Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Well if it's any consolation the DM's leading headline atm is about Carol Vorderman's legal entanglement with "embattled bra baroness" Michelle Mone. Phew.

Love it!

The Daily Mail is such a rag! It’s true though that there have been several recent alarmist or propaganda led threads on Mumsnet. I see a few of us have got stuck in on a couple of them (to limited success). I don’t believe it’s coincidence either.

Yes I've noticed it too. I try to stay out of those but sometimes it's hard not to engage!

That looks like quite a capable upgrade of the T72, and 60 will be enough to deploy as either one large or two small battalions. The Poles reportedly have 1000 Korean K2s and 250 Abrams on order, so the backfilling process has already started. One holdup in preparing the Abrams Export model tanks for Ukraine is that the General Dynamics plant in Ohio is busy with the Polish order.

Yep it's fever pitch at the minute

Thanks, Greenshake and others who weighed in on those trolly threads. They would send my blood pressure shooting so thank you for holding the line. I am distracted by a work project at the moment and confining myself to this oasis of reasoned analysis.

Rejoicing at leopards, abrams & challenger2s (finally) and F-16s (possibly).

I thought that this was an interesting take on what the decision to send tanks to Ukraine means for Putin in terms of domestic politics.

Former Kremlin insider says decision to send tanks to Ukraine shows ‘deterrence isn’t working’ for Putin - President Putin told his public that the international coalition behind Ukraine would weaken – but military aid to Ukraine is escalating

I won't quote the whole thing, just this bit:

Yet Vladimir Putin’s former speechwriter warned the arrival of modern Western tanks in Ukraine represented a failure of deterrence that could weaken the president’s position at home.

“Even if these tanks will not change the situation on the frontline they show that support for Ukraine is increasing,” Abbas Gallyamov, now a political consultant, told i.

“This is a bad sign for the Kremlin, which is trying to convince the Russian population – which is getting tired of war, and scared – that (Ukraine’s allies) are getting weaker.” Mr Gallyamov added that the imminent deliveries from Europe show that “deterrence is not working.”

“Yesterday the west was afraid to send tanks to Ukraine and today it is not,” he said. “The dynamics are negative and the pressure is increasing.”

Moscow has sought to maintain calm with reassuring messages that the war in Ukraine was going smoothly and its aims would be met. Increased support from the West complicates that message, the former speechwriter believes.

“The population is at the point of panic and the only thing which is keeping calm is the message ‘everything is under control and going to plan,’” said Mr Gallyamov. “But now the situation is getting worse…it’s getting obvious that Putin is no longer in control.”

The article also discusses the Russian comments that the tanks won't help, they'll burn like everything else Nato has sent, etc. These may have the effect of discouraging the Russian army from taking steps to prepare for a Ukrainian offensive that includes modern tanks. There are things they could do - dig antitank ditches, for example. But now doing so would contradict the party line that it's nothing to worry about.

@blueshoes its a pleasure. I am in a lot of pro-Ukranian groups on social media as well and tackling these trolls has become quite the past-time 🙂

I gratefully leave it to you and other troll hunters😆I wish I was armed with facts and infinite patience to rebut their toxic lies, which is far more effective than my instinct to swat them off.

Oh believe me, remaining factual yet courteous is tough 😂😂

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative that may begin as early as February or March 2023.

The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is issuing preemptive pardons for convicts who serve in Russian operations in Ukraine.

A visual investigation by a Russian opposition outlet confirmed that Russian authorities are deporting children from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea. [the orphanage they have been taken to is notorious for malnutrition and neglect]

Russian officials denied reported explosions near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on January 26.

The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict mibloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of the new offensive. These restrictions—if planned—are likely a part of the Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on January 26 and January 27.

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources did not report that Russian forces continued localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast on January 27.

Russian officials claimed that the conscription age will not change in the upcoming 2023 spring conscription cycle.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing to intensify efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian legal and administrative structures.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️PM Orban: Hungary to veto (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-orban-hungary-to-veto-eu-sanctions-on-russias-nuclear-energy) EU sanctions on Russia's nuclear energy.

⚡️Latvia to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/latvia-to-provide-medical-aid-to-120-injured-ukrainian-soldiers-in-2023) medical aid to 120 injured Ukrainian soldiers in 2023.

