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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
MissConductUS · 20/01/2023 00:21

mids2019 · 19/01/2023 23:12

@MissConductUS

Thank you for your knowledgeable reply.

If we are to supply tanks and similar weaponry to Ukraine would the weaponry be slowly built up so that there would be a time for a major decisive operation which would result in a swift capitulation in Russian forces?

from my very limited knowledge of warfare a massive definitive operation seems to an the way to victory (e.g. Operation Overlord, Desert Storm, Blitzkrieg). Without a massive co ordinated strike do you face the danger of a prolonged war of attrition and the consequent calls for some peace to end it (e.g. WW1, Syria, Lebanon)?

my concern would be that advanced weaponry drip fed may not make the overwhelming difference necessary for an unambiguous victory for Ukraine. I think what is missing is obviously air power for the Ukrainians and therefore you are putting a lot of focus on mobile tanks to break through enemy lines on their own.

@mids2019, you are certainly very welcome. I'm sure others had the same questions.

Once the political decisions are made to supply Ukraine with armor, it will go into the country as quickly as the logistics pipeline can deliver it, along with the appropriate ammunition and spare parts. Training will run on a parallel track. The Ukrainians will likely wait until they have enough tanks ready to use to succeed in their first planned offensive. Tanks are deployed in groups to simplify fuel supply, rearmament, and maintenance. A regiment might have 50-75 tanks. The number of regiments needed will depend on many factors - the expected opposition, the terrain, whether they can move off-road, etc.

You are correct. There's nothing gained by drip-feeding armor into a battle. You need to attack with a decisive advantage and move fast, as they did in Kharkiv. By staying on the move, you significantly reduce the effectiveness of Russian artillery. They can't shell you if they don't know where you are.

The Ukrainians could certainly use more air power. Precision-guided rocket artillery makes up for some of that, but there's no better friend in ground combat than an AC-130 overhead.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 07:43

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

today's is well worth reading in full as it covers the increasing efforts of the Kremlin to stop Prigozhin's influence growing

Key Takeaways

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks.

A new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus, although an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more plausible.

Ultranationalist Russian milbloggers continue to criticize the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscoring the infeasibility of the Kremlin supporting a third Minsk-type agreement.

Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as sovereign state within the Russian-dominated Union State.

The Kremlin continues to falsely promote a narrative that the war will escalate if Ukraine receives weapons with the capability to strike Russian forces in occupied Crimea.

An extremist Kremlin ally reintroduced nuclear escalation rhetoric aimed at scaring Western policymakers away providing additional military aid to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly siding with the enemies of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, likely in an ongoing effort to reduce Prigozhin’s influence in Russia.

Prigozhin’s continued use of the Wagner Group’s claimed tactical success to elevate his position is likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have officially declared that the Wagner Group does not belong in the structure of the Russian Armed Forces and that the Russian military does not collaborate with Wagner despite ample evidence to the contrary.

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Svatove, and Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Kreminna.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Klishchiivka amidst ongoing Russian offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian officials are reportedly continuing to prepare for a second wave of mobilization.

Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an IED attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 07:48

Today's ISW release also emphasises that the Kremlin cannot escalate the land war and go to war with NATO as it doesn't have the resources, despites its grandiose claims. It also calls the nuclear threats 'tired'

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 07:58

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ US asks its forces in South Korea to give weapons (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-asks-its-forces-in-south-korea-to-give-weapons-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.
The U.S. Defense Department has asked its troops deployed in South Korea to supply Ukraine with military equipment, the U.S. military said on Jan. 19, as cited by Reuters. U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) didn't specify what equipment and how much has been requested or already delivered [I believe that in fact the S Korean equipment goes to other countries, which then send their equipment to Ukr]

⚡️ Ukraine condemns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-condemns-another-antisemitic-statement-by-russias-foreign-minister) statement by Russia's FM Sergey Lavrov, who compared modern Russians with Jews killed by the Nazis during the Holocaust.

⚡️Reuters: EBRD expects (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-ebrd-expects-record-2022-loss-due-to-russia-belarus-portfolio) record 2022 loss due to Russia, Belarus portfolio.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had around $1 billion in its Russia and Belarus-focused portfolio before Russia unleashed its full-scale war against Ukraine.

