Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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"The [Russian] attacks have so far destroyed 280,000 tonnes of grain - enough to feed over one million people for a year, and more than the total Russia promised to donate to African countries."

https://x.com/shashj/status/1701268372523008473?s=12

Article linked above. Surely something has to be done to stop Russia blockading the Black Sea.

New intelligence shows the intended target of a Russian missile attack in the Black Sea was a cargo ship

From:
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Officee and The Rt Hon James Cleverly MPP
Published
11 September 2023

•	Intended target of a Russian missile attack in the Black Sea was a civilian cargo ship
•	Attacks thwarted by Ukrainian forces who shot down multiple missiles heading towards Odesa port
•	Since Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian attacks have destroyed enough grain to feed more than one million people for a year

Intelligence shows that the Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August.
The missiles, which included two Kalibr missiles fired from a Black Sea Fleet missile carrier, were successfully shot down by Ukraine’s forces on 24 August.
Intelligence shows that an intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port.
This attack followed U.S government warnings that the Russian military may launch attacks against civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
Thanks to Ukraine’s air defence, the attack on the civilian ship failed. Not one of the Kalibr missiles reached its intended target.
Despite its failure, this is a clear demonstration of Russia’s continuing attempts to choke Ukraine’s economy, and President Putin’s disregard for the lives of civilians and the interests of countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said:
Putin is trying to win a war he will not win, and these attacks show just how desperate he is.
In targeting cargo ships and Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia is hurting the rest of the world.
This is part of a pattern of Russian aggression in the Black Sea. In July, the Foreign Secretary said the UK believed Russia may target civilian ships in the Black Sea. The US has observed Russia laying more sea mines around Ukrainian ports, and footage showing the detonation of a sea mine in July.
Since July, Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian port and civilian infrastructure. The attacks have so far destroyed 280,000 tonnes of grain - enough to feed over one million people for a year, and more than the total Russia promised to donate to African countries.
Russia has stopped even attempting to justify that these attacks are against legitimate military targets and is cynically targeting civilian infrastructure. President Putin’s intentions are clear for all to see. This is a brutal attempt to choke the Ukrainian economy.
While the UK and our partners continue to do all we can to ensure Ukraine’s exports reaches those who need it most, this pattern of deliberately targeted attacks in the Black Sea by Russia demonstrates President Putin’s willingness to weaponise food and innocent trade at the expense of the rest of the world as they block food from reaching world markets.
Since its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia has:
• Damaged 26 port infrastructure facilities in Odesa, Chornomorsk and Reni.
• Destroyed 280,000 tonnes of grain - more than the total amount Russia promised to donate to African states, and enough to feed over one million people for a year.
• Because of Russia’s decision to withdraw, up to 24 million tonnes of foodstuffs from Ukraine may now not reach global markets over the coming year
• Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was feeding 400 million people worldwide and accounted for 8-10% of global wheat exports and 10-12% of corn and barley exports.
• Ukraine provided over 50% of the wheat for the World Food Programme in 2022 - without the BSGI the WFP will have to replace this with more expensive or lower quality wheat.

The Ukrainian flag in the sky helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces take control of part of Opytne. "The occupiers revealed their positions by opening fire on the huge flag that Ukrainian volunteers launched into the sky from Avdiivka yesterday," said the head of the Avdiivka Military Administration.

During the Battle of Fallujah, a group of insurgents were lured out of their hiding places by a helicopter, making statements in Arabic over a public address system, questioning their manhood and sexual orientation. They had good reason to hide, as an AC-130 gunship was loitering nearby. They came out anyway, with predictable results.

facepalm was the outrage at being called a homosexual really so strong that they died for it?! Oh boy, now that's prejudice.

It's a win-win for Ukraine. EIther their flag flies over the territory freely, or the Russians get their locations revealed :D

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thank you for that article. The grain situation is one of the most pressing aspects of this war.

