Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Crimea 3

The book is well worth a read if you want to delve into history and processes of acquisition. Muscovy – Russia – Crimea – Tatars – Ottomans – Slavery is very much the Alan Fisher spectrum. His top publications on Google scholar, with the book I mentioned number 2:

Crimea 4

Ah here's the 2010 election result for Sevastopol. 76 seats on what was effectively a big city council. Mixed system to give a fairly proportional result. Russian Block, the advocates of joining Russia there, 9 seats. In the Crimean Republic, Russian Unity got 3 of the 100 seats of an extensive urban + rural area. I believe that both have merged into United Russia post annexation.

Prior to 2014 both entities in Crimea had local government largely by local Russian speakers, with Tatars, Ukrainians and others in the mix with parties desiring anschluss very much on the margins.

@MMBaranova

"If you look at the last fair election in Crimea (the main bit minus Sevastopol) in 2010 Russian Unity got 4% of the vote. That was the unite with Russia party of the time. 'What, wait, there's all these supposed Russians wanting to join the motherland?' Well, no. Russians/Russian speakers mostly voted for Party of Regions which got 49% of the vote."

++++
You dismiss the Russian Unity vote (correct at 4%) by stating that the majority voted for the Party of Regions without explaining what the Party of Regions actually stood for, which was a firmly pro Russian stance.

The Party of Regions which was the largest party in Ukraine between 2006 and 2014 was banned in Ukraine in Feb 2023.

But I agree with you that it is fair to say that the majority of Crimeans wanted a foot in both camps of Ukraine and Russia. But sadly became the casualty of tensions between the two larger countries and suffered being forcibly annexed by Ukraine in 1995 and then forcibly annexed by Russia in 2014.

@MMBaranova

"Party of Regions provided a tent for Russians, Ukrainians and others who wanted an independent state that looked East not West, but kept a friendly distance from Russia. "

+++

This is simply not true - yes the Party of Regions wanted an independent state but it was definitely pro Russian party which is why it was banned in Ukraine in Feb 2023.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partyoff_Regions

You dismiss the Russian Unity vote (correct at 4%) by stating that the majority voted for the Party of Regions without explaining what the Party of Regions actually stood for, which was a firmly pro Russian stance.

My post: Party of Regions provided a tent for Russians, Ukrainians and others who wanted an independent state that looked East not West, but kept a friendly distance from Russia.

...

That's me making a brief explanation of his stance, which was not firmly pro Russian. Well maybe in your opinion, but not mine.

Yanukovych was a balancer. He tilted East but would accept what he could get from any direction. Hence the friendly distance. He wanted an independent Ukraine, with Russia as an escape route if things went wrong, and faced opposing internal forces who were more nationalist and pro-Western (which obviously helped underscore his more pro-Russia alignment).

Yanukovych's Ukraine of say 2012 is in a curious place. I remember the football and the Queen concert providing an emotional boost, and politically how there had been moves under Yanukovych towards an agreement with the EU. However, Tymoshenko had been detained in 2011 and by 2013 pressure from Russia was making him back away from the EU and closer to Putin/Medvedev. There was a lot more going on of course and its history now. However, it is part of the 'how we got to this point' and is more complex and nuanced than many would like to believe.

This is simply not true

Wrong again.

Party of Regions evolved over time. It was the main home for Russian speakers in its governing era. After Maidan and Yanukovych's flight it was finished (but did reassemble in a way as Opposition this and that's from 2014 on).

The EU outline Association Agreement was agreed in 2012 under Yanukovych. All part of his balancing act. So much of the subsequent timeline from 2013 on is due to Putin/Medvedev saying 'oh no your not going further along the EU pathway'.

Don't over-rely on Wikipedia.

Thank you for your facts about Crimea @MMBaranova

I want to add my tuppence about the %% of nationalities quoted in all these charts. A large percentage of people from the Eastern regions and Crimea (as in bordering with Russia) are of mixed heritage. Myself included. Technically I’m 50% ethnic Russian through both my grandfathers and 50% ethnic Ukrainian through both my grandmothers.