⚡️UN refugee chief: Russia violating
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-refugee-chief-russia-violating-principles-of-child-protection-in-ukraine)principles of child protection in Ukraine. [again, no shit sherlock]

⚡️EU prolongs (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-prolongs-economic-sanctions-against-russia-by-6-months) economic sanctions against Russia by 6 months.

⚡️Air Force: Russia used Kinzhal missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-russia-used-kinzhal-missiles-to-hit-infrastructure-sites-in-kyiv-zaporizhzhia-on-jan-26) to hit infrastructure sites in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia on Jan. 26.
Ukrainian air defense is currently unable to shoot down this type of missile, according to Ihnat.

⚡️Reuters: Baltic states bought (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-baltic-states-bought-twice-as-much-lpg-from-russia-in-2022-some-was-sold-to-ukraine) twice as much LPG from Russia in 2022, some was likely sold to Ukraine

10 months after Mariupol theater bombing, family struggles to forget harrowing screams and dead bodies (kyivindependent.com/national/10-months-after-mariupol-theater-bombing-family-struggles-to-forget-harrowing-screams-and-dead-bodies)
Ten months after barely surviving the Russian bombing of a theater in Mariupol, Viktoria Dubovitska is keeping a close eye on her seven-year-old son.
Artem remembers “almost everything” about what he saw in the March tragedy, the mother said. He tries not to talk about it, but unwanted memories keep crawling back as time passes by.

⚡️Estonia’s Intelligence: Russia may be capable (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/estonias-intelligence-russia-may-be-capable-of-up-to-9-months-of-massive-missile-strikes-against-ukraine) of up to 9 months of massive missile strikes against Ukraine.
According to Estonia’s Intelligence Chief Margo Grosberg, Russia still has up to 1,250 high-precision missiles left from its stock of 2,500 before the full-scale invasion. In addition to that, Russia continued to produce missiles throughout the invasion.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine to form (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-to-form-first-in-the-world-attack-drone-units) 'first in the world' attack drone units.

⚡️White House: Abrams tanks delivery to Ukraine to take (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/white-house-abrams-tanks-delivery-to-ukraine-to-take-many-months) 'many months.'
“I don't want to get too specific, because we're still working the plans out, but it'll be many months,” John Kirby, a White House national security spokesperson, told CNN.

⚡️Ombudsman: 800 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ombudsman-800-severely-wounded-ukrainian-po-ws-are-held-in-russia) severely wounded Ukrainian POWs are held in Russia.

⚡️PM: Russia’s Jan. 26 mass missile attack (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-russias-jan-26-mass-missile-attack-hit-5-high-voltage-substations) hit 5 high-voltage substations.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine needs 300-500 tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-ukraine-needs-300-500-tanks).

⚡️German Defense Minister rules out (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-defense-minister-rules-out-supplying-ukraine-with-fighter-jets) supplying Ukraine with fighter jets

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims breakthrough toward Vuhledar, Ukraine says Moscow ‘exaggerating’ (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-russia-claims-breakthrough-toward-vuhledar-ukraine-says-moscow-exaggerating)

Vuhledar, once home to around 14,000 people, is located some 50 kilometers southwest of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.

⚡️Danilov: Russia preparing new offensive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/danilov-russia-preparing-new-offensive-wave-on-feb-24) wave on Feb. 24.
Russia is preparing a new wave of offensives against Ukraine on Feb. 24, exactly one year from the start of the full-scale invasion, and has been testing Ukraine's defense capabilities near Zaporizhzhia, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov said on Jan. 27.

⚡️CNN: Ukraine's ambassador to France: Western countries to deliver (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-ambassador-to-france-western-countries-to-deliver-321-tanks-to-ukraine) 321 tanks to Ukraine. [this will take take, though]

⚡️Russian media: Money transfers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-money-transfers-from-russia-to-neighboring-countries-up-by-300-500-in-2022) from Russia to neighboring countries up by 300-500% in 2022.
Money transfers from Russia to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Georgia were reported at record-breaking levels, several times the figures for 2021, according (www.rbc.ru/finances/28/01/2023/63d3c4b99a7947a38baccb5c) to the 2022 central banks’ numbers analyzed by the Russian news site RBC.RU.
Due to Western-imposed sanctions, popular foreign companies have left the Russian market, pushing Russian residents to order goods online from abroad.

800 dead again and 2 aircraft down. Over the 125k mark now - and that's dead, not even counting the wounded / MIA.

