Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

From the video, it is probably going to be effective against masses of untrained and unprotected conscripts. How awful.

What a terrible weapon. Whose extra brainy little kids grew up and invented that? What a horrible species we are.

Thread by Mick Ryan analysing what Putin's speech means for Russia (painted into a corner): twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1575967494657179648?s=46&t=R1S0bFCmE_sOfxgpqKWYZA

Some of those brainy kids grew up centuries ago - in simple terms the system a simply a modern development of a concept that goes back hundreds of years (e.g. grape shot, canister, some air dropped cluster munitions, etc..etc).

War is a grim business.

All weapons are terrible if you are on the wrong end of them..

I suspect many would still like to think the Russians will go back behind the pre February or even 2014 borders after perhaps a bit more gentle nudging, with perhaps their conscripts suffering no more than a few broken bones and superficial burns but it will sadly take a lot more than that.

I don’t pretend to understand international politics but can annoy one tell me why Russia still have veto power on the UN Security Council and if this can be removed?

One story (rumour) I heard was it would take a UN Security Council vote to remove veto power from one of it's members.

No current member of that council is going to vote to remove the veto from another member on the basis that doing so sets a precedent...........

Hopefully the real and no doubt more complex reason will be explained shortly.

Oh goodness. Made me cry, too. Those poor families.

I’m not sure there is a more complex reason unfortunately. A UN member can be removed by a vote of the GA but that has to be a proposed motion from the SC which obviously isn’t going to happen.

A procedural matter can be voted through the SC by 9 members so maybe there is a loophole to make it a procedural matter, I suspect not at this stage though because of China.

Those families collecting the awards and those weapons. It's all hell isn't it.

The UN without all nations, particularly those with significant spheres of influence, is pointless. The point of the UN is it the talking shop for all views whether you like them or not.

It is supposed to uphold certain principles and foster peace and cooperation. That's its mandate in theory. In practice it's more complex. If you do have conflict its supposed to be the pressure to stop it.

Its worth saying it didn't stop wars in Iraq or Afghanistan anymore than its stopped war in Ukraine at this point.

Its toothless and frustrating and doesn't live up to the ideals we would like it to have. Yet that's merely a mirror to its members. And we still have a need to have a forum we're all talk.

Removing vetos and members would destabilise it. Remember the power of censorship in the wrong hands is totalitarianism. We tolerate different views, even those we hate as liberal democracy, because that is the foundation of freedom - if we do not, then we give permission and precident for those powers to be used potentially to silence us. It is what makes us different from dictatorships. The use of soft power to persuade rather than executive or military power to enforce.

The idea of the UN as enforcer of peace simply is completely contrary to western ideals as paradoxically as it may seem. The UN must be toothless to spread power rather than concentrate it in the hands of only one. The path to peace ultimately only comes from cooperation and mutual building of respect. It is the builder of trust. Talking aids building that trust.

It is amazingly frustrating to us to see the UN 'not working' and being 'toothless' yet we can't really measure how much its 'not working' either. We don't have a parallel world to measure how much better or worse without the UN we would be. In terms of our ideals having the UN makes sense though. It reminds us and shows up those out of step in a way that we possibly would not be as aware of. It forces a degree of transparency and accountability. Yes a nation can say one thing then go off and do different bilateral diplomacy totally counter to that. But it's a way of highlighting that type of duplicity in a way. In diplomatic terms it forces cards on the table more, and then allows questions to be asked. If someone says one thing then does another, other parties can assess their trustworthiness and work with their allies. (this can work against us imperialism - which arguably it should do)

Would I like the UN to be able to do more? Yes, every idealist would. But the UN isn't a forum for idealists. It's a pragmatic organisation which recognises that humans are nasty bastards who don't talk and instead use guns and bombs. And knows that the path to progress isn't going to be everyone singing cum-bye-arh and holding hands.

To put it bluntly, it's better than nothing.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories.

Putin announced that Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle will start a month late on November 1, likely because Russia’s partial mobilization of Russian men is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that would usually oversee the semi-annual conscription cycle.

Russian officials could re-mobilize last year’s conscripts when their terms expire on October 1.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours.

Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian forces continued to force Russian troops into defending their positions.

Russian troops continued ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian authorities continued efforts to coerce Russian participation in mobilization efforts, but will likely struggle to coerce participation as Russians continue to flee Russia for border states who welcome them.

Russian officials are accepting bribes and engaging in other preferential treatment to prevent or ease the economic burden of mobilization on the wealthy.

Russian authorities are continuing to deploy mobilized personnel to Ukraine without adequate training or equipment, and personnel are unlikely to be able to afford to provide their own supplies.

Russian forces conducted a missile strike on a Ukrainian humanitarian convoy and attempted to blame the Ukrainian government.

+++

⚡️ Finland shuts border for Russian tourists.

⚡️Stoltenberg: NATO will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

⚡️ EU says ‘stricter assessment’ required for Russians wanting tourist visas.

⚡️ UK, Canada impose sanctions on Russia following its sham ‘referendums,’ annexation attempt. The U.K. will ban the export of almost 700 goods “crucial to Russia’s industrial and technology capabilities,” as well as bar access to key western services.

⚡️ CNN: G7 foreign ministers to impose economic costs on Russia for annexation of Ukrainian oblasts.

⚡️ Update: Death toll rises to 30 in Russia’s attack on Zaporizhzhia.
National Police Chief Ihor Klymenko said an 11-year-old girl and a 14-year-old boy are among those killed in Russia’s attack earlier on Sept. 30.
Klymenko said 88 people were injured, including a three-year-old girl.

⚡️ US announces new economic sanctions against Russia .... on hundreds of top Russian officials and their families. Sanctions will also target companies created outside of Russia in an attempt to help Russian military suppliers evade sanctions.

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Reuters: Leaks from Nord Stream pipelines may be ‘largest emission event ever detected.

⚡️ US sees no signs yet that Russia will use nuclear weapons.

⚡️ NYT: Biden signs bill providing $12.3 billion in aid for Ukraine. The bill passed the U.S. House of Representatives byThe bill passed the U.S. House of Representatives by a vote of 230-201 earlier on Sept. 30.

⚡️ World Bank announces additional $530 million loan to Ukraine.

⚡️ Russia vetoes UN resolution condemning illegal annexation of Ukrainian oblasts.

⚡️ ISW: Ukrainian forces likely to encircle, capture Lyman within 3 days.

📣NATO will not participate in the war in Ukraine, since "the war will end before Ukraine goes through all the necessary procedures to join the Alliance," said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office.

💔 Five days without water and food: The Russian occupiers kept a lyceum principal in a torture chamber in the Kharkiv region (school principle).

📌 Russian invaders in Mariupol burned Ukrainian textbooks in the schoolyard
It is known that the city remains extremely dangerous for now because mines lie right in the middle of the streets where children have to go to school every day.

❗️ On the morning of October 1, Russian troops struck the Odesa region with missiles. They hit an industrial infrastructure facility. An electrical substation, several houses and private garages around were also damaged. No one was hurt

🔺 The Russian military abducted the Director General of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ihor Murashov — Enerhoatom [shit]

More huge personnel losses.

(the quacklings are growing so fast! only 6 days old and almost twice the size of when they came out the egg) )

I expect what we will see now is the same pattern as previously. Escalation speech followed by a couple of months of fighting without much really changed followed by another escalation in a few months. Hopefully someone will put a bullet in his head in the mean time. Or he runs away into exile like a coward.

I don't see him going nuclear anytime soon. Why would he before he knows if his conscription has made an impact. Also his support from his allies I wavering and support from Russians is declining. Can't imagine him thinking oh i know what will improve my image... a big nuke in Ukraine. To be fair you never know with That that.

The ducklings are growing so fast, and so cute and fluffy! Loving their daily updates

As suspected the NATO application seems to be symbolic, if the war is expected to be ‘over’ (whatever that looks like) before the membership would be finalised.

Well said. I would also point out that the Russians have been using similar weapons against civilian targets since day one and that in combat, your enemy is doing anything they possibly can to kill you. Eliminating them before they have a chance to do so saves the lives of your own soldiers and civilians.

