Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30.
• Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts.
• Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts.
• Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30.
• The Kremlin has reportedly undertaken several efforts to silence or confuse reports about Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral, which likely indicates that the Kremlin remains worried about Prigozhin’s appeal in Russia and among Wagner forces even after his death.
• Some Russian officials may be probing the views of milbloggers about Prigozhin and his death to identify and censor Russian ultranationalists not clearly connected with Prigozhin or Wagner.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 30 in continued attempts to distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 30 and reportedly advanced.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along at least two sectors of the front on August 30 and advanced near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group claimed that its partisans successfully detonated an explosive at the campaign headquarters of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on August 29.

But then what do we know, King Boris has spoken.....

Boris Johnson@BorisJohnson
Sad to see departure of my friend Ben Wallace. A fine Defence Secretary who got so many calls right - especially on Ukraine. Grant Shapps is an excellent choice to succeed him.

Tim Hogan AT timinhonolulu
1. Ukraine continued drone attacks on strategic targets deep in Russian territory and confirmed more damaged IL-76 strategic lift aircraft at the Pskov air base from Tuesday's bold attacks than had previously been reported.

2. Russian propagandist/1980 Soviet Olympic Hockey Team cosplayer Vladimir Solovyov had hinted there were much more than the one strategic airlift plane damaged, contradicting Kremlin official reports. It appears he was right. Several were destroyed and even more damaged.

3. Last night, Ukrainian drones attacked a communications tower in the Bryansk region and other targets in Oryol. But the offensive in the Zaporizhia front is the big news. Ukraine has advanced on Verbove and appears to be in a position to reach and possibly

4. breach Russia's second and strongest line of fortifications. Russian counterattacks are expected today but if Ukraine can hold the seized Russian positions, then the stage may be set for the entire Russian line to be breached. NASA Firms indicate that the Russian defenders

5. are likely under a heavy Ukrainian artillery fire in southern part of Verbove. In comparison, few fires are evident in Ukrainian forward positions. The map is starting to show Russian forces concentrated in areas of Ukrainians attacks leaving large vacant gaps on the flanks.

There is a certain amount of debate going on, on twitter about who is blasting who - have the Ukrainians taken more ground than thought and are being bombarded by Russians or are the Ukrainians hitting the Russians hard?

Noise suggests that Ukraine are now occupying a small section of the Surovikin line just outside Verbove, and have held it and so far they have conducted infantry raids on foot further in. Russian channels suggest fear of a collapse rather than that having happened at this point.

It looks increasingly likely that the primary Ukrainian objective is a hill just south of Verbove dubbed Hill166. If they take this high ground they would have covering fire over Verbove. One of the issues is that to move further and breach properly the Ukrainians have to fight uphill as the defensive line uses the higher ground to its advantage. Taking Hill166 would be key - and allow a major breach via Verbove which is on lower ground and then outflank Russian positions on the higher ground behind the Surovikin line.

One suggestion I've seen is that they also plan to actually use the trenches of the defensive line, they've now overrun, and move laterally along them. It makes sense as it would offer a certain amount of protection rather than being out in the open. There were images of Ukrainians digging in, into former Russian positions yesterday.

If the tweet thread above is correct, it would be encouraging - Ukrainian forces not being hit by fire would be consistent with a sudden movement of Ukrainian troops (harder to move if under fire), would probably suggest less casualties, suggest a certain amount of disarray from the the defenders and concerntrated Russian forces meaning bigger targets and more attrition going on. Large vacant gaps on the flanks accompanying that would also indicate opportunity may be possible elsewhere on the line.

Several military tweeter were pointing out yesterday that minefields cease to be as much of an issue if you aren't under fire. Under fire they are much more problematic and a real obstacle but without them being observed and targeted it's possible to make relatively short work of them with the right equipment. And the Ukrainians having figured out how to use thermal imaging to navigate/destroy the minefields makes that particularly true.

If the Ukrainians have the Russians pinned down and aren't getting so much fire themselves that opens up time to do exactly that.

I will be keeping a close eye on twitter noise over the next few days to see if anything significant develops. It may do, it may not do. But there is a lot more optimism than I've seen in a long while.

It's also worth pointing out that there's been a quiet establishment of more bridgeheads in Kherson in the last few days too, that haven't been talked about as much due to the developments around Robotyne.

Is there anything that idiot hasn't wrecked?

But Shapps? Please no. Cardboard would do a better job, on current showing.

