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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
notimagain · 11/02/2023 19:04

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, told Deutsche Welle that the West should supply Ukraine with fighter jets as the planes could contribute to Ukraine’s victory within a year. [@notimagain what do you make of this? ]

TBH really hard to say without knowing what assumptions he's making (aircraft type, ordnance etc) , and of course he's hedging his bets with "could".

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 22:25

Well, if it takes months to train them but the war is going to go on beyond the end of 2023 ...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 23:02

About Starlink and it being cut off in some areas of Ukraine and Elon's decision to prevent it from being used to control drones - It seems there may be a competitor.

news.bloomberglaw.com/federal-contracting/starlink-competitor-touts-pentagon-partnership-blasts-musk

[have not posted everything]

Rivals of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications are gaining attention from the Pentagon as Musk draws criticism for Starlink’s unavailability in contested areas like Ukraine.

Musk has threatened to cut off financial support for Starlink service in Ukraine, an essential communications tool to combat Russia’s invasion. The Defense Department, meanwhile, confirmed it’s looking for other satcoms to do business with. One competitor to Starlink is Kymeta, a Bill Gates-funded company that has donated and sold its technology to Ukraine.

Kymeta currently works with the DOD and is in talks with other NATO countries about its antenna that’s held up in various ground conflicts over the last two years, Marks said. The company positioning itself as a better and more reliable satcom provider than Starlink, a message aimed directly at the Pentagon.

“The reason the US military likes our technology is that if you were an adversary and you do something to compromise one of the satellites, our antenna will switch to another satellite. And it does it all within less than a second,” Marks said. “The soldiers would’ve never lost connectivity.”

The military agencies that Kymeta has spoken with want flexibility, redundancy, and security. Marks tells them that Kymeta is modular—it can hook up to low-earth orbit and geosynchronous equatorial orbit satellites as well as cellular networks. He makes a point of noting Starlink works as a single network system.

Kymeta has classified and unclassified contracts with several Pentagon departments and civilian agencies. The federal government has reported more than $6.6 million in unclassified contracts with the company.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 23:04

and the important bit, though not confirmed

Kymeta to replace Starlink in Ukraine. Pentagon is setting up deal & other NATO countries will join.

Kymeta calls @elonmusk
's Ukraine actions ‘egregious’ and 'there’s blood on his hands for that'. They will support SAT services for defensive purposes.

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 00:57

This may be a bit off topic, but another unidentified target has been shot down, over Canada this time.

Flying Object Shot Down Over Canada on Orders of Biden and Trudeau - The military action over Yukon territory marks the third such incident above North America in recent days

Updated Feb. 11, 2023 7:32 pm ET

A U.S. military jet shot down another unidentified airborne object, this time over Canada, on Saturday on orders of President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“Out of an abundance of caution and at the recommendation of their militaries, President Biden and Prime Minister Trudeau authorized it to be taken down,” according to a statement from the U.S. National Security Council. “President Biden authorized U.S. fighter aircraft…to conduct the operation and a U.S. F-22 shot down the object in Canadian territory in close coordination with Canadian authorities.”

The “high altitude airborne object,” as U.S. officials described it, briefly drifted into U.S. airspace before hovering over Canadian territory and was shot down, according to U.S. officials. It was the third instance of the U.S. shooting down airborne objects over North America since a suspected Chinese spy balloon was taken down off the Atlantic coast on Feb. 4.

The latest object appeared to be a small metallic balloon with a tethered payload, flying at an altitude of about 40,000 feet, according to U.S. officials familiar with the situation.

The object was first spotted late Friday, according to a statement from the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Two American F-22 Raptor jet fighters based at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, were scrambled and monitored the object over U.S. airspace first, tracking it “closely and taking time to characterize the nature of the object,” the statement said.

It then went into Canadian airspace on Saturday and was shot down using a Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missile, officials said.

Mr. Trudeau spoke with President Biden earlier Saturday.

The prime minister said Canadian forces would now recover and analyze the wreckage of the object.

Nav Canada, which manages the country’s airspace, issued flight restrictions Saturday for an “active air defense operation” applying to a 100-mile radius area around the town of Mayo, Yukon, about 475 miles east of Anchorage, Alaska.

