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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
CalistoNoSolo · 28/01/2023 18:11

Long time lurker checking in to say huge thanks for this most informative of threads. I'm so heartened that the US, UK and EU seem to be doubling down on support for Ukraine. Thank goodness for Joe Biden.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 28/01/2023 19:30

As we know Turkey have said no to Sweden joining NATO and the whole muslim world is turning on Sweden because some fuckwit burnt a koran last weekend.

Just heard that the Finns have discovered said fuckwit was funded by the Kremlin.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/01/2023 20:22

welcome @CalistoNoSolo and hi again @BringBackCoffeeCreams , hope your studies are going well

Natsku · 28/01/2023 21:39

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 28/01/2023 19:30

As we know Turkey have said no to Sweden joining NATO and the whole muslim world is turning on Sweden because some fuckwit burnt a koran last weekend.

Just heard that the Finns have discovered said fuckwit was funded by the Kremlin.

What a massive surprise

Greenshake · 28/01/2023 21:39

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 28/01/2023 19:30

As we know Turkey have said no to Sweden joining NATO and the whole muslim world is turning on Sweden because some fuckwit burnt a koran last weekend.

Just heard that the Finns have discovered said fuckwit was funded by the Kremlin.

They really are so sneaky and underhand aren’t they?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/01/2023 22:43

Rumours, oh so distressingly, of drone attacks in Iran tonight and multiple explosions.

One is at a munitions factory, it's said, and another at an oil processing plant.

blueshoes · 28/01/2023 22:52

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/01/2023 22:43

Rumours, oh so distressingly, of drone attacks in Iran tonight and multiple explosions.

One is at a munitions factory, it's said, and another at an oil processing plant.

In Iran? Who'd do that? Would that be war?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/01/2023 22:58

No idea, despite many Twitter people saying they 'know'.

Could be people who are fighting the regime, is my guess. Just possibly Ukrainians slipping them drones to attack the drone-making factories ... that may be far-fetched though.

strawberriesarenot · 28/01/2023 23:07

I suppose Moscow helicopter crash is too much to hope for.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/01/2023 23:27

That seemed odd didn't it. Aircraft are struggling for parts due to sanctions so possibly it was a maintenance issue. Or just one of those awful occurences.

MissConductUS · 29/01/2023 00:17

It's been weeks since I posted a Ukraine-related background article from the WSJ, so here you go. This facility and others like it will become even more critical as the new MBTs go into service.

The Covert Polish Repair Shop Patching Up Ukrainian Arms - Poland has set up a major repair operation aimed at returning damaged Ukrainian artillery and armor to the battlefield

Jan. 28, 2023 10:45 am ET

WARSAW—In a sprawling factory complex surrounded by derelict buildings, hundreds of technicians are working around the clock on one of the biggest challenges of Ukraine’s war: repairing artillery and heavy armor and returning it to the front line.

Mechanics buzz around the football-field-sized workshop housing three AHS Krab guns, the air thick with the smell of metal dust and automotive grease. Two of the Krabs, which look like tanks but are self-propelled 155mm howitzer guns, are missing parts of their caterpillar tracks and are riddled with bullet holes and contorted metal.

Another Krab stands sparkling clean, ready to be ferried back into Ukraine along a route that has seen the biggest transfer of arms in Europe since World War II. Each weapon can take up to two months to repair by technicians who must pass layers of security checks before they are allowed onto the floor of the factory at a location The Wall Street Journal agreed not to disclose.

In addition to the repair work in Poland, the mechanics are in constant contact with technicians in Ukraine—many of whom were civilians before the war—teaching them over encrypted apps how to repair everything from tanks to missiles.

“That one actually arrived here in the worst condition we have seen,” says engineer Mirosław Surowaniec, pointing to the revitalized Krab, one of 10 guns repaired in recent months. “The entire gun barrel was missing, the body badly damaged.”

At the factory complex, guns used by AHS Krabs lay next to combat vehicles. Foreman Sławomir Kapusta stood by a Krab and electricians worked on one of the howitzers.

