Day 267, November 17th. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 18 November 2022
🔥Battlefield update:
🔥Kherson
Ukrainian artillery hit multiple Russian military targets – successful destruction of Russian command posts, warehouses and military camps.
🔥Huliaipole
6 Russian brigades attempted to attack Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia region. They were stopped and failed. Maybe this was an attempt to test Ukrainian defenses.
🔥Vuhledar
Local tactical clashes between Ukrainian and Russian troops. Both sides sustain losses, with Russian troops losing more soldiers.
🔥Mariinka
Tactical movements and local clashes without any significant changes of the frontline.
🔥Bilogirovka-Svatove
Minor tactical movements, no substantial changes to the frontline.
🔥Russia targeting Ukrainian civilians & critical infrastructure
Russia continues to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure, such as the electric grid and power distribution centers, and residential buildings.
Russia launched 16 missiles and a number of Iranian drones, the majority was intercepted and only about 2-3 hit their targets, resulting in several dead and injured in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia city. This is the Russian strategy to try to pressure Ukraine into negotiations.
🔥Poland
Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Kuleba, and other Ukrainian representatives arrived in Poland and will have access to the Polish investigation. While not just Ukraine but also Belarus and Russia have S300 complexes, every missile is cataloged and can be eventually traced to its owner.
For now, Poland and the US suggest that this was probably a Ukrainian S300 missile that was set to intercept a Russian missile launched against Ukraine. Yet the key question is “Where is the Russian missile or what remains of it?”. The intrigue is: Was the Russian missile launched against Poland and not Ukraine? For now, the West seems to not escalate the situation or to escalate in the way that Russia wanted (e.g. provoking NATO into war).
Yet, the mystery of the second missile can be solved at an opportune moment or Ukraine can be given all that they need to deal with the Russian menace.
🔥Russia´s friends pushing for negotiations
Russian appeasers and Russian-friendly politicians in the West, such as Berlusconi, are pushing for negotiations with Russia. In reality, Ukraine will not agree to negotiations on Russian terms, as Ukrainians are overwhelmingly pro-liberation of all Ukrainian territory from the Russian invaders.
Ukrainian victory is part of the Western security strategy and the basis of the new security system in Europe. Moreover, any attempt to pressure Ukraine into negotiations by, for example, decreasing military aid to Ukraine, will result in political and popular discontent in the West as it “puts the Free World in danger”.
Ukraine has clearly stated the conditions for the negotiations – firstly, Russia must remove all Russian troops from all Ukrainian territories.
Meanwhile, as we can see from the West´s actions and the recent Ramstein meeting, the military aid to Ukraine continues.
🔥MH17 & Hague trial
The International Criminal Court at the Hague declared 3 out of the 4 accused guilty of shooting down MH17 and murdering 298 people, including Girkin (Strelkov) who got a life sentence. Russia is at fault here.
This is another sign that the West doesn´t want to escalate the conflict as the main responsible for the MH17 downing is missing from the list of accused. Indeed, Putin is the only person who can order the Russian Ministry of Defense to release the Russian BUK system, the border guards, and the FSB (two other institutions) to let it cross the Russian border. Thus, Putin is ultimately the main responsible for the death of 298 people on MH17.
🔥The Western Strategy & Ukrainian resolve
The West is not escalating the conflict & to control the course of the war, trying to contain it to Ukraine, sending weapons to Ukraine, signaling to Putin that he cannot cross some red lines (e.g. use nuclear weapons) and suffocating Russia with sanctions, but not removing Putin from power.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is paying for this more cautious, non-escalation strategy with blood, destroyed livelihoods and Ukrainian kids murdered by Russian missiles. For example, in the recently liberated Kherson there are more Russian torture rooms and mass graves being uncovered after the liberation.
Ukraine has already liberated 55% of the territory that Russia occupied after the 24th of February. Ukraine will not stop resisting and will fight until the last Russian invader is gone from the Ukrainian land.
🔥Russian populace limit
The increasing number of Russian military losses, sanctions against Russia and crackdown on civil and economic liberties in Russia will sooner or later reach the critical limit and lead to an implosion in Russia.
Arestovych predicts that the serious internal problems in Russia will start in February-March 2023.
[With regard to this last point there's a lot of rumours on Twitter suggesting that full mobilisation will begin in Russia in January 2023, given the problems with equipping and feeding the current mobiks I find this difficult to believe, and surely it would be the last straw for the Russian people?]