He was an utter lightweight and pretty much useless/disinterested in lobbying the Treasury and others on behalf of the UK airline industry when Secretary of State for Transport...reminds me a bit of Matt Hancock, all image and self promotion....not much else.

He's also an complete hypocrite - during his time as SoS AFAIK he never attempted to close the loophole that allowed him to register his own UK based private aircraft with US authorities rather than the UK CAA. Something that is very handy for avoiding the CAAs astronomic fees and also some UK regulatory oversight.

It's true that he is not alone in doing that (see the Emiliano Sala footballer case) but that means Shapps was avoiding paying fees and the regulatory attention of one of the Authorities he was supposed to be responsible for.......

..and breath.....I promise to get off the fence and tell you what I really think about him later.

Don't hold back @notimagain :D

I'm sure he'll soon make a statement saying something like he "didn't realise how big Ukraine was" or "how important the Black Sea access is for Ukraine"

Or even something like he didn't realise how long the borders were between Ukraine and Russia and/or the borders between Ukraine and other European countries

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ NGO: EU imports record volumes of LNG from Russia in 2023.
https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-eu-imports-record-volumes-of-lng-from-russia-in-2023/ the EU is set to import a record volume of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Russia this year, with Belgium and Spain in the lead, the Global Witness reported on Aug. 30.
The bloc's member states spent almost 5.3 billion euros ($5.8 billion) to buy 22 million cubic meters of LNG in the first seven months of 2023 despite the EU's goal to cut off Russian fuels by 2027, the organization said with reference to an industry analytics company Kpler.

⚡️ Media: 6 Ukrainian pilots killed in crashed helicopters in Donetsk Oblast.
https://kyivindependent.com/media-6-ukrainian-pilots-die-in-helicopter-crash-in-donetsk-oblast/ Six Ukrainian pilots died when two helicopters crashed in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast on Aug. 29 under unknown circumstances, Ukrainska Pravda (UP) reported on Aug. 30, citing its sources. [ouch, ouch, ouch, ouch :( ]

⚡️Media: Defense Minister likely to be replaced https://kyivindependent.com/media-defense-minister-likely-to-be-replaced/
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov is likely to soon be dismissed following a procurement scandal in the ministry, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Aug. 31, citing government sources.
His potential replacement is Rustem Umerov, the chairman of the State Property Fund of Ukraine

⚡️Kuleba in Spain for meeting of EU foreign ministers https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-in-spain-for-meeting-of-eu-foreign-affairs-ministers/ Kuleba met with his Spanish counterpart Jose Manuel Albares in Toledo. The two discussed opening Ukraine's EU accession talks and expanding Spain's military aid to Ukraine.

⚡️ White House: Russia, North Korea talks on arms supplies move forward.
https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-russia-north-korea-talks-on-arms-supplies-move-forward/ The U.S. is concerned that the negotiations between Russia and North Korea on arms supplies are actively advancing, Reuters reported on Aug. 30, citing National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Russian airbases suffered at least nine strikes, leading to damage or destruction of at least 24 military aircraft in Russia, Belarus, and occupied Crimea, the Russian independent news outlet Verstka reported on Aug. 30.

⚡️Germany delivers https://kyivindependent.com/germany-provides-ukraine-with-10-leopard-1-tanks-in-latest-package/ 10 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine in latest military aid package.

Russian cargo ships turn off their signals and mix stolen grain with non-stolen to obfuscate its origins, according to an investigation by Bellingcat in collaboration with American outlet Scripps News media. https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-defense-ministry-at-center-of-procurement-scandal-once-again/

⚡️RFE/RL: Indian businesses come https://kyivindependent.com/indian-businesses-come-under-sanctions-for-the-first-time-due-to-war-in-ukraine/ under sanctions for the first time due to war in Ukraine.
The Indian government has asked the United States to release $26 million belonging to Indian diamond companies after these assets were frozen due to alleged trading ties with a sanctioned Russian diamond company, ALROSA, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Aug. 30.

⚡️https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-does-not-plan-to-continue-term-after-this-year/
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN in an interview on Aug. 30 that he would not continue to serve as Secretary General of NATO after his extended term ends in October 2024.

⚡️ Moscow court sentences Ukrainian citizen to 12 years's prison for preparing alleged 'sabotage'. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-court-sentences-ukrainian-citizen-to-12-years-allegedly-for-preparing-sabotage/

⚡️ Zelensky announces review of military medicals https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-review-decisions-on-unfitness-for-military-service-made-by-medical-commissions/ after corruption revelations.
In light of corruption uncovered among the military medical commissions in Ukraine, the authorities will examine the decisions on fitness for military service made since the start of the full-scale invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Aug. 30.