The maintenance and repair of munitions is a major challenge in a war that is burning through arms at the fastest pace since Nazi Germany clashed with Soviet Russia on the same territory almost 80 years ago.

The scale of the previously unreported Polish armaments operation highlights the complexity of a maintenance challenge that is about to grow far larger. On Wednesday, the Biden administration announced plans to send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, joining European allies who will send as many as 100 German-made Leopard 2 tanks.

Polish officials say they expect the Abramses will be repaired in Poland in the western city of Poznan, making the former Soviet satellite state the leading edge of a maintenance operation that stretches to the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. Poland will also likely play a critical role in repairing and maintaining the Leopards, due to its arms industry’s deep experience with the tank.

“It is safe to assume that Poland is a leader when it comes to servicing the equipment being used by the Ukrainians in the battlefield,” said Tomasz Smura, an expert on military technologies from Casimir Pulaski Foundation, an independent think tank in Warsaw.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy thanked Poland on Friday for agreeing to transfer 74 tanks, which include 30 PT-91s and 14 Leopard 2s.
Technicians at the factory work in three shifts around the clock.

The challenge of maintaining Ukrainian munitions, including the tanks, comes as both Ukraine and Russia are planning offensives. Until now, Ukraine has largely used tanks such as the Soviet-era T-72, including those transferred by former Soviet satellite states including Poland.

A year of intense combat has exacted a heavy toll on tanks and artillery pieces whose cannon barrels have been warped by frequent fire. To remain operative, the materiel not only needs repair but also parts, plus Soviet-caliber ammunition that the West doesn’t produce in significant quantity.

In Russia, where the economy has been mobilized to support the war effort, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced in a September decree that he would create two new arms-repair hubs in the Moscow and Rostov regions, according to state media.

In Poland, the Krab Howitzers—first produced in 2017—are being serviced at a facility owned by the Polish Armaments Group, a state armaments company.

The workshop is monitored by armed officers from the Internal Security Agency, tasked to scout for potential sabotage operations that have hit weapons factories in other countries, including Bulgaria.

Every one of the roughly 400 assembly and production employees—and any visitor to the premises—must be a Polish citizen. The screening process for new employees, regardless of rank, can take several months.
The welding hall at the factory complex.

On the factory floor, technicians work in three shifts around the clock and are in regular contact with Ukrainians on the battlefield. They share information about best techniques for repairs over encrypted messages and a HelpDesk app that helps them to troubleshoot problems.

Polish mechanics said they once used the chat application to teach a Ukrainian postman-turned-soldier to repair a missile.

Mechanics sometimes find soldiers’ belongings inside the Krabs: a toothbrush, unfinished snacks or family photos. Dariusz Gawinek, a mechanic, said that repairing the hardware has made him more committed to helping the war effort.

“The Krabs arrive here with leaves, mud, sand, twigs stuck to the body and caterpillars. It is Ukrainian soil,” he said. “It hit me really hard the first time I went inside of one.”

Polish officials said the workshop could soon expand to repair and maintain equipment manufactured abroad, but declined to detail any specific plans.

Sławomir Kapusta, the workshop’s foreman, said he was moved last August when a vehicle arrived that had almost been destroyed. “One always wonders what happened to the crew under such circumstances,” he said.

blueshoes · 29/01/2023 00:52

@MissConductUS I saw that article in the WSJ and felt heartened. Wanted to jump up and thank those Polish mechanics in their welding masks working their metal fabrication machines. Times like this makes me wish I had a useful skill like them. Yes, Ukraine will need many more of them.

Mechanics sometimes find soldiers’ belongings inside the Krabs: a toothbrush, unfinished snacks or family photos. Dariusz Gawinek, a mechanic, said that repairing the hardware has made him more committed to helping the war effort.