I find it imcomprehensible that ordinary Russians aren't starting to notice the huge number of deaths.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Since December, the Netherlands has transferred to Ukraine about 300 tons of energy equipment for the repair and restoration of the energy system, – The Ministry of Energy

Denmark is not yet ready to join the "tank coalition", but continues to help Ukraine in other ways, – Danish Defense Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen

The Russians have become more active in the information space of Ukraine and are spreading its PSYOP, – Secretary of the NSDC, Oleksiy Danilov

The first “Shahed Catchers” are already in Ukraine, — Fedorov
6 of them arrived, these are the most modern defense technologies that protect strategic US facilities. They are engaged in the protection of energy facilities, Fedorov said.
The radar jamming complex helps detect and block Russian UAVs and launches its own drones.

Denmark will buy anti-aircraft missiles and howitzers from Israel instead of CAESAR self-propelled guns transferred to Ukraine, – Bild

In Ukraine, they began to develop a universal airfield network for military and civilian aircraft, – the spokesman of the Air Force Command Yuriy Ignat
According to him, the practice of joint basing of civil and military aviation already exists in the world. This is necessary so that Ukraine can switch to modern military aviation.

Poland has officially announced the creation of a "tank coalition" to support Ukraine, Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said.
"On my initiative, we are conducting negotiations with countries that have Leopard 2A4 tanks to jointly create a coalition of donors of modern armored vehicles for Ukraine," the minister wrote on Twitter.

Now it's a major force on the front lines.
According to estimates there are up to 70,000 service women in the Ukrainian army, and they account for 10 per cent of military personnel, acting in different roles – from a drone operator to a special forces officer. And all of them know what they are fighting for.

Croatia will provide Ukraine with €1 million for the purchase of generators for schools and hospitals, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Croatia

Italy and France agreed on the order of 700 missiles for the SAMP-T complexes, which they plan to hand over to Ukraine soon, — l'Opinion
Defense Ministers Sébastien Lecornu and Guido Crozetto agreed on the purchase of Aster-30 anti-aircraft missiles worth about 2 billion euros.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️An Mi-8 helicopter crashed at Vnukovo airport in Moscow, Russia.
The crashed Mi-8 belongs to the special flight detachment "Russia", which is subordinated to the Presidential Administration and provides transportation of senior officials, including Putin, the Russian service of Radio Liberty reports. Preliminary, there were no casualties.

🇩🇪The German federal government's website has updated the list of aid to be provided to Ukraine:
▪️14 main battle tanks Leopard 2 A 6 with ammunition;
▪️2 armored repair and recovery vehicles Bergepanzer 3;
▪️2 air surveillance radars;
▪️64 truck tractors and 72 semi-trailers.

Inspectors have arrived in Ukraine to oversee the assistance provided by the United States.

Ukrainian military needs six months to master F-16 aircraft
"Our pilots can learn to fly these aircraft in a few weeks. To master how to fight with these aircraft, it takes time, about six months," said Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong said that North Korea "will always stand on the same battlefield" as the Russian army.
She also said that any military equipment supplied to Ukraine by the West "will burn and become a pile of iron in front of the indomitable fighting spirit and power of the heroic Russian army."

Washington Post Telegram

Navalny sayEven from jail, Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition figure, gets more done than most people. He has announced a new media platform with nearly 1.8 million YouTube subscribers, filed more than 10 lawsuits against Russian authorities, and is now the leading voice inside Russia against the war in Ukraine.
But he is gaunt and painfully thin. His health is declining, amid what supporters allege is harassment and sleep deprivation. He has been sent to harsh punishment cells 10 times for up to 15 days, and was even forced to take legal action to get winter boots.
Navalny says he loses nearly eight pounds for every 10 days he spends in the 8-by-10-foot punishment isolation cell where he gets a cup and a book, a metal stool fixed to the floor, and a cot that is folded during the day.s Kremlin wants to break him in jail. His team fears worse.

In home of Kalashnikov, Russians fight plan to turn mall into drone factory
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/russia-izhevsk-drone-mall/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
With Russia’s economy under pressure from Western sanctions and its war effort faltering after major setbacks last year, the Defense Ministry has demanded that arms and weapons producers work 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to increase military production.
Izhevsk, 620 miles east of Moscow, famous as the home of the Kalashnikov weapons plant, is part of Russia’s drive to dramatically increase the production of rockets, shells and drones.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Ten regions of Ukraine were hit by emergency power outages Friday, a day after a Russian barrage, the state power grid operator said.

