is very severe. Many won't be able to return soon, perhaps ever, and many won't want to. There's a lot of that mood and uncertainty about whether the government will build some new housing for people who can't or don't want to return, as they did after 1973. I saw one man say that his girlfriend was terrified to return but that if the town wasn't destroyed and their house was OK they would have to because even an undamaged house in Grindavík is now worthless. It can't be sold.

I think that's the heartbreaking thing - having followed stuff in Iceland for a long time, it's hard for Brits to comprehend the cost of housing in Iceland too and how mortgages work there (due to the financial crises some people found their mortgage had increased in size even if you had paid them off in full according to your terms, meaning you were getting into more debt rather than less.) To find your house and land in Grindavik now utterly worthless is just dreadful. Not everyone will be able to 'start over' due to age or circumstances. There is also likely to be less employment. Pictures from the main fish processing plant today, are not encouraging in terms of the damage there either. Then there's people who would have been employed in places like the sports centre or Lidl - if those places are damaged the jobs are gone for some considerable time too and people face lengthy drives to the next nearest similar service. (If memory serves there's not too many supermarkets close by. You have to go right back up to the main route toward the capital or airport or quite a long way down the coast). Grindavik is pretty 'middle of nowhere' although still in one of the more inhabited bits of Iceland.

I think it's a pretty bleak prospect for many tbh.

Part of me is pretty confident that new housing will be provided and there is precedent. It's a scenario the government have said they are looking at.

But if the damage doesn't get much worse it may be decided that it's more prudent just to rebuild as far as possible without accommodating those who don't want that. And then many people won't have much choice.

That uncertainty is hanging over people. Though many are determined to return and rebuild if they can, you can understand anyone who feels differently.

That uncertainty is going to be months not days isn't it?

Blue Lagoon is closed until at least 30th November (I'm guessing it's a significant employer for Grindavik), there talk of even in a best case scenario, it probably being felt it's three weeks before the scientists will start to be more positive about 'standing down', then there's how fast the government can move, a whole pile of discussions with insurers. Etc etc.

The rest of the world is just talking about magma taking out the town. It doesn't have to be (the main tabloid newspapers in the UK have only really picked up the story of the town about to be destroyed by lava in the last 48 hrs. This has somewhat boogled my mind as to why it's taken so long. Are they trying to verify the story by carrier pigeon or something before publishing?!)

I'm interested in this so thanks for the info.

Quoting my own thread for you to read again @WaWaWaWaaaaaa to see how 95seconds from an alarm and running out the door waiting is completely acceptable and why they would only let people back in the town If they knew this was possible. FFS

95 seconds sounds fine to me. You’d be in your car in under 30 seconds. Which gives you over a minute of driving. On a clear, straight road you’d soon hit 60mph and be a mile down the road after the 95 seconds. The town looks very small.

Bikes stolen from Gindavik. 😧Short update from Rob Tasker. Also noting what I saw last night and you can see on one of the webcams, that half the town is now without electricity.