Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

981 replies

MagicFox · 26/09/2023 20:14

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
398
DancesWithDucks · 04/10/2023 16:56

@Igotjelly has there been anything specifically worrying? I may have missed something but as far as I'm aware the business over the Artic was the only faint hint of something happening in the nuclear way and that is so far removed from a nuclear weopon of any sort being used that it's like a mangy hyper alert cat stirring itself in slumber, stretching out a paw a bit, turning over and sinking back into a sleep.

I don't think we can forget the nuclear threat mainly because Russia does love waving its scabrid willy. Given the nature of Russia, it has to be weighed up seriously, as the Rand article did very well. But Russia invaded because it thought it could away with it. It seems very unlikely that they will actually take nuclear action unless they experience an existential threat, specially a sudden one.

Igotjelly · 04/10/2023 17:18

DancesWithDucks · 04/10/2023 16:56

@Igotjelly has there been anything specifically worrying? I may have missed something but as far as I'm aware the business over the Artic was the only faint hint of something happening in the nuclear way and that is so far removed from a nuclear weopon of any sort being used that it's like a mangy hyper alert cat stirring itself in slumber, stretching out a paw a bit, turning over and sinking back into a sleep.

I don't think we can forget the nuclear threat mainly because Russia does love waving its scabrid willy. Given the nature of Russia, it has to be weighed up seriously, as the Rand article did very well. But Russia invaded because it thought it could away with it. It seems very unlikely that they will actually take nuclear action unless they experience an existential threat, specially a sudden one.

Nothing overly specific, just the sabre rattling sneaking back into the day to day. It’s all low level at the moment but still there. To be fair experts were clear that we would see the sabre rattling increase as Russia became more desperate so perhaps not all negative.

Another recommendation would be for the latest In Moscow’s Shadow podcast discussing the concept of a forever war in Ukraine, and how it can’t/won’t be the case.

notimagain · 04/10/2023 21:14

has there been anything specifically worrying?

All I've seen is an increase (again) in chatter in some media of the possibility of Russia resuming tests on/under/near Novaya Zemlya....

Those with long memories will possibly recall we discussed this test site before, probably a year or more back, when some in authority in the west looked at fairly run of the mill navigation warning issued for the area and for some reason decided "it'll be any day now"- well it wasn't.

ATM I'm inclined to shrug shoulders and even if a test happens up there it's still a case of "OK, but so what ???"

Don't forget It suits Putin's interests to have the odd scare story running in western MSM to start rattling a few nerves so I'd expect the likes of the Mail will be covering it any day now.

Greenshake · 04/10/2023 21:37

@notimagain i’m with you on this. I am not overly worried about this right now.

Surplus2requirements · 05/10/2023 00:09

The threat of Russia testing isn't a physical threat its diplomatic.

It would be a case of ' look we're prepared to break this treaty, what other treaty would we be prepared to break?'

There is nothing to stop them using tactical nukes now, they are already in breach of so much International Law. The reality of them trying to up the anti by threatening to conduct tests only shows how much they don't want to actually use then.

DancesWithDucks · 05/10/2023 07:13

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-4-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea.
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced on October 4.
  • Autumn and winter weather conditions will slow but not stop Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
  • The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space.
  • CNN reported on October 4 that the US will transfer seized Iranian weapons and ammunition rounds to Ukraine.
  • Russian sources continue to speculate about the current role of former Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander and Wagner Group-affiliate Army General Sergei Surovikin after the Wagner rebellion, further highlighting his continued relevance in the Russian information space.
  • The European Union (EU) is reportedly preparing for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession that will take place in December.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made limited gains near Kreminna.
  • Russian authorities continue efforts to collect information about Russian citizens for future conscription and enlistment cycles.
  • Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin is reportedly heavily involved in Russian infrastructure projects in occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DancesWithDucks · 05/10/2023 10:44

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukrainian forces are steadily advancing, but arms and ammunition shortages, namely air defense systems, are causing difficulties, President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Italian news channel Sky TG24 on Oct. 4. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-shortage-of-arms-ammunition-poses-challenges-to-counteroffensive/

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Spain for European Political Community Summit.
https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/24315

⚡️ Poll: Most Americans favor Ukraine aid, but partisan divide widens. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-most-americans-favor-ukraine-aid-but-partisan-divide-widens/ most Americans continue to support for Ukraine's military (63%) and continued economic assistance (61%), which is slightly lower than a year ago.

