Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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The lack of global condemnation will add to the feeling that Ukraine are just sitting ducks for yet another act of eco-terrorism from Russia. Why is the West so muted on this? The consequences of non-action are staring us in the face.

The war on Ukraine feels emblematic of a global and apocalyptic fight between tyranny and freedom. One that is playing out in so many countries. I can’t help a depressed feeling that if Ukraine doesn’t push Russia back to its borders, that it somehow means that the global tide has turned to tyranny.

Perhaps that’s overly simplistic and naive, that tyranny is a default historical setting and the peace and relative expansion of democracy since WWII is the anomaly. But for the sake of the world and for our children, I want to be more hopeful. However, there’s little hope if the wealthier western nations stumble or stay silent or fail to keep supporting Ukraine.

Yes, depressingly. Not seeing much evidence of any kind of 'great awakening' happening

Looks like we will get some more news of liberated settlements today / tomorrow.

Seems like Russian sources are saying that Russian troops have left P'yatykhatky. Indications are that Ukraine are just clearing up the last few troops there now.

I was seeing rumours about a few other places last night too. (Staromaiorske and Rivnopil).

Let's hope so!

There's another side to Ukraine's strategy. While making these incremental gains (primarily by attacking at night, when they have a huge advantage thanks to Western night vision technology), they are also attriting Russian supplies and logistics using precision long-range fires.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1670274312316628994

This strike was on the coast of the Sea of Azov, so quite some distance from the front lines.

Remember Clausewitz? Ukraine is spending time to conserve force and gain space. This fits with Ukraine's doctrine of preserving its troops by leveraging it's technical advantages.

I'm actually quite encouraged by Ramaphosa's visit. Haven't followed his activities in recent years, so might have missed something important, but in his earlier years I really rated him.

He's a very smart, capable bloke who came up through the South African trades union movement and was part of the negotiations about the end of apartheid. I've always thought of him as having ability and integrity (though all politicians are born to break our hearts).

Somewhat out of the same drawer as Zelensky.

Of course I don't know how the meetings in Ukraine went, and I wouldn't expect Ramaphosa to slag Putin off in public, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a subtle shift in S Africa's attitude after this. Not guaranteed, but I'm mildly hopeful.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front.
• A delegation representing seven African states met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg following a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on June 16 to propose a generalized peace plan focused on resuming international trade.
• The Kremlin will likely exploit this proposal to promote Russian information operations aiming to slow Western security assistance to Ukraine and has not demonstrated any intent to meaningfully engage with any peace process.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to signal his disinterest in formally subordinating the Wagner private military company (PMC) to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• The New York Times (NYT) released a report supporting ISW’s prior assessment that Russian forces most likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted localized ground attacks west and south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces and Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks in the Bakhmut area and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar likely in response to Ukrainian territorial gains in the area on June 16.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces intensified attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to gradually mobilize Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian officials are planning several infrastructure projects connecting occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to occupied Crimea, likely to secure new ground lines of communication (GLOCs) for the Russian grouping in southern Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Podoliak: African leaders (https://kyivindependent.com/podolyak-african-leaders-came-to-ukraine-to-ask-for-putins-arrest-warrant-suspension/) came to Ukraine to ask for suspension of Putin's arrest warrant.
The African leaders' delegation that came to Kyiv on June 16 to present a peace plan was mostly interested in suspending Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's arrest warrant, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said.
"There is one point that worries them and for which, I think, they came," he said on June 17

⚡️Denmark ready (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-ready-to-give-f-16-to-ukraine-if-us-approves/) to give F-16s to Ukraine if US approves

⚡️Media: Biden (https://kyivindependent.com/media-biden-says-not-ready-to-ease-nato-access-for-ukraine/) not ready to ease NATO access for Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters on June 17 that he wouldn't ease barriers to Ukraine's membership in NATO because the country has to meet the same standards as other members, CNN reported.

⚡️State Emergency Service: 28 settlements (https://kyivindependent.com/state-emergency-service-28-settlements-remain-flooded-in-kherson-oblast/) remain flooded in Kherson Oblast. 11 are located on the Ukrainian-controlled west bank of the Dnipro River, and 17 on the Russian-occupied east bank.

'Unity is key (https://kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-united-to-save-lives-in-flood-hit-kherson-oblast/).' Volunteers join forces to save flood-hit Kherson Oblast. The challenging evacuations from the flood-hit area have been mainly conducted by Ukrainian first responders and volunteers, while none of the major international organizations, such as the UN or International Committee of the Red Cross, have sent missions to help. [They have a duty of care to staff but verified local organisations give way more bang for the buck]

⚡️Interior Ministry: Kakhovka Dam death toll rises to 16 (https://kyivindependent.com/kakhovka-dam-death-toll-rises-to-16-with-31-missing/), with 31 missing [this is likely to be an underestimate]

⚡️ISW: Prigozhin shows no interest (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-27/) in formally subordinating Wagner to the Russian Defense Ministry.

