Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-29-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.
• Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.
• Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.
• Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Official: 100 soldiers killed (https://kyivindependent.com/official-100-soldiers-killed-in-strike-on-temporary-russian-base-near-mariupol/) in strike on temporary Russian base near Mariupol.
About 100 Russian soldiers were killed, and over 400 were injured in a strike on a former healthcare facility in the village of Yurivka near Mariupol, exiled Advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko reported on May 29.
Four buses with Russian military personnel had arrived at the temporary base a day before, Andriushchenko said, citing local partisans from the Russian-occupied city.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine's air defense shoots down (https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-ukraine-air-defense-11-missiles-shot-down/) 11 ballistic and cruise missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast.

⚡️Anti-Kremlin militia claims (https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-claims-to-have-reentered-russias-territory/) to have reentered Russia's territory.

⚡️Denmark to provide Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-provide-ukraine-with-another-2-6-billion-in-military-aid/)with** another $2.6 billion in military aid.
Denmark will increase its spending on defense assistance to Ukraine by 17.9 billion Danish kroner (about $2.6 billion) in 2023-2024, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in an interview with DR.

⚡️ Russia lost over 10,000 units of military equipment (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-lost-over-10-000-units-of-military-equipment-since-feb-24/) since Feb. 24, 2022.
Oryx analytical project only reports the equipment losses supported by photo or video evidence. The report writes that “the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.”

⚡️ Russian forces shell 10 Ukrainian regions over past day (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-shell-10-oblasts-over-past-day/), killing 4, injuring 45.

⚡️Putin signs ‘law’ (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-sings-law-allowing-elections-in-russia-occupied-territories-of-ukraine/) allowing elections, forced deportation in Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine.

⚡️Poland to close border (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-close-border-for-russian-belarusian-trucks/) for Russian, Belarusian trucks.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski signed an order on May 29 suspending freight traffic for Russian and Belarusian vehicles across the border with Belarus, as reported by Polish news agency PAP.

⚡️Ukraine's parliament passes (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-votes-in-favor-of-additional-sanctions-against-iran/) additional sanctions against Iran.

⚡️Moldova's President proposes new agency (https://kyivindependent.com/moldovas-president-proposes-new-agency-to-tackle-russian-disinformation-and-propaganda/) to tackle Russian disinformation, propaganda.
Moldova’s President Maia Sandu warned against the dangers of Russian propaganda and disinformation in the country and proposed the creation of a new governmental body to counter this threat.

⚡️Ukrainian parliament allows (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-parliament-allows-nationalizing-banks-owned-by-sanctioned-figures/) nationalizing banks owned by sanctioned figures.
The draft law will enable the National Bank to nationalize Sense Bank (formerly Alfa-Bank), owned by Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman, wrote Ukrainska Pravda news outlet.

⚡️Putin signs law denouncing (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-law-denouncing-arms-control-treaty/) arms control treaty.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law on May 29 denouncing the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, according to a Russian government website.

⚡️ Russia issues arrest warrant (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-issues-arrest-warrant-for-u-s-senator-graham-after-ukraine-visit/) for U.S. Senator Graham after Ukraine visit.

⚡️Russian state media (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-foreign-businesses-took/): $36 billion lost from exiting foreign investors in past year, claims impact 'minimal’.
Foreign investors have withdrawn approximately $36 billion from the Russian market over the past year, Russian state-affiliated media RIA Novosti reported on May 29.
An analyst citing data from the Russian Central Bank said that companies departing from Russia carried out 200 asset sale transactions between March 2022 and 2023. Out of these transactions, 20 percent involved assets valued at over $100 million. [this is, ofc, Russian state media with all the solid reliability of a burned fragment of ash floating in the wind]

The Cruise missiles from the night before are counted in this lot. Much lower artillery numbers destroyed.

UNITED24 Media

This morning, drones tried to attack objects in Moscow, said the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
The UAVs that caused noise in Moscow are Chinese and flew in from the eastern part of the Moscow region, InformNapalm reported. The international intelligence community noted that the purpose of such an attack is unknown.

