Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian Grain Association: Harvest forecast up by 7.8 million tons https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-grain-association-harvest-forecast-up-by-7-8-million-tons/
According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), "favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields" have pushed up forecasts for Ukraine's harvest this year to 76.8 million tons.

⚡️White House: Russia seeks to buy more munitions https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-russia-seeks-to-buy-more-ammunition-from-north-korea/ from North Korea.

⚡️EU expands sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/eu-expands-sanctions-against-belarus/ against Belarus.

⚡️Russia claims Ukraine attacks Crimea, Novorossiysk (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-ukraine-attacked-naval-base-crimea/) naval base.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Aug. 4 that 13 Ukrainian drones were shot down in Crimea overnight, and two unmanned surface vessels were destroyed while attacking a naval base in Russia's Novorossiysk.
According to the ministry, Ukraine launched drones against targets on the territory of the occupied peninsula. Ten were shot down by air defense and three were eliminated through electronic warfare, Russia claimed.

⚡️Media: Russian Black Sea https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-novorossiysk/ vessel damaged in SBU operation.
A Russian landing craft stationed in Novorossiysk was damaged by a surface drone in a joint operation between the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy, CNN and several Ukrainian media reported on Aug. 4, citing unnamed sources in the SBU.
A Ukrainian surface drone loaded with 450 kilograms of explosives reportedly rammed into the Russian Ropucha-class landing vessel "Olenegorskiy Gornyak," causing serious damage.

⚡️Romania investigating https://kyivindependent.com/romania-investigating-reports-of-russian-drone-debris-falling-on-its-territory/reports of Russian drone debris falling on its territory.

Russian troops barrage https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-barrage-nikopol-with-heavy-artillery/ Nikopol with heavy artillery.

⚡️Lithuanian President, Polish PM meet to discuss Wagner threat. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-president-polish-pm-meet-to-discuss-wagner-threat/

⚡️ISW: Russia hopes https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-hopes-to-attract-recruits-without-resorting-to-forced-mobilization/ to attract recruits without resorting to forced mobilization. To that end, on Aug. 3, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree providing state life and health insurance to all citizens who volunteer for combat operations in Ukraine.

Endless Russian assaults near Kreminna test Ukraine’s defenses
kyivindependent.com/endless-russian-assaults-near-kreminna-test-ukraines-defenses/

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Ukraine to spend $48 billion https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-ukraine-attacked-naval-base-crimea/ on armed forces in 2023.
Shmyhal added that for humanitarian and social payments, Kyiv received assistance from international partners. Ukraine has obtained $28 billion of such funds this year and $31 billion in 2022
"This is more than the peacetime's budget revenue," said Shmyhal, referring to the 2021 budget. According to the prime minister, Ukraine's budget revenue in 2021 was around $48 billion.

⚡️Reuters: Russia doubles defense https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/21881** spending plan for 2023. [shouldn't that be 'aggression spending plan'?] to more than $100 billion, which makes up one-third of all public expenditures, Reuters reported on Aug. 4.
In the first half of 2023, Russian defense spending amounted to 5.59 trillion rubles ($59 billion), which was 37.3% of a total of 14.97 trillion rubles ($156 billion) spent by the state in that period, Reuters said.

⚡️Russian media: Prigozhin-linked firms https://kyivindependent.com/media-prigozhin-linked-firms-signed-government-contracts-after-wagner-rebellion/ receive state contracts after Wagner rebellion.
Companies associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin signed state contracts worth at least 2 billion rubles ($21 million) within a month after his Wagner Group rebellion, the Russian independent outlet Agentstvo reported on Aug. 3.

The continued financial support for Prigozhin-connected firms could indicate that Moscow keeps financing the Wagner Group's activities in Africa, the journalists said.[wont be long before he's rehabilitated, while the soldiers who are literally weoponless and hungry on the front lines get sent to the open air pits for protesting]

⚡️Businessman charged https://kyivindependent.com/nabu-zhevago-suspected-of-bribing-supreme-court/ with bribing Supreme Court head.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) reported on Aug. 3 that Ukrainian businessman Kostyantyn Zhevago had been charged with bribing Vsevolod Kniazev, former head of the Supreme Court. Kniaziev was charged with corruption on May 16.