⚡️Mayor: Russian forces abduct nearly 300 children (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-2/) from Berdiansk district to Russia.

⚡️ Russian governor claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-drone-attack-on-oil-refinery-in-bryansk-oblast/) drone attack on oil refinery in Bryansk Oblast.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces fail to advance (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-forces-fail-to-advance-in-the-east/) in the east, conduct 37 airstrikes across Ukraine.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine hits Russian ammo depot (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-hit-russian-ammo-depot-in-occupied-kherson-oblast/) in occupied Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of over 25,000 Russian soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of/)killed** in Ukraine.
Through open source research, Mediazona, a Russian independent media outlet, together with BBC Russia, confirmed the names of 25,528 Russian soldiers who had been killed in the past 15 months of the full-scale war.

This week's episode of #ThisWeekInUkraine is all about Ukraine's high-stakes counteroffensive.
Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell joins host Anastasiia Lapatina.

⚡️Kremlin spokesman claims (https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-spokesman-ukraine-largely-demilitarized/) Ukraine largely 'demilitarized.'
Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
[email protected]
AT ragnarbjartur
·
2h

HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUN 18: ■ Combat engagements dip below 30 ■ Troop losses above 7-day average despite that ■ Double-digit APV, vehicle & artillery losses ■ 2x helicopter losses (5 in 7 days)

UNITED24 Media Telegram

This deal has no prospects, there are no grounds for an extension, — Kremlin Speaker Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia's readiness to withdraw from the grain agreement. [very worrying, though they haven't been keeping to the agreement some grain had gotten through]

The Portuguese company Tekever will send drones to Ukraine
UAV manufacturer Tekever said it would deliver part of its systems to Kyiv to support land and sea operations, DefenseNews reports.

In Rykove, Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit a large warehouse of the Russian military

🇩🇰The Danish authorities are ready to hand over F-16 fighters to Ukraine, however, subject to the approval of the United States, which manufactures these planes, — Acting Minister of Defense of Denmark Troels Lund Poulsen

Ukraine is on the way to the liberation of Crimea, — General Hodges
"Ukraine has embarked on a path that will lead to the liberation of Crimea and the expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine. Therefore, the start of a counteroffensive is an important step for Ukraine, but its main phase has not yet begun," he emphasized.

Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich is "refusing to sign off on the £2.3BN Ukraine is due to receive from last year's sale of Chelsea," according to the Daily Mail.
Instead he allegedly wants "a substantial amount" to go to Russians affected by war.

Blowing up the underwater passage to the engine room is the most likely cause of the collapse of the Kakhovka HPP dam, — The New York Times

The water level in the Kherson region is currently 1.09 m, about 30 settlements remain flooded.

The European Parliament demands that the cases against Ukrainian teenagers Tigran Hovhannesyan and Mykyta Khanganov be dropped, and the charges against them be dropped.
The Russian authorities accuse them of an alleged plan to damage the railway infrastructure of Berdiansk. Now they face up to 20 years in prison.

AGS-17 grenade launcher and an owl on a newly captured Russian position

Russia doesn't only destroy Ukrainian houses and lives, it also destroys Ukrainian art.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has arrived in China for the first time on an official visit. He is to unfreeze diplomatic contacts after the February incident when a Chinese spy balloon flew into the United States.

Putin keeps trying to find sane people who still want to talk to him. But the circle is getting smaller by the day. In a few more months Putin will be meeting with representatives of Arctic indigenous tribes to discuss their peace plan for Ukraine.

WarGonzo states Piatykhatky is now back under Ukrainian control. Say they're getting ready to move forward, towards Vasylivka. We're advancing, slowly but surely.

IKEA has announced that it joins the major Scandinavian boycott campaign of Mondelez.
The Nordic countries protest against the company’s refusal to leave the Russian market.
A few days ago, the Swedish Army announced that it will also boycott Mondelez.

A place where a 2-day-old child was killed by a Russian missile. A boy called Serhiy has lived only two days after his birth when Russian missile killed him, in a strike on a hospital in Vilniansk, South-Eastern Ukraine. This happened in November 2022.

