Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

Washington Post Telegram

—The head of Ukraine’s armed forces renewed Kyiv’s call for better air defenses during a telephone call with the Pentagon’s top general, Mark A. Milley, after Russia fired a deadly barrage of hypersonic missiles.

—On the front lines in Bakhmut, Russian fighters have taken control of most of the eastern part of the besieged city in recent days, British defense officials said, while Ukrainian forces are holding their ground on the west.

—Russia’s Wagner mercenary group is apparently embarking on a new recruitment drive aimed at transforming it into a “hard line ideological elite parallel military organization,” according to analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.

• Ukrainian forces are “doing everything possible” to fend off a new Russian push to break through defense lines, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview published by an Italian newspaper that Ukrainian troops were “exceeding” their goals to reduce Russia’s “capable personnel as much as possible” and to bog them down in “wearisome battles.”

• Energy workers were restoring power after Thursday’s missile barrage hit critical infrastructure. Electricity utility Energoatom said on Telegram that electricity had been restored in Kyiv on Saturday.

In race to arm Ukraine, U.S. faces cracks in its manufacturing might
(www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/08/us-weapons-manufacturing-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, one of a network of facilities involved in producing the U.S. Army’s 155-mm artillery round, is ground zero for the Biden administration’s scramble to accelerate the supply of weapons that Ukraine needs if its military is to prevail in the war with Russia.

The Pentagon’s plan for scaling up production of the shells over the next two years marks a breakthrough in the effort to quench Ukraine’s thirst for weapons. But the conflict has laid bare deep-seated problems that the United States must surmount to effectively manufacture the arms required not just to aid its allies but also for America’s self-defense should conflict erupt with Russia, China or another major power.

To see Russia’s secret antiwar art: Meet at a bus stop. At dark. Phones off.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/09/russia-secret-antiwar-art-exhibit/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)
ST. PETERSBURG — The meeting place to visit the exhibition is an anonymous bus stop opposite a snowy park in the northern Russian city of St. Petersburg at nightfall. There are no tickets and no website promoting the show — a secret, underground display of antiwar protest art.

A few people gather. A thin artist nods subtly and tells us to turn off our cellphones to avoid tracking by security agents.

Amid President Vladimir Putin’s crackdown on human rights activists, lawyers and journalists, Russian antiwar artists are going underground, reprising the covert exhibitions of Soviet times, meeting in secret and passing on details by word of mouth.

For some, going underground is liberating. For others it is a painful choice, as the regime stifles public dissent and portrays the war as an existential battle for Russia’s survival that only traitors oppose.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Acting Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen expects the first Leopard 1 tanks to be delivered to Ukraine in the spring.
The Danish Ministry of Defense noted that the government has begun cooperation with Germany and the Netherlands to provide Ukraine with at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks. As part of the project, Ukraine will also be offered tank training, spare parts, and ammunition.

Pope Francis says he is ready to visit Ukraine, but only on condition that he will visit Moscow afterwards [the Pope doesn't seem to realise that Putin thinks he is irrelevant]

Russia has illegally taken out 2,161 Ukrainian orphans, reports Iryna Vereshchuk, Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories.

Poland is embarking on its largest rearmament program in 50 years in response to the threat from Russia. This year's defense budget is a record 19 billion euros. The country will also double the size of the army to 300,000 troops.

Border guards of Belarus are concerned about the mannequin Valera in the uniform of the Russian army, which was hung near the border by Ukrainian border guards

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The US urged Georgia not to evade anti-Russian sanctions, – the White House

Xi Jinping should talk to Zelenskyy if China wants peace in Ukraine, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly told La Presse

The US has the opportunity to take Russia's place in the European oil and gas market, said the chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Joe Manchin, at the CERAWeek conference in Texas.

Under the pressure of the embargo and the cap price, Russia is forced to reduce oil production – in February, it became the leader of OPEC+ by this indicator.
According to a new report from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Russia produced 9.86 million barrels last month against a quota of 10.478 million per day.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC, said that the outskirts of Bakhmut are littered with corpses of Russian occupiers, which no one is taking away.
"A huge amount of filth that flooded our territory is being dug up there. As Colonel-General Syrskyi reported, all the alleys and the area around the city are littered with the corpses of Russians and "Wagnerians." They lie like no one takes them away because no one needs them."

For the first time, Poland independently imported liquefied natural gas (LPG) from the USA.

In the last 10 years, Ukraine didn’t have its own satellite and spent thousands of dollars buying data from the European Union, China, and the U.S. However, the Russian aggression changed it all. United by the cause, Ukrainians rallied up and donated enough money to buy a Finnish-produced ICEYE satellite for the country’s armed forces.
The main advantages of space intelligence is the ability to analyze the movement of enemy troops plus their tactics over time and taking images outside of Ukraine.
This data helps the army plan strategic military operations. it's helped save thousands of Ukrainian lives over five months of being in the orbit.