• In the latest attempt to cement its illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, Russia announced (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/27/russia-moscow-time-occupied-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram) Friday that it will impose Moscow time in the parts of four Ukrainian regions now under control of its invading forces.

• The type of American tank going to Ukraine will be the M1A2 Abrams, according to Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh.

• The U.N. refugee agency said Moscow is giving Ukrainian children Russian passports and putting them up for adoption.

• Poland will deliver 60 tanks to Ukraine, including 30 of the Polish PT-91 Twardy and 14 of the German-made Leopard 2, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.

- The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said inspectors reported “powerful explosions” outside the Zaporizhzhia plant in Ukraine.

In Ukraine, they began to develop a universal airfield network for military and civilian aircraft, – the spokesman of the Air Force Command Yuriy Ignat
According to him, the practice of joint basing of civil and military aviation already exists in the world. This is necessary so that Ukraine can switch to modern military aviation.

He's right -Civil/Mil combined is very very common in many parts of the world outside of Europe, and there are some such inside Europe.

Typically how it works is geographically the military facilities are one side of the airfield, civil is the other and the runways/taxiways are shared....gives more options for the mil if they need a lot of concrete (thinks F-16) and their runways get damaged by Russian long range strikes.

Ukrainian military needs six months to master F-16 aircraft
"Our pilots can learn to fly these aircraft in a few weeks. To master how to fight with these aircraft, it takes time, about six months," said Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force

Also sounds right..in fact I do believe some of us 🤐 were coming up with that sort of timescale in spring last year when there was all the shouting in the media about "just send fighter aircraft, how hard can it be to learn to use one........"

He's right -Civil/Mil combined is very very common in many parts of the world outside of Europe, and there are some such inside Europe.

It's very common in the US. There's a civilian airport not that far from me that also hosts a New York Air National Guard base. Friends who live closer to it than I do have been complaining about the near-constant C-17 flights to Europe sending military kit to Ukraine.

Stewart Air National Guard Base

The base has an interesting history. Before WWII there was no USAF, it was the US Army Air Corp. Stewart was built as an aviation training field for the cadets at the US Military Academy at West Point.

To clarify, the US Air Force was separated from the army in 1947, after WWII. The USAF opened its own service academy in 1955, but because of its history, many of the most famous USAF general officers attended West Point.

There's a few civil/military combined airports in Finland too (the military also makes use of road airstrips so there is always somewhere to land even if airports get attacked - if you're driving in the middle of nowhere and suddenly the road widens up to 6+ lanes, you realise you're driving on a landing strip. There's one we always drive along on the way up to Lapland)

He's right -Civil/Mil combined is very very common in many parts of the world outside of Europe, and there are some such inside Europe.

ours is combined, too.

^Ukrainian military needs six months to master F-16 aircraft
"Our pilots can learn to fly these aircraft in a few weeks. To master how to fight with these aircraft, it takes time, about six months," said Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force^

Also sounds right..in fact I do believe some of us 🤐 were coming up with that sort of timescale in spring last year when there was all the shouting in the media about "just send fighter aircraft, how hard can it be to learn to use one........"

I wish we'd started training back then. At least it's now

@Natsku

if you're driving in the middle of nowhere and suddenly the road widens up to 6+ lanes, you realise you're driving on a landing strip.

Quite a few countries have gone down that road (SWIDT)...One of the highways near Singapore airport was set up to do much the same.

It's not an option available to all aircraft, you often need lowish pressure tyres and the engine intake position on some aircraft means they are prone to hoovering up gravel etc...not a good thing.

Also to support ops off main base you need a big logistics tail, so not all nations have opted for to do that and instead have relied more on hardening their main bases.

Apparently all the Finnish airforce aircraft can use them but I don't know if that'll change in future when the new aircraft ordered come

Thanks for all the input on Civil/Military combined airports and 'dual use' motorways. Interesting to read.

Notimagain, you are right about the motorway leading up to Singapore's Changi airport being available for fighter jets in war. Being a green city, there are trees on either side but in the middle are big planters that can be moved aside to open up the highway which is multiple lanes and dead straight at that stretch.

If the news about the tanks/planes are any indication, the autumn season will be one to watch. I don't think Russia will end the war this year but I remain hopeful that they free another oblast.