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Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

981 replies

MagicFox · 20/08/2023 12:43

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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OP posts:
Thread gallery
341
DancesWithDucks · 10/09/2023 23:42

Personally I think they planned to take over Ukraine, then either go for Georgia or wait til Trump was re-elected and go for one of the lesser NATO countries.

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2023 00:18

DancesWithDucks · 10/09/2023 22:35

Thanks, @blueshoes

Donetsk airport ... that has to be a very high value location for both sides.

There is a little thread about this.

Andrew Perpetua AT AndrewPerpetua
Please don't talk about Ukraine getting closer to the airport if you don't know what Zenit is.

Replies naturally ask what Zenit is.

Andrew Perpetua AT AndrewPerpetua
A ukrainian bunker that they have continuously held that is right next to the airport....

Someone then questioned whether they'd kept it throughout.

Andrew Perpetua AT AndrewPerpetua
no, they never lost it, in fact there have been many videos of russia shelling it, and of their failed assaults where they lost entire columns of armored vehicles trying to assault it.

In other words the area by the airport has been grey contested land since the start of the word with the Ukrainians managing to maintain control of a nuclear bunker by the airport but not fully control of the area around it.

I'm guessing that taking full control of the area around the bunker is therefore significantly more important than the airport itself because Russia clearly can not have had control of the airport either.

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2023 00:23

MissConducUS · 10/09/2023 23:22

The Russians had plans to invade Eastern Europe after they annexed Ukraine. It's hard to tell how much of this was bluster vs. delusion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-general-admits-ukraine-just-a-stepping-stone-to-invade-europe/ar-AA1gtZQc?

So exactly what Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia said all along but the rest of NATO were extremely reluctant to believe.

All the way through this the rest of NATO have failed to take seriously the level of understanding that these countries had about Russia.

Which I think is the most depressing part of it all.

There was such a huge amount of arrogance by Western Europe and the US about it all.

I find it interesting how much Germany has seemingly come around to this realisation tbh.

Gothambutnotahamster · 11/09/2023 00:41

Completely agree @RedToothBrush - spent some time in Latvia at the end of last year and it was on everyone's minds (at least those i spoke to) about how they would be next if Ukraine fell.

Seychal · 11/09/2023 01:09

MissConducUS · 10/09/2023 23:22

The Russians had plans to invade Eastern Europe after they annexed Ukraine. It's hard to tell how much of this was bluster vs. delusion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-general-admits-ukraine-just-a-stepping-stone-to-invade-europe/ar-AA1gtZQc?

Russia's spending in 2021/22 was $86bn.

Europe's was in excess of $350bn. Then one can add in the US at just over 10 times that of Russia's. Then there is what Ukraine will be spending from now on and Canada adds another £28bn.

The population of Nato countries is approaching 1 billion. The population of Russia is 145m. The defence industries of Nato Countries spent close on $1.25 trillion in the year to March 2022. That is going to rise significantly in future and, dare I say it, the annual rise will be more than Russia's entire military budget for that year.

Russia is not going to go away and will remain joined to Nato states by a long border and an Arctic sea that is steadily more accessible. Russia will find away to rearm. It will be tenacious in doing so. I sincerely hope it was bluster. Then at best we are in for the long haul. At worst it is delusional thinking. That worries me more.

DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 07:11

Good grief Zenit must have seen some extraordinary battles. One of those little known things that comes out afterwards and turns out to be something of a legend maybe.

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2023 08:25

Article from 2015 about Zenit
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2015/9/15/holding-the-line-in-eastern-ukraine

It sounds like there are a couple of other forts in the area. (See map)

The thread continues and someone says what's this on the map in the red area then if that's Zenit.

That's Anthill is the reply. Another bunker/fort apparently.

Spike Spiegel AT spikspigl
Don't they have to cross the Anthill to get to the airport?

Andrew Perpetua AT AndrewPerpetua
anthill isnt even the southernmost position, there is also cuckoo

So it sounds like there are two more forts in the area between the front line and the airport - and these I presume to be held by Russia (though not explicitly said).