⚡️ Ambassador: Ukraine in dialogue with most US House Speaker candidates. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-ukraine-has-good-dialogue-with-most-us-house-speaker-candidates/

⚡️ Bloomberg: Turkey to host next allied meeting to discuss Ukraine peace plan. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-turkey-to-host-next-allied-meeting-to-discuss-ukraine-peace-plan/

⚡️Bild: Scholz blocking https://kyivindependent.com/bild-scholz-rejects-germanys-delivery-of-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine-in-the-foreseeable-future/ delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine for foreseeable future.

⚡️Hungary issues https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-issues-more-demands-following-removal-of-otp-bank-from-international-sponsors-of-war-list/ more demands following suspension of OTP Bank from 'international sponsors of war' list.

Lithuania opened a corridor for Ukrainian grain transit to the Baltic ports, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Oct. 3. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-opens-transit-corridor-for-ukrainian-grain/kyivindependent.com/lithuania-opens-transit-corridor-for-ukrainian-grain/

To prevent safety risks, all units at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) should be brought into cold shutdown, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in their Oct. 4 report. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-all-units-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-should-be-in-cold-shutdown/ [Currently one is in hot shutdown]

⚡️Military intelligence: Special forces land https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-special-forces-land-in-crimea-conduct-operation/ in Crimea, conduct operation. The operation involved a battle with Russian forces, who suffered significant losses, and Ukrainian forces have already returned from the operation, Hromadske reported, citing a HUR source. [there were Ukrainian losses too, but less than the Russian]

Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) hit a Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system near the Russian city of Belgorod, Ukrainian media outlets reported on Oct. 4, citing sources in the SBU. https://kyivindependent.com/media-sbu-destroys-russian-s-400-anti-air-system-near-belgorod/

⚡️https://kyivindependent.com/us-central-command-confiscated-iranian-munitions-sent-to-ukraine/ Over a million rounds of 7.62mm ammunition confiscated from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was transferred by the U.S. to Ukraine, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on Oct. 4.

⚡️Germany to provide Ukraine additional defense gear https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-provide-ukraine-additional-defense-gear-to-safeguard-grain-shipments/ to safeguard grain shipments.

⚡️Moldova to ban https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-to-ban-pro-russian-party-members-from-running-for-election/ pro-Russian party members from running for election.

⚡️Bloomberg: Azerbaijani President cancels https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-azerbaijani-president-cancels-plans-to-attend-peace-talks-with-armenia/ plans to attend peace talks with Armenia.

⚡️Slovakia halts https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-halts-military-aid-to-ukraine-following-election/ military aid to Ukraine following election.

⚡️Ombudsman: Russia to open https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-russia-to-open-military-re-eduction-camp-for-youth-in-occupied-crimea/ military camp for youth in occupied Crimea.

⚡️UN report officially rejects https://kyivindependent.com/un-again-rejects-russias-version-of-olenivka-prison-massacre-confirms-himars-did-not-cause-explosions/ Russian claim that HIMARS caused Olenivka prison explosions.

⚡️Ukraine completes https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-completes-investigation-into-killing-of-euromaidan-protesters-indicts-yanukovych-for-murder/ investigation into killing of EuroMaidan protesters, indicts Yanukovych for murder. In total, more than 100 people were killed during the EuroMaidan protests. These victims are commemorated in Ukraine as the "Heavenly Hundred."

⚡️ SBU detains 3 alleged Russian spies operating in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr oblasts. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-3-alleged-spies-operating-in-kharkiv-zhytomyr-oblasts/

⚡️Police announces discovery https://kyivindependent.com/national-police-fraudulent-scheme-to-sell-non-existent-vehicles-to-the-front-discovered/ of fraud scheme selling non-existent cars for military.
Ukraine's National Police uncovered a criminal fraud network, in which individuals allegedly sold non-existent vehicles, including to soldiers and volunteers who planned to use them on the front, the service reported on Oct. 4.
Six of the scheme's perpetrators were already in jail for robbery, and six others were still at large.

⚡️ NGO Save Ukraine rescues 19 more children https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-rescues-19-children-from-russian-occupied-territories/ from Russian occupation.