⚡️Emergency service officials charged over helicopter crash https://kyivindependent.com/state-emergency-workers-charged-over-death-of-interior-minister/ that killed interior minister.

Ukraine identified over 232,000 people who allegedly took part in Russia's war, including Moscow's army personnel, and local collaborators, the Interior Ministry reported on Aug. 3.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Moscow for withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, emphasizing that "hunger must not be weaponized." https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-russias-war-in-ukraine-is-assault-on-global-food-system/

Dmytro Bilyi was a doctor.
He was killed on Aug. 1, on his first day of work, during a Russian attack on Yevhen Karabelesh City Hospital in Kherson.
Dmytro was 25 years old.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUG 4:
■ Strikes & engagements down between days
■ Troop losses above 7-day average
■ Double-digit drone, vehicle, artillery & APV losses
■ Oryx: 48:27/added to records (Russian:Ukr hardware losses, this is0

@Surplus2requirements you made some nice comments about this thread being a reliable source of info a few days ago.

Just to reiterate, one of the limits of my sources is that they are pro-Ukraine only. Without reading Russian it's very hard to get the other side, though some folk on Twitter do pass info on.

Ukraine's information is generally accurate, but there's a lot it doesn't say. It seems that if they do say something you can believe it, but the overall picture can be distorted because you don't get the bad stuff.

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I also want to generally plug @Hillsmakeyoustrong as she does an incredible amount for Ukraine, giving time and money. She has made a lot of difference to many peoples' lives and saved some. Maybe others on this thread do too! she's just the one I know of.

@Naem this was re-tweeted by Bellingcat. They say it's massive. Could you be kind enough to explain what it is and the implications?

Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي
T NTarnopolsky

#Breaking: Susquehanna's Arthur Dantchik suspends financial support for @KoheletForum, the engine behind Netanyahu's power grab, of which he was #1 donor. "When society is so divided that democracy hangs in the balance we must focus on unity"

Sorry to disappoint, but unfortunately I don't think it is a such big deal.
I believe the Kohelet forum is one of the think tanks that have been advocating judicial reform (can't think what the equivalent is in the UK at the moment, but think right wing think tank that eg advocated Brexit).
All that seems to be suggested is that one of their biggest donors has got a bit scared by what has been unleashed, and is pulling funding, but unfortunately I think it is beyond think tanks now (bit like pulling the funding on a Brexit think tank right before the referendum or even after the referendum).
Wish I was wrong, but that is what I am getting out of it.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Here is the Times of Israel take on it - https://www.timesofisrael.com/key-donor-pulls-support-for-think-tank-behind-overhaul-backs-healing-rifts/

I mean, it is good news, and it shows that at least some people are starting to rethink the matter. But at this point we need the MKs in the coalition to change their mind (or enough of them), and they are not funded by him, at least not directly.

Ah, thanks for the explanation. Shame it isn't massive after all :/

Very hard hitting video for the mothers of Russian soldiers.

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1687427571791634433

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🇩🇪 Germany is slowing down the delivery of weapons promised to Ukraine, the Welt newspaper said.
According to the media outlet, after Zelenskyy's visit to Berlin, only 10 out of 110 promised Leopard tanks were delivered.

The defense forces have deployed the reserve 10th army corps for an offensive in the area of the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, WP, citing sources.
Robotyne is located less than 2.5 km from the main line of defense of the Russians. Some say a battle there is the closest and most realistic path to a breakthrough, with officials describing it as having great "strategic importance."

ATTACK ON RUSSIAN SHIP!
A drone, loaded with 450 kilograms of TNT, greeted the Russian ship "Olenegorsky Gornyak", Novorossiysk Bay. [incredible footage from the drone approachign the ship]

Poland is deploying attack helicopters and increasing the number of troops in the east of the country after Belarusian helicopters violated the country's airspace, TVP Info reports.
"The helicopters are armed and ready to fight... If there is any alarm, the pilots will not hesitate to open fire," said General Marek Sokolowski.

🕊️ Representatives of 30 countries have been invited to Saudi Arabia for a summit on ending the war in Ukraine. India and China will also join the talks — The Guardian & WSJ.