In another part of the twitter thread someone else talks about the 'fall of Republica Mist'

There is a BBC Russia article from 2015 which has a bunch of photos of Republica Mist' here:
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/multimedia_russian/2015/05/150513_ru_s_the_bridge_republic_picture_gallery

Republica Mist' by all accounts was a fort under a viaduct whereas Zenit was a fort in a nuclear bunker. Which rather complicates the front line in this particular area - it's a legacy of 2014. But this also highlights the issue of what might happen if Ukraine don't make a breakthrough before winter and Russia have that time to dig in.

But yes, sounds like a whole lot of stories there we just have no idea about. And I think it's worth noting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DdraigGoch · 11/09/2023 09:51

Seychal · 11/09/2023 01:09

Russia's spending in 2021/22 was $86bn.

Europe's was in excess of $350bn. Then one can add in the US at just over 10 times that of Russia's. Then there is what Ukraine will be spending from now on and Canada adds another £28bn.

The population of Nato countries is approaching 1 billion. The population of Russia is 145m. The defence industries of Nato Countries spent close on $1.25 trillion in the year to March 2022. That is going to rise significantly in future and, dare I say it, the annual rise will be more than Russia's entire military budget for that year.

Russia is not going to go away and will remain joined to Nato states by a long border and an Arctic sea that is steadily more accessible. Russia will find away to rearm. It will be tenacious in doing so. I sincerely hope it was bluster. Then at best we are in for the long haul. At worst it is delusional thinking. That worries me more.

They wouldn't have hit all in one go though. They'd have picked off smaller countries one-by-one, taking advantage of an isolationist US president while they salami-slice their way through.

Seychal · 11/09/2023 10:14

@DdraigGoch I think that option has long flown and is hypothetical at best. It may have been their aim, but it is totally unrealistic on two counts. Capacity - as has been proven they do not have it to take on Europe. Not reading the room - Nato has just got stronger by membership and now almost certainly by military spending and future arms mix. Russia has got it so wrong and I hope the delusion eventually turns into a cold hard reality that touches its people. This is going to be a long war. Attrition will hurt Russia and like a slow bleed will delay its rearmament. I do not think this outcome will be lost in the minds of those in the US or China who who seek to shape the world.

blueshoes · 11/09/2023 10:28

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10.
  • Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 10 that Ukrainian forces will continue counteroffensive operations into late 2023. Cold and wet weather will affect but not halt active combat, as it has done in the first 18 months of the war.
  • Russian military personnel continue to detail persistent problems hindering Russian operations along the frontline in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/-136 drone strikes targeting Kyiv Oblast on the night of September 9 to 10.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly regained some lost positions in some areas.
  • Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on September 10 that the Russian military has concentrated over 420,000 military personnel in occupied Ukraine, not including Rosgvardia (Russian national guard) and other military units and structures.
  • Russian occupation officials held the final day of voting for Russian regional elections in occupied territories on September 10, continuing efforts to coerce residents to vote and portray the elections as legitimate.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DdraigGoch · 11/09/2023 10:44

Seychal · 11/09/2023 10:14

@DdraigGoch I think that option has long flown and is hypothetical at best. It may have been their aim, but it is totally unrealistic on two counts. Capacity - as has been proven they do not have it to take on Europe. Not reading the room - Nato has just got stronger by membership and now almost certainly by military spending and future arms mix. Russia has got it so wrong and I hope the delusion eventually turns into a cold hard reality that touches its people. This is going to be a long war. Attrition will hurt Russia and like a slow bleed will delay its rearmament. I do not think this outcome will be lost in the minds of those in the US or China who who seek to shape the world.

Oh yes, it won't happen now. If Trump had won in 2020 though, things may have been different.

minsmum · 11/09/2023 13:25

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701208561911578851 Ukraine had regained control of oil rigs in the Black sea that Russia have controlled since 2015

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701208561911578851

TheABC · 11/09/2023 13:27

Russia has got it so wrong and I hope the delusion eventually turns into a cold hard reality that touches its people. This is going to be a long war. Attrition will hurt Russia and like a slow bleed will delay its rearmament. I do not think this outcome will be lost in the minds of those in the US or China who who seek to shape the world.

