Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

@Amispringy that Stacey Dooley programme was excellent.

It was well done and SD was a good choice for the interviewer.

I was expecting to see more of the training. Getting these guys physically and mentally into shape. We didn’t see the sort of training U.K. recruits get, but I guess 5 weeks isn’t enough for all of that. I guess the documentary was more about their journey to the UK and their unshakeable destiny. That came across very well.

it’s a shame they have to buy their own kit. The least we could do is kit them out as well, even if we crowd funded it.

I cried again. I am a puddle.

I was holding my breath at the end, praying that pasha hadn't been killed. I hope he stays safe

This post and the next two are about fiction writing though there's weirdly some truth to them. I looked at a couple of AIBU posts on Mumsnet and wondered 'if this a wind-up?' and then 'is this created in a generative chat program?'. I won't link to them as that might be a bit cruel, but if you wander around other parts of this site you will probably know the type of post I mean. Because I had the Edge browser open I tried the BingChat (not the much talked about ChatGPT) to generate an AIBU about 'DH and the sausages'. After fine-tuning my instructions, I think it turned out better than the ones that got me wondering, though it had to come out via the left more creative of the three options on the web page.

Then my mind went to Putin, like it occasionally does, and how he would be written about by a mid-20th Century British children's book author. While noting that it came up with Ukraine's friends sending armies and weapons, it came up with something better than I could have.

I won't post the Tale of Dimitri Medvedev in the style of Peppa Pig.

Vladimir Putin was a very clever and brave boy. He lived in a big city called Moscow, where he had many adventures. He liked to play chess, judo, and hockey with his friends. He also liked to read books and learn new things.

One day, Vladimir decided to become a spy. He joined a secret organization called the KGB, where he learned how to be sneaky and cunning. He travelled to many countries and did many dangerous missions. He was very good at his job and everyone respected him.

But Vladimir was not happy. He wanted to do something more important and exciting. He wanted to be the leader of his country. So he left the KGB and joined the government. He worked hard and climbed up the ranks until he became the president of Russia. He was very proud and happy. He made many rules and decisions for his country. He also made many enemies and friends. He was a very powerful and influential boy. He had many adventures as the president of Russia.

Vladimir Putin was very angry. He did not like his neighbour, Ukraine. He thought they were rude and ungrateful. He wanted them to be part of his country, Russia. He wanted to teach them a lesson.

So he sent his army to invade Ukraine. He told them to take over their land and their cities. He told them to fight anyone who resisted. He did not care about the people who lived there. He did not care about the rules of the world. He only cared about his own power and glory.

But Vladimir made a big mistake. He did not know that Ukraine had many friends. They did not like what he was doing. They wanted to help Ukraine and stop him. They sent their own armies and weapons to Ukraine. They fought back against Vladimir’s army. They made him very unhappy and scared. They showed him that he was not the only powerful and influential boy in the world.

There's quite a bit of crowdfunding and similar going on.

I know some ex-UK army guys have been very active on social media asking for cash and also for ex Forces types to go and raid their lofts/attics for old sleeping bags/roll mats/packs/mess tins etc that maybe didn't get handed back in when the owners were demobbed. 🤐(that reminds me, I might still have an old time expired NBC suit and respirator somewhere 😱)

By all accounts the response has been impressive, a lot of kit has been shipped east and there's been some interesting stories come back about the trips made to ship the kit itself...

We didn’t see the sort of training U.K. recruits get, but I guess 5 weeks isn’t enough for all of that

FWIW training time, Ukrainian vs. British new joiners, has been the subject of a lot of heated debate elsewhere. The opinion of many is the Ukes training is expeditious because the emphasis for them is on the essentials for combat and not on learning how to march up and down......and.... a can of worms well and truly opened.

Most of my kit is well dated. I might as well handover a Napoleonic sword.

😄😀

You could train a person to do basic emergency surgery and anaesthesia in 3 weeks if you had to. Cut out all the tiresome extra 5 years. But it wouldn’t be good for the profession long term.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-13-2023

Key Takeaways

• A senior Ukrainian official warned that Russia can reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the long run despite facing severe force generation problems at this time.

• The Kremlin has not yet undertaken the necessary reorganization of its war effort to effectively leverage economies of scale to support large Russian force generation.

• Ukrainian assessments confirm ISW’s longstanding assessment that Russia cannot conduct multiple offensive operations simultaneously at this time.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich.