❗️Russians are preparing a large-scale false flag provocation at the strategic facility of Belarus—the Mozyr oil refinery.
Russian subversive group will carry out the provocation posing as "Ukrainian saboteurs". According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia plans to accuse Ukraine of the crime in order to drag Belarus into the war.

🇧🇬 The Bulgarian government followed the parliament in approving the provision of 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

❗️The United States has confirmed that Russia is building a plant in Tatarstan for the production of "Shahed" drones. According to the Pentagon, the plant could commence operations as early as next year.

Today, Ukraine began negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement on providing security guarantees.
This is stipulated by the Joint Declaration on Support for Ukraine, agreed at the NATO summit in Vilnius, which is the basis for developing relevant bilateral agreements.

💰 The Kremlin covers the fall in budget revenues from reserve funds, which were actively filled with foreign currency and gold before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Their volume is estimated at more than $150 billion - the National Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
In addition to reserves, Russia receives income from oil exports. At the beginning of the year, Russian exports amounted to 8.3 million barrels of oil per day, the highest level since April 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, after the price ceiling for purchases of Russian oil was set last December, revenues from the oil and gas industry, according to the Russian Ministry of Finance, decreased by 52% in 4 months of this year compared to January-April 2022.

🇷🇴 The drones used by Russia to attack Izmail yesterday breached the territory of Romania, — Digi24.
Residents report witnessing one drone falling in the forest. [but no parts are reported found]

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said that some of the mercenaries of the Wagner Group had been moved to Hrodna region, on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border.
The total number of mercenaries in Belarus is now estimated by the Lithuanians at 4,000, while it may well reach 10,000 in the future.

‼️ Reuters: According to one Ukrainian sapper, the Russians mine everything: doors, boxes, crates and even toys.
"They know that our sanitary evacuation teams pick up the wounded and killed, under which they then find explosives," Volodymyr says. Anesthesiologist Oleksandr from the 128th Brigade says they bring in five or six wounded men at a time, and most of them turn out to be sappers. The area is so heavily mined that even one step aside can be fatal.
In order to protect sappers, Ukraine has set up production of special boots. This is an analog of the Canadian prototype. The shoes raise the foot of the soldier above the ground with the help of four legs.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇨🇳 China has confirmed that it will take part in a meeting on a peace plan for Ukraine to be held in Saudi Arabia. Beijing will be represented by Li Hui, the special representative for Eurasian affairs who visited Ukraine in May.

Russia has already launched at least 1,961 Iranian drones at Ukraine, and a significant number have been shot down, Volodymyr Zelensky said.

1 The Russian naval base in Novorossiysk was attacked by naval drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense wrote that they were allegedly destroyed by fire from fleet ships, and the governor added that there were no casualties or damage.

2 Several Russian Telegram channels reported damage to a landing ship in Novorossiysk after an "unsuccessful" attack by naval drones. There is no official data yet.

3 [couple of videos of a Russian landing ship being towed, listing heavily]

🇱🇻 In September, 6,000 Russians will receive letters asking them to leave Latvia. These are those who have not even tried to pass the test for EU permanent resident status. After that, they have to leave Latvia within three months. If they do not, they will be fined.

Only Turkish President Erdogan can bring Putin back to the grain deal, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. Ukraine is currently coordinating this issue with Erdogan.

Alexei Navalny sentenced to 19 years in a special regime colony in the "extremism" case
The court found Navalny guilty under six articles of the criminal code: creation of an extremist community, calls to extremism, financing extremism, creation of an NGO that infringes on the rights of citizens, involvement of minors in the commission of dangerous acts and rehabilitation of Nazism.
The special regime is characterized by the fact that the lights are constantly on in the cell, there is continuous video surveillance, and prisoners cannot talk to each other. For the first 10 years of their sentence, they cannot receive visits or correspondence.

Evgeny Nikiforov, Director of Russian Orthodox Radio: "Ukrainians are not Christians, but pagans. And we should do to them as in the Old Testament - slit their throats.

"All Russian officials should drive domestic cars. All these officials, our wonderful officials, should realize that they should strive to develop domestic brands," - Vladimir Putin.