It's the ultimate in "fuck around and find out." I remember back in April (I think) last year hearing an American general saying that sanctions would not stop the war but they would degrade Russia's long-term capability and that was the point of them. I just wish Ukraine had got more weapons & sooner. They might've avoided Russia digging in and all the casualties around the Surivikin Line.

Very long-term, Russia's lost a lot of talent, it's population is shrinking and the world is past peak oil. It's going to slip further down the superpower rankings.

TheABC · 11/09/2023 13:31

A more measured view of the counter offensive from World Politics.

“The goal is to put Russia on its heels, bolster Western support and ensure that Ukraine is in the best possible position if and when negotiations to end the war commence. By those terms, the counteroffensive is clearly succeeding.”

https://twitter.com/WPReview/status/1701188907449155870?t=pXP0oraEaAh5jjkelUrB2Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/WPReview/status/1701188907449155870?s=19&t=pXP0oraEaAh5jjkelUrB2Q

Igotjelly · 11/09/2023 13:53

Very interesting latest episode of Ukraine the Latest, its a one off interview with General David Petraeus and they go into a lot of depth in the hour long discussion. One of his key takeaways is the fact its far too soon to judge the counteroffensive one way or the other and that he suspects that whilst people call it the 'summer' offensive its likely to rumble on throughout the seasons.

His view is clear that Putin doesn't yet look in the mirror and see a man that's made a catastrophic mistake and that this is an important thing that needs to happen.

He is also clear that he doesn't believe that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is at all likely.

Seychal · 11/09/2023 14:00

@TheABC I believe also at the back of the minds of people in The Pentagon is that wars provide a real environment in which to test and develop weapons for the future. Testing in the Nevada desert or the north east Atlantic is not the same as real conditions. If there is a short war, that opportunity is lost. I think this is a war in which arms developers have the time to test out drone warfare in particular. This is obvious a very cynical view, but then again..

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 11/09/2023 14:05

Would that be why they seemed not to want to give Ukraine any of the really modern stuff in case Russia gets hold of it?

MagicFox · 11/09/2023 14:28

The Economist have just published a 20 minute interview with Zelensky: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-intelligence-from-the-economist/id1449631195?i=1000627452954

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 14:41

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 11/09/2023 14:05

Would that be why they seemed not to want to give Ukraine any of the really modern stuff in case Russia gets hold of it?

That, and the escalation ... though honestly, that's an old worn-out fear by now imo.

@TheABC Very long-term, Russia's lost a lot of talent, it's population is shrinking and the world is past peak oil. It's going to slip further down the superpower rankings.

I think that breaking the grain deal won't soon be forgotten too. People in Africa will trade and work with Russia, but with less trust than before.

MissConducUS · 11/09/2023 14:46

Seychal · 11/09/2023 14:00

@TheABC I believe also at the back of the minds of people in The Pentagon is that wars provide a real environment in which to test and develop weapons for the future. Testing in the Nevada desert or the north east Atlantic is not the same as real conditions. If there is a short war, that opportunity is lost. I think this is a war in which arms developers have the time to test out drone warfare in particular. This is obvious a very cynical view, but then again..

Most American weapons in Ukraine saw a lot of real-world combat testing in Iraq and Afghanistan. The newest systems like JASSM, the F-35, and the latest version of the Abrams tank won't be given to Ukraine anytime in the foreseeable future as they won't take the chance of them being captured by the Russians. The Pentagon certainly won't be testing any next-generation kit there for the same reason.

I think the plan to use Ukraine as a stepping stone to attack other countries in Eastern Europe dates back to before February 2022, when they thought they'd take Ukraine in a few weeks and that their army was invincible. The fact that they're leaving their Nato borders undefended shows how deeply attrited their army is currently. Taking on Nato now would be suicidal.

DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 15:00

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Defense Ministry: Maliar said that in total, Ukrainian forces have now retaken 256.5 square kilometers of land in the south in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and a part of Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-liberates-4-8-square-kilometers-on-southern-front-in-last-week/

⚡️Bucharest demands end to Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/bucharest-demands-end-to-russian-attacks-after-drones-exploded-in-romanian-territory/ after finding drone debris on Romanian territory.

⚡️Military intelligence: Ukraine regains control https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-ukraine-regains-control-of-oil-platforms/ of oil rigs in Black Sea.
Ukraine has regained control of a set of oil drilling platforms in the Black Sea, Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) announced on Sept. 11.
The rigs had been occupied by Russia since 2015, following the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces turned the platforms into a military site, adding equipment like radar and helipads, according to HUR.
The multi-phase operation involved a battle between Ukrainian special forces on boats and a Russian SU-30 fighter jet, shown in a 13-minute video HUR released about the operation.

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates part of Opytne in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-liberates-part-of-opytne-in-donetsk-oblast/

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia wants to recruit https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-wants-to-recruit-420-000-contract-soldiers-in-2023/ 420,000 contract soldiers in 2023.

⚡️ WSJ: Kyiv expects https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-ukraine-may-use-f-16-fighter-jets-on-battlefield-already-this-winter/ to use F-16 fighter jets in combat by winter.
According to Kyiv's military leadership, this optimistic schedule could give Ukrainian troops a significant new advantage on the battlefield next year. (mind you the first-use date seems to shift regularly, by months)

⚡️ Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrives in Kyiv
https://kyivindependent.com/media-germanys-foreign-minister-annalena-baerbock-arrives-in-kyiv/ for her fourth visit since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, the German Foreign Ministry announced on Sept. 11.
The minister promised continued support for Ukraine on its path to EU membership but also insisted on further reforms, namely regarding the fight against corruption, Die Welt reported.

⚡️ Rheinmetall to refit, deliver 40 Marder armored vehicles to Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-to-send-40-marder-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine/T based on an order placed by the German government in August, the company announced on Sept. 11. This brings the total number of Marder vehicles to be supplied by Rheinmetall to Ukraine to 80, with the first 20 shipped in March and another batch of 20 ordered in June, which are currently being overhauled and delivered, the company said.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced on Sept. 10 that Ukraine and Sweden plan to jointly produce 1,000 CV-90 combat vehicles.https://kyivindependent.com/maliar-ukraine-and-sweden-aim-jointly-produce-1-000-combat-vehicles/

⚡️ Lula: Brazil's judiciary to decide on Putin's arrest at G20 summit.
https://kyivindependent.com/brazilian-president-brazils-judiciary-to-decide-on-putins-arrest-at-g20-summit/
Lula earlier said that the Russian president would not be detained if he attended the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro next year.

⚡️NYT: US-based arms dealer https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-u-s-based-arms-dealer-makes-fortune-on-ukraines-war-with-help-of-ukrainian-sergeant/* makes fortune on Ukraine’s war. *
The U.S. Department of Defense has paid about $1 billion to an arms dealer who was once indicted for allegedly bribing foreign officials and has built a $200 million side business selling ammunition directly to Ukraine, the investigation published by the New York Times revealed.

⚡️Media: Russia investing in military bases along Finnish border https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-news-russia-investing-in-military-bases-along-finnish-border/
Russia has begun stocking its military bases on the Finnish border, according to satellite images posted by Finnish publication Yle. The images show new warehouses to store and service military vehicles and equipment going up at the military depot in Petrozavodsk and the Alakurtti military base

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of over 31,600 Russian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-31-600-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ killed in Ukraine.
Through open source research, Mediazona, a Russian independent media outlet, together with BBC Russia, confirmed the names of 31,665 Russian soldiers who had been killed in the past 18 months of the full-scale war

The Council of Europe issued a statement on Sept. 10 denouncing the sham "elections" that Russia held in the occupied parts of Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/council-of-europe-denounces-russias-sham-elections-in-occupied-parts-of-ukraine/ [We invade you, take your men, rape you, torture you, kill you, deport you, steal from you, and you still have to vote for us to show us how much you enjoy it]