Statistics such as quoted in all of the above would only include data from people’s passports. Not travel passports but internal passports which are obligatory and you get your first passport at the age of 16. You must state your nationality when you apply for your first passport and that stays with you for the rest of your life. If both your parents are the same nationality you don’t get a choice. But in my case (and in both my parents cases) if it’s 50/50 you get to decide which nationality you want to be in your passport.

I remember very vividly that I took some time to consider this, and went against the grain by choosing to be Ukrainian (in my region where most people of mixed heritage would blindly choose Russian just because it was the language they spoke).

so the point I’m making is wo’s to say how Russian those %% of Ukrainian Russians actually are? But it mattered because that’s what was written in their passports. Call me a cynic but it has always been Russia’s long term gain. Since the times of Russian tsar Ivan III (15th century) who was called “The Gatherer of Russian lands” - perhaps. By calling people Russian you can then claim the territory they live on. Modern Russia is just the same as we can plainly see.

Is it possible that those who might previously identified as Russian in the Donbass and Crimea having seen the behaviour of the Russian Army over the past year, might now be less inclined to what to be part of that?

I don’t read this thread for a “debate”. It’s not a debate. It’s facts, evidence and opinions, and I make my own mind up about which bits I agree with, which facts and evidence I trust and which I don’t. I don’t often contribute, because I don’t know enough, but I so appreciate those who do and have something useful to say. I don’t appreciate those who mischaracterise it with a sophisticated and almost “meta” derailment, which is what I think has been going on recently.

@MissConductUS

Thank you for mentioning the Telegraph’s podcast interview with General Ben Hodges. What an inspiring man and giver of hope. It really is well worth a listen.

@Mb76 Myself included. Technically I’m 50% ethnic Russian through both my grandfathers and 50% ethnic Ukrainian through both my grandmothers.

Exactly, none of it is clear cut. If Russian is your first language, does that mean your ancestors were settlers? Ukrainians who Russified? Ilya Ponomarenko has a good family tale on Ua > Ru > Ua at home over the generations. A Jew who becomes President? You have mixed heritage? Yanukovych for instance seems to be Belarussian, Russian and Polish.

On current Russification from this morning's feed:

Last night I was reminded of a seminar contribution I made during my Masters course (I was an International Relations / GeoPol kid as you might have guessed) on the backgrounds and motivations of someone currently active on 'the stage'. I chose Yanukovych. It must have been 2012.

Anyway, I'll probably be off the site until after the weekend. I'm taking mini-me to Ireland to be fussed over by relatives and connect with those roots. One of the relatives has a now long term Ukrainian temporary lodger, so that's a path that will cross. In the summer mini-me would have gone to Ukraine for a couple of weeks, but that's not going to happen.

"Putin is most certainly not a pleasant character but there have been a lot more brutal leaders in Russia in recent history."

More brutal yes, and might be again. But Putin is unsurpassed for manipulation in a way that no other leaders have been, as far as I am aware (I have not studied the history of Russia in detail!). He has, as far as I can see, extended discord, strife and trouble in all directions politically and in Russia economically. I think the economic problems were less deliberate than incidental but I have no doubt at all that he actively plays people to further his goals. Im told his favourite situation is when someone is doing his work for him, but thinks they are working independently.

So I don't know if someone else might be more brutal. There's likely a good chance. But since his affinity for malicious manipulation is the best in Russia (hence why he's at the top) I'm hoping the next one will keep his brutality to his own land and not elsewhere ... especially as the West will be re-arming now.

@jgw1 Is it possible that those who might previously identified as Russian in the Donbass and Crimea having seen the behaviour of the Russian Army over the past year, might now be less inclined to what to be part of that?

I wonder this too.

Based on my experience with family/ friends - this would be a NO. They don’t see it like that. They are told that it’s Ukraine attacking them and they firmly believe it. The old “8 years of Dombas being bombed” is still strong, it’s by now an ingrained belief. Dombas being the deliberate spelling as a word play of Don bas and Bomb

Others have invaded and brutalized other countries by force. Putin has created, fostered and accelerated rot from within beyond his borders.

Not always the case of ancestors being settlers. More like Russian language being official language of the USSR. In big cities like Donetsk Russian would always prevail because so many nationalities were encouraged to move there to help with growing the industry (coal mining and metal works mainly) that the only common language was Russian.

