Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

I agree. It is perfectly possible to take a firm unequivocal position and not waste time on pointless debates. There is only one outcome I am interested in and that includes Ukraine's lands being taken back to the position at 2014.

I personally find it interesting to think of the future both for itself but also because the better the solution found for Crimea now, the less chance there is of more conflict.

It might come anyway given Crimea's location and the water issues, but a settlement that makes most people unhappy is going to make things worse.

Also I just hadn't realised the complexity of the issue and it's central to any sort of genuine peace.

I wouldn't say this is a debate thread, its an information thread so all relevant information* is good, even if it might conflict with previous information.

*Russian trolls spouting propaganda as happens from time to time, less often now than earlier on, isn't information, of course

I was thinking and it’s perhaps not always a bad thing to have the odd troll so long as they’re called out. Russian propaganda is insidious and people (myself included) might find this thread helps them to spot it in other, less obvious, settings.

On the issue of Russia propaganda, the latest episode of Doomsday Watch contains an interview with a Ukrainian fighter who was previously in Russian captivity, he himself acknowledges that if it’s all you’re seeing (as was the case in the prison he was in) it can be incredibly persuasive, especially if you have zero alternative viewpoints.

There is an interesting online article ‘Crimea Matters to Russia’ in the Financial Times dated 3 March 2014 which provides an historical background to the invasion by Russia at that time together with a map which shows Crimea’s strategic and political importance. Another graphic shows the breakdown of native Russian speakers in 2001 census population.
Unfortunately there is a paywall, however it can accessed by searching for it by its title.

I’m not here for a debate.

I have been on this thread since thread number 1. Initially, as it was a good source of information from various people and places. This was a thread where we were all united by the outrage that Putin had invaded another country but also by our feelings of despair that so many innocent people were being tortured and killed (I still have that feeling).

I’m still here, 40 threads later, because I can no longer watch the news due to feeling distressed by seeing the suffering, death and destruction caused by the Putin, Wagner and the Russian army and so this thread and a few reliable twitter sources are my way of keeping updated on the war in Ukraine.

Throughout the war, these threads have reassured people (when the media were saying that Russia was going to bomb us), informed us and have even had a little humour. I value the opinions of certain posters.

I very rarely post as I don’t have very much to contribute but I’m very grateful for the time and effort that the regular posters put into this thread.

It is starting to feel as though we have some new posters who are trying to derail the thread, I just look at the username and scroll on by. I’m starting to hope that regular users don’t even bother to engage with them. I used to be on the Westminsters threads and the use of 🐿was a sign of posters to ignore. I’m sure there’s probably a better emoji to use for people that want to spread Russian propaganda.

Sorry, the title should read Why Crimea matters to Russia

Absolutely this.

I don't mind engaging with trolls, they don't stay long as there are too many knowledgeable people here who can rebut their claims. This is a lovely community made up of people with different areas of expertise so I have been able to learn a lot.

Crimea was brought up by a 🧌 and I've learnt loads. More importantly, I've learnt that I didn't know that I didn't know and have the opportunity to educate myself further if I choose.

The best way to deal with misinformation in my opinion is to challenge it and show it up for what it is with facts.

An office of BAE Systems, one of the world's largest defense enterprises, will open in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy said.

The cynics will be asking if that's a good thing for Ukraine or a bad thing.........

🤐

Glad to see the BBC finally making a headline of accounts from Ukrainian mothers and their desperate and incredibly brave journeys to try and retrieve their abducted children.

You're welcome. He's also on twitter a lot, and one of the few people I follow there. Here's a recent post.

https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1663837712883875840

"Russian escalation" is our own creation. They don't think like that...they avoid our strength and exploit our weakness. Yet we act as if we are terrified of them and what they might do. And so we self-deter. That's what provokes them to attack.

This was in the context of President Biden's statement that the provision of US ATACAMS long range ballistic missiles "is still in play".

He goes on to explain why he thinks they won't use tactical nukes,

Yes to Ukraine winning 1000% but i do not believe that pre 2014 borders are possible or even desirable.
Russia needs to be given a way out, they are not Syria or Iraq, they are a huge world nuclear power and shouldn't be humiliated .....too much....