In Russia, a mercenary of the PMC "Wagner" who returned from the war killed 6 people.
Together with an accomplice, Sofonov first broke into one house and killed all of its occupants. Then the same thing was repeated in a neighboring house. The houses were burned down to hide the traces of the crime

The National Bank presented a new 10-hryvnia coin with a Patriot surface-to-air missile system instead of Hetman Ivan Mazepa. The coin is dedicated to the Air Defense Forces.

Ukrainian partisans from the group "Zla Mavka" updated the design of Russian rubles in occupied cities
What attracts occupiers and collaborators the most? Money, of course!
"That is, money is a way to remind them that they are in Ukraine," the group members say.
Each fake bill has the inscription "you are in Ukraine", as well as an image of Mavka (a creature of Ukrainian mythology, close to a mermaid - ed) with a Ukrainian trident.
The partisans have already put thousands of new bills into circulation in Melitopol, Berdyansk, Tokmak, Kakhovka, Simferopol, Sevastopol and Yalta

⛪️ The Pope apologized to Ukrainian youth for his inability to influence the situation in Ukraine.
Ukrainian woman Iryna Bilska handed the Pope the fragments of rockets that fell on the church yard in Beryslav, Kherson region.

In Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, the windows of a funeral home were plastered with posters that read "It's time, your homeland needs you." [God the Ukrainian sense of the ridiculous is great]

IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency
AT iaeaorg
·
2h
IAEA experts have observed no mines or explosives on rooftops of Unit 3 & 4 reactor buildings and turbine halls at#ZNPP, after having been given access yesterday. Team continues to request to visit the roofs of the other 4 units, @rafaelmgrossi said. bit.ly/3rTcxvP

Nevalny is never getting out is he 😭

That sentencing of Navalny* is horrific. Total isolation, no real rest and no privacy or contact with the outside world.
His only hope is that the Putin regime collapses before he does.

*FWIW, I don't pin any hopes on him of creating a western-style democracy but this does indicate why protest is so muted in Russia.

I would agree with you there on both counts.

I cannot believe the strength of conviction that made Navalny walk back into the Lion's Den knowing how brutal Putin's regime is. How does his wife even bear the thought of letting him go?

‼️ Reuters: According to one Ukrainian sapper, the Russians mine everything: doors, boxes, crates and even toys.
"They know that our sanitary evacuation teams pick up the wounded and killed, under which they then find explosives," Volodymyr says. Anesthesiologist Oleksandr from the 128th Brigade says they bring in five or six wounded men at a time, and most of them turn out to be sappers. The area is so heavily mined that even one step aside can be fatal.
In order to protect sappers, Ukraine has set up production of special boots. This is an analog of the Canadian prototype. The shoes raise the foot of the soldier above the ground with the help of four legs.

Those sappers are truly courageous knowing they will be the first to go. How they still go out there time and time again to clear the way for an advance is literally repeat suicide missions. Those shoes look fantastical but so clever. I wonder whether it spreads the weight around so the area/weight of the footprint is not big enough to detonate a mine. Or is to reduce the impact of a blast by lifting the foot off just by those few inches.

It's unbearable sometimes to read of very small children's toys being booby trapped and that Russians leave explosives under wounded men. Sappers have to face this .... there was a call a few weeks ago for left shoes from hospitals. They need 4 x more left shoes than right, because most sappers put their right foot down first ...

Mrs Zelenskyy said a day or two ago that half of Ukraine will need mental health support. The price mentally as well as physically that some people pay is just beyond words.

How do you even clear explosives under a wounded person? If the injured soldier knows this and is conscious, do they try to caution the sapper? Both the injured and the sapper must undergo untold mental anxiety to manage this situation to try to come out of it alive.

On top of that, Russian do double-tap missile/drone attacks where they attack first and then launch a second attack on the rescuers and medics who come to help.

I cannot comprehend this level of evil.

