Thanks for the input and reassurance on Belarus.
Interesting article from FT. It is behind a paywall so I have summarised with excerpts below.
Can't say I have too much sympathy for Western companies that chose to do business in Russia even after the invasion though I appreciate those who wanted to get out may not have been able to.
https://www.ft.com/content/c6108c1a-97dc-4469-aeb3-8b81ab52aaa9
Trapped or nationalised: walls close in on western businesses in Russia
Companies looking to get out are struggling with a dearth of buyers and hardening Kremlin attitudes
There is currently a scramble by Kremlin-connected oligarchs to snatch up prime assets owned by Western companies at bargain prices. This is “like in the good old times” of Russia’s first great sell-off following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, the assets on offer are all western, and all prospective buyers need are close ties to the Russian president.
In the early months of the invasion last year, a slew of western companies announced plans to divest from Russia. Sanctions were making business next to impossible and the reputational damage from staying was not worth the risks. Less than 300 of over 3,350 large foreign companies that owned assets in Russia have already left and about 500 are in the process of withdrawing. A ‘clean’ buyer is hard to find because of sanctions against Russia. No one wants to sell to a sanctioned buyer. Those buyers unaffected by sanctions often lack sufficient funds. Domestic buyers have to take out loans either from Russia’s top banks — all of which are sanctioned — or smaller lenders with questionable track records. If a company does find a “clean” buyer for its assets, it is often a front for a business or individual that is barred from doing a deal by sanctions.
Nearly a year and a half into the war, the situation for those that remain — which include PepsiCo, Philip Morris, Mars, UniCredit and Austria’s Raiffeisenbank has taken a turn for the worse.
Before Putin signed an order to nationalise the Russian operations of Danone and Carlsberg on Sunday, both companies were among the hundreds finalising sales to local buyers and awaiting state approval. Instead, both are now in effect controlled by regime loyalists - Danone will be run by Kadyrov's relative and Carlsberg by Taimuraz Bolloev, a personal friend of Putin.
“The beneficiaries are those who enjoy Putin’s trust and deserve his gratitude, such as Kadyrov. This is a mixture of state capitalism and feudalism.”
Throwing the oligarchs a bone
The Kremlin’s attitude to western businesses in Russia has hardened since frozen Russian assets in Europe have been taken over. The seizure of Uniper and Fortum came shortly after a court in Leipzig rejected state oil giant Rosneft’s appeal against Germany’s decision to put the company’s assets there under the control of the regulator.
According to one Russian oligarch, the Kremlin is using western assets to buy the loyalty of the country’s business elite, many of whom privately chafe at the war but have decided to stay in the country because of western sanctions.
“People have lost their capital outside Russia, but they are being compensated domestically. They can make the same money they lost in the UK or wherever again,” the oligarch said.
This tactic has made it less likely sanctions will turn Russia’s business elite against Putin, he added. “They are making money in Russia now. They forgot about this house in France or this yacht. They will build new yachts in Turkey and buy new houses in Dubai.”
A primary beneficiary is Vladimir Potanin who spent $1.17bn in 2022 buying massively discounted shares in Russian banks after their owners fled the country or found themselves on the wrong side of Putin, like Oleg Tinkov, who says he was forced to sell his stake in Tinkoff bank after he criticised the war.