Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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The plan calls for the deployment of 300,000 troops on high alert.

From which partner of origin to which destination partner? That to me is the most interesting answer.

Where are these 300,000 coming from and where will they go.

First Night of the Proms just started.

Thank you, will tune in now.

Thank you, nothing to contribute but hope.

yes

Proms link:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/events/evgxp6

You can also stream it on BBC Sounds.

Estonian intelligence chief Margo Grosberg said that the actions of Ukrainian troops during the counteroffensive and signs of complications for the Russian occupation army may indicate that Ukraine can expect a major success at the front in the near future

I was curious about this, so I found his full remarks. He makes some very good points. I have a lot of respect for the military and intelligence services of the former Soviet republics. Like the Israelis, competence in these areas is a matter of national survival. And no one understands the Russians like people who lived under their rule.

Ukraine close to major success at front – Chief of Estonian Defence Intelligence

10/ Once they've achieved that to a satisfactory degree, I think we will be surprised – or maybe shocked – at how rapidly the Ukrainians deal with the demoralised, underfed and underequipped men remaining in the Russian trenches. /end

The biggest risk is the minefields.

The biggest risk is the minefields.

I would reframe that to "the biggest obstacle is the minefields*. They can be cleared with the right equipment, but it's a slow process.

I've seen videos of the Russians driving vehicles over their own mines, so the danger cuts both ways.

Or rather the exposure to attack while clearing a route through the minefields

13 pages in already… too many to catch up. But the Wimbledon mixed doubles Ukrainian winner made me feel teary today when she said the Ukrainian people were fighting for survival. This war remains incredibly senseless. Crazy even.

Me too @DrBlackbird & Elina Svitolina was phenomenal!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.
• Belarusian government and independent sources confirmed on July 14 that Wagner Group instructors previously deployed in Africa previously arrived at training grounds in Belarus.
• Former 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Major General Ivan Popov’s dismissal continues to generate pronounced ire against the Russian military command and the Russian civilian leadership.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 14 and reportedly made gains in some areas.
• Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 14.
• Russian authorities detained former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Mikhail Polyakov, who reportedly is the administrator of several popular telegram channels covering internal Kremlin politics.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are waging an interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in Russia.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizha Oblast border and reportedly made limited gains.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in this direction.
• Russia continues efforts likely aimed at keeping high ranking officers in their positions without needing special exemptions to retirement age limits.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to consolidate administrative control of occupied territories by manipulating residence requirements and forcibly passportizing occupied populations.

Extra: The military correspondent claimed that Russian elites and businessmen have agreements with the Russian military command constraining Russian military action on the ground to avoid damaging economic interests - providing the hypothetical example of Russian forces being denied permission to attack a town to preserve an industrial plant owned by a Russian businessman.

UK Int Update: Trouble in the Russkiy paradise, eh?

Ooo bbc sounds works over here so I can listen

The appalling Gerkin posted this, translated by wartranslated.

Need to bear in mind that he's often pessimistic and, well, he's Russian. But there's some interesting info about how Ukraine adapted its tactics after early losses in the counteroffensives

He also gives some details about low personnel numbers in units and the last of reinforcements for losses.

Dmitri
@wartranslated

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”. The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles. Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles. […]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this. It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state. [...] I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately.

But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less. Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops. If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy.

This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier. […] We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units. Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it.""

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️National Guard: Ukraine advances ⚡️National Guard: Ukraine advances (https://kyivindependent.com/military-3/) 1,700 meters in Melitopol direction. 1,700 meters in Melitopol direction.

⚡️Ukrainian Tavria troops destroy https://kyivindependent.com/tavria-troops-destroy-9-ammunition-depots/ 9 ammunition depots, demolish Russian military equipment.

Ukraine's Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak said US is 'very close' https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-us-is-very-close-to-decision-on-atacms-for-ukraine/**to decision on ATACMS for Ukraine.

⚡️Moscow denies https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-denies-agreeing-to-extend-black-sea-grain-deal/ agreeing to extend Black Sea grain deal.

In an interview with the Washington Post, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, defended his army's right to strike Russian soil, adding that such attacks are carried out only with Ukraine-made weapons. https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-on-ukrainian-strikes-inside-russia-it-is-up-to-us-to-decide-how-to-kill-this-enemy/

In a July 14 press conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany expects to provide Ukraine with $19 billion, or 17 billion euros, in arms deliveries until 2027. Scholz said the calculations begin from 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, and track projected spending until the year 2027. https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-germany-to/

⚡️ South Korean president makes first-ever visit to Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/south-korean-president-in-kyiv-visits/ goes to see war crime sites.

Wagner contractors are already in Belarus and are training Belarusian troops at a camp near Asipovichy, the Belarusian official military news channel VoenTV reported on July 14. https://kyivindependent.com/minsk-says-wagner-contractors-in-belarus-train-belarusian-soldiers/

The European Union and the European Central Bank (ECB) are in dispute over plans to use profits from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's reconstruction, Bloomberg reported on July 14.
Officials from the EU's executive branch have opposed ECB President Christine Lagarde's warnings that measures against sanctioned holdings could endanger the eurozone's financial stability and the liquidity of the common currency, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-european-central-bank-argue-over-plan-to-tax-sanctioned-russian-assets/

⚡️Reuters: European trade group considers https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-european-industry-considers-sanctions-on-russian-aluminum/ sanctions on Russian aluminum.