9 European nations commit to upping defense aid to Ukraine as tension high over German Leopard decision (kyivindependent.com/national/german-media-rheinmetall-ready-to-supply-over-100-tanks-to-ukraine-as-tension-builds-over-leopard-decision)
Nine European nations have signed a joint statement known as the Tallinn Pledge, committing to providing Ukraine with the support that it needs to liberate all its territory currently occupied by Russia.
The United Kingdom, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were represented by their respective defense ministers at the meeting in the Estonian capital on Jan 19, while representatives from Denmark, the Netherlands, Czechia, and Slovakia were also present.

⚡️Lithuania to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuania-to-send-ukraine-air-defense-helicopters-ammunition) Ukraine air defense, helicopters, ammunition.
Lithuania’s latest military aid package includes dozens of L-70 anti-aircraft guns, two Mi-8 helicopters, and ammunition, the country’s Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said on Jan. 19

⚡️Reuters: Denmark to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-denmark-to-send-ceasar-self-propelled-howitzers-to-ukraine) Ceasar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

Meta: Azov Regiment (kyivindependent.com/tech/meta-azov-regiment-no-longer-meets-criteria-for-dangerous-organization-on-facebook-instagram) no longer meets criteria for dangerous organization on Facebook, Instagram
Exclusive: Meta’s spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent, in an emailed statement, that the U.S. tech giant, owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, no longer designates Azov Regiment as a “dangerous organization.”
Azov Regiment members will be allowed to have accounts on Meta platforms, while content posted by other users about Azov Regiment will no longer be removed.

⚡️Israeli media: Foreign minister Cohen (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/israeli-media-foreign-minister-cohen-to-visit-ukraine) to visit Ukraine.

⚡️Polish media: Hungary blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/polish-media-hungary-blocks-500-million-euro-eu-military-aid-package-for-ukraine) 500 million euro EU military aid package for Ukraine.
Hungary has blocked half a billion euros worth of in military aid in the seventh such package allocated to Ukraine as part of the European Peace Facility, a high-ranking E.U. diplomatic source told the Polish RMF FM.

⚡️IAEA: "Dramatic reduction" in Ukrainian staff (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-dramatic-reduction-in-ukrainian-staff-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-threatens-safety) at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant threatens safety.
The number of employees has dropped from around 10,000 before the Russian occupation to 3,000 or less, International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi said at a media briefing in Kyiv on Jan. 19.

⚡️Study: Under 9% of Western companies withdrew (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/study-under-9-of-western-companies-withdrew-operations-from-russia-after-invasion-of-ukraine) operations from Russia after invasion of Ukraine.
The researchers from the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland calculated that at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G7 companies were active in Russia. Less than 9% of them withdrew at least one daughter company from Russia’s market.

Explainer: What we know about helicopter crash that killed children, top officials (kyivindependent.com/national/explainer-what-we-know-about-helicopter-crash-that-killed-children-top-officials)

⚡️ Biden administration announces $2.5 billion security assistance package (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/biden-administration-approves-2-5-billion-security-assistance-package-for-ukraine) for Ukraine.
The latest package includes 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 90 Strykers armored vehicles, 53 mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPS), eight Avenger air defense systems, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, and artillery rounds, among other equipment, the Pentagon said.

⚡️ UN to allocate around $4 million for demining (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-to-allocate-4-million-for-demining-of-mykolaiv-oblast) of Mykolaiv Oblast.

⚡️ CIA director makes unannounced visit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cia-director-makes-unannounced-visit-to-kyiv) to Kyiv.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 08:08

Zelenskyy met with Pres. of the European Council Charles Michel, spoke with the United Arab Emirates who have sent humanitarian help, met Gossi of the IAEA.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 08:27

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Iran does not recognize Crimea and the temporarily occupied territories of four regions of Ukraine as Russian, – the head of the country's Foreign Ministry, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
Despite "excellent relations with Moscow", Iran recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, he stressed.