Canada, under pressure from the Biden administration, last year revealed plans to spend tens of billions of dollars over the next two decades to improve the military’s capacity to detect and track military threats from Russia and China in the Arctic.

The sighting of the object over northern Canada is at least the third in North America in more than a week. The U.S. military on Friday shot down a small airborne object floating at about 40,000 feet that was feared to pose a danger to regular aviation.

Recovery operations for that object are taking place near Deadhorse, Alaska, and include members of the Alaska National Guard and the Federal Bureau of Investigation and local law-enforcement officials.

They are occurring under severe weather conditions that include wind chill, snow and limited daylight, Norad said Saturday. So far, it isn’t certain what that object, also shot down by an American F-22 Raptor jet fighter, was doing there or who deployed it.

“We have no further details at this time about the object, including its capabilities, purpose or origin,” the Norad statement said.

The first object taken down was what U.S. officials described as a large Chinese spy balloon that floated across the U.S. for days until it was destroyed by a U.S. jet fighter off the coast of South Carolina last weekend.

In retaliation for the suspected Chinese spy balloon, the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday added six Chinese entities it said were involved in the balloon program to its so-called entity list, which bars U.S. companies from supplying them.

The action was another step by the Biden administration to restrict exports of Western technology that China could use to advance its military capabilities. The Biden administration last year slapped export controls on manufacturing equipment China could use to develop advanced semiconductors needed for cutting-edge military systems.

The discovery of the Chinese balloon also prompted criticism of Mr. Biden from Republican lawmakers. Some in the GOP have said the Biden administration should have shot down the balloon earlier, when it flew over the Aleutian Islands or other parts of Alaska.

In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration monitors and controls airspace up to 60,000 feet for commercial and military traffic. Broad international agreement exists that the airspace under 60,000 feet is the dominion of the nation that controls the ground below it.

Commercial jetliners cruise between 35,000 and 40,000 feet. Alaskan airspace is relatively uncrowded, but it has become busier since the closure of air routes through Russia following sanctions imposed last year, especially for planes traveling between Western Europe and northeast Asia.

U.S. officials said the object shot down Friday over Alaska was about the size of a car, smaller than the suspected Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. downed on Feb. 4. The balloon was about 200 feet long and carried a payload roughly the size of a jetliner, Pentagon officials said.

China has said the balloon was conducting research, not espionage. Officials from the Pentagon, State Department and FBI released new information last week to bolster the U.S.’s assertion that the Chinese balloon was used for surveillance.

Images captured by high-altitude U-2 surveillance planes showed that the balloon was equipped with multiple antennas, including an array likely capable of pinpointing the location of communications, a senior State Department official said.

Those U-2 and other reconnaissance flights also found that the balloon carried large solar panels capable of powering intelligence collection sensors. The manufacturer of the balloon has a direct relationship with the Chinese military, the State Department official said.

Biden administration officials have identified at least four previous flights by Chinese surveillance balloons above the continental U.S. that went undetected until after they left American airspace. Three of those flights occurred during the Trump administration and one took place early in the Biden administration.

The military command in charge of U.S. air defenses failed to detect the previous suspected Chinese surveillance balloons and learned about them later from intelligence agencies.

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 02:14

What is going on with this?

Igotjelly · 12/02/2023 07:46

Yes very odd these objects being shot down. Wonder what on earth they are.

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 08:02

Im wondering this too - it doesn't really fit with the Chinese reaction to the furore over the first one. What could the "payload" attached to this one be? I wish they'd reveal more info, it just goes to show how much is going on that we have no access to

OP posts:
notimagain · 12/02/2023 08:46

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 08:02

Im wondering this too - it doesn't really fit with the Chinese reaction to the furore over the first one. What could the "payload" attached to this one be? I wish they'd reveal more info, it just goes to show how much is going on that we have no access to

It is indeed all a bit odd - The latest object (the Alaska one) was supposedly much much smaller than the one that made it across the States, so can't have been carrying much - perhaps it actually was somebody's weather balloon.

Those do get into commercial airspace sometimes...I recall whizzing past one once over the States one evening....that came as a bit of a surprise to say the least.