Interesting tweet (if they're still called that?) from AFU intelligence

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1687513145126899722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1687513145126899722%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Does anyone have access to this piece, perhaps?

https://www.ft.com/content/8e831ab5-c99f-4b59-9b9b-125697f86cf4

Pasted below @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Stakes are high as Ukraine’s offensive starts to secure a military advantage
Despite heavy attrition of Russian equipment, the question remains whether Kyiv can build momentum
For two months, Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive, trying to break through Russian defence lines to begin the liberation of the occupied territories. The fighting has been difficult and progress has been incremental. But over time, the Ukrainians have been securing the advantage. The question now is whether they can push Russian forces to breaking point.
After wasting thousands of troops in a failed spring offensive, the Russian military fell back to around 45km of defensive positions, stretching across the southern front from Zaporizhzhia through Donetsk, to prevent Ukrainian troops advancing towards the strategic, Russian-held city of Melitopol. The so-called Surovikin Line, named after a Russian general, comprises three lines of hardened trenches, each screened by dense minefields, anti-tank ditches, tank traps and wire entanglements. In front of these, Russian fighting positions are bolstered by anti-tank and anti-personnel mines.
Since the start of the offensive in early June, Moscow has adopted new tactics. Russian forces allow Ukrainians to enter the minefields and then aggressively counterattack, often with tanks and anti-tank guided weapons on the flanks. Once Ukrainian vehicles are knocked out, the Russians deploy mortars and artillery against the infantry. If Kyiv’s forces get across the minefields and into the trenches, the Russians often abandon their fighting positions and detonate prepositioned charges to kill the first wave of attackers.
After attempts to breach the minefields using explosives led to heavy Ukrainian casualties, Kyiv has adapted its tactics, infiltrating Russian positions to confuse the defenders and strike from the flanks, before attempting breaches. These methods have reduced Ukrainian losses, but the necessary planning and reconnaissance makes this a slow process, in which the Ukrainians fight for 700m at a time. This gives their opponents the chance to reset. But accelerating the process leads to an unacceptable rate of equipment loss. For the Ukrainians, the key is to manage their equipment, such as vehicles, to exploit a breach once it has been made.
As well as assaulting Russian positions, since early June Kyiv has also used precision missiles provided by its partners to destroy counter-battery radar. Without them, Moscow has found itself outranged and unable to locate Ukrainian artillery. Kyiv’s forces, by contrast, have become adept at locating Russian guns and destroying them with precision shells.
This systematic erosion of Russian artillery has been a turning point: for the first time in the war, Ukrainian howitzers can deliver sustained fire on to Russian positions. It also means that Moscow — while still destroying Ukrainian vehicles in the minefields — has less artillery power to kill the infantry that emerge from them. As a result, Ukrainian troops are succeeding in taking Russian positions, even when their vehicles are caught in the open.
In response, Moscow has had to be more aggressive with its own armoured vehicles. This has inflicted heavy casualties on Ukrainians, but deploying such vehicles close to the front has left them vulnerable. During the day, dozens of Ukrainian drones surveil the battlespace, filming and identifying targets. At night, these units send repurposed agricultural drones carrying rocket-propelled grenades to hunt for Russian armour.
The attrition of critical equipment is important for Kyiv both tactically and operationally. Ukraine has been using Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied by the UK to hit command posts, ammunition depots and bridges behind Russian lines. Together, the destruction of artillery, armour, radars and the loss of supplies are leaving Moscow’s infantry with diminishing support. However, Russian units continue to fight hard and Ukraine’s own equipment losses remain high. Kyiv’s forces are struggling with persistent Russian attack helicopters, which sit 8km to 10km from the front at low altitude, safe from air defences, and fire anti-tank missiles at Ukrainian vehicles.
The question is which side can sustain the current rate of attrition. On the southern front, Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army has borne the brunt of the fighting. About a quarter of the force is in the fighting positions at any one time and the Russians have had to rotate troops. They have few reserves. Ukraine, meanwhile, has fed additional units from the 10th Corps into the fight, keeping up the pressure. At some point, Russia’s infantry might be spread too thin and, with insufficient artillery and armoured support the defence could crumble. Dry weather will allow Ukraine to continue its push until the beginning of November. This will be a critical point: from then on, progress will depend on which side has made better preparations for winter fighting.
The stakes are high for Kyiv. If it breaks through it could liberate significant amounts of territory and force Russia to surge new units into Ukraine before they have finished training. Conversely, if Ukraine fails to breach the Surovikin Line then Russia can keep new units back, train and prepare them, and regain the initiative. Either way, Kyiv will need ongoing international assistance. But by autumn, the trajectory of the conflict will be clear.