“The Krabs arrive here with leaves, mud, sand, twigs stuck to the body and caterpillars. It is Ukrainian soil,” he said. “It hit me really hard the first time I went inside of one.”

katem98 · 29/01/2023 06:07

Looks like the rumours of drone attacks in Iran were true. News article below.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

Igotjelly · 29/01/2023 06:56

I think re the Iranian attacks it’s important to remember that there have been a few mysterious explosions in Iran over the past few years. Some linked to Israel and others to Kurdish militia. It may be linked to the currently escalating violence between Israel and Palestine.

notimagain · 29/01/2023 08:00

Igotjelly · 29/01/2023 06:56

I think re the Iranian attacks it’s important to remember that there have been a few mysterious explosions in Iran over the past few years. Some linked to Israel and others to Kurdish militia. It may be linked to the currently escalating violence between Israel and Palestine.

Yep, I think if I was looking for the source of these drone attacks in Iran I'd not be looking in the direction of Kyiv.....

I'm sure this visit to Israel was entirely unrelated to last night's events............ but it does mention the escalating tensions..

www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-729828

Natsku · 29/01/2023 08:19

blueshoes · 29/01/2023 00:52

@MissConductUS I saw that article in the WSJ and felt heartened. Wanted to jump up and thank those Polish mechanics in their welding masks working their metal fabrication machines. Times like this makes me wish I had a useful skill like them. Yes, Ukraine will need many more of them.

Mechanics sometimes find soldiers’ belongings inside the Krabs: a toothbrush, unfinished snacks or family photos. Dariusz Gawinek, a mechanic, said that repairing the hardware has made him more committed to helping the war effort.

“The Krabs arrive here with leaves, mud, sand, twigs stuck to the body and caterpillars. It is Ukrainian soil,” he said. “It hit me really hard the first time I went inside of one.”

That is a very heartening article, so good of those Polish mechanics. Also makes me wish I had a useful skill and that's part of the final push (been umming and ahhing over it for a few years so not just because of this) to make me decide to retrain in aircraft maintenance - don't want to be useless.

borntobequiet · 29/01/2023 08:25

Thanks for all the input on Civil/Military combined airports and 'dual use' motorways. Interesting to read

Like so much on here. Thanks from me too.

MissConductUS · 29/01/2023 11:52

The decision to send Nato's main battle tanks is having political repercussions in Russia, as the former Kremlin speechwriter I quoted earlier said it would.

‘Putin’s In Collusion With The Pentagon’: Russians Panicking Over Western Tanks Supply To Ukraine

There are some choice quotes from Russian social media in the article, so it's well worth a look. They think that Putin being in a conspiracy with America to destroy Russia is the only possible explanation for why the war is going so badly for them.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 13:18

Ok just reading your last post, Putin in collusion with the US, made me laugh out loud :D

The workshop is monitored by armed officers from the Internal Security Agency, tasked to scout for potential sabotage operations that have hit weapons factories in other countries, including Bulgaria.

Shows a side of the war that is kinda hidden. Thanks for that article.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 13:30

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wagner Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group’s offensive in Bakhmut culminated with the capture of Soledar around January 12.

Russian forces are attempting to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative possibly ahead of a planned decisive Russian offensive in Donbas.

Russian forces likely lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation while fixing Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.

The Russian military leadership may once again be planning an offensive operation based on erroneous assumptions about the Russian military’s capabilities

The Russian military’s decreasing reliance on Wagner forces around Bakhmut is likely reducing Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence.

Russian forces reportedly continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas. Russian forces continued a localized offensive near Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources did not report any Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast for the second consecutive day on January 28.

Some Russian citizens continue limited efforts to sabotage Russian force generation efforts.

Russian occupation officials continue to set conditions for the long-term forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 13:40

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Air Force spokesman: Ukraine aims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-ukraine-aims-to-get-24-modern-fighter-jets-from-western-allies) to get 24 modern fighter jets from Western allies.
The priority for Ukraine is to get American F-16. They are also considering French Rafale and Swedish Gripen fighter jets, the spokesman said in an interview with El Pais.