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 10:47

As the WSJ article mentioned, retrieving the wreckage of the object shot down near Prudhoe Bay is proving very challenging. Hopefully, the Canadians will have better luck. The object over Alaska was flown by twice, once at night and then again the next day. The second flyby allowed for visual inspection of the craft/object, close enough to determine that it was unmanned. It's a bit disturbing that they haven't released the video or any still images from the second pass and that they are still referring to it as an "object."

notim, two tangential questions if you don't mind. What do you think of the F-22 as an air superiority fighter, and were you doing training or a joint exercise when you encountered the weather balloon flying over the US?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 11:37

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the current circumstances of the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian forces’ reported culmination and tactical failures around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, have likely further weakened the Russian ultranationalist community’s belief that Russian forces are able to launch a decisive military effort.

The disparity between the limited but significant Russian advances in the Bakhmut area and the lack of meaningful advances elsewhere in Ukraine may support milblogger and Ukrainian observations that Russian forces are unable to secure rapid advances through traditional mechanized maneuver warfare.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is trying to salvage his declining influence in Russia as the Kremlin continues to sideline him and his mercenaries.

Russian forces targeted southern Ukraine with air, missile, and aerial and maritime drone strikes overnight on February 10-11.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces continue to prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities are likely draining the Kakhovka Reservoir north of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed that the Wagner Group stopped recruiting inside Russian prisons due to the expiration of an agreement between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Note: the ISW commented that if the current offensive under the aegis of the Russian Army fails, then Prigozhin might come back into favour. Since the Russian offensive is unlikely to achieve the huge aims it's set itself, this seems quite possible. Politically, he's not done for yet.

Note: The UK considers the trends of losses probably accurate. Since there is a lot of discussion about accurate numbers, it's a good point about the actual trends and the UK considers the Ukr figures accurate.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 11:47

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️The Times: UK could provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/the-times-uk-could-provide-ukraine-with-missiles-capable-of-reaching-crimea) Ukraine with missiles capable of reaching Crimea.

⚡️Pentagon: Russia likely lost (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pentagon-russia-likely-lost-about-half-of-its-battle-tanks-in-ukraine) about half of its battle tanks in Ukraine.
The capabilities of the Russian army, especially the ground forces, have significantly deteriorated, according to Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs at the Pentagon.

⚡️Zelensky: We want to be in EU in 2 years, in NATO after victory (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-we-want-to-be-in-eu-in-2-years-in-nato-after-victory).

⚡️Ukraine to create (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-to-create-centralized-demining-hub) centralized demining hub.

⚡️Kosovo's president: Wagner mercenaries work with Serbian paramilitaries (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kosovos-president-wagner-mercenaries-work-with-serbian-paramilitaries-against-kosovo) against Kosovo.
Members of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group work with Serbian paramilitaries to smuggle weapons in Kosovo for a potential hybrid attack by Serbia to grab Kosovan territory, Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani told The Telegraph.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine holds defense, regains positions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaluzhnyi-ukraine-holds-defense-regains-positions-in-some-areas) in 'some areas.'
Ukrainian troops recaptured previously lost positions and gained a foothold "in some areas" along the front line, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Feb. 11.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-forces-strengthen-presence-near-lyman-bakhmut) strengthen presence near Lyman, Bakhmut.

⚡️Der Spiegel: Ukrainian troops to start training on Leopard 2 tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-ukrainian-troops-to-start-training-on-leopard-2-tanks-in-germany-next-week) in Germany next week.

⚡️Zelensky dismisses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-dismisses-national-guard-deputy-commander-reportedly-in-charge-of-logistics) National Guard deputy commander reportedly in charge of logistics.
Zelensky’s executive order didn't specify the reasons for the dismissal, though Ruslan Dziuba, the commander in question, was reportedly in charge of military logistics.

⚡️Ukrainian military strikes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-strikes-over-30-russian-temporary-bases) Russian temporary bases over 30 times.

⚡️Wagner Group boss claims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wagner-group-boss-claims-russian-capture-of-krasna-hora-near-bakhmut) Russian capture of Krasna Hora near Bakhmut.