That said, it is up to Ukraine, ultimately, its their call, i'd support re arming UA for as long as they wish.

However, Ukraine needs the means to push Russia back to pre 2022 borders and thats going to mean opening up the Black Sea (removing Russia's ability to launch missiles from their ships stationed there) and far more AA missile systems and longer range missiles, atm UA is limited in being able to attack missile and drone launch sights, plus their military bases in Ukraine.

Hear hear! To wish for debate in a thread designed to provide a constantly changing picture of what is happening during a war, with a large quantity of information, is similar to wishing for debate eg about the three-colour problem when thinking about decorating a kitchen or about which countries have feral wallabies when deciding whether to keep a goat. Such debate not relevant to what is happening.

It is fascinating to read views about the ethnic make-up of the Crimean population, and also about the history of Crimea as an area, a country, a province or whatever else. But that actually has the square root of frod all to do with Russia invading Eastern (and Northern) Ukraine and bombing large sections of it to oblivion, while attempting and failing to destroy the capital city. Knowing the history doesn't help the abducted children, murdered old men, or raped and mutilated woman all that much, I feel.

I’ve just got done listening to a seminar by Mearsheimer on the present state of the war with reference to the latest RUSI reporting, among other analyses. The talk can be found

I was sent it by a friend in the Royal Canadian Army along with his comments summarising a couple of key points:

Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1. The reason for this is the WWI-style static war in which artillery is the most deadly weapon. Russia has an immense artillery advantage. During an offensive the attacker will often have more casualties than the defender. But in this war the Ukraine side has been (counter-)attacked most of the time while the Russians defended.

The Ukraine also has a much smaller population than Russia. The current ratio is about 5 Russians for 1 Ukrainian. With a much smaller population and much higher casualties the Ukraine will run out of able bodies way before Russia does.

Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine. (I predicted this on February 24 2022, the day the war began. Those eight oblast plus Crimea are historically Russian land inhabited by Russian people. During the last thirty years they have consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates while the people in west Ukraine consistently opted for anti-Russian candidates.) Ukraine will end up as a dysfunctional (and poor) rump state.

Mearsheimer says that there will be no peace agreement in Ukraine. The war is seen by both sides as existential. Ukraine insists of regaining territory it sees as part of the country. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the 'west' which Russia opposes. The problem of hyper-nationalism (fascism) on the Ukrainian side also makes peace impossible. Then there is the problem that Russia, after having been lied to over the Minsk agreements, has zero trust in any 'western' word.

Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1.

Just had a quick look at his wiki entry and lets say his views appear to be sometimes quiet interesting . As for the above quote, it's certainly the first time I've seen anything even remotely like that ratio for casualties.....

Be interesting to see the opinion of the likes of @MissConductUS .

I have no expertise in this field but logically speaking, Mearheimer presupposes that Russian artillery, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissancence allows Russia to hit Ulkrainian military targets accurately to get that level of kill ratio.

In addition, Russia has focused their artillery on civilian targets and infrastructure for the most part so not sure where his extraordinarily high military casualty figures are coming from.

I think you and others who don't want a debate, need to have a look at what MN is or what the internet is rather good at.

Debate and the freedom it offers, is what separates us from the Putins of this world... there is a certain irony in not wanting "debate" on a forum thread about the war in Ukraine, i certainly wasn't under the impression these threads were set up to be a pure echo chamber & i ve not yet seen the banner "For Information ONLY that we chose to give you" thread... maybe write one up so we all know ffr?

Also, its rather dangerous to just nod in agreement with stuff that isn't accurate, is a down right lie or you disagree with.

Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1.

All the information from Ukraine is quite the opposite. In fact they tend not to release information but what they have released is that overall the ration is 1: 5 or so, with Bakhmut being considerably worse.

Western leaders have varied in their assessments but none have said a 1:1 ratio. In fact, it's simply not going to be 1:1 because Ukrainian medical care is far better.