As a result of the clashes in the town of Zvechany in the north of Kosovo, about 25 NATO peacekeepers as part of the KFOR mission and more than 50 Serbs protesting under the administration building were injured

In China, for the first time, there was a reaction to the material of The Wall Street Journal regarding the visit to Europe of the special representative Li Hui.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said that the Chinese diplomat did not propose to leave the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia for the sake of achieving peace
At the same time, Ning referred to the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who previously rejected such a possibility. [something odd going on there. The WSJ doesn't usually make a mistake like this]

❗️Ukraine returned the bodies of another 79 dead Ukrainian defenders

Biden told reporters that the issue of supplying Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles "is still in play."
Also, when asked about increasing Russian attacks on Kyiv, he replied that "it's not surprising."
"Therefore, we must continue to give Ukraine everything it needs," he said.

🇨🇿 Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Republic Karel Řehka said that there is a possibility of war between Russia and NATO. According to him, preparation and deterrence are important to prevent such a scenario

The G7 countries are secretly working on security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of an end to the war, — La Repubblica citing sources.

🥇🇺🇦Ukrainian track and field athlete Yaroslava Mahuchikh won gold and set a world record for the season at the Diamond League stage in Morocco.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez dissolved the parliament and called early elections, — El Pais.
He made such a decision against the backdrop of the defeat of the ruling Socialis

Russia has reached an impasse in Bakhmut, — The Wall Street Journal
Analyzing the available facts, the publication notes that the ten-month storming of Bakhmut led to the complete exhaustion of the invaders and deprived them of the opportunity to advance. The WSJ added that "Russia is at a dead end" and will soon lose the city it won by slaughter.

In Russia, the level of support for the war in Ukraine is falling: if the mass death of Russians at the front continues, propaganda will not help the Kremlin, — The New York Times

@Mb76
@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

"The fairest of all would be if the Crimean Tatars were invited back. It was their land before Russia started deporting them. "

+++

In reality this can never happen as most of the deported Crimean Tartars are dead:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeportationoftheCrimeanTatars

In terms of history Crimea has been:

Crimean Khanate (affiliated to the Ottoman Empire) for 340 years
It was then invaded by Russia in 1783 that held it for 171 years apart from 3 years in WW2 when it was under German control.
It was then transferred to Ukraine in 1954 to commemorate the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's Union with Russia.
The Ukrainians then held it for 37 years until 1991 when it became an independent Republic of Crimea for 4 years.
In 1995 the independent Crimea was forcibly abolished by Ukraine and became part of Ukraine again for a further 19 years until
In 2014 Russia forcibly annexed Crimea to become part of Russia for the next 9 years.

So in terms of historical claims Crimea has been :
Part of the Ottoman Empire for 340 years
Part of Russia for 180 years
Part of Ukraine for 56 years
Independent for 4 years
Part of Germany for 3 years

In terms of population and taking the 2001 census (to avoid the 2014 and 2021 census when Crimea was under Russian control) then of the population:
60% were Russian
10% were Crimean Tartars
24% were Ukrainian

That said I can read the room and recognise that this thread is all about supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and personal emotions rather than a balanced debate looking at historical or population facts.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

👀We have approved the timing of the start of the movement of our troops, the decisions have been made – Zelensky.
The President also thanked the brigades that had prepared.

❗️At night, Russian troops attacked facilities in the Khmelnytsky region. One of them is a military facility — Khmelnytsky Regional Military Administration.
At the moment, work is underway to localize fires at fuel and lubricant warehouses and storage of military materiel.
Five aircraft have been put out of action. The runway has been repaired.

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has said that his country does not need to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus, and that it does not need nuclear weapons either.

Law enforcement officers in Kyiv detained two young men who were filming air defense operations.

Death From Above, a drone attack simulator that allows you to feel like a Ukrainian drone operator and destroy Russian occupiers, has been released on Steam (https://store.steampowered.com/app/2300160/Death_From_Above/) for early access.
The game was developed by experts from Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan, Germany, and Portugal. 30% of the game's proceeds will be donated to the Come Back Alive Foundation and the Army of Drones project. [slightly grim, I feel]

Students from the Ukrainian Leadership Academy have brought Crime without Punishment, a 50-kilogram book about the crimes of the Russian Federation, to International Book Fair in Warsaw.
It has 6,000 pages that symbolise the 6,000 children who have been abducted by the Russians.

@1dayatatime Perhaps it should go to the Crimean Tatar's descendants then. There has to be a cut off line, but also a degree of justice.

Either way, it is not just that Russians who went to live in Crimea after the illegal invasion stay there.