• The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) on April 13 identified the individuals allegedly responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky). [very allegedly]* *

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

• Russian forces continue to reinforce and strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters continue to feud with St. Petersburg authorities and advertising companies allegedly obstructing Wagner Group recruitment efforts.
• Wagner Group are reportedly training Ukrainian children to use weapons as part of the Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement (Yunarmiya) in occupied Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ombudsman: Military intelligence (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-military-intelligence/) 'roughly knows' details of alleged beheading of Ukrainian POW. "According to their assumptions, they roughly know who did it, in what area, and who was directly involved in this, including who was directly the perpetrator." (Ukraine's chief ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets)

⚡️Bloomberg: White House to hold (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-white-house-to-hold-closed-door-briefing-for-senators-on-intelligence-leak/) closed-door briefing for senators on intelligence leak.

⚡️German media: Berlin to approve (https://kyivindependent.com/german-media-berlin-to-approve-polish-transfer-of-ex-east-german-fighter-jets/) Polish transfer of ex-East German fighter jets to Ukraine, Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets that had originally belonged to the East German air force before reunification, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on April 12, citing sources in government circles.

⚡️Zelenska, Matviichuk listed (https://kyivindependent.com/olena-zelenska-oleksandra-matviichuk/) in Time's 100 Most Influential People list.
First Lady Olena Zelenska and human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk, the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, were featured in Time's 100 Most Influential People of 2023 list.

Bulgarian FM says relations with Russia 'frozen,' yet military aid to Ukraine remains in limbo (https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-fm-says-relations-with-russia-frozen-yet-military-aid-to-ukraine-remains-in-limbo/)

Russia’s new guided bombs pose increasingly serious threat to Ukraine
(https://kyivindependent.com/russias-smart-bombs-pose-increasingly-serious-threat-to-ukraine/) (@notimagain this is the kind of article that I've been coming across over the last weeks, perhaps alarmist)
Early this year, Russia introduced guided bombs — essentially, the regular gravity bombs modified to be dropped by multirole fighter-bombers from safe distances and deal precise and very damaging strikes in front-line areas and beyond.

⚡️Ukraine's anti-corruption agency designates (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-anti-corruption-agency-designates-chinese-tech-brand-xiaomi-as-international-sponsor-of-war/) Chinese tech brand Xiaomi as 'international sponsor of war.'
Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency has designated Chinese tech brand Xiaomi an "international sponsor of war," according to an April 13 press release.

⚡️Hungary to cease (https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-seizes-cooperation-with-russian-bank/) cooperation with Russian-owned bank after sanctions.
Hungary will cease cooperation with the Russia-owned International Investment Bank following sanctions imposed on the financial institution by the U.S. Treasury, business news outlet Világgazdaság reported on April 13.

⚡️Moldova's top pro-Kremlin politician sentenced (https://kyivindependent.com/moldovas-top-pro-kremlin-politician-charged-with-fraud-money-laundering/) to 15 years in prison.

⚡️NYT: US federal investigators arrest (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-us-federal-investigators-arrest-suspect-allegedly-linked-to-intelligence-leak/) suspect allegedly linked to intelligence leak.
U.S. federal investigators arrested a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman on April 13, believed to be in connection with the massive U.S. military intelligence leak, the New York Times reported.
The New York Times has identified the suspect as Jack Teixeira, a member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

⚡️Media: Swiss government pledges (https://kyivindependent.com/media-swiss-government-pledges-additional-1-7-billion-to-ukraine-in-long-term-aid/) additional $1.7 billion to Ukraine in long-term aid.

⚡️ Ukraine bans (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-bans-national-sports-teams-from-participating-in-competitions-with-russian-belarusian-athletes/) national sports teams from participating in competitions with Russian, Belarusian athletes.

⚡️ Danilov: UN Security Council has ‘lost its meaning (https://kyivindependent.com/danilov-un-security-council-has-lost-its-meaning/).’
“It is incompatible with any logic, let alone justice, that an aggressor country and a terrorist country that has killed and is killing children preside over the UN Security Council,” National Security and Defense Secretary Oleksii Danilov said on April 13. [yup]

⚡️Slovakia becomes (https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-becomes-next-eu-member-state-to-restrict-ukrainian-grain-imports/) next EU member state to restrict Ukrainian grain imports.

⚡️Ukraine, Romania, Moldova meet (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-romania-moldova-meet-in-bucharest-to-discuss-black-sea-security/) in Bucharest to discuss Black Sea security.

⚡️Russia fines (https://kyivindependent.com/russian/) Wikipedia for second time over article about war in Ukraine.
The court fined the Wikimedia Foundation, which owns Wikipedia, 2 million rubles (around $25,000) for refusing to remove an article titled "Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia Oblast," RFE/RL reported.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

⚡️The European Union imposed sanctions against Wagner PMC and RIA Fan media outlet for encroaching on Ukraine's sovereignty and independence.