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 11
■ Engagements slightly below average,air superiority
■ Troop & equipment losses below average
■ Double-digit drone, vehicle, artillery & APV losses
■ x3 air defence systems
■ Oryx: +24, +10- Ru:Ukr ratios unchanged

Deary me, less than 30 artillery blown up. They're slacking.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 15:22

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Kim Jong Un went to Russia to meet with Putin, — Bloomberg.
Journalists assume that the meeting of the leaders of the DPRK and the Russian Federation in Vladivostok, which will discuss the supply of weapons to continue the war against Ukraine, will take place on September 13.

Russian Gazprom will increase the gas discount for China to 50%, — Reuters

Biden may soon allow the supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, — mass media

🇺🇳 UN special rapporteur Alice Gill said that Ukraine is treating Russian prisoners of war with respect. They are housed in barracks-type buildings, provided with bedding, clothing, hygiene products, and food.

🇺🇳 UN Special Rapporteur on Torture: Russian military torture against Ukrainians is a state policy
"This is not random, isolated behavior. It is organized as part of a state policy of intimidation, instilling fear, or punishment for the purpose of obtaining information or confessions," said Edwards.

More info on the oil rigs:
❗️Ukraine has successfully regained control of the Boyko Towers which are offshore drilling platforms used for oil and gas production near the coast of Crimea in the Black Sea. This achievement has been reported by the Main Directorate of Intelligence.
The operation to reclaim the Boyko Towers was a distinctive and well-executed effort carried out by units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence. Notably, they regained control over the Petro Godovalets and Ukraina drilling platforms, as well as the Tavrida and Syvash drilling platforms.
During the operation, special forces were able to seize valuable assets, including a stockpile of unguided aerial missiles (NAR type) used in helicopters and the Neva radar system, which has the capability to track ship movements in the Black Sea. [my goodness, there's another story that is waiting to be told after the war!]

Polish border guards reported an attack by people wearing masks and "Belarusian uniforms"
On the Belarusian side of the border, 7 people threw stones at border guards. It is reported that the attackers had slingshots and flashlights with which they blinded the patrolmen. No damage was done.

Ukrainian pilots can start using the F-16 in combat as early as February 2024 [more info]
The first group of less than 10 is expected to begin training at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona. They are the first to switch to the F-16. At the same time, dozens of Ukrainian pilots will start learning English at the Lakeland Air Base in San Antonio.
The American side is more restrained in its forecasts. The publication writes that the F-16 requires approximately 16 hours of maintenance on the ground for every hour the machine is in the air. Training technicians can be more difficult than training pilots, the WSJ notes.

Russian oppositionists may be included in a multilateral prisoner exchange between the West and Russia, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing officials from several Western countries.
According to sources, Alexei Navalny may be among them.

Ukraine has developed a new attack drone KH-S7, — The Defense Forces of the South
The drone is capable of carrying a payload weighing 1 kg at a distance of up to 7 km and is designed to hit moving and stationary ground targets.

The Prime Minister of Israel asks the Hasids not to go to Uman to celebrate Rosh Hashanah.

DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 15:33

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russian Colonel-General Andrey Mordvichev says the war against Ukraine is only a "stepping stone" and that Russia will wage war against other countries in Eastern Europe

The Ukrainian flag in the sky helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces take control of part of Opytne. "The occupiers revealed their positions by opening fire on the huge flag that Ukrainian volunteers launched into the sky from Avdiivka yesterday," said the head of the Avdiivka Military Administration.

US Secretary of State Blinken defended the G20 leaders' declaration on Russia's war against Ukraine, over which Kyiv expressed disappointment.
"The G20 countries in this statement stood up for the importance of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and that's very clear," Blinken said.
US President Biden also said that there was agreement among the summit participants on establishing a just peace in Ukraine.

