Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

Some good news: all the emergency evacuation centres have been closed as accommodation has been found for all Grindavík residents.

Thinking logically on this:

Some of the electric had gone off before with the quakes on Friday/Saturday but I know they have done repairs and said they'd restored power to parts of Grindavik which had been affected by this.

If you have a power cut, do you go around turning all the lights off? (You have to remember which lights you had on in order to do this) Or do you wait for your lights to come back on? You might well go and unplug everything, but there every chance you wouldn't do (all) the room lights.

If you had to evacuate before the power was restored, you might well have a bunch of lights you left on by mistake.

That would make sense. I know unplugging appliances and devices was part of the evacuation plan.

I knew MN would have a thread open on this. We stayed on Reykjanes peninsula in spring 2022 just outside Grindavík and very close to the geothermal power station that’s been evacuated. I am watching with interest. I’ll read back through everyone’s posts now to get up to speed.

A bit more from RUV on the significance of the SO2

Gas findings explained by Met Office geophysicist
Sulphur dioxide measured in the atmosphere at Grindavík is an indication that the magma lies very shallow. The town was evacuated just before 3pm when new meters from the Icelandic Met Office recorded elevated levels of the gas.

The new meters do not measure gas pollution at one point like the meters that have been used until now, but in a larger area over the magma intrusion from Grindavík and north to Sundhnúk.

Benedikt Ófeigsson, a geophysicist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says that the amount of SO2 is not high, but that increased values can be a sign that the magma has come closer to the surface.

"SO2 is not released from magma until very close to the surface. It just means the top kilometre."

The last measurements, from this weekend, had measured magma at a depth of about 800 meters. Benedikt says, however, that he expects it to be shallower.

"We are talking about maybe 500 meters. It's unclear, it's so high pressure, it's pressure dependent when it comes up. So it's not possible to tell the depth directly, but it [the magma] must be very shallow for us to see SO2".

The reason for the evacuation was not the dangerous amount of the gas in the air, but the fact that its measurable amount is a sign that the magma is closer to the surface.

The meters were installed two days ago and use sunlight for measurements, so they are only useful for a small part of the day now in the middle of November. There is therefore not extensive reference data to build on. It is therefore not clear that the gas is there to a greater extent than yesterday.

"So we're really just trying to get everything we can out of this device."

However, he says it is quite clear that the SO2 gas pollution is present in the atmosphere.

Really interesting they can only do the measurements for a few hours in the course of a day.

The police chief in Suðurnes, says that hopefully it will be possible to temporarily allow the Grindvíkings back into the town tomorrow. The town was evacuated today when dozens of residents were there, but the evacuation took 95 seconds.

There were 80 - 90 people in Grindavik at the time. It took 95secs for all of them to evacuate.

That's amazing.

95 seconds 🤔. That can't be right unless they are using some weird definition of 'evacuate'. 95 minutes sounds more realistic.

If you were allowed a few minutes to go back into your house, which you knew was balanced on top of a volcanic fissure which could literally erupt at any second, how fast would you shift if you heard a siren go off?

Couldn't sleep, and found a new video from Gylfi Gylfason, who used to live in Grindavik. Understandably he is very sad about what's going on there. A pity he can't put up his thermal drone there! Would be incredibly useful.

New video out by Rob Tasker. There are some unsettling things - the signs for Grindavik and the Blue Lagoon words have been 'crossed out' and a reporter tried to break into a house in Grindavik (not his own)!

Also some livestock still remaining due to the rapid evacuation required yesterday. Hope they can be rescued today!

It's right. The original evacuation late Friday evening took about 90 minutes - 2 hours.
But this was just people returning to fetch things from their houses. They were all with police and SAR and very ready to get the hell out of there at a moment's notice. It's not at all a large town.

Yes, and they were there with the knowledge they had to ready to leave instantly if need be. Only the fit and agile were there so no issues about people with mobility problems or finding people who were out and about. It’s a large village as well, more than a town, so 95 seconds, while impressive, is definitely realistic.

Latest update from the Met Office says that some of the magma at the edge of the dyke seems to be solidifying. You can see it in English here:

https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night

Someone saw on their doorbell camera last night some men taking her child's bike, riding round on it and then bringing it back.

So some people are going into Grindavík at night and messing around, possibly nicking stuff

Imagine taking such a risk. I don't know how they managed to get in but it's a shame if the police and SAR, who are already under a lot of strain, have to start guarding the area at night because some people haven't got any sense or decency.

Also if they were nicking stuff, I can't imagine stooping much lower. Dreadful.

@quivers
If you were allowed a few minutes to go back into your house, which you knew was balanced on top of a volcanic fissure which could literally erupt at any second, how fast would you shift if you heard a siren go off?

I'd be fast but it's impossible to be 'evacuated' in 90 seconds. Evacuate doesn't mean leave your house it means leaving the area of danger. Seeing as the whole town is under the risk of an eruption everyone had to be evacuated from that whole area. They obviously could not have done that in a couple of minutes.

Well, they did. Everyone there was either an emergency response worker or with an emergency response worker. Exit routes all planned and everyone ready to drop everything and leave at speed.

It's not a big place. I've driven through it many times. You can drive right through in under 5 minutes going at normal speed in normal traffic.

Throughout the operation, people going to retrieve items have only been in the town for 10 minutes, in and out.

I can believe it (and have been to Grindavík - it’s small and quite well spaced out). If people were primed before going in that they’d have to be ready to move quickly if the alarm were raised, I can imagine 30 seconds to get in the car, 1 minute to drive past the safety line.

I have also been to the area. Such a beautiful country. Shocking to see that people are misusing the town’s emptiness.

@Puffinshop any ideas on the implications of the lava solidifying?

I don't understand humanity. That's dreadful, and very foolish.

oh, I hadn’t realised there was a thread on here about this. I’ve been following along in the Facebook group.

I’ve been to Iceland a couple of times and absolutely loved it. So sad to see and I feel so much for the residents of Grindavik.

I’ve also been to Grindavik, and can well believe the 95 second evacuation. It’s more of a large village than a town

From what I’ve seen on FB they are only letting a certain amount of people in at a time, accompanied by an emergency worker, in, grab what you need and back out again.

I was wondering what this building was today as I saw 4 cars go in and come out again within a minute. Turns out it's the Bioeffect Greenhouse, where they grow barley and make some kind of skin products! You can see it on Google Earth.

Exactly, it's a town by Icelandic standards (in terms of size and amenities and local administration) but the size of it would be a village in most other countries. With the magma, I'm fully guessing but if they say the general risk of eruption is the same, perhaps solidifying magma means that eruption is more likely occur further north, away from the town and closer to the upwelling at Sundhnúk??If I spot any scientists commenting on the significance of the most recent data, I'll share.

It looks like the power is out in half of the town, from that photo. Which I think is the side where there’s been most damage so far.