Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

@notimagain to piggy back off MissConductUS's post, it looks like Russia is using its own gliding bombs which have a range of 40 km. Does the fact that Russia has a stronger air force put it at an advantage in the battle of the gliding bombs, so to speak?

Russian forces utilized a new type of guided aerial bomb against Ukrainian targets amid continued precision missile shortages.

⚡️Air Force: Modern fighter jets needed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-modern-fighter-jets-needed-to-counter-new-russian-gliding-bomb) to counter new Russian gliding bomb.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat confirmed on March 6 that Russia has used new 1.5-ton UPAB-1500B gliding bombs for the first time, designed to hit highly-protected objects at a range of up to 40 kilometers, against Ukraine.
Speaking on live television, Ihnat emphasized that it was crucial that Ukraine receives the modern fighting jets, such as F-16s, to “counter this threat, to protect our cities and villages.”

@MissConductUS

what are your thoughts on a 45 mile stand off distance when attacking high value targets? Does the put you far enough away at your operational ceiling to evade enemy air defenses?

That's one of many 64,000 dollar questions...the quick short answer to your second sentence is probably not....

the TL;DR is:

As I'm sure you know JDAM is unpowered so to get out to the sort of maximum ranges quoted in a lot of the media you need weapons release to be done at high altitude, high speed and heading in the general direction of the target.

It looks like the Ground Based Air Defence environment on both sides of "the line" in this conflict is extremely non permissive up to high altitude and for quite a way into opposition territory. I don't have all the numbers to hand but my gut feeling is that you'd be feeling really twitchy running in right up to your FLOT at high altitude in order to hit a target 45 miles behind Russian lines....

I've seen 10-20 miles ranges quoted for a release from low altitude/high speed. Staying low would help to some extent but unfortunately for the Ukrainians the Russian air defence fighter/missile combinations can look down/shoot down and have a decent range.

Overall if the Ukes had a 5th generation low observable fighter the above might not be a major issue but of course they don't. With their current platforms IMHO it's going to be very tough to hit something at the book maximum range inside Russian held territory. Maybe the odds could be improved by dedicated coordinated suppression of Air Defences, also as you say with regard to the bridge some targets might be better suited because of potential approach routes...

Interesting to see how this works out.

(not yet confirmed but reports of returned soldiers have not usually been wrong)

Ukraine has returned 126 defenders from captivity.

These are soldiers of the ZSU, national guardsmen, border guards and fighters of the Ukr. State Special Transport Service.

Among them are 87 Mariupol defenders, 71 of whom are from Azovstal.

Thanks, notim, I suspected it would be problem with the Russian air defenses.

I think we'll see the JDAMs in use during the spring offensive. A 2000 pound bomb has quite a kinetic effect and a lethal radius of over 300 meters. As a point of comparison, the warhead on a Himars missile is about 200 pounds. The JDAMs should be quite useful against Russian troop concentrations and defensive strong points.

The JDAMs should be quite useful against Russian troop concentrations and defensive strong points.

Makes sense, using JDAM to toss bomb from low level at targets very close to the front line from maybe 15-20 miles back should, hopefully, be survivable..

Here's a video of the JDAMs in action. Note that they come in several sizes. The 2000 pound version is the largest and is shown at the end of the video.

twitter.com/Military_oO/status/1633147333020987392

Protests in central Tbilisi, Georgia,

"In the center of Tbilisi, a mass protest continues due to the adoption in the first reading of the draft law , which declares non-governmental organizations and part of the mass media as "agents of foreign influence". It largely follows Russian legislation on "foreign agents". The President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, supported the mass protests in Tbilisi against the bill and assured that she would veto the initiative"

Thanks for the video. The 2000 pounder certainly causes a big bang. A blast radius of 300m is huge. Will be good to have in Ukraine's arsenal when they go on the offensive.

Reports, in some detail, that Ukrainians may have been behind the explosions on Nordstrom2

Seems a boat belonging to a Ukrainian company was hired in Poland, by whom is not known. 5 men and 1 woman, all divers.

