What have we learnt from the Cabinet Reshuffle:
Hunt (Chancellor): Largely shares a broadly similar position to Sunak, but Sunak can't replace him with Oliver Dowden as he'd like for the time being. He needs to show stability before he can take control of the department. Hunt is a One Nation Moderate Tory, so this appeals to the centre ground of the party. Sunak has said difficult decisions ahead - this seems to suggest tax rises. This may actually help the markets as interest rates/weakness of the pound/inflation is partly related to the size of the budget black hole. Markets already like the appointment and gilts are trading close to prior when Truss took over atm.
Cleverly (Foreign): Sunak sees our foreign relations as shit and a priority. Probably feels he wants to clear up mess left by Johnson and Truss who were both there before being PM. Look for trade deal noise. This is partly about Brexit. Much mood music about healing relations with Macron rather than throwing insults at him. Cleverly's calls today interesting: Ukraine, India, Singapore and UAE. I think this reappointment is one of the most interesting as it shows there are real concerns over international relations. Good appointment for me.
Wallace (Defence): Self Explanatory. Also needed to keep Johnson wing happy. BUT Sunak refused to commit to increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP which Truss had.
Braverman (Home): Red meat for the ERG. He did a deal to become PM. Without her and other ERG members coming across, he would have had to go to the party membership and he'd have lost. She is determined to persue a hardline and wants the Rwanda deal. Sunak has previously been supportive of it too. But Braverman isn't his choice and is considered a liability. He (and many others) will be looking for her to make a big error so she can be given the boot at the first opportunity.Tim Shipman thinks this will upset the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case. Clearly knives out for her already. She has to tow line or she'll be out and Sunak can go 'oh well I gave her benefit of the doubt'. Tactical as well as about policy imho.
Raab (Justice and Deputy PM): Another eye catcher and red meat for the ERG. The British Bill of Rights and potentially leaving the ECHR is back on the cards. Raab was shit at Justice before and ended up causing strikes. But he's a Sunak loyalist and this was his price. Not good. Worse appointment than Braverman for me, as more likely to get away with murder and its signalling an assault on rights likely.
Gove (Levelling Up): Good appointment. Was doing well and even people who don't like Gove in none Tory areas were positive about him in this role previously. This won't please the Home County NIMBYs. This is a gamble in terms of how it will affect Tory/LD marginals. But Gove is committed to unpopular decisions that probably do need making for housing.
Stride (DWP): Close Ally of Sunak. Thinks that benefits need to rise in line with inflation. Thus somthing for Hunt to find. Again means taxes must go up. Worth keeping eye on the triple lock. Hunt wouldn't commit to it. Truss then made a point of doing so, because of wailing.
Shapps (Business and Energy): Neutral on this for now. Gas prices are falling considerably and with stronger pound anyway, things may not look as bad as they did a month ago.
Coffey (DEFRA): Absoluete disaster for a struggling sector at a time where we have issues with food security and continued food production. He clearly hates farmers. Awful in just shitness.
Barclay (Health): Will look to cut red tape and middle management by the look of it. So unlikely to be good for health - they will almost certainly have to make cuts in this area. They've recently had a bucketload of money which NHS chiefs are saying has already been swallowed up by inflation. Not a priority for Sunak imo.
Zahawi (Minister without portfolio / Tory Chair): Johnson ally without intergrity put in position to unite the party. Interesting move.
Dowden (Cabinet): Key Sunak ally. Rumoured to be prefered choice for Chancellor. Given key role looking after Cabinet business helping Sunak.
Mordaunt (Leader of HoC): Power play which might upset at least 30 to 40 MPs. Making a point that he wasn't happy about being held to ransom over a Cabinet position. Note that a rebellion of 30 to 40 is big enough to be a problem. She has a reputation as being shit, so this probably is about keeping her out of trouble as much as anything.
Keegan (Education): Has track record focusing on vocational education - thats very different to Truss's desire to bring back grammars. Not a name or ally. This appointment is not a priority and department is clearly well down Sunak's list. Education unlikely to get the money it desparately needs post covid.
Badenoch (Int Dev and Equalities): He didn't promote Badenoch from Int Dev BUT he has given her Equalities so its a step up. Think this one is curious and almost a 'now prove yourself' moment in a Cabinet of known quantities and no new faces. Its also a statement of intent over trying to tackle identity politics. Again meat for the right of the party.
Heaton-HArris (NI): Surprise this one. Key Johnson Ally. But perhaps needed as Stormont situation at a critical point.
Overall: There are some real stinkers in there. And some worrying things, but also things that look encouraging. He's clearly trying to manage factions with this mix and has given a fair amount to the right of the party. Whether thats because he shares those views or realises he needs to do this, to get other things through I'm not 100% sure. Probably a mix of the two.
Other thing, seems that he's pretty much left the Defence Dept alone, which I think is interesting.
Its a 'boring reshuffle' over all. No risks or new blood. Its 'safe'. Few surprises for me.