⚡️ Ukraine, Norway agree on visa-free freight transport.
and Norway have signed an agreement on visa-free freight transport, allowing goods carriers to travel between the two countries without permits, the Infrastructure Ministry of Ukraine announced on Aug. 30. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-norway-agree-on-visa-free-freight-transport/

The state company overseeing Ukraine's maritime transport signed a memorandum with the U.S. ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans to cooperate in the planning, development, construction, administration, operation, and maintenance of Ukrainian port infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/government-agency-us-to-help-restore-ukraines-maritime-infrastructure/

Yesterday's effort show in the Russian losses. - 31 artillery and 26 cruise missiles plus the rest and over 600 soldiers dead.

Aarrgh arrgghh arrrggghh.... That made me cringe it's so accurate.

Shapps is beyond parody.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1697187273626759335 joke from the Albanian prime minister

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The USA is transferring 50 F-35 nuclear bombers to Europe, — The Telegraph
The publication reports that two squadrons of stealth aircraft will arrive in the UK this year at the US Air Force leased base in Lakenheath, Suffolk.

Ukraine received another package of military aid from Germany. It included:

— 10 Leopard1 A5 tanks.
— 1 TRML-4D radar.
— 16 Vector reconnaissance drones.
— 4 8x8 HX81 tractors and 4 semi-trailers.
— 13 million ammunition.
— field hospital.

🛫 Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported that some Ukrainian pilots have already successfully completed training in Denmark and can start flight training.

Security guarantees for Ukraine may be issued as early as next year, — WSJ
The US and European allies are developing security guarantees for Ukraine, but the conclusion of such agreements may not end until 2024.
According to sources, only the USA and Great Britain have started negotiations
Also, according to the publication, Europe fears that in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections, the USA will reduce the amount of funds allocated to Ukraine.

The British defense company BAE Systems opened an office in Ukraine. L119 howitzers of 105 mm caliber will be manufactured here.
BAE Systems products are already familiar to the Ukrainian military: artillery M777 and L119, self-propelled guns M109, BMP CV-90 and Bradley, and Challenger tanks.
🇩🇪 German AfD politician Martin Küne resigns after drawing swastikas and writing slurs on Ukrainian cars in Baden-Baden, Spiegel reports.

❗️ British Energy Minister Grant Shapps headed the Ministry of Defense.

The USA is transferring 50 F-35 nuclear bombers to Europe, — The Telegraph
The publication reports that two squadrons of stealth aircraft will arrive in the UK this year at the US Air Force leased base in Lakenheath, Suffolk.

Kind of interesting emphasis there by the Telegraph, most people regard it as very much a multi-role Low Observable aircraft and I I think currently it has no nuclear capability but there's an upgrade on the way to allow carriage of such (the B61 weapon).

There seems to be a bit of whipping up of concern/interest in US bases and US nukes on UK soil some in parts of the MSM...it's not something that's exactly new or something that hasn't happened before.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/29/surety-mission-50m-airbase-project-could-pave-way-for-uk-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons

Cardboard is apparently really good for making drones, could we perhaps try to make a drone out of Shapps?

Funny to think ones old milk carton could end up blowing up a Russian transport plane :-D

♻️ matters! :-)

He's already a drone.

Yes sir, whatever you say sir...

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️❗️Zelensky said that Ukraine had successfully hit an enemy target with a long-range weapon of its own production. It hit at a distance of more than 700 kilometers. He did not provide any details.

🌾 In 2022, Russia stole and exported almost 6 million tons of grain from the occupied territories of Ukraine, according to a US report.
The stolen grain was transported by cargo ships to the ports of Syria, Israel, Iran, Georgia, and Lebanon. However, the US is not sure whether the buyers of the Russian cargo knew about the Ukrainian origin of the grain.

✈️ Ukraine needs at least 160 fighter jets to prevent Russia from dominating the air, Zelensky says.
The first fighter jets will appear in Ukraine early next year.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili wanted to come to Ukraine on Independence Day, but the government did not allow her to.

Western media reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly suffered 70,000 casualties are exaggerated and untrue, according to National Security and Defense Council Secretary Danilov.

Drones attacked Russia and Crimea more than 190 times this year - BBC News.