The US also broadcast heavy metal music over the loudspeakers.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-11-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on September 11 and have reportedly advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Rosgvardia may be recruiting previously imprisoned former Wagner Group fighters, likely to further subsume Wagner remnants while bolstering Russia’s domestic security apparatus.
• Russian border guards expressed similar grievances about limited capabilities and equipment to those voiced by Russian troops serving in Ukraine and continued to express concern over potential Ukrainian raids into Russia.
• The Kremlin’s ruling United Russia party unsurprisingly achieved most of its desired results in highly fraudulent local elections in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Vladivostok in the coming days, likely to discuss bilateral relations and North Korea’s supplies of artillery munitions to Russia.
• US and Armenian forces began joint military exercises in Armenia on September 11.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 11.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least one sector of the front on September 11 and advanced near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian Central Election Committee Head Alexander Sidyakin unsurprisingly claimed that United Russia received the majority of votes in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
• Ukrainian and United Kingdom military officials reported on September 11 that the Russian military intends to mobilize over 400,000 personnel by the end of 2023.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Umerov and Austin hold first call, discuss https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-and-austin-hold-first-call-discuss-upcoming-ramstein-meeting/ upcoming Ramstein meeting.

⚡️Kuleba says there is progress https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-talks-with-germany-on-taurus-missiles-ongoing/ in talks on getting Taurus missiles.

⚡️Armenia holds https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-us-hold-joint-military-exercise/ military drills with US amid souring relations with Russia. On Sept. 1, the Armenian government also sent the Rome Statute, the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court (ICC), to the parliament for ratification. The move irritated Russia because the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

⚡️UK says Russia targeted https://kyivindependent.com/uk-says-russia-targeted-civilian-cargo-ship-in-black-sea/ civilian cargo ship in Black Sea.
The Russian military targeted a civilian cargo ship in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa on Aug. 24, the U.K. Foreign Office said, citing newly obtained intelligence.
Ukraine’s air defenses shot down all Russian missiles heading towards the port, which included two Kalibr missiles launched from a Black Sea Fleet carrier, according to the report.

⚡️Crimean Bridge reported https://kyivindependent.com/kerch-closed-for-nearly-one-hour-overnight/ closed for nearly one hour overnight.
The Crimean Bridge was shut down by Russian proxy authorities in occupied Crimea for nearly one hour during the night of Sept. 12, Russian sources claimed.
No reason has been given for the closure.

⚡️ Polish official: Poland to ask EU to extend Ukrainian grain ban. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-official-poland-to-ask-eu-to-extend-ukrainian-grain-ban/

⚡️ Reuters: Biden Administration close to approving (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-biden-administration-close-to-approving-cluster-munitions-for-ukraine/) a shipment of longer-range missiles packed with cluster bombs for Ukraine.

⚡️ US threatens https://kyivindependent.com/us-threatens-new-sanctions-against-north-korea-in-case-of-arms-transfer/ new sanctions against North Korea in case of arms transfer.

⚡️ Zelensky vetoes controversial bill https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-vetoes-restrictions-on-electronic-declaration-of-assets/ on online asset declarations, that would prolong restrictions on electronic asset declarations for public officials, the president announced on Sept. 12.
"Declarations must be open. At once. Not in a year. The registry should be opened now," Zelensky said on his Telegram channel.

https://kyivindependent.com/istories-rosgvardiya-recruiting-convicts-pardoned-after-fighting-for-wagner/ The Rosgvardia, Russia's National Guard, has begun recruiting pardoned convicts who are veterans of the Wagner mercenary group, the independent Russian news outlet Important Stories reported on Sept. 11. [I wonder if some of these men can't live without violence, are incapable of living in a normal society now]

⚡️UN: 292 civilian casualties recorded https://kyivindependent.com/un-292-civilian-casualties-recorded-in-first-ten-days-of-september/ in first 10 days of September.

⚡️ Council of Europe sets out principles for holding Russia accountable for war damages.
https://kyivindependent.com/council-of-europe-sets-out-principles-for-holding-russia-accountable-for-war/ The justice ministers of the Council of Europe member and observer states have adopted the so-called Riga principles, outlining how Russia should be hold accountable for the losses and damages it has caused in Ukraine, the Council announced on Sept. 11.
The ministers highlighted the need to ensure the proper functioning of the register of Damages in Ukraine, a record of evidence and claims for damage, loss, or injury caused by the Russian aggression.