🇩🇰Denmark is transferring ALL its Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of the country reports. A total of 15 such machines were currently in Denmark's service, and 4 more were waiting for delivery from France.
But now they will all go to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukrainian infantrymen are studying in Britain as part of the Orbital mission, — the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Mission instructors have already trained more than 22,000 Ukrainian servicemen.

All EU countries, with the possible exception of Hungary, will get rid of energy resources from Russia by the end of the year, — head of EU diplomacy Borrell

"Either we will immediately receive Germany's consent, or we will do it ourselves," said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki about the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

❗️The United States plans to begin transferring some of Russia's confiscated assets to Ukraine, said Andrew Adams, head of the US Department of Justice's Task Force on the Identification and Seizure of Russian Assets.

[Worrying]
"Judging by the information I received even before the start of a large-scale war, Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack," – Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev in an interview with Glavkom
"The Russian President is ready to take a nuclear step on a smaller or larger scale. Although under ideal conditions he would not want to use this last argument in a war with Ukraine. In this case, any sense of seeking social justification for Russians will disappear. The narrative about helping the "brotherly people" will then simply completely self-destruct.
In addition, the Russian leader is seriously considering the possibility of a nuclear strike on Poland. And he will eventually do it if he has no other choice. He is capable of this," said Grozev.

Anti-aircraft complexes "Pantsir-S1", which can intercept drones, are probably located on the roofs of the Ministry of Defense and several other buildings in Moscow. Photos of the installations are distributed by the Russian public and mass media. [it was announced this would happen a couple weeks ago]

The Netherlands is ready to pay for Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said
Deliveries should be made within the framework of a broad coalition of European and NATO allies.
Earlier, the Netherlands already gave money for T-72 tanks from the Czech Republic.

Moldova has asked its allies for air defense systems, as Russian missiles are increasingly mistakenly coming on its territory, – President Maia Sandu.

The Pentagon does not see the possibilities of the Russian army for a new offensive, and the new aid to Ukraine will change the dynamics on the battlefield, – Colonel of the US Army, adviser to the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dave Butler in an interview with Radio Liberty.
"Nevertheless, the currently available data does not mean that the Russian command will not try to advance with unprepared troops again, because there have already been such precedents.

The United States has asked six countries in Latin America to transfer military equipment purchased from Russia to Ukraine and offered to replace this arsenal with American weapons, General Laura Richardson, head of the US Southern Command, said.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, these are Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, and Brazil.
Richardson also added that due to the imposed sanctions, operators of Russian military equipment in Latin America are experiencing difficulties in obtaining spare parts from Russia to maintain the combat capability of equipment, military complexes and aircraft

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 08:29

From UNITED24 weopons donations summarized.

New military assistance to Ukraine. Highlights for January 19:

🇵🇱Poland will transfer S-60 complexes and 70 thousand ammunition;

🇬🇧Britain will provide 600 Brimstone missiles;

🇱🇻Latvia will transfer the Stinger air defense system, two Mi-17 helicopters, UAVs, and will conduct training for two thousand Ukrainian militaries;

🇪🇪Estonia will donate dozens of FH-70 and D-30 howitzers, hundreds of anti-tank grenade launchers, thousands of 155-mm ammunition;

🇩🇰 Denmark will give Ukraine 19 Caesar self-propelled guns;

🇸🇪Sweden will transfer the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle, Archer self-propelled guns, and NLAW anti-tank systems;

🇩🇪Germany will give Ukraine two TRML-4D radars;

🇨🇿Czech Republic will help in the maintenance of already provided equipment.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 08:45

just released

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Igotjelly · 20/01/2023 08:50

❗️Iran does not recognize Crimea and the temporarily occupied territories of four regions of Ukraine as Russian, – the head of the country's Foreign Ministry, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
Despite "excellent relations with Moscow", Iran recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, he stressed.

This is really interesting.

MagicFox · 20/01/2023 09:23

Well...that's a surprise

OP posts:
Alexandra2001 · 20/01/2023 09:36

So many factions in Tehran & actions speak louder than words, their weapons support for Russia has killed so many Ukrainians and caused untold suffering... i wouldn't believe a word they say or take any notice of their lies.