Glen Kyle AT glenjkyle
FIRMS detected fires in Verbove today show a notable shift east. It's likely that this is Ukrainian shelling targeting Russian positions in the village. Eastern Verbove has been struck previously so it doesn't necessarily mean anything but it could suggest a shifting frontline.

Otherwise not much news yet. One Russian channel now apparently suggesting the Ukrainians have decided to go for the supply road to the south of Verbove rather than the town itself. That might tie with speculation about Hill166 too though.

Michael MacKay AT mhmck
Starting August 29th, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported "unsuccessful offensive actions" by Russian occupation forces in the Verbove area. They also noted enemy airstrikes. It's reasonable to call Verbove "contested" rather than "Russian-controlled."

ZMiST AT ZMiST_Ua
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the liberation of the Robotyne, the Defence Forces succeeded in the directions of Novodanylivka-Novoprokopivka and Mala Tokmachka-Verbove and are consolidating in the achieved positions.

👀

Dutch thread trnslated to english:

JoVer AT ByJoVer
Ukraine seems to be increasingly taking the initiative in the war and is increasingly hitting targets deep in RU and in Crimea. In addition to the obvious military targets, UA also focuses on the electricity network. Why? Time for some research 1/18

Since 2014, energy has played a crucial role in the war. In 2014 and 2015, Russia tried to disrupt Ukraine's electricity grid with the BlackEnergy cyber attacks 2/18

Also at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, taking control of Ukraine's energy supply was a crucial factor in the strategy of the Three Day Special Military Operation SMO - which failed 3/18

As winter approaches in 2022, Russia has fired hundreds of drones and missiles at distribution stations across Ukraine to bring the country to its knees in the cold. This also failed 4/18

It seems that now that Ukraine is taking over the initiative, they are also partly shifting attention to vital Russian infrastructure, especially in Crimea. Is it payback, or is there more to it. In this thread I dive further into the infrastructure in Crimea 5/18

Explosions were reported near Feodosija in southern Crimea. That's not the first time. Also in November 2022, the distribution station at Feodosija was targeted 6/18

In April 2023: “A missile launched from Ukraine was shot down over Feodosia,” Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian head of Crimea's administration, said on Telegram. Bron: Wall Street Journal 7/18

Feodosia is not the only target, the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant was also previously targeted, in November 2022 8/18

The electricity grid in Crimea consists of 220KV high voltage cables. The grid is connected via a submarine cable to the Russian mainland and on the other side with a 220KV line at the Nova Kakhova HPP 9/18

Feodosia is interesting because it is a hub of high voltage power lines, especially towards Russia itself. 10/18

After the last attack on Feodosija (o. a. by AT BruckenRuski) also reported power failures in Russia itself. The power grid must be in balance, if something fails somewhere, the fuse can blow somewhere else 11/18

The fuses can blow in Russia because the sea cable through the Kerch Strait can deliver about 850 MW per day. 12/18

So is Ukraine's intention to cut power in Russia or in Crimea? I think breakdowns in Russia are a welcome bonus for Ukraine, especially on a psychological level. 13/18

Turning off the power supply in Crimea does not seem to me to be the main goal, but more on that later. Ukraine has the most strategic interest in knocking out Russian logistics. For example, the electric railway from Sevastopol to Melitopol 14/18

Nevertheless, it may be interesting for the near future to take a closer look at the energy supply of Crimea. At the time of the annexation in 2014, Crimea was mainly dependent on Ukraine. In 2023, the situation is fundamentally different. 15/18

In 2014 Crimea consumed about 900MW per day. It itself produced around 300MW and “imported” the rest via the high-voltage lines to Nova Kakhova HPP and Zaporizhia NPP. In 2015, UA already sabotaged this pipeline. 16/18

In 2023, Crimea produces approximately 1200MW and “imports” approximately 850MW via the Kerch cable from Russia. The bulk of production comes from the new plants at Simferopol and Sevastopol. 17/18

In 2014 De Krim itself produced about 300M. 100MW of this has now been decommissioned. The Saskaya CHP supplies power to the occupied territories in Kherson and the Melitopol region 18/18

God forbid the Ukrainians need any ferries…

I can't bear to talk about the Ben Wallace situation - I'm aghast, honestly

Shows how seriously Sunak takes defence

Our (and Ukraines) best hope is Shapps continues to talk confident bull on This Morning and doesn't try to actually influence policy else we'll be buying tanks for Ukraine made by a mate of his with an ice cream factory

@Surplus2requirements that made me laugh 🍦

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1697333688441160065 gentle reminder from defence of Ukraine