⚡️Ukraine develops https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-invisibility-cloak-will-cover-soldiers-from-thermal-imagery/ 'invisibility cloak' to protect soldiers from thermal imagery

Lower hardware losses, higher personnel losses than recently. Still 31 artillery though.
Ragnar Gudmundsson
AT ragnarbjartur
WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 5
■ Strikes below average but most engagements since May 20
■ Highest troop losses in over 3 weeks
■ APVs & tanks above 7-day average ■ Oryx: 39:15/added to records

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 05/10/2023 11:18

From The Telegraph:

Russia may be laying sea mines in the Black Sea to destroy cargo ships heading to and from Ukrainian ports, according to declassified intelligence.
The Foreign Office said Moscow wanted to damage Ukraine’s economy by halting its grain exports, but would seek to blame the sinking of any civilian vessels on Kyiv.
It has previously warned Russia’s the Black Sea Fleet fired cruise missiles on a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in August, which were intercepted by Ukraine’s air defences.
The news comes as Ukraine attempts to ramp up its use of a Black Sea corridor through Nato waters. Yesterday, it said a dozen vessels were ready to head to its ports, while another 10 were ready to leave.
Russia has also sought to pressure Ukrainian ports by attacking with drones and missiles, last night attacking infrastructure in the southern Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
According to Foreign Office estimates, Moscow has damaged 130 port facilities and destroyed 300,000 tonnes of grain since withdrawing from the Black Sea export deal and enforcing a de facto blockade.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “Russia’s pernicious targeting of civilian shipping in the Black Sea demonstrates Putin’s total disregard for civilian lives and the needs of the world’s most vulnerable.”

I read in a longer article, that I now can't find, that Russia fired on a cargo ship but air defence neutralised the attack, and presumably no plausible deniability with that method, so they are now considering using submarines to lay mines in the Black Sea shipping routes.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 05/10/2023 12:03

I watched Living Next Door To Putin on iplayer last night. Very interesting and moving programme.

Igotjelly · 05/10/2023 12:48

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 05/10/2023 12:03

I watched Living Next Door To Putin on iplayer last night. Very interesting and moving programme.

Agreed. I actually nearly cried at the segment about the siege at the Lithuanian news station.

PerkingFaintly · 05/10/2023 13:06

I'm part way through that. Excellent and emotionally tough watch.

That Lithuanian newsreader who thought she was going to die. Thought her colleagues were already dead. And all through she kept broadcastin,g and she and her technician even had the nous to move one of the cameras into the corridor to film the Russians advancing on them. <shudder>

DancesWithDucks · 05/10/2023 15:25

48 dead in a café including a 6yo boy.

Brave, brave heroic Russians.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russian troops have changed tactics: during the Ukrainian offensive, they resorted to "flexible defense" — surrendering positions and retaliating, writes the NYT, citing security experts, Ukrainian officials and military experts.
In addition to the "flexible defense", the advance is slowed by minefields, trenches, tank barriers, as well as the reluctance of NATO allies to provide Ukraine with modern fighter jets and longer-range weapons in the early stages of a full-scale war, the publication emphasizes.

⚡️Germany will transfer additional anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine to protect grain routes. Berlin will send one additional IRIS-T system and more than 10 Gepards to cover cargo bound for Romania. The weapons should arrive in Ukraine by the end of this year.

⚡️ Azerbaijan and Armenia will sign peace under the supervision of the EU, the parties decided not to invite representatives of the Russian Federation.

The UN determined the trajectory of the ammunition that hit the colony in Olenivka — it moved from east to west. The organization also admitted that the explosions were not caused by HIMARS missiles, as the Russians claimed.

Zelenskyy held a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, where they discussed a new package of defense support, which includes additional air defense equipment, artillery, and anti-drone systems, the provision of energy equipment, and the operation of the grain corridor.
"We are preparing to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU under the presidency of Spain," the president added.

President Zelenskyy, in an interview with Sky TG24, expressed that despite the challenging circumstances, elections in Ukraine remain feasible. He emphasized that the possibility of holding elections during wartime hinges on the Ukrainian parliament's ability to address and overcome the various obstacles associated with ensuring secure access to voting.

The price of WTI oil fell below $85 per barrel for the first time since September 1.
November futures for the trading session lost almost 5%.
Brent futures for December delivery also fell nearly 5%, according to trading data. A barrel of this raw material is traded at a level of slightly more than 86 dollars

Kia and Hyundai are set to fully withdraw from the Russian market by the close of 2023, as reported by the pro-Kremlin messaging channel, Mash, citing undisclosed sources.