Find out soon if Germany will realise the threat facing Europe and if Europe actually has the Leopards to send Ukraine in significant numbers (300?)

Bare in mind, remove Turkey and Switzerland and that leaves around 1500 in Europe (Eurostat.eu) how many of those are ready to ship, then 1000s to be trained to crew and maintain.....

MissConductUS · 20/01/2023 10:44

Bare in mind, remove Turkey and Switzerland and that leaves around 1500 in Europe (Eurostat.eu) how many of those are ready to ship, then 1000s to be trained to crew and maintain.....

@Alexandra2001 I couldn't find any data on Euorstat regarding tank inventories. Can you provide a specific link?

Regarding the training, they'll start with tank crews that only need familiarization training with the new tanks, not soldiers right out of basic training who know nothing about armored warfare.

Alexandra2001 · 20/01/2023 11:04

MissConductUS · 20/01/2023 10:44

Bare in mind, remove Turkey and Switzerland and that leaves around 1500 in Europe (Eurostat.eu) how many of those are ready to ship, then 1000s to be trained to crew and maintain.....

@Alexandra2001 I couldn't find any data on Euorstat regarding tank inventories. Can you provide a specific link?

Regarding the training, they'll start with tank crews that only need familiarization training with the new tanks, not soldiers right out of basic training who know nothing about armored warfare.

Found it via a Google search but the TIME article you linked too yesterday also says 2000 leopards in Europe.

Not eurostat.. sorry.
ecfr.eu/article/the-leopard-plan-how-european-tanks-can-help-ukraine-take-back-its-territory/

Yes very true on familiarisation, is the Leopard more complex than a T72?

MissConductUS · 20/01/2023 11:35

The Leopard is more complex, but all tanks have the same essential components - a fire control system, an autoloader, optics for sighting, etc. And the current tank crews already understand tank tactics and maneuver warfare. So the familiarization isn't trivial, but it's not that challenging.

A good historical precedent is the introduction of HIMARS last June. Ukrainian artillery troops were already operating the Russian Grad missile launcher and came up to speed quite quickly on the operation of the more sophisticated HIMARS. Nato weapons systems are designed to be easy to operate, which makes them more expensive but more effective in combat. The comparable Russian systems are designed to a lower standard.

Alexandra2001 · 20/01/2023 12:12

Unbelievably, the factory that makes the bespoke ammunition for chally 2's is shut down.....

Yes the Ukrainians have proved themselves to be extremely adaptable.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 13:55

Maria Drutska 🇺🇦
@maria_drutska
·
1h
The German government does not object to Poland sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/01/2023 14:23

Maria Drutska 🇺🇦
@maria_drutska
·
2h
The Netherlands is willing to supply Ukraine with F-16s if Ukraine asks for it. [source not supplied, yet, but she's generally accurate]

Igotjelly · 20/01/2023 15:08

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
1m
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has announced a spring package of military aid to Ukraine worth more than €1 billion.
The package will include 40 Marders, 7 Gepards, additional guided missiles for the Iris-T air defense system, and another Iris-T air defense system.
Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
1m
No tanks….

No great surprise but still disappointing.

prettybird · 20/01/2023 15:18

Key thing though is that Germany is apparently not objecting to Poland giving Ukraine Leopard tanks though Smile

Although I suspect that was the Polish PM calling Sholz's bluff: what was Germany going to do to punish Poland if they'd provided Ukraine tanks without German permission? Hmm Refuse to sell them more or refuse to maintain their remaining ones? And then leave themselves vulnerable, as Poland is the buffer between them and Russia Confused

notimagain · 20/01/2023 16:01

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

The Netherlands is willing to supply Ukraine with F-16s if Ukraine asks for it. [source not supplied, yet, but she's generally accurate]

Sadly most of their fleet is pretty elderly, and very much in run down mode as it is being replaced by the F-35...for context see para 1 of this:

english.defensie.nl/topics/f-35-to-the-netherlands

Also the aircraft type itself is perhaps not the best fit for the sort of environment the Ukraine Air Force has found itself operating in.