⚡️Southern Command: Ukraine destroys (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/southern-command-ukraine-destroys-two-russian-boats-in-dnipro-river-delta) two Russian boats in Dnipro River delta.
Russian forces were allegedly preparing the boats for sabotage groups to maneuver in the Dnipro River delta in southern Kherson Oblast, Humeniuk told the national television, as quoted by Ukrainian news agency Interfax-Ukraine. [there is a lot of sabotage by Russia going on. We don't hear the details, but there are rumours that an important bridge by Odessa was blown up and another very important one near Bakhmut which will affect the Ukrainian defense]]

⚡️Minister: Russia has damaged (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/minister-russia-has-damaged-over-1-200-medical-facilities-since-feb-24) over 1,200 medical facilities since Feb. 24.

⚡️Russian propaganda media briefly displays anti-war, anti-Putin news items.
Several pieces with uncensored anti-Kremlin headlines about Russia's war against Ukraine were briefly published on the website of Russian propaganda tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda, according to Prodolzenie sleduet (t.me/prodolzheniesleduetpodcast/3665), a project founded by journalists formerly employed at Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta.
Headlines of the items posted on the Komsomolskaya Pravda website included "Putin orders the killing of ciivilians in Ukraine" and "EU creates tribunal in The Hague for trial of Putin". The news items were taken down by administrators less than ten minutes after being published. [oopsies, someone's head might roll for that. Hopefully not literally, since they aren't actually in Ukraine].

close to 1000 dead and a high level of equipment lost by Russia yesterday.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
notimagain · 12/02/2023 11:55

@MissConductUS

notim, two tangential questions if you don't mind. What do you think of the F-22 as an air superiority fighter,

Well I know it's been somewhat controversial but it looks very good on paper and I'd bet the Russians and probably the Chinese wouldn't want to go up against it...can I have one to play with please...

and were you doing training or a joint exercise when you encountered the weather balloon flying over the US?

It was actually in the civilian world, from memory coming out of somewhere like Philly, heading for home when we whizzed past the thing in the New York Boston area....

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 11:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram

[some awful footage of Mikheil Saakashvili, ex Georgian president, collapsing and fitting in his detention centre in Georgia. He has by all accounts been slowly poisoned by the current pro-Russia president]

Thomas Haldenwang, the head of Germany's domestic intelligence service, is concerned that China is expanding its espionage activities against Berlin. Because of this, the country is reconsidering its economic relations with authoritarian countries in order not to be dependent on them, as happened in the case of Russia.

American historian Timothy Snyder has raised more than $1,268,000 for the Shahed Catcher. Six such systems are already protecting Ukraine's energy facilities from Russian attacks. Thanks to Timothy's fundraising, more "catchers" will be purchased. [he has done an excellent series on Ukraine, ]

"The enemy is learning" - how has the Russian army changed since February 24?
An episode from the interview
with Bohdan Krotevych, Tavr - Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment
🔗WATCH THE FULL INTERVIEW:

Zaluzhny said that Russia is using maritime surface drones, a statement he made in a conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. He added that this poses a threat to civilian navigation in the Black Sea.
Earlier, Russian propagandists released a video showing an alleged drone strike on a bridge in Zatoka, Odesa region.

⚡️Two power units at one of Ukraine's nuclear power plants have been launched, which will reduce the shortage of electricity generation, Energy Minister Galushchenko says.

Russia lost over 100 pieces of equipment near Vuhledar and Avdiivka in three days - Oryx Spioenkop.

Yuriy Mukhin, studio guest of terrorist Girkin-Strelkov, says Russia needs to stop the war immediately.

Update on the Bakhmut area, 11 February - no major changes, the defense line is holding, counter-attacking in some locations. Supply lines are intact

Wives and mothers of mobilized men from Tatarstan are asking for help. Their men are thrown into assaults in Donbas without any preparation, only with assault rifles. The command regards soldiers as expendable material, telling them they are "future 200 [KIA]".

Western companies race to produce weapons in Ukraine - The Telegraph
British defense officials are discussing with their counterparts in Kyiv plans to manufacture British arms and military equipment in Ukraine, but they are not the only ones in the West who are eager to do so. British companies are eager to keep up with French and German competitors.

❗️NATO Secretary General Oana Lungescu's spokeswoman said that Jens Stoltenberg wants to leave his post this fall and not seek re-election for a fourth term.

