Can someone please explain the Russia/Wagner thing really simply please?

[darkmodeon]

I've tried reading up but it seems to assume a basic level of knowledge - I don't. All I know is Russia invaded Ukraine and I have no idea who or what Wagner is but they are now invading Russia?!

I know it's serious and everything but yes when I saw the headline I has literally no idea who Wagner was and I too thought of the xfactor man.

Ok thank you - where will I find this thread? Is it on chat?

Ah yes! Right below this one atm! Thanks again everyone

Sorry meant to link them!
Page 10 | Ukraine Invasion: Part 41 | Mumsnet
Ukraine Invasion: Part 42 | Mumsnet

Reporting on the troll factories, some of it back to 2015.

Prigozhin openly bragged this year that he was the inventor, financier and manager of the "Internet Research Agency", and that he had interfered in other countries' elections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/17/russian-troll-factory-activists-protests-us-election

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/01/troll-factory-spreading-russian-pro-war-lies-online-says-uk

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/14/europe/russia-yevgeny-prigozhin-internet-research-agency-intl/index.html

Wagner group specifically and publicly recruited from inside Russia’s prisons. They did not put limits on who could sign up and there have been numerous articles exploring the dread the Russian victims of these criminals feel when these freed rapists and murderers come back from the front as demobilized ex military.

Ok so this is a fantastic substack that explains the war really well from historian and professor of military studies, Lawrence Freedman. The latest post explains what is going on at this moment in time all quite succinctly:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny

Two most important questions:

1. Like all uprisings/Putschs etc. will the military remain loyal to the government?
2. Who will win the propaganda war?

What will be interesting to see is how the Russian troops actually in Ukraine react. If they do a 1917 ”vote with their feet“ things could change very quickly.

Convicted murderers and rapists.

Putin has been looking for an excuse to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Wagner is the excuse.

"I wasn't nuking Ukraine, which would be a naughty international act of war; I was merely crushing Wagner to save Russian democracy from civil war.".

Ah

Jeez 😫

It's not Wagner in Ukraine Putin's worried about!

As of now, it's Wagner 450km from Moscow and closing.

There are reports the Russian state is digging up the M4 highway with road diggers to try to slow the advance. There were certainly laden sand and water trucks parked on and blocking a key bridge this morning.

I've not long come out of hospital and feeling very out of it today. STBexH who I still have to house share with just com out and said "theres a situation developing in Russia (whispered this). If I am out and things look bad, shut all the doors and windows and fill the bath with water". - no word of a lie, deadly serious. I mean obvs this is why he's STBex but even so, excelled himself there. Has warned me of nuclear war but hasn't managed to put the vacuum round though ...

Should I fill the bath?

No. I mean, unless you're in Moscow?

Not unless you fancy a nice warm soak.

I'd be astonished if anything nuclear seriously affects us any time soon.

Obviously if Prigozhin wins and there's a lot of instability, it's a concern for the future. But still only "concern", not "imminent."

The most immediate threat involving nuclear material is that there is fairly reliable information the Russians have mined a nuclear power station in Ukraine, and could chose to blow it.

That would be awful for the local Ukrainians and downwind countries. But it's not the end of days for the UK.

He’s just sent loads of texts telling me to
get torches and matches together. I know this was meant to be a serious thread and I’ve been a bit lighthearted but you know sometimes he just scares me because he’s a lunatic. Surely no one else in the UK in their right mind would be saying this?

These criminals are being led by someone who was Putin's "caterer". He is not a criminal but retaliating against what he feels is unfair when this group were bombarded by the Russian military. He is against that Military leader.
He uses the men to lead his revenge against Putin and his corrupt war.
Putin is a dicator and imploding from within.

Reading news articles, it appears that Prigozhin is on a revenge against one of Putin's key military leader.
Don't believe a word Putin says. Nobody is a winner and it appears not a takeover but a revenge.

I've just rewatched Chernobyl, and it has, again, put the absolute fear of God into me about what the Russians are capable of. Obviously, I'm aware that it was nearly 40 years ago, but I still find it terrifying to think of the power that place has.

Other than the US, the (who appear to have replaced Russia as energy suppliers to Germany) the rest of the world is suffering from a cost of living crisis arising from sanctions to punish Putin and his oligarchs.
Senior Russian military had been siphoning off public funds for decades and when Putin ordered the invasion, lots of substandard tyres and other parts failed with major equipment losses.
Boris got in first with unequivocal, open-ended support for Ukraine and has made several millions since leaving office on the back of that decision.
Putin used Wagner as cannon-fodder, but many are battle-hardened mercenaries are effective (and extremely brutal) fighters.
The official Russian military have been shown to be inept and Prigozhin has critcised them for withholding ammunition from his soldiers. A rocket attack by the official Russian military on Wagner soldiers led to Prigozhin seizing the military HQ closest to the Ukrainian border.
Western politicians have given the impression that regime change in Russia will fix everything ... assuming the replacement isn't more trigger-happy than Putin.
Things in the war could be about to get a lot uglier as it will soon be difficult to know what actions have been ordered by the Kremlin and which are mercenaries, official forces following orders or rogue groups armed to the teeth.

I sometimes wonder if in 2019 some idiot said “Gosh the world is really boring right now, wish something exciting would happen….”
Well they must be happy now it’s been non stop fun ever since 😳

I don't know anyone who has suggested that mere regime change in Russia will fix everything. As you say, things could be about to get a lot uglier.

Also, as an aside, it's been pointed out on the Ukraine threads that Wagner appears to have plenty of ammunition up its sleeve right now. If so, that is ammunition that it has kept back from its frontline troops in Ukraine in order to use against Putin.

Quote: A rocket attack by the official Russian military on Wagner soldiers led to Prigozhin seizing the military HQ closest to the Ukrainian border.

Yes, indeed, wars get uglier, but hopefully Prigozhin will put a spanner in Putin's war of choice. I don't think Prigozhin is a criminal but has had enough of being used as military fodder. Maybe it needed someone like Prigozhin to backfire on this dictator.

Prigozhin is a criminal.

And a very nasty one at that.

The Rest is Politics have put out an emergency podcast which might help give you the background and other relevant information you need. It’s only 22 mins long so nice and concise:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rest-is-politics/id1611374685?i=1000618178821