⚡️US creates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-creates-working-group-to-detect-corruption-in-aid-to-ukraine) working group to detect corruption in aid to Ukraine.
The U.S. has created a working group to detect corruption in its aid to Ukraine, according to a document from the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

⚡️Official: Russia keeps (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-russia-keeps-3-kalibr-cruise-missile-carriers-in-black-sea) 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers in Black Sea.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine needs (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-ukraine-needs-atacms-missiles-to-stop-russian-terror) ATACMS missiles to stop ‘Russian terror'.
Supporters of supplying ATACMS argue that Kyiv's inability to strike targets far from the frontline results in the deaths of numerous Ukrainians and makes it very difficult for Ukraine to expel Russian troops from its territory.
The HIMARS missiles that Ukraine currently uses have a range of 80 kilometers and cannot reach many of the Russian-occupied areas. So far, the U.S. has refused to supply ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers, and GLSDB missiles, which can travel for 150 kilometers.

⚡️ Prosecutor General’s Office records (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/prosecutor-generals-office-records-over-66-500-russian-war-crimes-crimes-of-aggression-in-ukraine) over 66,500 Russian war crimes, crimes of aggression in Ukraine.

⚡️Tagesspiegel: Scholz wants to continue (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/tagesspiegel-scholz-wants-to-continue-to-talk-to-putin) to talk to Putin.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told (www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kanzler-olaf-scholz-im-interview-wir-lassen-einen-krieg-zwischen-russland-und-nato-nicht-zu-9255777.html) German newspaper Tagesspiegel he intends to continue trying to work towards an end to the war against Ukraine in direct phone conversations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

⚡️Reuters: German weapon manufacturer Rheinmetall ready (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-german-weapon-manufacturer-rheinmetall-ready-to-boost-arms-production-build-himars) to boost arms production, build HIMARS.

⚡️Ban on leaving Ukraine extends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ban-on-leaving-ukraine-extends-to-officials-unfit-for-service) to officials unfit for service. The ban concerns both men and women.

⚡️NOS investigation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nos-investigation-dutch-made-microchips-found-in-russian-weapons): Dutch-made microchips found in Russian weapons.
Millions of microchips made by Dutch companies reportedly ended in Russia since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, despite heavy sanctions on technological goods, an investigation by Dutch newspaper Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (NOS) showed. [I imagine ASML will be in for some difficult conversations]

⚡️Estonian Prime Minister calls (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/estonian-prime-minister-calls-to-strengthen-russias-isolation-over-olympics) to strengthen Russia’s isolation over Olympics.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas criticized the Olympic Committee’s suggestion to lift the ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes for the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Paris, calling it “politically and morally wrong.”

Defense Ministry to allocate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-ministry-to-allocate-over-500-million-to-buy-drones-in-2023)over $500 million to buy drones in 2023.

⚡️Intelligence: Prigozhin doesn’t command (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-prigozhin-doesnt-command-wagner-groups-military-operations) Wagner Group’s military operations.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian state-backed mercenary Wagner Group, rather has a political and media role, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Intelligence.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 13:52

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Swedish skiers have declared their readiness to boycott international competitions if Russians are admitted to them, — Sportbladet

Brazil refused to supply ammunition for tanks to Ukraine, — Folha de S.Paulo publication
Journalists report that despite a generous monetary offer in exchange for ammunition, the country's newly elected president, Lula da Silva, decided "not to provoke the Russians."

Israel helps Ukraine more than is known
Israel's ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, said this in an interview with WAZ.
He called for understanding such a restrained position of Israel in matters of military aid.
"It's not as simple as it seems. As you know, the Israeli army regularly stops the supply of weapons from Iran to Syria and Lebanon. Among them are Iranian drones and missiles that Russia uses in Ukraine," said Prosor.

Finland's foreign minister hinted that Russia may have been involved in the Koran-burning campaign in Stockholm, — Bloomberg
According to Pekka Haavisto, Rasmus Paludan's potential connections with the Russian Federation "were investigated and found in his environment."
Instead, the Swedish government has not publicly commented on any ties between Paludan and Russia, but Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said this week that there are "forces" that want to prevent the country from joining NATO.

Italy signs gas deal with Libya to reduce dependence on Russian energy, — Reuters

"The Leopard 2 was bred to trot on European plains, hide in the shrubs and prey on Russian herds. Stopping it from hunting in the Ukrainian steppe would be against its nature, and the German government has finally realized that too"

The newly elected president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, and the president of Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputova, are planning a joint visit to Ukraine, the Slovak publication Pravda reports.