If Vladimir Putin wins a new six-year mandate, he will be in power longer than Joseph Stalin (reigned 1924 - 1953) - Bloomberg
Although Putin has not yet announced whether he will run for re-election, he is constitutionally eligible for two more terms, which would keep him in power until he is 83 years old.

The number of Russian soldiers willing to surrender to Ukraine has increased by 70% [in one particular day] after the successful special operation "Synytsa" of the Ukrainian special services, during which Russian pilot Maksym Kuzminov drove an Mi-8 helicopter to Ukraine - representative of the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate Andriy Yuso

⚡️⚡️⚡️Ukraine regains control of the so-called "Boyko towers" - DIU

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 11/09/2023 16:13

Some figures

Ukrainian Front
AT front_ukrainian

TheRussian Federation has concentrated more than 420,000 soldiers in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, - the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

It looks like this:

420,000 personnel.
2260 tanks (15-20% T-54/62 tanks);
5260 combat armored vehicles;
3050 artillery systems;
920 MLRS;
46 operationally tactical missile complexes;
360 planes;
320 helicopters;
64 ships/boats;
5 submarines.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/09/2023 18:40

Piece in the Telegraph about the crime wave now pardoned criminals recruited by Wagner are returning home.
I have to say I would have more sympathy for the russian victims (and their family & friends) of Wagner fighters if I were sure they hadn't been cheering on this scum whilst they were raping, torturing and murdering in Ukraine:

Russians forced to live alongside murderers as Wagner ex-convicts return home

Replenishment of Putin’s forces by recruitment from prisons means criminals are now free, with many suspected of new offences

When Anya Pekareva heard that an 85-year-old woman had been murdered in Vyatskiye Polyany, a small town over 500 miles from Moscow that is home to some of her relatives, she thought it an odd coincidence.
Two days later, her parents told her that the woman was her grandmother, who had been murdered by an ex-convict who returned home to the village after fighting in Ukraine with the notorious Wagner mercenary groupp_.
Ms Peskareva, a 36-year-old nurse from St Petersburg, reacted to the news so strongly that her parents feared she would stage a protest against the war, risking arrest and criminal charges.
“After Grandma’s killing, I just drew the line with friends. I said: ‘Everyone who supports the war is guilty of my Grandma’s murder’,” she told The Telegraph.
The murder of Yulia Buiskikh in March was the first of many carried out by ex-convict fighters returning home to Russia. “It was the first case of its kind. But now I’m tired of reposting news about other cases,” said Ms Pekareva.
Across the country, Russians are now living with convicted murderers and rapists in their midsts – a disastrous consequence of Vladimir Putin’s decision to replenish his forces by recruiting fighters from prisonss_.

Four days before Ms Pekareva’s grandmother was killed, local television ran a six-minute news bulletin saying that a local man, previously sentenced to 14 years for killing another woman, had returned home to the nearby village of Novy Burets and “a quiet life”.
The villagers, mostly elderly women wrapped in shawls and winter coats, packed a local community centre at which the police chief tried to address their concerns.
The young man made his presence known in the village early on, staggering through the streets with “a bottle of beer in one hand, a pitchfork in another” and yelling: “I’m going to kill you all.”
A local farmer said milkmaids were too scared to go to work for pre-dawn shifts.
In a surprisingly candid speech, Vadim Varankin, the local police chief, told the villagers that Ivan Rossomakhin was on leave from the Wagner group, which was then fighting in the bloody siege of Bakhmutt_.
Mr Varankin said the mercenary fighter had promised to leave the village as soon as he was allowed out of detention for smashing up a car.
“I’m not going to put up with him here until May. We have agreed that on Tuesday we put him on the train and that I will never set eyes on him here ever again,” he said.
But instead of boarding the train out on Tuesday, Rossomakhin ended up in the nearby town of Vyatskiye Polyany.
Ms Pekareva remembers her grandmother as a kind and generous woman who never even bothered to lock her front door.
She lived alone, and sometimes offered bed and breakfast to people, often high school pupils, who got stuck in Vyatskiye Polyany during snowstorms. Rossomakhin, her killer, was one of those to whom she provided shelter.
Tens of thousands of Russian convicts first recruited by Wagnerr_ last summer typically signed six-month contracts, meaning thousands of criminals were let loose as of this spring.
When the reports about Buiskikh’s murder first surfaced, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former Wagner bosss_, sought to defend his recruitment drive as he said the pardoned convicts hardly ever commited crimes again.
He condemned Buiskikh’s murder, saying of his former fighter: “It is very bad that he committed a crime.”