❗️A US nuclear bomber flew along the border of the Russian Federation accompanied by Polish fighter jets, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Błaszczak said.

Russia cannot find buyers for millions of barrels of diesel fuel, – Bloomberg

The Russians are trying to simulate a significant build-up of forces in the Zaporizhzhia region, — Center of National Resistance

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is flying to the US to meet with Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, — Reuters
According to journalists, the meeting will discuss the final details of a tripartite agreement on submarines to counter China.
“I am coming to the United States to launch the next phase of the AUKUS nuclear submarine program, a project that builds ties with our closest allies and provides security, new technology, and economic benefits. In turbulent times, the UK's global alliances are our greatest source of strength and security," Sunak said.

Greece will receive 300 M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA BMPs from the US, Rtisi Diastim reports.
Greece will likely transfer its BMP-1 and M113 to Ukraine in exchange for the purchase of M2 Bradley from the US for a million euros per vehicle.

More info on Poland's military expansion:

Poland is creating the largest land army in Europe
The British edition of The Telegraph published an article about Poland's plans to carry out a real "revolution" in its army to contain Russia's increasing threat.
As the publication notes, Poland plans to spend 4% of its GDP on defense, which is twice the usual NATO norms and is the most significant defense expenditure in the Alliance per capita.

The modernization program involves the purchase of 1,000 tanks from South Korea, 250 from the United States, 600 self-propelled howitzers, 18 HIMARS launchers, 288 MLRS systems in South Korea, more than 1,000 BMPs of Polish production, 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters and 48 FA-50 fighter jets from South Korea.

I can't understand why the UK govt is refusing to strengthen our military capabilities. Ben Wallace calls it hollowed out, we have barely any self-defense capabilities and what is spent seems to go on vanity projects (looking at you aircraft carriers) . Maybe I'm completely wrong here (I really hope so) but it makes me very nervous that our standing army is tiny and badly equipped, the airforce has about 10 functional planes and our navy is decommissioning ships faster than they are being replaced. Am I exaggerating here?

How would we all feel about bringing some form of national service back?

@CalistoNoSolo It's shocking, but perhaps you might be a bit. @notimagain will probably confirm there are more than 10 top combat planes but they will, I have no doubt, also confirm whatever we have is not enough.

I do not think the aircraft carriers are vanity projects. They are necessary. A reported £6bn cost for both Invincible class ships is equal to just three days of UK tax revenue (that is central government not local authority raises). An F-35 has a reported cost of just under £300m, which means between now and 16:00 hrs we could have bought another one. And cost is just investment in all but another name. At least it can and should be.

Good for Poland, but the whole of Europe needs to do more. We cannot and should not leave it to the US to take the lead or set the agenda. We need to avoid the Blair mistakes and avoid the Bush agenda. We need to avoid that kind of naivety most of all because that is part of this mess. The West has been caught napping. The world is changing, it always was but now it is out in the open and democracy is losing the PR edge.

I would rather we created environments where service personnel feel valued.

Quality housing. Pay commensurate with private industry. Closing down 'ambulance chasing' law firms with BD campaigns wherever UK service personnel have served.

We also need innovative armies. There is something strong in having separate European armies. It allows creativity in equipment design, personnel management and R&D. We should work with European countries, NATO and within AUKUS to create an overall 'marriage value' to what we do individually.

I don't like something that is not a choice, it's not ever been part of our military culture has it?

I suppose that the answer could be provided by making the military a more attractive career option?

Maybe I'm completely wrong here (I really hope so) but it makes me very nervous that our standing army is tiny and badly equipped, the airforce has about 10 functional planes

Last time I looked in terms of fighters that were better than anything in the Russian inventory the RAF still had well over 100 Typhoons on the books and well into double figures on F-35s delivered with something like 60 plus on order.

Not all of them will be serviceable on any one day but I can't see any credible way of reducing the number to 10...

National Service? Limited to nil use for anything in the services of a technical nature..possibly more of a burden on the Forces than a benefit.

I agree with this - showing my ignorance here but didn't there used to be loads of perks to joining the military ie they'd pay for your kids to go to private school etc? I shamefully have no sense of how military personnel are provided for/treated now

Nowadays, good. It's got its problems for sure but the world seems much less safe than even 18 months ago.

I don't feel that COVID has had the same effect. Covid hit peoples' sense that the world was a safe and steady place, but it didn't pose an external threat from another country in the same way. This war is a strong reminder that after a time of peace, conflict breaks out. Historically there's always been someone wanting to make war, and carry his whole country with him (and it is generally 'his' country, not hers). I think that national service is a good idea ... nowadays.