I hadn't realised Crimea had been independent. Really that would be the best solution of all but it's very unlikely that it's going to happen or even feasible. Someone would try to gobble it up.

Out of interest, what would you suggest as a solution?

Hopefully the people who decide can find a way through.

It's really interesting to see it broken down like that, the history of Crimea is absolutely fascinating. I support, as @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar says there needs to be a cut off at some point (borders have been changing for as long as humans have existed) but it does put it into perspective doesn't it.

The problem of course with the forced deportations, and subsequent importing of Russians is that you're very unlikely to get any genuine reflection of what those who were in Crimea pre-2014 would want to happen as so many of them are no longer there.

Plus propaganda has an effect, as @Mb76 says with her relatives :/ At that point it's hard to know what to do.

Re - Crimean Tatars - sorry I meant their descendants too.

Apart from this issue, there are also practical things like the lack of fresh water supply on the Crimean peninsula. If Crimea ever becomes an independent country it would need to get water supplied from Ukraine (most logical solution), Russia or maybe invest in expensive desalination technologies.

Crimea was “gifted” by Khrushchev to Ukraine precisely for this reason, for Ukraine to supply fresh water from Dnipro river to the peninsula and to support agriculture there.

Also wanted to say thank you to everyone who confronted the troll. I missed the deleted messages but hopefully they are gone now.

@1dayatatime, that's really interesting. I have some vague awareness that Crimea is an area with its own unique history, but I thought it had been independent for longer than it has. Its going to be a puzzle to solve for wiser heads than mine, I just hope that the solution is one that works for the people who live there. They've been through enough.

Oh I hadn’t realised that LieBig’s posts had all been deleted!

@1dayatatime

That said I can read the room and recognise that this thread is all about supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and personal emotions rather than a balanced debate looking at historical or population facts.

That is unnecessarily confrontational and from the measured and interested replies untrue.

Yes there is a lot of support for Ukraine but we are not blind, stupid or purely driven by emotion.

I fact I've yet to find a more pragmatic, reliable and informative thread anywhere on the internet

talking of measured and even handed,

Ukraine Memes for NATO Teens
AT LivFaustDieJung

is pro-Ukraine but does pass a number of constructive-criticisms.

Despite the name, Raver: NAFO's official polemist, Slava Ukraini!
AT JBelcourt73 is also very good.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Firstly I need to stress that this forum is all about supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and the emotional reaction to that. It is not intended for balanced debate or dealing with historical facts. But in answer to your points:

"@1dayatatime Perhaps it should go to the Crimean Tatar's descendants then. There has to be a cut off line, but also a degree of justice. "

This is not really possible as many Crimean Tartars were murdered by the Soviets as part of the ethnic cleansing. Today only 10% of Crimea is ethnic Tartars.

"Either way, it is not just that Russians who went to live in Crimea after the illegal invasion stay there. "

In the 2021 census the percentage of ethnic Russians was 76% as understandably many Ukrainians fled. But even in 2001 before all this started then it was still majority Russian at 60% (24% Ukrainian) - quite simply because it had been Russian for longer than Ukrainian.

"I hadn't realised Crimea had been independent. Really that would be the best solution of all but it's very unlikely that it's going to happen or even feasible. Someone would try to gobble it up. "

I agree that independence would have been the best solution but when in 1995 Crimea started to lean towards Russia it was forcibly annexed by the Ukrainians but then annexed by Russia in 2014 after the protests in Ukraine. So yes you are right that Crimea is in a vulnerable position between two competing interests.

"Out of interest, what would you suggest as a solution? "

Well there are two ways of resolving territorial disputes:

1. Based on geographical proximity- like Spain wanting Gibraltar or Argentina wanting the Falklands.
2. Right to Self determination- which is a central principle in International Law and so for example 95% of Gibraltans and Falkland Islanders want to stay British.

Now in the case of Crimea the result of any such referendum would be disputed by both sides. But based on ethnicity alone which was 60% Russian in 2001 (24%Ukrainian) and 76% Russian in 2021 then it would be fair to say that the majority of the Crimean population would rather be either part of Russia or independent than part of Ukraine.

But given the nature of this forum which I mentioned at the start of my reply, I do not think this would be popular view and I expect to be criticised for it.

"Hopefully the people who decide can find a way through."

Sadly I doubt it. More likely that it turns into a long protracted war that neither side can truly win.