The Ukraine also has a much smaller population than Russia. The current ratio is about 5 Russians for 1 Ukrainian. With a much smaller population and much higher casualties the Ukraine will run out of able bodies way before Russia does.

Ukraine is fighting for its life. It's not like all Russian males are going to be sent to Ukraine.

Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine.

Riiiiight.

The problem of hyper-nationalism (fascism) on the Ukrainian side also makes peace impossible.

Ok, this is bullshit. 1) its their land. it's not hypernationalism, it's defending their own land. Which, btw, Russsia gave guarentees to do too. 2) fascism? By all measures, Russia is far more fascist than Ukraine. Seen the pictures of little 5 year olds in military uniform and pre-teens being taught how to handle military guns? 3) If Ukraine settles now for peace, Russia will come back.

I've never heard of John Mearsheimer until now. A quick Google shows that warfare isn't his area of expertise any more than its mine. I haven't watched the video, it doesn't seem particularly relevant and first glance, but if I'm wrong and should watch it feel free to say why, and what I'm missing. I thought the ratio was more like 1:10?

Mearsheimer quotes:

"2022 Russian invasion of UkraineIn his 25 September 2015 lecture "Why Is Ukraine the West's Fault?", Mearsheimer stated that the West (the United States and the European Union) was "leading Ukraine down the primrose path", that the Western powers were encouraging Ukraine to become part of the West despite their hesitancy to integrate Ukraine into NATO and the EU, that they were encouraging the Ukrainian government to pursue a hardline policy towards Russia, and that "the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked."[76] In the same lecture Mearsheimer declared: "If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that.""

"Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mearsheimer reiterated that NATO and the EU were largely to blame for the war in Ukraine."

In a subsequent interview in November 2022 with the same New Yorker journalist, Mearsheimer argued that since the beginning of the conflict Russia has not been interested in the occupation of Ukraine, but only in the annexation of its south-eastern territories (the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk). The main proof of this would be the fact that if Putin had really intended to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, he would not have used an army consisting of only 190,000 soldiers. The bombings on Kyiv had and have the sole purpose of inducing the Ukrainian government and its western allies to accept the recognition of the annexation to Russia of the four aforementioned territories

This guy sounds like one of the ones Putin absolutely loves. Doing his work for him while thinking he's independent.

I think it's very unlikely and based purely on conjecture. And I don't buy that it must be true based on the Russian reliance on artillery. The Ukrainians also have a lot of artillery, and more importantly, precision artillery (Himars, Excaliber, etc.). Most of the rounds the Russians fire don't hit anything. They also don't have other precision weapons like Javelins, NLAWs and now Storm Shadows. Precision weapons kill a lot more of the enemy than dumb weapons. Russian casualties also get little or no medical care compared to the Ukrainians. It's just not a priority for the Russians.

Ukraine has largely been defending itself. Usually, the force on the attack takes far more casualties. Think of the Russian human wave attacks around Bahkmut. The kill ratio there was certainly greatly in favor of the Ukrainians. The Battle of Vuhledar is another example of Russian tactical incompetence leading to hugely lopsided casualties and equipment losses.

I had to google the organization that sponsored the lecture, as I had never heard of them. That says a lot, as I consider myself quite well informed about US politics, particularly organizations that focus on military issues.

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Committee_for_the_Republic

Their purpose is "to educate Americans about the dangers of empire.". They're strict isolationists who think that the US shouldn't be involved at all with Ukraine. So I think their foreign policy views and objectives highly color their view of the war in Ukraine. They are clearly trying to support those on the far right who oppose more aid to Ukraine.

Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1.

Thanks for the explanation. MissConduct. I guess Mearheimer's 'friends' must be his mates in the 'Committee for the Republic'.

This guy sounds like one of the ones Putin absolutely loves. Doing his work for him while thinking he's independent.

Ducks, agree with you there. He would be beloved of Putin as one of the useful idiots.

Thank you @MissConductUS. I have a relative who has gone down the rabbit hole and this is exactly the sort of thing I've been hitting my head against. It's like playing whack-a-mole.