The world is changing, it always was but now it is out in the open and democracy is losing the PR edge.

that's a chilling thought, though accurate. I have the general impression that democracy is rotting from within in some large areas too, when you look at Trump, Bojo, Truss and other leaders who rely on lies and who cut education and healthcare to the minimum they can.

@MagicFox the UK had military service until 1960. Germany until 2011, although in the last period you could choose to serve in a civilian area et volunteering in a hospital.

that's a chilling thought, though accurate. I have the general impression that democracy is rotting from within in some large areas too, when you look at Trump, Bojo, Truss and other leaders who rely on lies and who cut education and healthcare to the minimum they can.

Very true, but this is also leading to a realisation that democracy is under threat, needs protecting and, I feel, a desire to do so. People are waking up

No inside military knowledge but I see plenty of RAF planes overhead (Brize Norton flight path). Of course it could just be the same three again and again...

Defences is what worries me. Both at national level and just the fact that house with cellars and other underground spaces seem less of a norm here compared with other countries.

I've read accounts of compulsory national service from countries that have it and am not convinced it turns out the best trained people. Maybe something like Sweden where there is national service but, I believe, you volunteer for it rather than it being compulsory (and they don't take everyone who volunteers).

No idea about making a military career attractive but then it never appealed to me in the slightest!

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar @MagicFox
I think the rot from within is right. Politics is very dirty these days both in the US and Europe. Too many are in it for personal greed and now the pigeons are coming home to roost. Are some of these politicians too thick to realise that cosy deals with dictatorships threaten our very existence? I think so.

But there needs to be a real acceptance that some of the western idealogy around sustainability need to be challenged. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia do not give a damn about climate change. That takes a back seat while they build up their own resources - and as far as Russia is concerned its likely to become a vassal state of China unless there is regime change and a pro-European 'vision' comes to power. Russia too needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Talking of which, watch Brazil become the next Cuba.

@MagicFox

didn't there used to be loads of perks to joining the military ie they'd pay for your kids to go to private school etc?

To address the later point first: the assumption was your partner would follow you around from posting to posting ( so potentially a move every 2-3 years) HMG would pay for a Boarding School so the kids had continuity of education.

Other than that you'll hear a lot of grumbles from those who served more recently than I did about the quality of things like married quarters, amount of time spent away from home, general disruption to pretty much all aspects of your life that people outside the Forces take for granted.

I know you have to expect that from a services life but I've certainly gained the impression it's become much much worse than it was when I did my decade and half plus (less resources, more over stretch) and many have found long term it is not for them or their family.

I think most politicians are low calibre. Regardless of party. That doesn't mean that they often aren't well intentioned. There are just too many who are lightweights, corrupted/able, freaks of nature and so on. Those with the best potential across the board are generally dissuaded / filtered out.

Sometimes, cometh the hour, an extraordinary person is in the right place at the right time. Zelenskyy is clearly in this category. I had previously had him down as a joker. He's remarkable.

Thank you everyone who answered, I live on the Brize flightpath too and see lots of Hercules (or the same two...) I guess I meant fighter jets. Good to hear there are more than 10 working ones :)

As far as aircraft carriers, are they useful? I can't imagine what help they would be to the US if it kicks off in Taiwan, bar a show of solidarity. UK carriers would also need UK naval support I think? Do we have this capability?

I do agree that democracy is under fire atm and its deeply worrying. I can't believe how little uproar there has been about obvious Russian interference in UK and US elections.

“Russian disinformation campaigns shows they are far more successful than one might think in spreading doubt about U.S. actions and intentions…

& Washington still has no counter-disinformation strategy.”

Fascinating work by @ivanastradner.

foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/10/us-russia-information-war-bioweapon-biolab-conspiracy-theory-tucker/

Maybe I'm completely wrong here (I really hope so) but it makes me very nervous that our standing army is tiny and badly equipped

American concerns about this have been expressed to Ben Wallace. This goes into the details as to why.

US general warns British Army no longer top-level fighting force, defence sources reveal

Out of the roughly 72,000 personnel in the BA no more than a third are warfighters. The rest are medics, logistics, training, finance, procurement, etc. That's not enough for two full divisions. Ammo is short, vehicles are old, etc. The only consolation is that it isn't as bad as the Bundeswehr.

That's a very worrying article @MissConductUS , not to mention an embarrassment for the uk govt, or should be.

Thanks @notimagain - wish I could say I was surprised, this needs to change

How I would feel isn't really the point; I am fairly sure that many of the people (in particular the non-comms) in our highly trained and professional army would very much dislike having to cope with a large number of unwilling conscripts who had no interest whatever in learning the job, and did it as badly as they could in the hope of being thrown out again.