Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

983 replies

MagicFox · 22/02/2023 15:03

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
145
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/02/2023 11:54

It's a good question though.

It seems like China is moving more towards active support for Russia and that is very alarming in a considerable number of ways, both for the effect on Ukraine and because if sanctions take place against China, there will be considerable economic problems ahead world wide.

Russia's actions in invading are so damn destructive!

Zuffe · 25/02/2023 12:56

China is a free agent to make its choices though.

By its own definition of territorial integrity it would be explicitly arming an aggressor if it provides weapons to Russia. That is a different ball game to weapons of a defensive nature. It opens up the prospect of Taiwan being provided with significantly greater defensive capabilities than it has received so far.

MMBaranova · 25/02/2023 12:57

This paper (hosted in a number of places), which we may well have had in a link as it is two months since it was published, is one I have returned to while mulling the lens that Putin and crew see the world through.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
blueshoes · 25/02/2023 14:56

Zuffe · 25/02/2023 12:56

China is a free agent to make its choices though.

By its own definition of territorial integrity it would be explicitly arming an aggressor if it provides weapons to Russia. That is a different ball game to weapons of a defensive nature. It opens up the prospect of Taiwan being provided with significantly greater defensive capabilities than it has received so far.

Zuffe, interesting viewpoint on the Taiwan angle, thanks.

On China's choices, if China does arms Russia, it would know that those weapons are not being used for military defensive purposes and not just for offensive purposes but also largely against a civilian population for terrorist purposes to deprive them of infrastructure, utilities and life. This would put China in same category of bad as Iran.

China could not hide it in the same way Iran could not hide it. Chinese drones will get shot down and their gubbins picked apart and suppliers sanctioned. There will be Chinese instructors communications caught in Ukraine.

It will be a terrible escalation between the US and Western allies and China in terms economic sanctions and bilateral relationships. So that China can prolong an unjust war and suffering and thrash its economy (West will suffer badly too) and slow down its developing ability to takeover China?

Seems illogical and irrational. I would have thought China would want to keep its head down for longer. I see the sense in the US is making such strong noises to China against arming Russia.

Then again, the entire invasion by Russia of Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022 was also illogical.

blueshoes · 25/02/2023 14:57

notimagain · 24/02/2023 20:50

Very long read from Politico - β€œA first-ever oral history of how top U.S. and Western officials saw the warning signs of a European land war, their frantic attempts to stop it β€” and the moment Putin actually crossed the border.”

www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757

notimagain, I managed to get through this long read. Thanks for sharing. It read like a movie script. Liz Truss was quoted! Incredible that US intelligence knew that Russia was going to invade since Oct 2021 against all rationale thought and watched the horror unfold in slo mo and tried all means to stop it. Gave a little more background as to why Ukraine seemed unprepared for it. They knew it would be a senseless shit show (even if Russia took Kyiv). It was and still is one year down.

blueshoes · 25/02/2023 15:59

MMBaranova · 25/02/2023 12:57

This paper (hosted in a number of places), which we may well have had in a link as it is two months since it was published, is one I have returned to while mulling the lens that Putin and crew see the world through.

MMBaranova, I have no doubt Putin is making decisions based on poor information as he gets increasingly isolated. He is probably being told that if he prolongs the war in Ukraine by throwing his own people in the meat grinder, he will win by being the last country standing. I cannot say that is not 100% wrong though. So many variables and so worrying for Ukraine.

The other question is how good is Xi Jinping's information? He is getting increasingly autocratic, getting rid of political rivals, cracking down on the free spirited business elite, removed any limits to his term and has stuffed the Chinese Politburo with his people. His inner circle would do well to self censor. The fear is this clouded information lens will not be good for Taiwan.

Naem · 25/02/2023 19:24

Since it is probably not most people's general reading, the Jewish Chronicle (London Jewish newspaper) had some nice articles to commemorate the anniversary of the invasion - www.thejc.com/news/world/after-a-year-of-war-the-most-meaningful-place-to-be-jewish-is-ukraine-018j8Qt2ShD9QS729RcIXj
www.thejc.com/life-and-culture/all/pictures-plus-music-a-video-to-help-ukraine-rise-again-6ukMuxCO6XqSSAtcgUUA8n

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/02/2023 20:28

Thank you Naem

We hear rumblings that Israel will support Ukraine a bit more. Is that feasible, or is it just hot air?