The kill radius is 300-350 meters. Anyone from 300 to 800 meters away will be injured and combat ineffective. I suspect the Ukrainians will use two or three simultaneously to clear trenches and open gaps in Russian defensive lines.

The 2000 pound bomb leaves quite a crater, as shown at the end of the video.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2023

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 7 that Russian forces will have an “open road” to capture key cities in Donbas.
ISW continues to assess, however, that Russian forces lack the capability to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut to generate operational effects, and will likely rapidly culminate following the capture of Bakhmut.

Russian forces likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare.

Russian forces have likely captured the eastern part of Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutka River following a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut as of March 7.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric seeking to deter further Western military aid to Ukraine.

Shoigu additionally outlined long-term and likely aspirational efforts to restore and expand the Russian officer corps.

Russia exchanged 130 Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) for 90 Russian POWs on March 7.

Russian independent polling organization The Levada Center released poll results that 51 percent of Russians feel negatively toward Russians who left the country due to mobilization, indicating at minimum negative feelings towards those that escaped mobilization, if not overt support for the war.

The New York Times (NYT) stated on March 7 that low-confidence and unverified intelligence reviewed by US officials may suggest that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, but made clear this is a very low confidence assessment.

US Air Force General James Hecker confirmed on March 6 that the US has provided Ukraine with Joint Direct Attack Munition Extended Range (JDAM-ER) kits.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces attempt to conduct operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Russian federal authorities continue to place the onus of solving mobilization issues onto Russian regional authorities who then absolve themselves of ongoing Russian command issues.

Russian occupation authorities continue to import employees from various Russian law enforcement agencies to staff vacancies in occupation administrations.

The ISW does go into the various battlefield movements in much more detail, btw. These really are just the highlights and overall assessments.

Washington Post Telegram

• Ukraine does not plan to withdraw from Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address, adding that senior military commanders supported reinforcing the eastern city.

• Fighting in Bakhmut has intensified, involving hand-to-hand combat at times, The Washington Post reported (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/06/bakhmut-wagner-mercenaries-russia-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram).

- China pushed back against U.S. warnings against arming Russia.

• Russia and Ukraine swapped prisoners on Tuesday, according to officials on both sides.

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said a Russian reconnaissance plane was damaged last month in his country in a drone attack that was claimed by an opposition group but not confirmed by authorities.

• Ukraine vowed to continue defending Bakhmut to prevent Russia from moving on to nearby towns and cities.

• There is still no forensic evidence from the Nord Stream blast site that ties the sabotage to any country, officials said. However, a senior Western security official told The Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/07/intelligence-officials-suspect-ukraine-partisans-behind-nord-stream-bombings-rattling-kyivs-allies/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main) that governments investigating the bombings had uncovered evidence that pro-Ukraine individuals or entities had discussed the possibility of carrying out an attack on the pipelines before the explosions in September.

- U.N. Secretary General António Guterres is heading to Kyiv on Wednesday to discuss the Black Sea grain export deal with President Zelensky.

- Hungary’s government and most of its parliament are supportive of Sweden’s bid to join NATO, a Hungarian delegation said on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Less than 4,000 civilians — including 38 children — remain in the city in Donetsk Oblast, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on national television on March 7.

⚡️Lawmaker submits draft law (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lawmaker-submits-draft-law-providing-legal-rights-to-same-sex-couples) providing legal rights to same-sex couples.

⚡️Cabinet of Ministers approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cabinet-of-ministers-approves-mandatory-evacuation-of-children-from-active-combat-zones) mandatory evacuation of families with children from active combat zones.
Children being evacuated from active combat zones must be accompanied by a parent or legal guardian, the Ministry of Integration clarified. Currently, only the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast falls under the criteria for mandatory evacuations.

Less than 4,000 civilians — including 38 children — remain in the city in Donetsk Oblast, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on national television on March 7.

⚡️Cabinet of Ministers approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cabinet-of-ministers-approves-mandatory-evacuation-of-children-from-active-combat-zones) mandatory evacuation of families with children from active combat zones.
Children will now be evacuated from active combat zones.

⚡️Ukraine returns
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-returns-130-more-po-ws-from-russian-captivity)130 more POWs from Russian captivity.