The UN recognized as genuine the video on which the occupiers shot the murder of an unarmed Ukrainian soldier while proclaiming "Glory to Ukraine!"
Also, the UN considers the video in which Russian war criminals decapitate Ukrainian soldier with a knife to be real.
In total, the organization reported six more cases of extrajudicial shootings of Ukrainian soldiers. In addition, the occupiers forced Ukrainian prisoners of war to walk through minefields and under fire to deliver ammunition to Russian positions or to carry wounded Russians from the battlefield.

Russian textbook claims German unification was 'annexation', — DW
A new Russian history textbook describes the reunification of Germany as the "annexation" of the communist East. German historians say it distorts history and fits the anti-Western narrative of the Putin regime.

The head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration has announced a cafe and a shop destroyed in a targeted missile attack on the village of Hroza. According to preliminary information, the cafe was hit by an "Iskander" missile.
50 people were killed by the Russian terrorists. Additionally, six people, including a child, were injured as a result of the attack.
At the time of the missile attack, a memorial service for a deceased inmate was held in the cafe, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Klymenko, said.

In less than a month, the extensive Israeli air exercise "Blue Flag 2023" will commence, with the participation of the Air Forces of Israel, Germany, Italy, the USA, France, Greece, and several other nations.
A distinctive aspect of these exercises is that the opposing forces, designated as the "red" forces, will consist of simulated Air Forces from Russia and Iran. The training will involve practicing strikes against S-400 systems, engaging in air battles against Su-35 and Su-57 aircraft, among other scenarios. The roles of these aircraft will be portrayed by the F-35. Also, there are plans to practice deep-strike missions into enemy territory.
Observers from Japan, Morocco, and air force commanders from an additional 20 different countries will be present to witness the exercises.

FPV Drone Geolocation Hit Stats
According to analysts, the Russian Federation lags behind Ukraine in the use of FPV drones by 4-6 months.
However for example the Russian blocking drones "Lancet", which became a danger for the Ukrainian army as well.

Ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation left occupied Sevastopol, relocated to Novorossiysk and Feodosia

Cyborg

September 2023 was the hottest in the world
The average air temperature was +16.38 °C, which is 0.93 °C higher than the similar indicator of 1991-2020 and 1.75 °C higher than in the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DancesWithDucks · 05/10/2023 15:45

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is considering a scenario of freezing the war against Ukraine in order to resume by 2028 and start a new war against the Baltic states. Speaking at the summit of the European Political Community, he said that this was intelligence data

📊The total amount of damage to Ukraine's infrastructure exceeded $151 billion as of September 1, - Kyiv School of Economics

💵The US and the EU are looking for legal opportunities to use $300 billion of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine. Most of this money is now in the European Union.

The U.S. House of Representatives will not be able to pass new laws, including those on aid to Ukraine, until a new speaker is elected, according to Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova.
She also said that the House of Representatives plans to return to work no earlier than next Tuesday, and that discussions on possible candidates will continue until then.

Biden commented on the resignation of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, noting that he was worried about further approval of aid to Ukraine.

❗️Russia's new military budget is almost four times larger than Ukraine's
Total spending on national defense will amount to 103 billion euros. This is 32% more than a year earlier.
At the same time, Ukraine's military budget in 2023 amounted to only €28.6 billion.

❗️In Ukraine, 15,000 soldiers and 11,000 civilians are considered missing. This is the data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs as of September.

🇺🇦🇦🇲 Zelensky met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the first time on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit.

Since the start of the full-scale war, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has exposed more than 60 representatives of the UOC-MP, including 14 metropolitans, for collaborating with the occupiers.

Ukrainian intelligence has informed Zelensky that Russia will increase the number of nuclear threats by the end of the year, the president said in an interview with Italian TV channel Sky TG24. [here we go again!]

🇺🇸 The U.S. Central Command has stated that a batch of confiscated Iranian weapons has already been handed over to Ukraine. It is about 1.1 million rounds of ammunition for assault rifles (7.62 mm). Last year, they were confiscated on the MARWAN ship. They became the property of the United States after a civil suit filed by the Department of Justice.