Nevertheless I'm sure it's an offer that is gratefully received and will be considered.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 20/01/2023 16:15

I thought these might have finished with the resignation but here's yesterdays and at the end it says the next live stream is on the 21st which will be translated and posted on Twitter on the 22nd.

Day 330, January 19th. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 20 January 2023

⚡️️Battlefield overview
Russia keeps attacking Bahmut, resulting in heavy losses and an increasing number of Russian POWs. Russia is regrouping in other parts of the frontline, but the reinforcements are not numerous (1-2 BTG). Ukraine is defending its current positions, exhausting Russian forces and accumulating resources for the next counteroffensive.

⚡️Bahmut, Soledar, Avdiivka & Mariinka
Heavy battles continue near Bahmut. Russia has concentrated its regular troops, elite Wagner troops and mobilized near Bahmut. Ukrainian infantry is keeping the defence perimeter and the number of Russian POWs is increasing lately, suggesting that Russian infantry attacks are failing.

⚡️Zaporizhzhja
Russia is trying to move Ukrainian forces near Orehiv, as Ukrainian artillery is controlling important routes, crippling Russian logistics.

⚡️️Kreminna
Ukraine continues tactical battles, approaching Kreminna.

⚡️Belarus
Russia is training its personnel in Belarus. While Ukraine is preparing for potential attacks from Belarus, there is no indication of an immediate attack (while provocations are still possible).

⚡️Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities
Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, targeting residential areas. Kherson city was once again shelled by Russian artillery, resulting in the death of civilians.


⚡️Unprecedented military aid to Ukraine & upcoming Ramstein meeting
International pressure on Germany to supply or at least authorize the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine is mounting. Poland has stated that they “will receive the approval from Berlin for the transfer or will do the right thing anyway”, which is another incentive to Scholz to proceed with the transfer.
Following the Davos forum and just before the next Ramstein meeting, the Western countries are increasing their military aid to Ukraine. The so-far announced list of equipment is already unprecedented.
So far, the UK, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland announced new military aid packages to Ukraine.
The number and the nomenclature indicate that the West is not only correctly assessing the situation and the danger of the next, and “ultimate”, Russian attack, but is also aiding Ukraine to prepare a counteroffensive. The Western military-industrial complex has been restored and the main objective of the West is to help Ukraine win.
There might be additional equipment that More announcements are to be expected from the upcoming Ramstein meeting on Friday, the 20th of January.
️
⚡️Kremlin preparing for Russia’s defeat
The Kremlin has already reacted with pointless media hysteria and propaganda. In particular, Medvedev has stated that “a military defeat of a nuclear power nation is dangerous for the world”. This prompted immediate clarification from Peskov, Kremlin’s spokesperson, who said that Medvedev “didn’t mean to threaten anyone with nuclear weapons”.
While Russian panic is an expression of internalization of the prospect of defeat, the West knows that Russia is losing.

⚡️Crimea is Ukraine
The US has stated that not only Crimea is part of Ukrainian territory and any Russian military bases in it are a legitimate target, but also declared its support to Ukraine in the liberation of Crimea from the Russian invaders.

⚡️Davos meeting & rebuilding of Ukraine
The main focus of the Western strategy must not be the appeasement of Putin but aid to Ukraine. The Western politicians in the Davos forum advocated for arming Ukraine to help it win the war that Russia started.
The West has understood that appeasement is the worst strategy and realised the historical parallel between Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin will not stop and thus he must be stopped and Ukraine must win.
The Davos forum also housed a discussion among the main world banks that are signalling their willingness to invest in Ukraine, rebuild and develop Ukraine after the war, with the preparation starting now. For this future, Ukraine must first win, which is inbuilt into the new security strategy for Europe.
Further discussion of rebuilding Ukraine (after the Lugano forum) will continue in London and Vilnius this summer.

⚡️European Parliament: special tribunal to punish Russian war crimes
The European Parliament adopted a resolution to establish a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war criminals for crimes of aggression in Ukraine. This is a clear sign to the Russian regime and also to Lukashenko that war criminals and their enablers will be punished.