Ten more German-made Leopard 2 tanks would arrive in Ukraine this week, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said at a news conference on March 7, cited by Reuters.

⚡️Hero of Ukraine Dmytro Kotsiubailo killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/hero-of-ukraine-dmytro-kotsiubailo-killed-in-action) in action near Bakhmut.

⚡️Media: Boat used for Nord Stream attacks connected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-boat-used-for-nord-stream-attacks-connected-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.
German investigators have identified a boat allegedly used to sabotage Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines, suggesting it had been rented from a company owned by Ukrainians, according to a joint investigation by the German publications ARD, Kontraste, SWR, and Die Zeit published on March 7.

⚡️Ukraine's military says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-says-it-hit-russian-buk-missile-system-repelled-attacks-near-bakhmut) it hit Russian Buk missile system, repelled attacks near Bakhmut.

Protests erupt in Georgia over Kremlin-inspired ’foreign agents’ legislation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/protests-erupt-in-georgia-over-kremlin-inspired-foreign-agent-legislation)
Georgian police used tear gas to disperse thousands of protesters who rallied after the parliament passed the first reading of the Russian-inspired “foreign agents” draft law on March 7.
To become law, the bill has to pass second and third readings. Still, given the results of the initial vote and the backing by the ruling Georgian Dream party, the legislation is expected to pass the parliament.

⚡️ Zaluzhnyi meets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaluzhnyi-meets-with-top-military-officials-of-uk-us-poland) with top military officials of UK, US, Poland.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine’s military repels (kyivindependent.com/) over 100 Russian attacks over past 24 hours.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ursula von der Leyen can apply for the post of NATO Secretary General if she is not re-elected to the EC, – La Repubblica

⚡️ The US and the European Union are working on sanctions against the Russian diamond industry, – the US State Department said

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Iraq on an unannounced visit, – "Voice of America" [Iraq is an absolute mess. Corruption is at Russian levels and

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have preliminarily identified the soldier who was shot by the occupiers for saying "Glory to Ukraine!". According to preliminary data, the deceased is Tymofiy Shadura, a soldier of the 30th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Kostiantyn Ostrozky.

Lukashenko president of Belarus announces the detention of a "terrorist of the Ukrainian special services and his henchmen" who were allegedly involved in an attempted sabotage at the Machulishchi airfield against a Russian A-50 radar aircraft.
Lukashenko admitted that the A-50 was sent to Russia for repairs. @Zuffe @notimagain [no direct link given to Lukashenko's speech]

⚡️⚡️⚡️Ukraine has returned 126 defenders and 4 female defenders from captivity, said Andriy Yermak, head of the OP.
90 Russians were returned.

🇺🇸🇰🇷 Next week, the United States and South Korea will launch large-scale military exercises called Freedom Shield, which will last more than 10 days. The exercise will involve strategic aviation, including B-52 bombers.

What has changed in Russian propaganda?
Episode from the interview with Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

.be

Hungary to support Finland, Sweden's NATO candidacies - Bloomberg
It is noted that today the Hungarian delegation of the ruling party visited Stockholm and tomorrow will meet in Helsinki. Hungary is likely to sign the ratification on March 20. The only obstacle to joining NATO will be Turkey, which will hold a third round of talks in the near future.

Non-governmental groups, which could include Russians and Ukrainians, were behind the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea - NYT, citing sources and intelligence data.
It is claimed that there is no evidence of involvement in the attack of either the official authorities of Ukraine or US or British citizens, as the Russian side has repeatedly said, or the government of Russia itself, which Kyiv and some European countries considered guilty of blowing up its own gas pipelines to destabilize the energy market in Europe.
NYT sources believe that the explosives were planted by divers who did not work for the military or intelligence services, "but it is possible that the perpetrators had received specialized state training in the past."
According to the investigation, the covert operation was carried out by a team of six people: a captain, two divers, two assistants and a female doctor. The investigation did not establish their citizenship, as they probably used fake documents.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has canceled planned meetings in the United States, where she is visiting, and is preparing an urgent appeal to the population in connection with protests over controversial bills on "foreign agents"

700 deaths, less hardware destroyed than yesterday.