I mentioned yesterday the latest episode of the Foreign Office with Michael Weiss, I just finished it off this morning and Jennifer made, what I think it a really concise and clear argument against negotiations at this point.

Firstly you have 2 sides that fundamentally have no interest in negotiating with each other and, as we have seen from the Middle East, peace is unlikely to be able to be successfully imposed on them.

Secondly its important to consider what we mean by 'peace'. If peace means that the drones stop falling on Kyiv then that may well be achievable if the 'annexed' territories are handed over - though of course there is the risk that Putin takes any ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup and to try again.

Of course we know from Bucha and Irpin etc. that Russian occupation is brutal. Any negotiation that ends with Russia retaining control of Ukrainian territory essentially abandons those Ukrainians left living under occupation to the most unimaginable existence.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine.
• The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war. [Dutch open-source group Oryx reported on May 29 that it confirmed that Russia has lost over 2,000 tanks and 2,366 infantry fighting vehicles (including over 850 BMPs) since the war began]
• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack south of Kreminna.
• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30.
• Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
• Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in Russia.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.

• Expanded: Putin also accused Ukraine of threatening to destabilize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and using “dirty devices” – both default Russian false narratives that the Kremlin uses during Russian military failures]

She also makes the point that, whilst many in the UK (where she is based) might complain about the cost to the US of supporting Ukraine, its less than 5% of the current defence budget - that's frankly a miniscule amount to essentially defeat what has been considered to be America's biggest threat for many years.

About the Oryx figure-claims - Oryx have recently stated they believe the actual Russian losses to be considerably higher but they count only visually confirmed losses

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Kuleba: African tour set to ensure support for Ukraine’s UN resolutions (kyivindependent.com/kulebas-africa-tour-to-ensure-support-for-ukraines-un-resolutions/).
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said late on May 29 that he is seeking support for Ukraine’s UN General Assembly resolutions and hoping to isolate Russia internationally.

⚡️Power outages reported in several Ukrainian regions (https://kyivindependent.com/power-outages-reported-in-several-ukrainian-regions-ukrenergo-pledges-to-restore-supply-in-coming-hours/), Ukrenergo pledges to restore supply 'in coming hours.'

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: State arms brokers failed to fulfill defense contracts worth $242 million amid war (https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-3/)
Four state-owned enterprises tasked with procuring arms for the military after the full-scale invasion failed to deliver Hr 8.9 billion ($242 million) worth of weapons and ammo after receiving the money, Ukrainska Pravda found; Eduard Fedorov, the acting head of Ukraine’s Economic Security Bureau, which investigates economic crimes, concealed his real estate, cars, motorbikes, and businesses by registering them under the names of his family members, Bihus.Info investigative media outlet found; and more.

⚡️Media: Italy to deliver (https://kyivindependent.com/media-italy-to-deliver-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/) new military aid package for Ukraine.
The package’s contents and details on the transfer are classified, but there are speculations Rome would focus on providing additional air defense capabilities.

What will it take for Ukraine to maintain and operate the M1 Abrams (https://kyivindependent.com/what-will-it-take-for-ukraine-to-maintain-and-operate-the-m1-abrams/)?

⚡️Russian PM: Nearly 1.5 million Ukrainians in occupied territories given (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-claims-more-than-one-million-ukrainians-have-russian-passports-occupied-territories/) Russian passports.
The Russian Internal Affairs Ministry claimed in early February that over 8,000 residents of occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts applied "daily" for Russian citizenship. However, Ukrainians in the occupied territories who refuse Russian citizenship are often threatened with deportation or with being forcibly mobilized into the Russian military.
⚡️General Staff: Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast threaten to withhold wages (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-proxies-in-luhansk-oblast-threaten-to-withhold-wages-of-workers-who-refused-to-accept-russian-passports/) of workers who refuse to accept Russian passports.

⚡️IMF reaches agreement (https://kyivindependent.com/imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-ukrainian-officials-regarding-900-million-tranche/) to lend $900 million to Ukraine.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on May 30 that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Ukrainian officials that could lead to the disbursement of a $900 million tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement.

⚡️Polish president establishes commission for investigating ‘Russian influence (kyivindependent.com/polish-president-supports-commission-for-investigating-russian-influence/).’
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda signed the act on the creation of a state commission for investigating Russian influence in the country, the Polish media reported on May 29.