Russian propagandist Simonyan suggested detonating a nuclear bomb in the sky over Siberia to leave the world without communication and disable all satellites in Earth's orbit. She called it "the most humane option."
This caused a wave of criticism in Russia, particularly among Siberian politicians. Later, she was reported to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation

The head of the Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that Russia’s goal is to occupy not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic countries, Poland and Finland.
Because these states are "the historical lands of Russia".

Ukrainian MiG-29 jets equipped with American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles

Rheinmetall has supplied Ukraine with SurveilSpire systems to combat drones.
The system consists of an observation tower with a day and night vision camera, autopiloted mini-drones for patrol flights, and a control system.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
MissConductUS · 05/10/2023 15:47

notimagain · 05/10/2023 14:38

One for the land warfare people....Bite and hold, or in other words don't expect massive, newsworthy advances...

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/biting-off-what-it-can-chew-ukraine-understands-its-attritional-context/

Interesting piece. Thanks for posting it. I agree with most of what he says. Still, I don't think most American analysts thought that a textbook combined arms strategy would work without overwhelming air superiority, which the Ukrainians clearly would not have.

He's also correct that small unit tactics result in shorter kill chains, but that concept is not alien to American warfighting doctrine. US troops with drones did the same thing in Afghanistan and to a lesser extent, in Iraq.

Kill chain - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_chain

Usou · 05/10/2023 23:38

By my reckoning, Russia will have suffered 300,000 casualties and lost 5,000 tanks and 10,000 APVs by the end of this year.

Will this level of losses not have a major impact on Russia's ability to defend itself or wage war generally?

Any military heads out there (@MissConductUS et al.) able to shine any light?

MissConductUS · 06/10/2023 00:39

@Usou, Russia doesn't need to worry much about defending itself unless it starts a war with NATO. No one wants anything Russia has enough to make it worth dealing with the problems that would come with it.

In terms of raw numbers, they've lost at least 50pc of their ground force combat power. Qualitatively, the situation is worse because their best-trained and equipped units have taken the biggest losses. It would take at least five years to rebuild, retrain, and reequip their army. That's assuming the Russian economy could support that effort without causing civil unrest.

But they still have a substantial air force, surface navy, submarine force, and nuclear force. So, their ability to wage a ground war has been greatly diminished, but they and still fight effectively in other domains.

Could they rebuild and have a go at Estonia or Latvia in five years, hoping that NATO wouldn't do much about it? Possibly, but NATO's most likely response would be to start attacking military assets inside of Russia. Then Putin would be risking a military coup.

Note that the Polish airfield that the American kit is being flown into is just 60 miles from the Russian border, yet the Russians haven't touched it. Putin's chances of surviving a war with NATO are very low, and he knows it.

Usou · 06/10/2023 01:45

@MissConductUS

Thank you very much.

I think there have been a number of newspaper articles on this, but I haven't had time to read them/am too cheap to get an online subscription.

DancesWithDucks · 06/10/2023 08:06

Am not trained as you know but Russia's ability to wage war atm is lessened. They have had to reduce the number of soldiers in the Far East considerably, although not completely.

There are, interestingly, very faint rumbles about the Chinese just starting to cock an interested eye at Vladivostock again (it was ceded to the Russians, oh, 140?? years ago) A map has been published with Vladivostock using the old Chinese name for it. This is no more than a sleeping giant snoring slightly, but all the same. Russia, which is paranoid in the first place, is not going to forget it and is going to make sure it's not unprotected.

China btw has also been able to negotiate a much greater role in the mining of the Russian mineral resources in the East.

Their economic shift towards ONE THIRD of the GPD going towards the military is going to put the country on a more or less permanent war footing. I can't see how that is even remotely sustainable though long term.