The Cabinet of Ministers appointed Ivan Vyhivskyi as the chief of the National Police, the Ukrainian government’s press service said on July 14. https://kyivindependent.com/government-appoints-new-head-of-national-police/

⚡️ Moscow-backed Orthodox Church metropolitan taken into custody https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-backed-orthodox-church-metropolitan-taken-into-custody/

⚡️Ukrainians Oksana Zabuzhko, Oleg Sentsov awarded https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-oksana-zabuzhko-oleg-sentsov-awarded-french-legion-of-honor-order/ French Legion of Honor order.

Oilfield services company SLB announced on July 14 that it will immediately stop all shipments of its products and technology from its facilities worldwide. https://kyivindependent.com/slb-halts-all-shipments-of-products-and-services-into-russia/

Ragnar's daily update. I don't find it as easy to read as the Kyiv Independent one, but it has all the info.

590 personnel lost, 14 artillery but generally much lower hardware losses than some days.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The State Border Service of Ukraine confirms the appearance of separate groups of the "Wagner" PMC in Belarus, — a spokesman for the State Border Service of Ukraine.

Denmark handed Ukraine six drones capable of finding explosives on the ground and underwater, Defense Minister Reznikov said.
Now Ukraine is one of the most mined countries in the world. As of the end of March, the area of mined territories reached 174,000 square kilometers.

The EU cannot agree with the European Central Bank on using profits from frozen Russian assets, — Bloomberg.
More than €200 billion of frozen assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can bring about €3 billion in profit.
The funds are planned to be used for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

The US will have enough resources to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia and to protect NATO members.
Pentagon representative Pat Ryder said that the Russian Federation is isolated, except Iran, while the US, on the contrary, cooperates on this issue with more than 50 countries.

Ukrainian military personnel are trained on American M1A1 Abrams FEP tanks in Germany

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Ukrainian GUR has sources in the offices closest to Putin.
"We have our own sources. In the closest offices, so to speak. That's why we usually know what's going on," Kyrylo Budanov told https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-spymaster-comes-out-shadows-2023-07-14/ Reuters.

Attitudes towards the Russian Federation in different countries of the world - Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/10/overall-opinion-of-russia/

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/15/russia-ukraine-war-news/)- The United Nations said that, since June 27, no new ships have been allowed into the Black Sea corridor protected by the expiring grain deal, a vital passageway for grain from Ukraine to make its way to vulnerable parts of the world.

• Putin said that he offered Wagner fighters a chance to stay together under the command of a different leader, in his interview with Kommersant.

• The Wagner Group is now reportedly training troops in neighboring Belarus, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense said in a statement Friday, describing the Wagner fighters as “instructors in a number of military disciplines.”

- Zelensky said Friday that he partook in the Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference, which is sometimes called “summer camp for billionaires.”

- Russia is “investing everything they can” to stop Ukraine from reclaiming territory in the east and south, Zelensky said in his nightly address.

Should Ukraine be continually be grateful for supplied weaponry? In a way they are fighting a proxy war on behalf of the west to maintain the rules based order of the world and prevent Russian expansionism.

We supply the weapons the Ukrainians the manpower. Should we be grateful for the Ukrainians losing lives to provide a bulwark against an aggressive Russia?

Precisely mids2019. We are the ones who should be grateful to Ukraine.

FT article "Finland says western aid to Ukraine ‘not charity’"

Foreign minister rebukes claims that Kyiv is not grateful for the support it receives

Finland has hit back at claims aired at a Nato summit that Ukraine has failed to show gratitude for western support, saying aid should not be regarded as charity.

Finnish foreign minister Elina Valtonen said in an interview that “we in the west need to understand that obviously, this is not charity because Ukraine is fighting for us. They are fighting for our liberty and the European security architecture.”

Glad to see Finland is making their stance clear.

I think Ben Wallace will get to regret his Amazon comment.

I think it is rather humiliating for the Ukrainian president to continually be thankful after every tranche of weapon supplies.

What if Kiev had fallen quickly as the Russians planned? There would have been the annexation of a major country in Europe and the geopolitical ramifications would be considerable
.

Remember Sweden and Finland were not in NATO last year and those two counties would have had to desperately negotiate quick entrance into NATO as well as looking at ways of maintaing their own defences.

Western capitals would be humiliated by a lack of ability to respond to the take over of a sovereign European country and there is an argument the tension from th result of such an occupation would lead us closer to WW3.

There would have been mass civil rights abuses throughout the country and the west would have watched impotently as there was a growing refugee crisis

Ukrainian leadership and bravery prevented this so I think they should be lauded and made to 'beg' for weaponry.

Actually, I think a bit of appreciation on both sides is called for. The West could have not gone to Ukraine's support and honestly? It might well have if Zelenskyy and co. hadn't been so blazingly defiant.

Without Western weopons Ukraine would suffer far more and might have lost.

Without Ukraine taking the hammer blows of the Russian army, European countries, certainly the Eastern ones, would be invaded and fall one by one.

So it's mutually a good thing that we are helping each other. But frankly just as with good friends, the odd 'thank you' goes a long way to keep things sweet.

This whole argument is a storm in a teacup and should be poured away, imo.

Might well not* have

I thought Ben Wallace made the Amazon comment last year. Why is it suddenly being talked about now?