North Korea does not supply weapons to the Russian Federation, and the US committed an "unethical crime" by approving the provision of Abrams tanks to Ukraine, — North Korea's Foreign Ministry

In the occupied Luhansk region, doctors refuse to treat the military from Wagner PMC because of a bunch of diseases, — the General Staff
The reason is that many of them have such diseases as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, syphilis, and pneumonia. [it would be interesting to know the extent/reality of this report; it is written as if it's a general refusal of treatment, but might only be one case).

Kaja Kallas wrote on her Twitter that she was disappointed with the committee's decision to allow athletes from Russia and Belarus to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

There is more mine pollution in Ukraine than in Syria and Afghanistan, Mines Advisory Group representative Kateryna Templeton said in an interview with Sky News.
According to one estimate, more than 40% of the country's territory is mined. Now Ukraine is considered the most mined country in the world.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 14:01

Live: Ukraine Telegram

[from yesterday]
❗️Iran. The situation as of now.
▪️The center for the production of ammunition and UAVs is on fire.
▪️An oil refinery is on fire.
▪️A weapons manufacturing plant is on fire.
▪️There were explosions at a military base in Hamadan and Kereja.
▪️There were explosions at some military units.
For clarity, missile and drone manufacturing plants/factories in five different locations were targeted.
⚡️⚡️Israel launches special military operation inside Iran - Al Arabiya

Update on Bakhmut and Soledar, 28 January: the situation is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the enemy continues a relentless onslaught taking absurd casualties. [reading between the lines it sounds very difficult there for Ukraine]

Military officials are quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russian missiles and drones - Politico

The head of NATO's Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said that the Alliance is ready for a direct confrontation with Russia.
He also believes that Russia's strategic goals go beyond Ukraine, as Moscow seeks to restore the size of the former Soviet Union.

‼️Kherson is under a massive attack by Russian artillery, the occupiers are shelling residential areas. We already know about many victims - wounded and dead.
The regional state administration has not yet announced the number of casualties.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/01/2023 14:03

Live: Ukraine comments on the Iran explosions:

The most popular version is that of an Israeli attack. The reasons for such speculation are obvious: Iran's conflict with Israel is better known than all other conflicts involving Iran.

However, there are complications. Quite trivial ones - Israel does not border Iran. And even the states that border Israel do not border Iran. A hypothetical Israeli UAV launched from Israel would have to cross the borders of Syria and Iraq to hit Isfahan, and eventually cover a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers.

Therefore, a direct clash, at least in the form of an exchange of missile strikes... is virtually impossible. The conflict between Iran and Israel is a conflict between the special services of the respective countries, so all actions against each other can only be carried out from the territory of third countries with the involvement of other people's hands.

Therefore, supporters of the "Israeli trace" version may be right in a place they did not expect - in July last year, Iran accused the Mossad of organizing a sabotage group of Iranian Kurds that was supposed to attack a defense industry facility in Isfahan. It is impossible to verify these accusations on the part of Iran, but if they are true, and not an attempt to demonize the Kurdish opposition, something similar could happen today: a group affiliated with foreign intelligence services (hypothetically, the Mossad) launched a UAV from Iraq or somehow transferred parts of it across the border to launch inside Iran.

Therefore, to begin with, it is better to wait for the Iranian government to add to the news of the attack in Isfahan - most likely, if the launch site was in another country, they will publicly press charges.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/01/2023 14:07

Natsku · 28/01/2023 14:58

There's a few civil/military combined airports in Finland too (the military also makes use of road airstrips so there is always somewhere to land even if airports get attacked - if you're driving in the middle of nowhere and suddenly the road widens up to 6+ lanes, you realise you're driving on a landing strip. There's one we always drive along on the way up to Lapland)

If your car gets engine trouble and you have to stop on one, there is a spontaneous appearance by a very polite person in an unmarked car who helps to get you back on the road as quickly as possible, or so we discovered once. (We had no idea what it was, we just thought we'd be out of the way if we stopped there because there was plenty of space to pass us. Ho hum.)

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