Greenshake · 25/02/2023 20:41

@Naem great article. That Rabbi sounds like a like a very good guy ❀️

Surplus2requirements · 25/02/2023 20:42

It's a nice counterpoint to the Russian narrative of saving Ukraine from nazis though it's difficult to understand how that has any currency with anyone that takes even a cursory look

blueshoes · 25/02/2023 20:55

@Naem the piano performance is moving. Ukraine is breathtakingly beautiful and the destruction all the more wretched and mindless.

Naem · 26/02/2023 00:14

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/02/2023 20:28

Thank you Naem

We hear rumblings that Israel will support Ukraine a bit more. Is that feasible, or is it just hot air?

To be honest, I have no idea - Israel is in such turmoil at the moment. there are constant rallies and protests against the curb of the judiciary (apparently they are estimating 300,000 turned out today, they have been building and building). An enormous amount of focus is on the domestic crisis caused by the legislation put forward by the new government.

I suppose the only thing that might be noted is that by and large most people who come from Russia or have Russian connections are secular, and are likely to be horrified by what the government is doing - so maybe the government doesn't feel they need to be beholden to them as they are likely so antagonistic and horrified by what the government is proposing anyway. I don't know how the religous public to whom they are appealing feels about Ukraine - but I would guess they are likely to be pretty anti Russian, because Russia made life so difficult for religious Jews (and I am not sure they see a difference between communist Russia and modern Russia). So that might, ironically, mean that the Netanyahu government feels it has more room to manouvre on Ukraine. Along with a) Russia clearly being weaker in Syria (it might reach the point I guess where it is irrelevant what Russia thinks about Israel attacking Hezbollah - because they no longer have the capability to do much if they don't like it) and b) becoming closer to Iran, which might again give more manouvrablilty or less reason to pander to the Russians. Might be true, but who knows - it could be the only good thing to come out of the new set up, but hard to focus on that when democracy is at risk.

EdithStourton · 26/02/2023 02:14

I follow a blog which features a US volunteer with the Ukrainian army. He's an old guy, with a lot of military experience, and has recently been 'out' - ahead of the 'Yook' front line - for almost three weeks. I was starting to think he wasn't coming back, as he's never been out for so long before.

They are trying real hard, but they keep getting busted.
and
We got out of the whole thing without a scratch. The main difference is accurate artillery. We have it, they do not.

The Russians lack night vision equipment so We own the night.

The Russians did gain some ground in that particular offensive ('too much brute force for us to stop'), but at a high cost in men and kit. The men they seem happy to replace for now, but the kit is going to prove harder to source.

Also, thanks for the new thread. I've been having laptop and connection issues so have not been keeping up.

MagicFox · 26/02/2023 08:06

@francisscarr https://twitter.com/francisscarr/status/1629433899326603264?s=46&t=NJ1e2l3Auu_IvkvOEKIWejQ

"Igor Girkin says Russia needs a Chinese "lend-lease" if it’s to continue fighting in Ukraine "with any level of success"

He complains that Russian generals led by the "cretin" Gerasimov are burning through armour at a rate that Russian defence plants can’t withstand"

OP posts:
MagicFox · 26/02/2023 08:10

Good piece by Simon Smith for Chatham House:

"One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/02/one-year-how-can-war-ukraine-end?utmsource=twitter.com&utmmmedium=organic-social&utmcampaign=ukraine&utmmcontent=end-war

OP posts:
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 08:39

@Naem Thank you for explaining the shifting currents and pressures. I don't follow Israeli politics very much but Netanyahu's election worried me and the policy on Ukraine shocked me, to be honest. Israel seems very unstable at the moment.

Talking about being shocked, I've been horrified by the reports of UK supermarkets limiting the amount of fruit and veg you can buy, blaming it on the weather. Our supermarkets here are just fine and apparently that's the case elsewhere in Europe too.

Fwiw the weather isn't the problem. The lying is very worrying.

Igotjelly · 26/02/2023 08:44

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 08:39

@Naem Thank you for explaining the shifting currents and pressures. I don't follow Israeli politics very much but Netanyahu's election worried me and the policy on Ukraine shocked me, to be honest. Israel seems very unstable at the moment.

Talking about being shocked, I've been horrified by the reports of UK supermarkets limiting the amount of fruit and veg you can buy, blaming it on the weather. Our supermarkets here are just fine and apparently that's the case elsewhere in Europe too.

Fwiw the weather isn't the problem. The lying is very worrying.

It’s more to do with the fact that U.K. supermarkets won’t pay increased costs needed to allow them to buy from suppliers using greenhouses (a knock on of electricity prices) on the continent. There was a full episode of NewsCast dedicated to it.