⚡️IAEA & nuclear safety
IAEA inspectors will establish a permanent mission in all Ukrainian nuclear power plants to increase safety and prevent potential Russian nuclear blackmail. The IAEA inspectors are already at the Rivne and Chornobyl NPP and must also get access to the Zaporizhzhja NPP temporarily occupied by the Russian invaders.

⚡️Iran & Serbia recognise the territorial integrity of Ukraine
Both Iranian and Serbian Governmental officials stated that they recognise Ukrainian territorial integrity and reject Russian claims to the 4 temporary (and partially) occupied Ukrainian regions and Crimea. This is not only a reflection of the international pressure on Iran [from Israel, Saudis and Turkey] and Serbia [which is aspiring to join the EU], but also a clear indication that both Iran and Serbia understand that Russia lost.
The US state secretary Blinkin is going to visit China (in early February), which is always a bad omen for Russia.

⚡️Kremlin in zugzwang
The Kremlin will attempt to mobilise another 300k Russians to use them as cannon fodder. Soon, these 300k will be gone either in an attempt to attack or as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, leading to the need of mobilising more Russians. Yet, everyone is aware of Russian logistical problems, lack of equipment, officers and training. Moreover, Ukrainian reserves, training and armament are increasing with time, unlike Russia’s.
The West is not scared of the next Russian attack, as, at this point, Russia cannot win. In fact, every move (attack, dig in or wait) will only bring more problems to the Kremlin’s regime. In some time, the Kremlin will arrive at the inevitable conclusion that their objectives have no military solution, indicating the failure and the beginning of the end of the regime.

⚡️Resistance & infighting in Russia
Popular discontent and anxiety are increasing in Russia. Arestovych reminds everyone in Russia who is ashamed and terrified of the Kremlin’s actions that they shouldn’t agree or collaborate with the Kremlin’s criminal regime – resist, sabotage, do not cooperate or, at least, disagree.
The increasing conflict within Russian elites, like the tensions between Prigozhin, the Presidential administration and the Russian military command can also escalate. In the best-case scenario, they will kill each other faster than anyone expects.

⚡️Fundraising for victims of the Russian attack on Dnipro
The profit from Feygin & Arestovych merchandise stores is being transferred to Ukrainians that suffered from Russian aggression and war on Ukraine. The latest transfer has been made to the victims of the Russian missile attack on the residential building in Dnipro, so far about $11 000.

Next stream is on Saturday, 21st of January.

blueshoes · 20/01/2023 18:32

I am pleased that Arestovych is back and Poland is not being prevented by Germany from supplying Leopards to Ukraine. Let's hope more countries take this as a tacit yes from Germany to follow suit.

"Unbelievably, the factory that makes the bespoke ammunition for chally 2's is shut down....."

I thought Challenger 2 is the main UK battle tank. How could the factory shut down. Are there other factories that can make ammo?

katem98 · 20/01/2023 18:39

⚡️Kremlin preparing for Russia’s defeat
The Kremlin has already reacted with pointless media hysteria and propaganda. In particular, Medvedev has stated that “a military defeat of a nuclear power nation is dangerous for the world”. This prompted immediate clarification from Peskov, Kremlin’s spokesperson, who said that Medvedev “didn’t mean to threaten anyone with nuclear weapons”.
While Russian panic is an expression of internalization of the prospect of defeat, the West knows that Russia is losing.

I find this bit interesting. I don't think such claims would've been retracted or cleaned up by anyone in the past.

Greenshake · 20/01/2023 18:46

That is interesting. Medvedev needs to lay off the booze and stop running his mouth. To think he was once (very briefly) seen as a credible player…

MissConductUS · 20/01/2023 18:48

Even the Russians have said that tanks are not escalatory so I've no idea why the Germans have their knickers in a twist about this. HIMARS was arguably much more of an escalation.

I think that the countries that want to supply Leopards will do a backroom deal with the Germans as a group to do so without Germany explicitly approving it. . The Germans sold about $10 billion worth of armaments last year. They are in grave danger of losing this export market if something reasonable can't be worked out. South Korea makes a lovely export tank and would love to get that business.

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