⚡️Blinken announces new US sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-announces-new-us-sanctions-targeting-russias-use-of-iranian-attack-drones/) targeting Russia’s use of Iranian attack drones.
The sanctions package, set to be announced on May 31, will also aim to counter Russian disinformation, Blinken said at a news conference during his visit to Sweden.

⚡️Ukraine's parliament lowers (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-lowers-maximum-conscription-age-for-military-service/) enlistment age for young adults.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, voted in favor of proposed legislation to lower the maximum age of military enlistment for young adults from 27 to 25, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported on May 30.
The conscription of young adults aged 18 or older in Ukraine is different from military mobilization during war, which is also often called conscription.Young adults are trained at military bases but are not sent to the frontline usually. On the other hand, military mobilization during war applies to men aged up to 60.

⚡️Russian authorities detained Ukrainian woman (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-detained-ukrainian-woman-helping-to-return-children-from-russian-occupied-territories/) helping to return children from Russian-occupied territories.

⚡️Parliament adopts law to allow insurance against war (https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-adopts-law-to-allow-insurance-against-war-risks/)risks.
The law expands the capabilities of the Export Credit Agency, allowing it to insure both domestic and foreign investments against the risks caused by armed aggression or terrorism.

⚡️Georgian PM blames (https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-pm-blames-russian-invasion-on-ukraines-nato-aspirations/) Russian invasion 'partly' on Ukraine's NATO aspirations.

⚡️Ukraine's newly-appointed Education Minister renounces his academic title (https://kyivindependent.com/education-pm-renounces-his-academic-titles/) after scandal

⚡️Zelensky urges (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-expresses-wish-for-south-korea-to-provide-air-defense/) South Korea to provide air defense systems to Ukraine.

⚡️ Politico: Wagner Group uses (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-wagner-group-uses-twitter-facebook-to-enlist-people-to-help-its-combat-operations/) Twitter, Facebook to enlist people for combat operations.
The Kremlin-backed private mercenary Wagner Group has been using social media to recruit drone operators, medics, and psychologists to participate in combat operations, including against Ukraine, Politico reported citing exclusive research.

According to data from Chartbeat, Twitter's role as a traffic source for publishers' websites has been declining. Small publishers, like Kyiv Independent, have been particularly affected.
We have seen the biggest Twitter traffic decline since Elon Musk’s takeover of the platform, with referrals from Twitter as a share of our page views falling by 61% between September 2022 and April this year.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️IAEA chief presents deal (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-presents-deal-to-protect-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/) to protect Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi presented an updated agreement to protect the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at a May 30 meeting of the UN Security Council.

The agreement outlines five principles to help prevent a nuclear accident at the plant occupied by Russian troops over a year ago. Grossi said he had identified these principles in consultations with Ukraine and Russia and asked both sides to adhere to them.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The largest aviation exercises in the history of NATO will take place in Germany, — Spiegel
The Air Defender 2023 exercise will be held under the leadership of Germany from June 12 to 23. Almost all maneuvers — 90% — are planned over the territory of Germany and over the coastal areas of the North and Baltic seas.
About 250 planes and helicopters will take part in the exercise, including about a hundred from the US Air Force.

Ukraine received about 60 Leopard 2 tanks from the allies, — Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov in an interview with the Funke media group. The tank coalition includes Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Portugal, Spain, and Canada.
"So far, we have received about two battalions of 30 tanks each, that is, about 60 units," the minister said.

Today, the Belarusian military began training, during which they will practice launching missile strikes. This is reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Republic

Rishi Sunak goes to Biden to discuss military support for Ukraine.
This will be Sunak's first official visit as head of government

Kyiv may allow the transit of Russian ammonia through its territory under guarantees of stable operation of the grain agreement from the UN and Moscow, — Reuters [Ru's delaying tactics have worked]

The bipartisan deal to prevent a debt default will not limit the ability of the Biden administration to provide more aid to Ukraine, a White House official said in a comment to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.

South Africa introduced diplomatic immunity at the BRICS summit, where Putin was invited, — Bloomberg with reference to the government bulletin.
But they emphasized that the immunities do not cancel the warrants issued by the international court against any conference participant.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin are planning visits to Türkiye after Erdogan's inauguration, — Hürriyet newspaper.