Battleground Ukraine have started putting out twice weekly podcasts (previously only weekly). The additional episode will feature an in-depth interview with an expert. This week's is with historian Simon Sebag Montefiore. He's written a number of acclaimed books on Russian rulers of the past. Very interesting for a bit of historical context.

I particularly like that, even as a historian, he suggests there is such a thing as 'too much history' and that when a nation chooses the path of democracy (as Ukraine has) then any imperial history is pretty irrelevant no matter how Putin and others choose to interpret it.

Budanov link

Also some very moving pictures coming out of the protests in Tblisi. One very moving image is of a woman waving an EU flag whilst being hit by a water cannon. Feels very like the Tiananmen square picture.

Two more

What's going on in Georgia - well, one can only hope that a new Maiden will happen. Georgia's at a turning point. Fingers, toes crossed and a candle lit.

There is talk that the protests could build into something similar to the Revolution of Dignity.

This particular set of protests was in response to the Parliament passing a draft law that requires organisations receiving foreign funding to register as "foreign agents" - its very similar to a law recently passed in Russia. It is thought it could restrict Georgia's ability to forge closer links with the EU.

Lukashenko president of Belarus announces the detention of a "terrorist of the Ukrainian special services and his henchmen" who were allegedly involved in an attempted sabotage at the Machulishchi airfield against a Russian A-50 radar aircraft.
Lukashenko admitted that the A-50 was sent to Russia for repairs

That's credible IMHO.

What little evidence there is points to it having been relatively easy to fly a small drone right up to the A-50 in question, but that's about it.

The supposed post attack satellite image shows at least one A-50 that was being capable of being moved/taxied moved around the airfield and there's never been signs from overhead views that an airframe has been destroyed at Machlulishchi.

I'd guess it's possible there was a drone attack that inflicted limited damage to the top surface of the aircraft but not enough to render it unflyable.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Government of Ukraine has approved the draft law on withdrawing from the 2011 agreement with the Russian Federation on joint control of the Russian-Ukrainian border, —Melnychuk, the representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Rada, said.

The Russian invaders lost 20,000 to 30,000 people trying to capture Bakhmut, The Guardian's leading military journalist Dan Sabbagh said, citing unnamed Western official sources
According to the journalist, the ratio of the number of killed and injured is "worse than one to three."

Lithuania will allocate €12 million to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Ambassador Valdemaras Sarapinas said

Sheikh Mohammed instructed to allocate $4 million to the initiative of the Olena Zelenska Foundation to build safe housing for family-type children's homes: dozens of such families lost their homes due to the war.

❗️Thousands of Ukrainians need treatment for war wounds, – WHO, Dr. Satish Mishra, a senior WHO official.
He named fractures, burns, spinal injuries, and concussions among such injuries. It is difficult to help such people because of constant attacks on medical facilities, shortage of medical personnel, and power outages.

The US military are studying the possibility of integrating advanced air-to-air missiles into Ukrainian MiGs, but there is a problem with the compatibility of Western missiles with Soviet-era fighters, – Politico

US President Joe Biden discussed support for Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron during a telephone conversation, the White House reported
In addition, Biden and Macron discussed cooperation between the United States and France in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as joint efforts to address the challenges that China "poses to the rules-based international order."

NATO should deploy permanent military forces to protect the Baltic states, — German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius

The Russians are entrenching in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Judging by the photos on the network, they even mine the fields.

The US visit to Iraq by Austin is interesting. Wonder what it means.

Also, good article on Russia's population growing smaller www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse

Are there any China watchers that can explain to me the logic of the Chinese position? The language from Xi and from Qin Gang has been much stronger re US containment etc and a move towards Russia to create a multipolar world etc But surely China benefits mainly from its economic relationship with the West? Is this really something worth China risking? What happens if they can't butter both sides of the bread? I get that Xi wouldn't want a Western leaning Russia but that would hardly happen with or without Chinese support. It seems like China needs to balance both Russia and the US but commit fully to neither. But what happens if that balance becomes unsustainable?