DancesWithDucks · 06/10/2023 08:11

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian information operations.
  • Putin offered a bizarre explanation for Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death during a press conference at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 to deflect blame from the Kremlin.
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on October 5.
  • The Russian military may have redeployed elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) and elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade to the Kherson direction.
  • Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast that killed 51 people on October 5 following another series of drone strikes across Ukraine overnight.
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu indicated that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be establishing training regiments that can also serve as in extremis operational or strategic reserves, although this is a low confidence assessment.
  • Russia will reportedly build a permanent naval base in Abkhazia, but it will likely remain small.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance on October 5.
  • Russia continues to use the personal data of Russian citizens for crypto-mobilization efforts.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to advertise programs for the forcible removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DancesWithDucks · 06/10/2023 10:00

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Russia is intensifying attacks in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction of the front line in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts, using both ground forces and air strikes, Illia Yevlash, the spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of Forces, said on air on Oct. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-intensifies-attacks-in-lyman-kupiansk-direction/ [and have made some gains in the last couple weeks]

⚡️Yermak: Russia attacks village in Kharkiv Oblast, killing 51 people. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-kills-51-people-in-single-deadliest-attack-against-civilians-this-year/

Kyiv "put on hold" its complaint against Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary over grain agreements at the World Trade Organization, Ukraine's Trade Representative Taras Kachka said on Oct. 5, as cited by Interfax Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/trade-chief-ukraine-freezes-wto-action-against-poland-hungary-and-slovakia/

⚡️Politico: Biden considering https://kyivindependent.com/politico-biden-considering-using-state-dept-grants-to-bypass-congressional-inaction-on-ukraine-funding/ using State Department grants to bypass congressional inaction on Ukraine funding.

Spain will provide Ukraine with another six Hawk air defense systems to combat potential Russian bombings of civilian facilities and protect the new Black Sea corridor, the Spanish government announced on Oct. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-more-hawk-air-defense-systems-from-spain/

⚡️Scholz pledges https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-pledges-another-patriot-system-to-ukraine/ another Patriot system to Ukraine.

⚡️UK to provide https://kyivindependent.com/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-600-million-in-winter-support-payments/ with $600 million in winter support payments to Ukraine.

⚡️ Rheinmetall to deliver Estonian-designed SurveilSpire mobile drone surveillance systems https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-to-deliver-estonian-designed-mobile-drone-surveillance-systems-to-ukraine/to Ukraine.

Ukrainian hackers paralyzed Russia’s largest airports in a recent attack, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on Oct. 5.
Ukraine’s “IT Army” flooded the Russian airline booking system Leonardo with internet traffic in a massive Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack on Sept. 28. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-hackers-behind-massive-attack-on-russian-airports/

⚡️Moldova opens the door https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-opens-the-doors-for-free-gas-transit-to-and-from-ukraine/ for free gas transit to and from Ukraine.

Japan and Ukraine agreed to establish a joint working group that will develop a strategy for the restoration of Ukraine's agriculture. https://kyivindependent.com/japan-to-help-ukraine-in-restoring-agriculture/

⚡️Zelensky meets https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-european-leaders-armenian-pm-at-granada-summit/ European leaders, Armenian PM at Granada summit.

⚡️Reuters: US public support for providing arms to Ukraine declines https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-public-support-for-providing-arms-to-ukraine-declines/
Support for supplying weapons to Ukraine is diminishing among Americans from both major political parties, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The poll revealed that only 41% of respondents agreed with the statement that Washington "should provide weapons to Ukraine." [every poll says a different story]

Far-right party may hold keys https://kyivindependent.com/rising-far-right-pushes-warsaw-to-act-tough-on-ukraine/ to next Polish government, sets tone in talks with Ukraine

Watch our explainer on why Ukrainians are skeptical of "good Russians."

⚡️ Hungarian Nobel laureate Ferenc Krausz to donate prize money https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-nobel-laureate-to-donate-prize-money-to-ukraine-charity/ to Ukraine charity.

Ukraine's government appointed Ivan Havryliuk (military-tech policies), Stanislav Haider (institutional devt) , and Dmytro Klimenkov (procurement) as new deputy defense ministers as part of recent personnel changes in the Defense Ministry, the government announced on Oct. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/government-appoints-3-new-deputy-defense-ministers/

⚡️Update: Kharkiv attack kills (https://kyivindependent.com/update-https://kyivindependent.com/update-kharkiv-strikes-kill-10-year-old-boy-injures-23-others-including-11-month-old-baby/ 10-year-old boy, injures 23 others, including 11-month-old baby.

⚡️ Russia attacks hospital in Beryslav in Kherson Oblast, injures 2.

Notably more people, less artillery but the numbers of hardware losses overall are considerable.

https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur
■ Strikes on both sides up between days, fewer engagements
■troop losses continue to rise
■ Record APV losses within year & 7-day tank losses as well
■ Oryx: 54:25/added to records

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DancesWithDucks · 06/10/2023 12:19

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that if the full-scale war against Ukraine is "frozen," it would provide the Russian Federation with an opportunity to recover and potentially launch attacks on other countries by 2028.