Aposterhasnoname · 26/02/2023 09:08

Fwiw the weather isn't the problem. The lying is very worrying.

I work for a fresh produce company in the uk. It’s the weather. Theres been less stuff produced, so prices have gone up, and supermarkets here wont pay the increased costs. Try smaller independent stalls or green grocers. They are paying the increased costs (and passing them on) so have a better supply.

Zuffe · 26/02/2023 09:20

Weather partly. Increased costs of energy mainly - in UK and European mainland. Growers did not plant before Christmas and switched heating systems off for core 3 months. This will change now external ambient temperature increases. Produce will come back into surplus in April. It is possible to grow salad in the UK in polytunnels at home. We have had frisee, endives and lambs lettuce throughout Dec, Jan and Feb. This winter has not been as good as 2021/22 though.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 09:52

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2023

Key Takeaways

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, possibly to assist Russia and China in sanctions evasion amidst reports that China is seriously considering sending Russia lethal aid.

US President Joe Biden rejected China’s 12-point peace plan as Russian sources continue to capitalize on the announcement of the plan to vilify the West and Ukraine.

Lukashenko breathed new life into the Kremlin’s Transnistria information operation by falsely claiming that opening a Transnistrian front would be in the West’s interests.

Russian authorities detained more than 50 people at anti-war demonstrations in 14 Russian cities on February 24.

Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters criticized Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu over his son-in-law Alexei Stolyarov’s alleged Instagram β€œlikes” of anti-war posts.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka and continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.

Russian forces continue to struggle to conduct effective combat operations on the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.

Russian forces are continuing to suffer significant losses on the battlefield prompting some milbloggers to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for failing to recognize the scale of the casualties.

Russian authorities are exploiting Ukrainian children from Mariupol as propaganda to falsely portray Russia as the savior of occupied areas.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 10:07

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Restrictions tighten in 10th EU sanctions package against Russia (kyivindependent.com/national/restrictions-tighten-in-10th-eu-sanctions-package-against-russia)
Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell wrote that the new sanctions package targets 121 individuals and entities, and also includes significant new import and export restrictions, and bans Russian propaganda outlets.

⚑️Minister: Guatemala to join (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/minister-guatemala-to-join-core-group-on-special-tribunal-for-russian-crime-of-aggression) Core Group on Special Tribunal for Russian crime of aggression.

⚑️Lithuanian public broadcaster raises (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuanian-public-broadcaster-raises-14-million-to-buy-air-defense-radars-for-ukraine) $14 million to buy air defense radars for Ukraine.

⚑️Landmine explosion (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/landmine-explosion-kills-2-farmers-in-kherson-oblast) kills 2 farmers in Kherson Oblast.
[Ukraine will not be safe for ordinary people carrying out their work for a very long time]

⚑️Ex-Wagner Group commander arrested (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ex-wagner-group-commander-arrested-in-norway-for-attacking-police) in Norway for attacking police.
Andrei Medvedev, who sought asylum in Norway in January, reportedly fought outside a bar in Oslo on Feb. 22. He allegedly resisted arrest and β€œkicked one or more officers,” according to the court files. The former Wagner mercenary is charged with three criminal offenses.

⚑️G20 meeting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-20-meeting-ends-without-joint-statement-after-china-russia-oppose-condemning-invasion-of-ukraine) in India ends without joint statement after China, Russia oppose condemning invasion of Ukraine.

⚑️Lukashenko on alleged Russian plans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lukashenko-on-alleged-russian-plans-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030-there-might-have-been-such-a-document) to take over Belarus by 2030: ´There might have been such a document.'

⚑️Land Forces сhief visits (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/land-forces-shief-visits-bakhmut-as-fierce-fighting-continues-on-city-outskirts) Bakhmut as fierce fighting continues on city outskirts.
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's Land Forces and Eastern Operational Command, visited (t.me/landforcesofukraine/7025) embattled Bakmut in eastern Donetsk Oblast on Feb. 25 as Russian troops try to advance on the outskirts, the Land Forces reported on Telegram. [can't imagine Gerasimov or Shoigu doing that]

⚑️General Staff: Russia intensifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-intensifies-persecution-of-civilians-in-occupied-areas) persecution of civilians in occupied areas.
Russians are increasingly pressuring civilians and raiding their homes in the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on Feb. 25.