Thanks, Magic and Ducks for linking to the FT piece.

Sounds like a relentless and brutal assault on Ukraine whilst they try to break through Russian defences amid heavy losses in equipment and troops. It concerned me that the article said that the Russians are fighting back hard rather than collapsing. I noticed the article said "On the southern front, Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army has borne the brunt of the fighting."

I recall that Gen. Ivan Popov was the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army in the Zaporizhzhia region which is strongly defended. He was recently sacked for voicing concerns about lack of force rotations. As MissConductUS pointed out below, he is a respected commander in the Russian army, a rare bird who actually cares for his troops. So his army is fighting back but taking losses. I imagine being previously under a strong commander, they are probably more effective than most Russian armies. Hoping they get wiped out.

>Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said that some of the mercenaries of the Wagner Group had been moved to Hrodna region, on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border.

That's Grodno to me. That's near the Lithuania - Poland - Belarus border. Head N West and you get to Suwalki in Poland where NATO has repeatedly gamed out a Russian get to Kaliningrad incursion.

Challenging / absent road network along much of the border. There really aren't many decent roads from Belarus into Poland, Lithuania and Latvia (hold that 3rd one for later).

If you do have an incursion across the border into Lithuania, especially towards Vilnius, you meet... Poles. Well, Lithuanian troops no doubt, but the population along much of the border skews Polish because of Stalin's big shift left of Poland's borders post WW2.

Of course you would be going across challenging road nets into a NATO country, but if you can do 'first we take Rostov, then we head to Moscow', what's stopping you? NATO Article 5? 'It's not me' says Putin 'not long ago they tried to take my capital, it's a non-state actor operating out of a third country'.

I assume it is a tease, but anything can happen with Wagner.

What would I do if I woke up one Wagner Wednesday and looked in the mirror and saw that I was Prigozhin, with or without a wig, and smiled and said to myself 'let's do something crazy today, I'm bored of Belarus'.

For a moment I'd think of a quick drive on Kyiv from Belarus, but that's been tried and ended in a traffic jam. No, I'd try for Daugavpils in Latvia and around. That's Dvinsk in Soviet times.

Why? Russian speakers. There was a referendum in Latvia a decade ago over whether Russian should be a second language. Big no vote, except for... see the green bits of the map.

It's LPR / DNR / Transnistria all over again. Except NATO Article 5, but that's a bridge to be crossed.

Attack Poland? The state it's in, the Russian Army would crumble against the Poles. Wagner? No chance.

Sorry if I've missed this, but have we discussed the coup in Niger? Worrying demonstrations of the Russia-Africa relationship and Wagner involvement even though officially Russia isn't involved. I might be overthinking this but it feels...not good

An article on Radio 4 this morning gave food for thought. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States has some 20 or so members that want the West to intervene. They do not support the military junta and of course Wagner has been operating in North / West Africa for some time. The Kremlin now admits it funds Wagner and has assimilated part into the regular army in Russia.
Wagner is stamped with Russia and it seems wherever Russia goes now it creates more good news for democracy. Think expansion of NATO for example.

This is what the ousted leader Bazoum said:

"Boko Haram and other terrorist movements will undoubtedly take advantage of the instability in Niger, using our country as a relay territory to attack neighbouring countries and undermine peace, security and freedom in the world".

"I call on the U.S. government and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order. Fighting for our shared values, including democratic pluralism and respect for the rule of law, is the only way to make lasting progress against poverty and terrorism. The people of Niger will never forget your support at this pivotal moment in our history. "

There were reports that Russia were supporting Bazoum and the coup came as a bit of a shock. If anything Bazoum's words suggest the opposite.

Putin seems the biggest promoter of Western democracy at times though he does not know it. The US are old masters when it comes to strategic political manipulation.

@MagicFox thanks very much for the article. There are some fairly unencouraging ones floating around atm :/

@Chatillon "I call on the U.S. government and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order.

I don't think the West -can- get involved. There's Ukraine and I'm not sure there's any appetite at all for another military intervention ...