Police in Russia do not keep statistics on crimes carried out by former Wagner fighters, but journalists across Russia have been reporting grisly murders almost every week since their contracts began to expire.
Russian fighters who returned from Ukraine are suspected of killing at least 17 people and are accused of at least four rapes this year, according to a tally of openly available sources.
In the most recent case, five men and one woman died in a mass murder in a picturesque village close to the Russian border with Finland last month.
Their suspected killers, two friends and former cellmates in their late 30s who had previous convictions for multiple robberies and drug dealing, had just finished their service in two mercenary groups including Wagner.
There seems to be little in the way of a pattern to the killings perpetrated by Russia’s convict mercenaries, who in some cases have appeared to target people at random.
Kirill Chubko, a 37-year-old event entertainer, and his 19-year-old assistant Tatyana Mostyko were driving back from a party to Ust-Labinsk in Russia’s south at the end of April when they got a flat tyre.
Chubko called his wife to say not to worry and to go to sleep while they waited for a car repair man to show up. Several days later, their bodies were found in a nearby forest.
Police have traced the murder to three men. One of them had been sentenced to 18 years for armed robberies on highways before being recruited by Wagner.
Daria Chubko-Andreyeva, Kirill’s wife, who still keeps a photo of herself and their toddler as a profile picture on social media, told The Telegraph she has been struggling to get any details about the probe from investigators.
Like Buiskikh’s granddaughter, Ms Chubko-Andreyeva is looking to connect with other victims of the Wagner mercenaries on Russian soil.
She has also recently launched an online petition, urging the court to pass a life sentence for her husband’s murderers. “I’m learning how to live again,” she said.
Other Russian families face the prospect of coming face to face with the murderers of their loved ones.
One day in June, Oksana Pekhteleva’s friend texted her a photograph of a man, grinning for the camera, dressed in sand-coloured military fatigues and a helmet. He was Vlad Kanyus, the man who brutally murdered her daughter Vera three years ago.

In the town of Kemerovo, more than 2,000 miles north of Moscow, rumours spread quickly that Kanyus, who was sentenced a year earlier to 17 years in a high-security prison for beating his 23-year-old ex-girlfriend to death, was now a free man.
The prison colony to which he had been sent refused to communicate with his victim’s family, citing confidentiality rules, and Russia’s defence ministry denied he was among their soldiers.
The only proof that he had been allowed out of prison came from a letter from bailiffs, who told the family they gave up on trying to collect court-ordered damages from the defendant due to his “departure to the war zone”.
“Vera’s mother is really worried. She’s terrified. Can you imagine what this man did to her daughter?” said Vladimir Pekhtelev, Vera’s uncle
Mr Pekhtelev, who does not follow the news and had no idea there are other families in similar circumstances in Russia, said the family is devastated that justice in their case did not prevail.
“He was killing her for three hours and now he wants to get off scot free? This is unfair. We just want justice, that’s it,” he said.
The long-term effect of the mass pardons of convicts who fought for Wagner on crime rates in Russia is yet not clear.
The Soviet Union faced a somewhat similar predicament at the end of the Second World War when thousands of convicts were released after fighting the Nazis. The crime wave eventually died down when many of the ex-convicts ended up back in prison.
The same could happen in Russia again, according to Vladimir Kudryavtsev, a criminologist at Florida State University.
“We do not have enough data to know whether they commit those crimes because they have experienced trauma during an armed conflict or whether this is a middle-of-the-road repeat offence that would have happened anyway,” he told The Telegraph.
“But we do know that countries that went through armed conflicts often face a surge in violence.”

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