Erodogan wants to buy F-16s, but the US has not granted permission. Biden wants Turkey to allow Sweden into Nato. This could be the basis for a deal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-says-he-erdogan-talked-about-f16s-sweden-2023-05-29/?utm_source=reddit.com

I think the thread isn't so much about blindly supporting Ukraine as it is about being decent human beings

Good, a bargaining chip to use against Turkey. With Erdogan safely re-elected, hopefully he can stop the Koran-burning posturing.

@1dayatatime

Firstly I need to stress that this forum is all about supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and the emotional reaction to that. It is not intended for balanced debate or dealing with historical facts. But in answer to your points:

When this invasion and war started, this series of threads was meant to be informative and balanced. It was infused with the shock that the invasion had happened.

As more information came out about Russian atrocities either through (reliable) news or in the case of a considerable minority of us from our refugee guests, a revulsion has set in.

We have also had a stream of shills who pushed the Russian line either overtly or more subtly. One for instance said that "no one knows who committed the killings in Bucha, it can be the Ukrainians killing their own" and several others have pushed the "plucky little Ukraine, but it's time to give up now for the sake of the civilians". There were a lot at first, many fewer now but with the coming counter offensive a few more have resurfaced. I can provide various links if you like that this -is- a Russian operation, though I suspect you might know 'em already.

The problem with this is that we, the pro-Ukraine people, do indeed get short of patience with people who push an agenda that is not honest. This means it's extremely difficult sometimes to distinguish between someone who's posting in bad faith, someone who has a weird agenda (Liebig came into that category because without any doubt at all there was some agenda and it wasn't pleasant), a simply misinformed person and someone who is posing sometimes difficult and critical-of-Ukraine, but very valid points.

You've done this with Crimea, and as far as I'm concerned that's an asset to the thread because it ~does~ provide more balance and actually historical context. Apart from two posters, few of us knew anything about Ukraine before 2014 or 2022. So we've learned really fast, and that's one of the benefits of the thread - @MissConductUS and @notimagain with the military perspective, others with other perspectives, sometimes very clear thinking. But the knowledge gained is not perfect as we are gaining it piecemeal.

I will say that the sheer outstanding incredible lies and the brutality of the Russians has alienated many/most on this thread. No apologies for that, though it's a danger to start hating all Russians and lumping them in one basket.

Anyway, your comments did come over as a bit harsh, but I think there's some truth in them.

So personally I welcome anything posted in good faith that asks the hard questions. More genuine information and thought is good.

For myself, I am heavily in favour of Ukraine winning this war and pushing Russia back to the borders pre-2014. There is an argument that Ukraine annexed it first, but in pragmatic terms I think this is the best bet. Then from there on, oh boy, good luck to whoever has to sort that mess out.

Putin's commented on the drone attacks on Moscow

"Putin says that the Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow will “evoke a response from Russia” and “provoke the same response, Ukrainian citizens should understand this."

So it sounds like they'll ... er .... start sending drones to attack Kyiv.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

To be clear I fully get, understand and sympathise with the pro Ukraine posters on this thread that having seen their country a) be subject to an unprovoked attack b) senselessly and systematically destroyed c) atrocities against innocent civilians and combatants alike to then have very little time or patience for an "alternative" viewpoint.

So having a discussion forum that is not a balanced debate is completely understandable.

However Putin spins this it isn't good for him. Either the Ukrainians have massively breached Russian air defence from Ukraine, or the Ukrainians are able to launch this sort of attack from within Russian territory, or someone other that the Ukrainians though with their approval and possibly assistance can attack the capital city of Russia.

If I were living in Russia none of the above would fill me with confidence about my own safety.

And if as someone suggested it might be a false flag operation, being attacked by my own government because they wanted to make a point wouldn't make me happy either...

Ducks, thanks for taking the time to put in words what I wanted to say and frankly could not have explained it better than you.

1dayatatime, I believe that you still see this thread as "not a balanced debate". I won't tell you what to think or feel but IMO that sentence is a little reductionist as that phrase discounts all the nuances and context which Ducks has set out. You will find that the clever folks on this thread will engage with and in fact welcome debate (like Crimea's history) that is sincere and not laced with dubious agenda. We like a lively thread for the right reasons.

We like a lively thread for the right reasons.

yes :)

It's a shame that LieBig was so offputting as there were some good points in among the dross. But as it is, I'm glad they're gone.