Note the last point! Wonder who would come next ...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 12:01

grrr that link again to Timothy Snyder

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 12:13

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russian invasion of Ukraine takes not only human lives, but also causes irreparable harm to the environment. Dozens of rare animals and unique nature reserves of Ukraine are being destroyed by the Russian army and the barbaric attitude of the occupying authorities.
See how Russia has declared war on nature

20 pregnant Russian women were detained in Argentina
They planned to enter Buenos Aires to give birth and obtain residency for themselves and citizenship for their future children.
Argentina's national migration agency called it a "profitable business" run by Russian women and launched a judicial investigation.

Serbia will join Western sanctions against Russia in the near future, – President Aleksandar Vučić
According to Vučić, Western countries are putting pressure on Belgrade in this matter.

German magazine Der Spiegel appeared with Zelenskyy on the cover and the headline "Putin is a dragon who wants to eat all the time"
Zelenskyy noted that Putin cannot be persuaded and stopped, because he is a dragon who needs to eat something all the time.
"To satisfy his appetite, you give him one country after another or at least parts of them. And your people cry: "Forward! Give him more!" But in today's world, neither borders nor oceans will stop Russians. I am absolutely sure of that," Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine received 334 tons of energy infrastructure repair equipment from Germany, — the Ministry of Energy
Among the equipment received from German partners:
▫️Generators;
▫️Armature for air ducts;
▫️Distribution and lighting equipment;
▫️Electric tools;
▫️40 transformers.

The Russians deployed a military equipment repair base in Mariupol, – the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Equipment that the invaders deliberately disabled in order not to take part in hostilities is brought here. The main cause of the malfunction is usually damage to the motors.

Rishi Sunak called on government officials to develop an action plan aimed at strengthening relations between Great Britain and the EU, — Bloomberg
It is, in particular, about closer cooperation between Great Britain and the European Union in the field of defense, migration, trade, energy and international standards. [I can't help it ... headdesk headdesk headdesk]

UK: The issue of joint support to Ukraine will be discussed separately. An updated Comprehensive Review of Britain's defence, security and foreign policy towards Ukraine is due to be published in the coming weeks.

Russia is deliberately trying to delay the exchange of prisoners, they say, our soldiers allegedly do not want to return home, — ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets [they are saying the Ukr soldiers do not want to go back to war, but Lubinets says this is not true, in fact some Russians have been taken prisoner, exchanged, sent back to the front and re-captured].

Russia tries to recruit British officials and intelligence officers, – The Sun
According to the publication, Putin ordered the Russian special services to increase the recruitment of spies in Great Britain in order to disrupt the transfer of future military aid to Ukraine, as well as to sow chaos in the country.
The second direction, according to The Sun, is secret informants among officials, in particular, the House of Lords, as well as in other areas of the public.

This is what the bullet-riddled fence looks like in Irpin. Even in the darkest times, Ukrainians find the courage to feel something positive.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 12:20

Washington Post Telegram

Here's the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/12/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/)— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is ramping up efforts to stamp out corruption in Ukraine’s public institutions, following his recent visit with European Union leaders — a key requirement of Kyiv’s aspiration to join the bloc.

— The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner said it could take Moscow up to two years to seize the regions of eastern Ukraine it illegally claimed annexation of in September, and three years if it wants to occupy areas east of the Dnieper River.

— Russia is reinforcing its troops around Lyman and Bakhmut, the center of some of the bloodiest battles in recent months, according to Ukraine’s armed forces.

Pentagon looks to restart top-secret programs in Ukraine (www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/10/us-special-operations-ukraine-surrogate-program/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

The Pentagon is urging Congress to resume funding a pair of top-secret programs in Ukraine suspended ahead of Russia’s invasion last year, according to current and former U.S. officials. If approved, the move would allow American Special Operations troops to employ Ukrainian operatives to observe Russian military movements and counter disinformation.

A determination is unlikely before the fall. Defense officials are preparing a proposal for lawmakers’ consideration in the coming months, when work begins on next year’s Pentagon policy and funding bill. If successful, these programs could resume as soon as 2024, though it remains unclear if the Biden administration would allow U.S. commandos back into Ukraine to oversee them or if the military would seek to do that from a neighboring country.