⚡️ Poll: Majority of EU citizens favor continued support for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/poll-majority-of-europeans-favor-supporting-ukraine/
According to the poll, 86% of Europeans approve of the continued EU humanitarian aid to the people affected by the war. Some 77% accept welcoming refugees, 71% support sanctions, while 67% and 65% believe the EU should support Ukraine on its path toward European integration and the single market, respectively.
Finally, 65% of respondents favor economic and financial support for Ukraine, and 57% think that the EU should support the purchase and supply of military equipment and training to Ukraine.

⚡️Zelensky: Corruption cases in Ukraine don't involve foreign funds kyivindependent.com/zelensky-corruption-cases-in-ukraine-dont-involve-foreign-funds/
In an interview with CNN published on Sept. 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that cases of corruption in Ukraine don't involve financial or military aid sent by Kyiv's partners.
When asked if he thinks he can put in place a system that would stop the corruption, Zelensky said he has "no other way."
"Here, I don't have alternatives, and I don't want them. We don't want to have any compromises with corrupted people, even thoughts about it," the president told CNN's Fareed Zakaria.

⚡️Ukraine, Germany to build https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-germany-to-build-wind-farm-in-chornobyl-exclusion-zone/ wind farm in Chornobyl Exclusion Zone.
The Ukrainian government and the German company NOTUS energy have agreed to jointly build a wind power plant in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, capable of providing electricity to almost 1,000 households.
All sides signed a memorandum of cooperation on the construction project on Sept. 11, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources.

⚡️Bloomberg: US Senator calls for investigation (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-senator-calls-for-investigation-into-musk-following-ukraine-starlink-allegations/) following allegations Elon Musk disrupted Ukraine's strike on Russian fleet.
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) has called for an investigation into Elon Musk and his company, SpaceX, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 12.
The U.S. Congress should investigate "whether we have adequate tools to make sure foreign policy is conducted by the government and not by one billionaire," Warren said on Sept. 11 in Washington, D.C.

⚡️New UK ambassador begins his duty https://kyivindependent.com/new-uk-ambassador-begins-his-duty-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.
Newly appointed U.K. Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Harris has officially started his duty, handing over copies of his credentials to the Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Perebyinis.

⚡️Statue of Soviet secret police founder Felix Dzerzhinsky re-erected (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-re-erects-dzerzhinsky-statue-in-moscow/) in Moscow.
Dzerzhinsky is responsible for the Red Terror, which led to the deaths of between 50,000 and 200,000 people in 1918-1922.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 12
■ Engagements stay slightly below average
■ Troop losses below average, triple-digit equipment
■ Incl. 4x MLRS & 3x air defence systems
■ Oryx: +17, +0(net change) - 30-day ratio rises Note: only summary today

The numbers are still astonishingly high. 43 vehicles, 33 artillery

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Russian occupiers are strengthening defensive structures and building new ones as the Ukrainian Armed Forces advance in southern Ukraine.
Satellite images show new trenches dug 10 kilometers from the current line of contact with the enemy.

❗️Russia has reportedly encountered a significant financial challenge related to its oil sales to India. Approximately $40 billion earned from these transactions has become effectively inaccessible due to the way it was sold.
According to Newsweek, the oil was sold in exchange for rupees, which are not freely convertible and are subject to strict government regulations in India. This means that converting rupees into other major currencies like dollars or euros, or transferring them abroad, is not straightforward. Furthermore, within India, there may be limitations on what these rupees can be used to purchase.
As a result, the majority of the revenue generated from the sale of Russian oil to India has essentially remained within the country. The Russian authorities are now contemplating how best to invest or utilize this money within the Indian market.