⚑️Russia stops oil supply (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-stops-oil-supply-to-poland) to Poland.
Russia stopped sending oil to Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, Polish refiner PKN Orlen's chief executive Daniel Obajtek said on Twitter on Feb. 25.

⚑️Media: Ukrainian children showcased at Moscow event lost their mother
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-ukrainian-children-showcased-at-moscow-event-lost-their-mother-to-russian-shelling-in-mariupol)to Russian shelling in Mariupol.

⚑️CIA director confirms (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cia-director-confirms-possibility-china-may-send-lethal-aid-to-russia) possibility China may send lethal aid to Russia.
CIA Director Bill Burns confirmed that China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia in its war against Ukraine in an interview with CBS News on Feb. 24.

⚑️Media: Delivery of 14 Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine from Croatia underway (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-delivery-of-14-mi-8-helicopters-to-ukraine-from-croatia-underway).

⚑️Kazakhstan expresses support (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kazakhstan-expresses-support-for-chinese-peace-plan-for-war-in-ukraine) for Chinese peace plan for war in Ukraine.

⚑️Ukraine has downed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-has-downed-over-1-200-russian-missiles-drones-since-september) over 1,200 Russian missiles, drones since September.

⚑️Ukraine says (kyivindependent.com/) spring counteroffensive to target south.
Ukraine's upcoming spring counteroffensive will aim to "drive a wedge into the Russian front in the south between Crimea and mainland Russia," Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said in an interview with German media, DW reported.

No figures for losses released yet.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 10:12

and now they are

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 10:20

UNITED24 Media Telegram

French President Emmanuel Macron to go to China to discuss pressure on Russia for peace, β€” Le Figaro

Pope Francis now wears a bracelet with a piece of "Azovstal"

Putin is afraid that Russians are disappointed by the war in Ukraine, β€” a former general of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation
"He perfectly understands the moods of people who have lost everything because of him, so he stays away from them. Putin is terribly scared now. He understands that he is in trouble. Now he is in such a psychological state that he clings to any opportunity to win," said Yevgen Savostyanov, ex-head of the Federal Security Service of Moscow.
[If accurate, this is quite big, for an ex-Head of the FSS to say this]

⚑️The USA is trying to attract to its side the neutral members of the UN regarding the war in Ukraine, β€” The Guardian.

❗️India plans to develop ties with the EU and will contribute to efforts to end the war against Ukraine, the Prime Minister of India said. [oh aye? where's the condemnation of RUssia then, eh?]

The USA has banned the export of smartphones over $300 to Russia and Belarus, – the Ministry of Trade of the country
For this, the exporter will need a special license, which is granted in exceptional cases.
Restrictions also apply to:
▫️Fans (wall, floor, roof);
▫️ Air conditioners over $750 (wholesale);
▫️ Refrigerators over $750;
▫️ Dishwashers;
▫️ Electronic scales are more expensive than $100;
▫️ Microwave ovens;
▫️ Coffee machines;
▫️ Toasters.

A Russian T-72 shot down in Ukraine was delivered to the capital of Estonia

28-year-old American volunteer Andrew Peters died in the war in Ukraine

The EU introduced new sanctions against Wagner's group, including those involved in the attack on Soledar
The communiquΓ© states that, in addition to Ukraine, the mercenaries of the Wagner group are currently operating in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan.

Russian troops currently occupy 1,877 Ukrainian cities and villages, β€” President Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy also noted that more than 90% of Mariupol, occupied by Russia, was destroyed, and there were almost no whole houses left.

French President Emmanuel Macron called on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to increase pressure on Russia.

"365 days of invincibility": in Cherkasy, 365 cartridge cases were installed, through which sunflowers germinate

For the first time in Kyiv, the newest firefighting robot was involved in extinguishing the fire, which greatly facilitated the work of firefighters. It is worth noting that the fire occurred not as a result of the Russian hit, – the State Emergency Service

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/02/2023 10:25

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Dear subscribers, I highly recommend you watch this movie about the first year of the war by Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Komarov.
Exclusive episodes with Zelensky, Zaluzhny, and footage from the sharpest points. English subtitles available.

If China provides weapons to Russia, we will impose severe sanctions, - US President Biden.
"I had a very frank conversation with Xi Jinping on this issue. And I told him: This is not a threat, this is just a statement."

The Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate said that the Ukrainian army is preparing for a counteroffensive in the spring. Its specific timing will depend on the supply of Western weapons.
The main goal of this counteroffensive is to "drive a wedge into the Russian front in the south."

For the first time since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the President showed where he lives.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38