(www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/10/us-special-operations-ukraine-surrogate-program/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

notimagain · 12/02/2023 12:21

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Rishi Sunak called on government officials to develop an action plan aimed at strengthening relations between Great Britain and the EU, — Bloomberg
It is, in particular, about closer cooperation between Great Britain and the European Union in the field of defense, migration, trade, energy and international standards. [I can't help it ... headdesk headdesk headdesk]

I feel your pain, but to avoid thread drift...🤐

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 14:53

notim, I've made inquiries, but it seems unlikely that the USAF will offer you a loaner Raptor. Perhaps this will do. Maneuverability looks quite impressive.

notimagain · 12/02/2023 15:02

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 14:53

notim, I've made inquiries, but it seems unlikely that the USAF will offer you a loaner Raptor. Perhaps this will do. Maneuverability looks quite impressive.

Very nice video, thank you..think at my age I'll pass ( more likely pass out) on the idea of 9g plus.

TBF whilst those party tricks look fantastic (and do have their uses) one of the best things about the aircraft is probably the ability the nip into a fight with a low chance of being observed, smack the baddy in the face with some fancy weaponry and then get out again PDQ...

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 15:14

That vertical climb is something else

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 17:46

This is a bit wonkish, but worth a read.

Will Logistics Be Russia's Undoing in Ukraine?

There's been a convergence of two massive miscalculations. The war has greatly reduced demand for Russian petroleum products, which they thought was impossible. They also thought their victory would be so quick that there would be no need to supply their troops in the field for more than a few weeks. The end result is Russian troops in the field, culminating due to the lack of supplies and equipment. Here are two key paragraphs.

While some of Russia's supply failures can be attributed to Ukraine's acquisition of long-range precision fires (which threaten supply depots ammunition dumps), the most fundamental issues center on Russia's inability to produce the required materiel for war. The overall weakness of the Russian defense industrial base reflects an overall weak economy, one that is, again, largely dependent on energy production (and, to a lesser extent, on agricultural exports, which have also been decimated by sanctions).

The most fundamental problem for Russia in continuing its war with Ukraine may now be manpower, both for its military and its economy. This limitation hits at the very fundamentals of logistics and sustainment, as manpower is one of the few things that can severely curtail a nation's ability to produce and distribute materiel. While Russia began the war believing it had sufficient personnel in its military for the coming campaign, this has proven incorrect, particularly as the war is far longer than Russia expected, and with a far greater casualty count.

TheABC · 12/02/2023 20:34

Interesting thread from Dmitri - highlights below. The usual disclaimers apply; read with a handful of salt as it's off twitter. However, it does seem to chime with what I am reading elsewhere.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624716804256825344?t=B6AG7LcbiI3hVT5h0CSU5w&s=19

"Since Wagner have failed in their objective of taking Bakhmut, Prigozhyn hinted that they may return to Africa.

⚡️ Internal situation in Russia: According to a survey in Russia, up to 70% of Russians know someone who is involved in the war in Ukraine.

This means that the war is no longer "virtual" and is close to home. 73% would support the immediate end of the "special military operation", even without it accomplishing any goals. 1/3 believe that the SMO has accomplished none of its goals.

⚡️ Russian economy: Profits from the export of goods have fallen by nearly 4 times. These are the first indications of sanctions working, the effects of which will be seen properly during the summer.

Large Russian businesses refused to "voluntarily" contribute up to 250 billion rubles to the Russian budget. This indicates a widespread mistrust of the government. The Russian economy is having to transition to a 'grey' model to avoid international sanctions.

⚡️ Russian offensive: The pace of the Russian offensive will be hindered by logistics stockpiles being 90km behind the front to avoid HIMARS. New 160km missiles will wreak havoc on Russian rear areas.

Secretary Blinken announced that the nature of weapon shipments to Ukraine is changing and that the West wants to see Ukraine return its occupied territories. This statement indicates the switch from mostly defensive to offensive weaponry.

Igotjelly · 12/02/2023 21:29

news.sky.com/story/us-military-shoots-down-another-unidentified-object-12809826

Another one? Sorry but what the fuck is going on?

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 21:36

Yes, one in China too. What's going on?!

OP posts:
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