We will not see a counteroffensive by Ukraine in the next week - Estonian Intelligence
"It is obvious that the initiative is now in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means that they choose the time, place and means by which they will attack the enemy units. In order not to take unnecessary risks, the Ukrainians are approaching their operation more methodically, more carefully and quietly, as both human and technical resources are essentially worth their weight in gold," said Colonel Margo Grosberg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center.
In turn, the Russian Federation will try to destroy Ukraine's offensive capabilities as much as possible, using artillery, minefields, and air strikes, Grosberg added.

Are the UK also boycotting Mondelez? It's quite easy to boycott Marabou and Milka chocolate but I'd struggle with Cadbury's. Fry's Turkish Delight is my kryptonite.

That's Cadburys and Philadelphi cheese crossed of my shopping list

Tactics they've been taught by NATO troops who have provided training since 2014. Previously Ukraine would have followed the Soviet doctrine of throwing endless manpower and ammunition at a war of attrition.

It's difficult (and I have wanted to avoid them ever since they started ruining our chocolate) but this may be the final straw. I needed to cut down anyway.

What kind of name is Mondelez anyway? It's so stupid. And yes, I agree about the chocolate being ruined by the American owners of Cadbury now. Not quite as bad as Hershey, low bar that may be.

Agree.

Lots of indication that they are doing lots of mine clearing as they go.

BUT

There's definitely a growing sense of nervousness.

This was one tweet this morning by the MOD

(3/3) In the south, Russian forces often conduct relatively effective defensive operations. Both sides are suffering high casualties, with Russian losses likely the highest since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March.

And there's the rub. The Russians spent a long time digging in and making defences. That means even if morale is low, they don't need huge numbers of soldiers to defend. The Ukrainians found it easier to defend than the Russians found to be on the Offensive WITHOUT the benefit of those defences.

I have seen that within Bakhmut itself the Ukrainians have done well in securing the strategic high ground in the last few weeks but at what cost?

I think the issue here is how far can they go - they will need a significant breakthru / collapse of Russian forces at some point. The railway line supply is the obvious target. How quickly can they do that?

Water is the issue over the summer, but that will gradually shift to food I suspect. And a slow grinding down of ammunition.

Can they achieve a breakdown before winter? Debatable. That suggests to me that the winter could get ugly in a whole new and deeply unpleasant way.

Has any one else seen vague reports of a cholera outbreak among the Russian troops in Kherson

I have to hope that that assessment isn't right, RTB :( Pure emotion but god, I hope they can succeed.

Seen one report, @minsmum. Don't know how reliable it is.

Ukrainian sourced rumours only at this stage.

Also rumours of typhus and dysentery amongst Russians in Bakhmut

And there's the rub. The Russians spent a long time digging in and making defences. That means even if morale is low, they don't need huge numbers of soldiers to defend. The Ukrainians found it easier to defend than the Russians found to be on the Offensive WITHOUT the benefit of those defences.

I have seen that within Bakhmut itself the Ukrainians have done well in securing the strategic high ground in the last few weeks but at what cost?

I think the issue here is how far can they go - they will need a significant breakthru / collapse of Russian forces at some point. The railway line supply is the obvious target. How quickly can they do that?

A few thoughts, RTB. The front line is about 600 miles long. The Russians do need large number of forces to defend a line that long. The UAF are attacking in four sectors, having more gains in some places than others. This phase aims to assess where and when to commit the main force while continuing to attrit Russian supplies and logistics.

As to when a breakthrough will occur, the answer depends on data we don't have. Ground combat is unpredictable and can turn on small events. I remain optimistic in the long run.

Attack helicopters are their greatest threat at the moment. A third of them have been destroyed but that still leaves around 60 which pose a serious threat to armour.

There is still some resistance among older Ukrainian officers, who commanded for years under the top-down model, to delegating operational and tactical decision making to mid and lower ranking officers, but it's gotten much better. And the younger officers are fully on board with a mission command approach.

NATO troops are still in touch with the Ukrainian forces they trained. I know one Master Sargent who trained Ukrainian troops who gets calls from them on his mobile occasionally to ask for advice or information about a particular piece of American equipment they're using.

The two counters to this are more man portable air defense weapons and long range strikes on the airfields they fly from. I expect to see more of both.

It has to be said that yes, potentially, some think they are a real problem.

On paper they can carry at least some anti-tank guided munitions that have a slightly greater range than any Ground Based Air Defence (GBAD) available to the Ukrainian army.

I've heard worries expressed that in theory the Russian helos can sit back behind the forward line of their own troops and plink away at Ukraine Armour from long range....

@MissConductUS

"As to when a breakthrough will occur, the answer depends on data we don't have. Ground combat is unpredictable and can turn on small events. I remain optimistic in the long run."

Yep, very much agree....the general public simply don't have the data to do meaningful analysis.