An office of BAE Systems, one of the world's largest defense enterprises, will open in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy said.

Since the beginning of the invasion, Russia has attacked Ukraine's health care system more than a thousand times. — WHO

All children were evacuated from Bakhmut, then Toretsk
Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, announced this at a briefing. He also reported that 130 children had already been forcibly evacuated from the front line.

According to him, there are currently 266 children in the settlements of the Toretsk community.

"Ukraine is provoking us to mirror actions, let's see what to do about it," — Putin on the drone attack on Moscow

🤡 Russia declared "wanted" Valerii Zaluzhnyi, head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Russia expects that the IAEA will condemn the actions of Kyiv, which has repeatedly brought the world to the brink of a nuclear incident, said Nebenzya, permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN.

On May 23, the first Diia in DC Summit took place in Washington.
Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Development of Education, Science, and Technology—Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov presented the achievemen

Any official in Great Britain can be considered a "legitimate military target", said the main drunkard of all Russia, Dmitry Medvedev

The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, promised "revenge in the full sense of the word" for the recent drone strike on Moscow

The first confirmation of the loss of the Russian PBU 55K6E of the S-400 complex.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Powerful explosions were heard in occupied Melitopol, after which black smoke rose in the area of the occupied Avtokolorlit plant, which the enemy turned into a military base, - Mayor Ivan Fedorov

A Russian military base in Yur'ivka, near Mariupol, was destroyed two days ago. Amusing commentary from a local complaining about the lack of air defence.

For the second time this month, the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed that a Patriot air defense system was allegedly destroyed in Kyiv. He did not provide any evidence. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat denied Shoigu's claims and said the system was intact.

Kuleba addressed the 31 NATO foreign ministers on the eve of their informal meeting in Oslo and outlined three steps for a successful summit in Vilnius.

Lukashenko dismissed the chief border guard of Belarus, Anatoliy Lapo, and sent him to the reserve. He appointed Konstantin Molostov, who had been the head of the Hrodna Border Guard Group, as the new head of the State Border Committee.

🇵🇱In Poland, Foreign Ministry spokesman Łukasz Jasina was put on indefinite leave because of his statement about the Volyn tragedy and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
This refers to an interview (https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/rzecznik-msz-o-wolyniu-ze-strony-ukrainskiej-brakuje-zrozumienia/bxxfp00) with Łukasz Jasina for the Polish media outlet Onet, which was published on May 19. In it, he said that Zelensky should apologize for the Volyn tragedy and "take more responsibility for it."

One of the world's largest defense companies, BAE Systems, will open an office in Ukraine. This was discussed at an online meeting between Zelensky and the company's management. In the future, repair bases and production will be opened.
▪️The British multinational BAE Systems is a manufacturer of M2 and M3 Bradley armored fighting vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, M109 Paladin and Archer self-propelled howitzers, M777 howitzers, Challenger tanks, and more. The company is also a major partner in the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet program.

🇭🇺 Hungary has asked (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-asks-eu-extend-import-curbs-grains-ukraine-least-until-end-2023-2023-05-31/) the EU to extend restrictions on imports of Ukrainian grains and oilseeds for five Eastern European countries until at least the end of 2023 [fuck off Hungary]

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged citizens not to go out on balconies and streets during drone attacks. At night, a woman was killed in a house in the Holosiivskyi district who went out on the balcony to watch the air defense system.

Russians have already started making medals "For the liberation of Artemivsk." (Bakhmut)

Support for Russia is falling, and now in no region of the world does it rise above 35% of the population.
[How reliable the infographics are, I dunno]

This is what I meant by a balanced debate but I fear it will not be well received

Well, it wasn’t to vilify @1dayatatime so thank you for your response. Yes it was a derail but actually resulted in some interesting and nuanced discussion about Crimea. Welcomed because there is so much surface ‘headline’ propaganda that gets disseminated.

As @MMBaranova and @Mb76 speak with personal experience, along with independent reading of Russia’s role in the region, I’m inclined to, on balance, accept those understandings of Crimean politics vs what appeared to be sources from Wikipedia. Unless, @1dayatatime has other sources?

Otherwise, thanks as always to @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar for the updates.