🇷🇺 China approved the provision of lethal weapons to Russia earlier this year, according to the Pentagon. The Washington Post writes that the United States received this information from intercepts of Russian intelligence communications.
The intercepts were in a file labeled "Top Secret". The report claimed that the deal was reported by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. It is not known where the Foreign Intelligence Service got this information. WP only emphasizes that China wanted to keep these supplies secret and disguise them as civilian goods. What exactly China could have already transferred to Russia is also not known for certain. [bad news indeed]

Poland's relations with Hungary have changed a lot because of Budapest's position on Russia's war in Ukraine, Prime Minister Morawiecki said.
"Instead of working with Hungary, we are working very closely with Romania and the Baltic states," he said.

The United States is preparing sanctions against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's entourage, The Guardian reports.
Congress is drafting a bill on sanctions aimed at former officials and supporters of the government, mostly associated with Orban's Fidesz party.
The document has been in the works since last year. It is likely to be submitted to Congress in May.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

In June, Russia plans to start mass production of Kh-50 cruise missiles, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.

A French general came to Ukraine for the first time and held talks with Zaluzhnyi

Due to the war in Ukraine, the Polish army is expanding the voluntary training of citizens
Men and women are reportedly eligible for 16 days of short-term military training under the Train Like a Soldier program.
The training program includes marksmanship, terrain orientation, close combat skills, and handling of radio equipment. In addition, students receive a salary equivalent to 28 euros per day.

If South Korea provides Ukraine with ammunition for its production, it can significantly affect the war's course. But for this, a more active position of the US is needed, — Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in an interview with The New York Times.

A year ago, the Ukrainian "Neptun" sank the Russian cruiser "Moskva". In honor of this event, a new holiday will appear in Ukraine.

The Russian Federation will "dismantle" the decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in The Hague, according to which Moscow must pay Naftogaz $5 billion in compensation for damages and lost property in the occupied Crimea, – the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitrii Peskov.

The European Commission concluded that from a legal point of view, the frozen reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation could not simply be transferred to Ukraine but must be returned to Russia after the war, – Die Welt citing the document.
"The political will is there, but the legal barriers are high. The European Commission concludes that the frozen stocks cannot be touched because one day, when the war ends, they will have to be returned to Russia," the article says.
Journalists, however, point out that the EU allows "extraordinary measures" to invest these funds in European government bonds with a yield of 2.6% and send this income to Ukraine.

The US government believes that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is too conciliatory with Russia, – BBC citing Pentagon documents that have become public domain.

China calls on "all sides" of the Russian-Ukrainian war to create conditions for peace talks, said the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang
China, according to the minister, "will continue to play a constructive role in promoting political settlement and the resumption of negotiations." [they still haven't spoken to Ukraine yet though!]

The Council of the EU approved allocating €1 billion to Ukraine for shells.
Funds from the European Peace Fund will be sent to compensate countries that, between February 9 and May 31, will send ammunition to Kyiv from their stocks or as part of a change in order priority.

Military medics reduced the death rate among wounded defenders significantly, – Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar.
Saving the lives of military personnel is facilitated by:
▫️approaching qualified medical aid to the battle site;
▫️properly planned evacuation;
▫️creation of a single medical space for civilian and military medical institutions.
According to Malyar, the death rate in the Russian-Ukrainian war is much lower than during the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.

When ds2 was in training (he didn't complete due to medical discharge, hence the 2 year wait to re-enlist), there was a lot of marching and discipline style tasks including drill. They did classroom work on following orders, and when/how to challenge and refuse. So recognising good vs bad soldiering.

He can pack a bag really well and polish boots and shoes amazingly well. They were taught battle formations and how to camp out quite early on, but the actual weapon work comes later. As an ex cadet, he could strip and put the gun back together before some others had finished taking theirs apart. The actual firing of it comes later still.

This was four years ago, so I suspect little has changed.

@Nooyoiknooyoik

You could train a person to do basic emergency surgery and anaesthesia in 3 weeks if you had to. Cut out all the tiresome extra 5 years. But it wouldn’t be good for the profession long term.

I'm sure it wouldn't be for the medical profession.

Problem the Ukrainians face is there may be no long term unless they get troops with adequate skills in the field PDQ trained in whatever they need to do to survive and fight.

TBH I wore the light blue uniform when serving and stopped marching up and down post basic training / pre- specialist training (the odd, very odd parade aside) so this is really one for the ex-Army folks to answer, if they feel the need to do so.

I've been lurking on these threads since the very start and want to thank all the informative, thoughtful regular posters who I have learned so much from. The only reason I don't post is that I have nothing useful to add, I'm here to learn!