The dismantling of the equipment on the "Boyko towers" by Ukraine has significant implications, as explained by Dmytro Pletenchuk, the spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
These towers were previously used by Russia to monitor the surface situation in the Black Sea, including within Ukrainian waters. With this equipment removed, Russia has lost the capability to gather relevant information in the area.
Pletenchuk noted that this development enhances the security of the Odesa region and beyond, as it prevents Russia from reacting in a timely manner or planning activities within Ukrainian waters.

According to Putin, during the counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 543 tanks and almost 18,000 units of armored vehicles of various classes. At the same time, on the eve of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation lied about more than 11 thousand allegedly destroyed tanks and other armored vehicles since the beginning of the war.

❗️The Chinese delegation that visited the temporarily occupied Mariupol may have included not only journalists and bloggers but also officials. In a video, Wang Feng, who stated Russian propaganda slogans about the "killing of the children of Donbas," was seen alongside her husband, Zhou Xiaoping. Zhou Xiaoping is a member of the People's Political Consultative Council under the Chinese Communist Party.
Yuriy Poita, an employee of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, saved and shared screenshots of Xiaoping's posts on the Chinese social network Weibo on Facebook. In these posts, he supported his wife and placed blame for the destruction of the drama theater not on Russia but on Ukraine. However, the Chinese official later deleted these posts.
Previously, it was reported that the Chinese delegation consisted only of pro-Russian bloggers and journalists, and it is unclear whether Zhou Xiaoping was present in Mariupol.

❗️Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, has emphasized that unless the borders of 1991 are respected, the war will persist in various forms indefinitely. He stated, "There is no other option for ending this war. Without it, the conflict will persist in one form or another for the rest of our lives because border skirmishes will never cease, and there will be a continuous exchange of missile strikes and drone attacks."

Ukrainians have achieved remarkable success at the commencement of the 2023 Invictus Games in Dusseldorf, Germany. The Ukrainian contingent has already secured an impressive haul of seven medals.

Matteo Zuppi, the envoy of the Vatican's "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine, is set to depart for China today, as reported by La Repubblica. Tomorrow, Zuppi is expected to hold meetings with the leadership of the People's Republic of China, including possibly with Premier Li Qiang of the State Council of the People's Republic of China.

A monument dedicated to Ukrainian hero Oleksandr Macievskyi was erected in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

State Department says position on ATACMS for Ukraine has not changed
"We continue to have discussions with our Ukrainian counterparts, as well as within the U.S. government, but we do not have a position to announce at this time," said U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. [DAMN]

In his evening address, Volodymyr Zelensky assured that Ukraine would receive additional air defense systems - negotiations with partners are progressing positively.

🇸🇪 The Swedish government will study the possible transfer of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, - Sveriges Radio Ekot.
The Swedish Armed Forces are due to respond in November, and then the government will be able to decide whether to send Gripen to Ukraine.

🔥 In Enerhodar, Ukrainian kamikaze drones attacked the "passport department" where the occupiers were having a festive feast, as well as a radio communication center located on the technical floor of a 14-story building. Russian officers, who were housed in two seized cottages on the outskirts of the city, also received a "gift".

In the morning, a Ural Airlines Airbus A320 passenger plane flying from Sochi to Omsk made an emergency landing in a field near Novosibirsk. Preliminarily, the hydraulic system failed.
Airbus previously said that it does not maintain contacts with Russian airlines. Russians are having difficulty maintaining flights as they find it difficult to replace missing components.

A military base in Kent, UK, has reduced the number of training sessions for Ukrainian troops by 30% after local residents complained about noise during live-fire exercises - The Times.
Lieutenant Colonel Mark Powell, the base commander, explained that he wants to maintain strong relations with local residents who complain that the explosions make their windows rattle and their houses vibrate.

The legendary Stephen King signed autographs wearing a cap with the inscription "Ukraine".
The famous writer has been condemning Putin's regime and helping Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale aggression.

The faces of ordinary Ukrainians after Russian missile and mortar strikes.

