Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

I think we should all be slightly more concerned about Russia destroying all of Ukraines water sewage and electricity infrastructure.

Russia has the means of production to make older cruise missiles etc until the cows come home..... Ukraine hasn't the means to stop them or destroy launch sites.

Both EU and UN saying this will lead to a humanitarian crisis, with no real means to go in and help..... Russia isn't going to facilitate any aid.

Ukraine Govt advising people to leave too.

That's why I said "Here's the explanation that makes the most sense to me. I think an American AWACS aircraft was on patrol at the time"

Maybe, but in any event I understood that you were putting it forward as an possible option.....ATB.

@MissConductUS

Sorry for the supplementary, typing on the run..

Normally the target lat/longitude would be downloaded over the satellite comms link, but they can be keyed in directly by the crew. I think that in either case the fire control system displays a map to let the crew see the target location as a check against error.

Thanks, the map display makes perfect sense as a mitigation measure against finger trouble if keying in lat/long to umpteen decimal places - many thanks for the info.

This is my worry now. We have broadly 3 potential outcomes to this war.

1. Ukraine win militarily eventually yet their infrastructure is pounded causing a humanitarian crisis. With NATO allies hands being tied to not want to escalate the war.

2. The war escalates for whatever reason and more countries become involved.

3. Negotiated settlement that appeases Putin and gives him what he wants.or at least gives him an undeserved offramp.

1 is the the only one Ukraine are looking like they will accept but the cost will be huge.

I just don't see where we go from here.

The infrastructure as @Alexandra2001 has pointed out is a major concern. People are buoyed by their recent liberation in Kherson but snow has come and they are without heat and light. It will soon become a humanitarian situation. We are now trying to source generators as there is a major shortage in Ukraine and the price of them has past £1000 each. Many are leaving for Odessa and beyond Ukraine but many are too old or have too many dependents to leave. This is a major concern.

But if you ask many on the ground they will tell you "All is Ukraine" and I personally will support them all the way.

Russia has the means of production to make older cruise missiles etc until the cows come home.....

It actually hasn't, but I'm well aware that's not much if any consolation to the general population if the Iranian drones are still being supplied.

notimagain had answered:
There's no evidence I've seen that there was an AWACS over Poland that night (see previous post) and I've not read a statement to that effect. I am howvere more than happy to be pointed in the direction of statements that says one was there.

MissConduct replied to this point:

Neither have I. That's why I said "Here's the explanation that makes the most sense to me. I think an American AWACS aircraft was on patrol at the time"

I apologise, MissConduct, as I clearly misinterpreted your comment about the AWACS plane picking up the radar signal of the Ukrainian S300 and the Russian incoming missile as being more of a definite statement than it was.

Thank you both nevertheless, as these military points are I very interesting. I’ll back off now though, and my apologies again MissConduct.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 10:56
Hancox432 · Today 10:51
Alexandra2001 · Today 10:25

Re the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine.

It is unspeakable that it is OK for Russia to use this means to destroy civilian life, and it will be actual lives inevitably too, but not one bomb may land in Russia, (not that I don’t understand why not.) it is as though Ukraine must be sacrificed to shut Russia up.

It also seems that it the more UKraine wins in one way, it will lose through these barbaric attacks.

if more generators could be got to them, do they have enough petrol? Does anyone know of schemes to send generators?

Thank you both nevertheless, as these military points are I very interesting. I’ll back off now though, and my apologies again MissConduct.

No apologies are needed at all, @ScrollingLeaves, I took no offense at all. It's a lot to understand. My concern is that I'm not explaining things clearly, as it already makes sense to me, if you see what I mean.

I think we often have this tendency to talk about the end of the war as if conflict is a near bookended thing. The Syrian conflict has been going on since 2011, violence between Israel and Palestine has been going on for decades on and off, both world wars went on for years and to be honest pretty much ran into one and then in a way led to other conflicts. It’s likely this will go on and on to varying degrees for years if not decades.

I agree, I think a definitive ‘end’ will be very hard to establish. This really is the most awful situation.

Pray you are correct but from what i ve read, Russia still has about 40 to 50% of its missile stocks pre war and whilst western sanctions are limiting production of its latest gen stuff, older less accurate missiles are still being produced & the world is by no means united against Russia in terms of supplies.

Ukraine needs Western air defence systems asap but then there will also be training issues to be over come as well, should have been put in place months ago, not wise after the event, many could see this happening.

It is truly awful what Russia is doing.

My worry is what the conflict looks like when countries cannot any longer afford to support them. We all say as long as it takes. But I can imagine the narrative would change if we're still pumping in billions in 5 years time.

That's not atall to say I think we should stop. However it's very possible over the next couple of years that small countries physical and financial support for Ukraine will dwindle as their countries face their own issues. Already we have Hungary threatening to veto a support package as they refuse to put Ukraine's needs ahead of their own during a time of economic crisis when most of the world is still recovering from COVID.

Sunak is in Kyiv meeting Zelenskyy.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-nato-poland-missile-article-4-article-5-putin-12541713?postid=4898941#liveblog-body

snazzy video and everything!

Footage is great, Zelenskyy looks genuinely happy and it’s wonderful to see

Thank you, that is heartening to see Sunak and Zelensky together and UK reaffirming support for Ukraine. Hopefully this helps to lever the 3% Wallace is asking for.

Finger crossed @blueshoes

The war will last longer than we expect and be shorter than we fear. There's a reason why the USA have the land-lease in place and the EU is talking about humanitarian funds. We can't afford to let Russia win. What next? Poland? Nor can we afford a large failed state on our collective doorstep, either, if we leave Ukraine to struggle on its own.

On top of that, Ukraine is important for it's geography, resources and warm water ports. It will take a decade or more to recover, but it will heal from this.

The real question is the level of pain Russia is willing to endure before it wants to withdraw. We're not there yet.

Igotjelly · Today 13:37
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-nato-poland-missile-article-4-article-5-putin-12541713?postid=4898941#liveblog-body
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-nato-poland-missile-article-4-article-5-putin-12541713?postid=4898941#liveblog-body

snazzy video and everything!

Thank you, Igotjelly, that is heartening. I am very glad he went, and in this timely fashion just after the Poland horror. It shows Zelensky he isn’t being shunned for contradicting NATO.. I hope Ukraine can really start to have so much air defence from now on that they becomes much better protected from the constant Russian bombardments.

Looks to be a decent air defence package announced too so not a pointless visit.

www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-new-air-defence-for-ukraine-on-first-visit-to-kyiv

Previously announced missile delivery will presumably be more AMRAAMS and reloads for stuff like Starstreak.

Have to say heads are being scratched (mine included) about the origin/identity of the 125 anti-aircraft guns, AFAIK haven't been any in the UK inventory in literally decades, maybe they are a buy in by the UK to donate directly from source to Ukraine....however they are sourced it obviously needs to be PDQ.

In any event it's good news.

Question: can you name the meeting of two none atheist/christian European leaders? Apart from Sunak / Zelensky?

Cos I can't.

I'd love to know if there has been one.

I haven't noticed the degradation of infrastructure weakening resolve. It has certainly worsened day to day lives.

Have been discussing 'what's in the cupboard?' (if anything). Will post about this tomorrow.