On the Today programme this morning there was an interview with two former US ambassadors and I found them startlingly frank about the state of US intelligence security. They essentially said that it's no surprise at all that Teixeira had access to highly classified documents as the US shares such material much more widely than any of its allies do and has poor security, to the extent that all their allies know to be very cautious what they share with the US because of the high risk of leaks.

They also said that US intelligence is poor in terms of analysis so they don't think it leaking will be very harmful because it's likely to be wrong! They gave the example of the terrible miscalculation in Afghanistan where the US badly overestimated the government's ability to retain control, and that they tend to overcompensate for such mistakes as they did by underestimating the Ukrainian government, military and people at the start of the full-scale invasion.

Does this sound like a reasonable analysis? If so, it seems quite shocking that a major world power is so - incompetent?

All that ‘bullshit’ training was so vital. The early weeks is where the civvy you is dissembled and a new ‘we’ is forged. Going through shit together binds you. Having to remove the barrack beds at night in a foot of snow, then bring them back again, time and time again throughout the night, lockers and all gains acceptance of the extra ordinary and breaks down the notion of home.

Having scrubbed our mess tins to an inch of our lives, the PTI would throw them across the field into the snow. The only good gun barrel is a clean one. Never forget that.

Long runs, with heavy back packs, 40 miles sometimes, but over time these things are weightless. Your buddy who is failing you pick them up between them and carry them too. Your destination is what matters, nothing else, no pain, no discomfort, just the goal. These things were forged in months, not a few short weeks.

But time is not on the Ukrainian defence forces’ side. We learn from our peers, and if I want to learn from anyone it’s the British army. The knowledge has been deeply ingrained for hundreds of years.

But we also learn from experience. That’s a powerful way to learn and the only way we evolve. The young men and women from Ukraine will have to do that now.

Their country is standing on the shoulders of giants.

This takes me back to the comments of Robert Graves (or perhaps Siegfried Sassoon), about the arrival of Australian troops in the WWI theatre of battle.

The Diggers were understandably vocal that they had "come all this way to fight, not march round parade grounds and polish buttons."

Our author replied something like, "There are two types of troops: those willing to throw themselves into a fight; and those who willing to throw themselves into a fight AND who know how to bash parade grounds and polish buttons. We don't know why, but we've seen the second type do better in battle."

Upon discharge from the US Army, soldiers are only allowed to keep their clothing, and there are exceptions to that, like cold weather outerwear. The rule is that if it touched your skin, you can keep it.

Wasn't there a British soldier who got in serious legal trouble a few years ago because he was evacuated from Afghanistan and his mates shipped back his duffle bag, which contained his British Army issued handgun?

On the Today programme this morning there was an interview with two former US ambassadors and I found them startlingly frank about the state of US intelligence security. They essentially said that it's no surprise at all that Teixeira had access to highly classified documents as the US shares such material much more widely than any of its allies do

Some of that goes back to intelligence reforms that happened after 9/11. What they found in the AAR was that the attack could have been averted if various intelligence agencies had shared parts of the puzzle that they held with each other.

"If South Korea provides Ukraine with ammunition for its production, it can significantly affect the war's course. But for this, a more active position of the US is needed, — Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in an interview with The New York Times."

South Korea has a fixed policy of never providing lethal aid to any other country.

At the moment the USA seems to be negotiating the loan of many hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition from South Korea; it is not expected that this loan will have to be repaid.

Simultaneous with that loan, the USA will provide to Ukraine the same number of rounds of ammunition made in the USA and not in South Korea. Thus SK will not be providing lethal aid to Ukraine, merely replenishing the USA's stock.

With her usual keen grasp of facts and understanding of foreign policy, the idiot Marjorie Taylor Greene has assumed the USA has given so much ammunition to Ukraine that they have run out, and are having to beg for help from South Korea. https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1646263995400089601 I note that the article she quotes mentions 500,000 rounds and she says 50,000, but hey, why worry about the odd 450,000 rounds when you are talking complete BS anyway? I do wonder whether she can actually read, given the content of the article she cites....

Mironov and Prigozhin being chummy is something to watch. The former has shown how to keep going for years on the outside edge of the tolerated 'opposition' and the latter has ambitions, which surely include outliving Putin.

This is probably to do with the negotiations to release that WSJ reporter. It's still pretty funny.

Sergey Lavrov and Russian UN Delegation Denied US Visas - The US has refused visas for the Russian delegation and the Russian Foreign Minister to attend a UN Security Council meeting

It is pretty funny. Could have been even funnier if they had their visas approved and then arrested for war crimes of their country upon landing. Of course it doesn’t work like that but one can dream