Something of a breakdown of the KIA:WIA totals

James Rands
AT james_rands

A quick note on this 1:3 ratio people keep on citing between killed in action and killed in action - it's a rule of thumb, which shouldn't really be used, because there are too many different factors. If we look at the KIA:WIA ratio in past wars where we have data, it varies a lot. [very slightly edited for clarity]

This article is worth a read: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2016/10/27/wounded-to-killed-ratios/

There are a lot of factors at play: Professionalism - well trained soldiers make fewer stupid mistakes and are better at rescuing and treating wounded colleagues. Medical chain - if you have medics with your units and functioning field hospitals, then...

fewer of your wounded die. Method of injury - a sniper kills most of the people he shoots; artillery usually wounds most. Overall fitness and welfare - fit healthy soldiers handle wounds and sickness better than unfit and underfed soldiers. Logistics and welfare matter.

Specifically in Ukraine, whilst Ukrainian forces have struggled with casevac and medical care they've invested in it a lot. I would guess they are around the 1:3 or 1:4 level we see typically in WW2. Interestingly, some of the reporting coming out of Kherson was closer to 1:8.

On the other hand Russia has exhibited abysmal regard for its wounded and there are independent reports of officers just shooting the badly wounded. Medics have been misappropriated for other tasks. Wagner Group's chief surgeon spent most of her time torturing prisoners,

trained doctors who have come up through the military college system have been misappropriated as rifle platoon commanders and female volunteer medics have been used by officers for less palatable tasks. Based on that I suspect their KIA:WIA ratio is more like 1:1.

Wagner Group's chief surgeon spent most of her time torturing prisoners,

There is something particularly sickening about the mere thought of this.

Yes and I suspect that long after this war finishes (whenever that is.....) we will see these criminals hunted down 'Mossad style'. Quite rightly.

Yes how very Dr Mengele of her 🤢

What sources do you have for this?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1701661412454502845 A monument to a Ukrainian soldier murdered by the Russians

The thread comes from James Rands on Twitter but the claims come from some months ago when Wagner was much more active in Ukraine. Looking it up, the veracity isn't certain actually.

A military base in Kent, UK, has reduced the number of training sessions for Ukrainian troops by 30% after local residents complained about noise during live-fire exercises - The Times.
Lieutenant Colonel Mark Powell, the base commander, explained that he wants to maintain strong relations with local residents who complain that the explosions make their windows rattle and their houses vibrate.

When summer training is conducted at West Point, the local newspapers announce it so that people don't call the police when they hear the artillery firing. It's fairly isolated though. West Point has about 16,000 acres of land to work with.

Brilliant response from U.K.'s Barbara Woodward Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UNSC to Russia’s representative Vasily Nebenzya after Russia requested a UN meeting to discuss the supply of weapons to Ukraine:

Russia was once again misusing the UN Security Council today.

Even worse, Russia proposed shameless to hold a monthly meeting of the UN Security Council on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and discuss their impact on the prospects for resolving the conflict.

According to Vasily Nebenzya, Russia convened a meeting in order to discuss how the "unrestrained pumping" of Ukraine with weapons from the West affects the prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.

"We suggest that the Council consider this topic almost every month. And each time there are new stories that deserve our attention, he said.

This comes ironically as Kim Jong-un arrived in Eastern Russia to talk about arms delivery to Russia.

x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1701704653677679045?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Sorry that was a bit garbled! In case the above post wasn't clear Barbara Woodwards response to Russia is embedded in this tweet!

x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1701704653677679045?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

It’s time Russia was kicked out of the UN. Also the thought of Putin and Kim John-un meeting to plot arms supply to russia is very unsettling.

It is, but NK has been vocally supportive for ages so the idea that that will now become material isn't so surprising. Listened to a podcast about this yesterday where the host said that the interesting thing is how the US are responding - basically using it to remind South Korea where there bread is buttered

Also, it won't be gratis. Kim will want something in return, probably a lot of money if not precious food resources

It's not nice to think of, but the optics also smack a bit of isolation too.

It's a bit toasty in Sevastopol this morning, apparently

What concerns me more is the idea that NK is essentially acting as a conduit for China in order to allow them to supply arms etc to Russia whilst avoiding the repercussions of sanctions.