A Turkish cargo ship struck a mine in the Black Sea off the coast of Romania on Thursday but fortunately sustained minimal damage, as reported by Reuters, citing sources.

The World Bank has revised its economic growth projections for Ukraine, predicting that the country's GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2023. This estimate represents a 1.5-percentage-point increase compared to the previous projection made in June.
Furthermore, the World Bank has improved its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024, now predicting a growth rate of 4.0%, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the earlier estimate. The forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 remains steady at 6.5%.
Several factors are contributing to this improved economic outlook for Ukraine, including a stable electricity supply, increased government spending, foreign aid, higher productivity, and growing confidence among consumers and businesses.
The resumption of economic growth in Ukraine, following the Russian Federation's invasion in 2022, has been attributed in part to increased government consumption, improved electricity supply, and favorable weather conditions boosting agricultural growth.

The Olympic Councils of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions have become members of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC).

According to a report in the Financial Times, Russia is preparing to allocate significant funds for its military efforts in a potential war with Ukraine in 2024. To raise the necessary funds, the Russian government is increasingly relying on irregular sources of revenue, including one-time taxes and fees, and what are referred to as "voluntary donations" that Western businesses must pay when exiting Russia.
In 2024, the Russian government's financing plans involve irregular revenues to the budget reaching a historic high of 2.52 trillion rubles. This funding will come from various sources, including 800 billion rubles in social contributions from Russian companies. An additional 2 billion rubles are expected to come from new export duties tied to exchange rates, "voluntary donations" from Western companies, tax increases, reduced subsidies for energy producers, and higher utility tariffs. Excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco are also set to triple in 2024, contributing to these revenues.
However, analysts are skeptical about the feasibility of Russia raising all the required funds. There is concern that Russia may fall short of its projected revenues by about 1 trillion rubles due to an overly optimistic economic forecast. In such a scenario, the Russian government may resort to imposing additional one-time fees, as it has done in the past.
This information suggests that Russia is making significant financial preparations for potential military actions in 2024, although the ability to secure all the necessary funds remains uncertain.

Rescuers eliminate the consequences of a nighttime drone strike on the border and port infrastructure of Odesa.
A granary was damaged, several trucks were on fire.

The number of people killed as a result of the attack on the village of Hroza, Kharkiv region, has increased to 52 — one more person died in a medical facility.

A child's body was found in the blanket, the boy was most likely still asleep, — photo of the head of the Investigative Department of the State Police in the Kharkiv region

DancesWithDucks · 06/10/2023 12:40

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said he expects the West to stop supporting Ukraine.
When asked about the West's support for Kyiv, he said: "We are waiting for the manifestation of at least some sprouts of common sense."

🤡Grenades, alcohol and drugs are to blame for the downing of Prigozhin's plane. There was no external impact on the plane - Putin

🇬🇧 United Kingdom will provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, including:
▫️£34 million for the UN and charities providing shelter and warm winter clothing to Ukrainians;
▫️10 million for electricity;
▫️£500 million for winterization assistance for three million families.

We asked Ukrainians about corruption [DURING THE WAR WITH RUSSIA]
This video will give you an insight into how Ukrainians feel about corruption in the country, especially during the war with Russia. What is the current level of corruption in Ukraine? Has it decreased? Or has it increased? In addition, we asked citizens if they have ever experienced corruption or bribery in their lives. https://www.youtube.com/@liveukraine_media/videos

🇦🇹The Russian ambassador was summoned to the Austrian Foreign Ministry because of the missile attack on the village of Groza in Kharkiv region, which killed 52 people. The ministry called the attack a war crime.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
L1ttledrummergirl · 06/10/2023 13:47

🤡Grenades, alcohol and drugs are to blame for the downing of Prigozhin's plane. There was no external impact on the plane - Putin

Fucking clown is right, that bollocks is worse than Johnson and Sunak and I thought they had lost it.

StowOnTheWold · 06/10/2023 20:49

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said he expects the West to stop supporting Ukraine.
When asked about the West's support for Kyiv, he said: "We are waiting for the manifestation of at least some sprouts of common sense."

Twat.