Tuba I agree with you, there does seem to be a pattern here. I also wondered about the point of the partial mobilisation if nukes were to be the next step. I do worry that there has been so much focus on the nuclear aspect that other concerning alternatives could be overlooked. We must stand firm.

Having re-watched some of Putin’s ranting and raving yesterday, the audience reaction was very interesting. Hardly the jubilation and happiness that he suggested the event should convey. Lots of anxious and concerned faces. I really hope that they find the courage within themselves to do the right thing.

Lend-lease starts today =)

I know it involves more air - defense, but does anyone know the full package of what can go to Ukraine now?

Lawrence Freedman:

Putin's Annexation and Lyman's Encirclementt*

Even by his own standards Vladimir Putin’s speech on 30 September in the Kremlin’s St George’s Hall was unhinged. For those who can face reading it, it can be found heree. As he ranted about the west, denouncing it in lurid terms for a range of evils, from imperialism to satanism, it seemed, as Mark Galeottii observed, that he was trying to convince himself as much the outside world about this grand civilisational struggle with the West. The rant had a purpose, which was to demonstrate the irrelevance of legality. The annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, now to join Crimea as part of the Russian Federation, goes directly against the Charter of the United Nations. Instead of this being acknowledged as a foundational document of international law, it was wrapped up in a denunication of the West’s claims about a ‘rules-based international order’, which only reflected their selfish and malevolent interests. Russia was under no obligation to follow those rules. If it wanted to expand its borders, it was fully entitled to do so.
Ever since the Kosovo War in 1999, and NATO’s use of the principle of self-determination and reports of atrocities to justify their support of the Kosovar Albanians, he has employed this same combination of claims to rationalise his violations of the sovereignty of neighbouring countries. Hence the contrived processes of sham referendums and fake claims of Ukrainian terror.
Implications for Diplomacy
Although it is always disturbing listening to these rants, the conclusion was not surprising. He explained that this was an irreversible move. This was his political offer:
‘I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me, so that everyone remembers this: people living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia become our citizens forever. (Applause.)’
‘We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately cease fire, all hostilities, the war that it unleashed back in 2014, and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this, it has been said more than once. But we will not discuss the choice of the people in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, it has been made, Russia will not betray it. (Applause.) And today's Kyiv authorities should treat this free will of the people with respect, and nothing else. This is the only way to peace.’
Should Kyiv do as he asked and accept the permanent transfer of these provinces, it is not clear what they would be getting in return: Putin presumably would be looking for Ukrainian neutrality and the ending of sanctions. If he was negotiating from a position of strength then these demands might have some credibility. But his position is weak. Ukraine’s only interest is total Russian withdrawal which Putin now says in constitutionally impossible.
Even those in the West most keen to push for a negotiation around the current territorial holdings should appreciate that however difficult it is to get Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, they are not going to convince Ukraine to withdraw from Ukraine. In addition, while Crimea had a separate status of all its own, because of its annexation back in 2014, it was possible to imagine how it might be dealt with in negotiations by special measures. Now it is just one of five illegally annexed provinces whose fate is tied together.
Putin has boxed himself in with these moves. Before it was possible to imagine, if always unlikely, that there could be some diplomatic means to bring the bloodshed to an end, for example by discussing forms of shared citizenship for those who wished to be attached to Russia or new forms of security arrangements. That path has now been blocked. The Ukrainian government’s response to the speech was to insist that that they could not negotiate with Russia so long as Putin remains in power. The war is now destined to carry on to its own bitter end. It also means that even should the fighting end it is not clear how issues such as war crimes, reparations and the unwinding of the sanctions’ regime will be handled.
Implications for Nuclear Use
Nuclear threats were not as prominent in this speech as they had been in the mobilisation announcement of 21 September. There was a strong implicit reference when he spoke of** Russia’s willingness to use ‘all available means’ to keep safe Russian territory, in its new expanded definition. There was also an explicit hint, when he referred to the US as ‘the only country in the world that twice used nuclear weapons, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.’ He then added, ‘Incidentally, they created a precedent.’ In the years since 1945 enormous international efforts, many involving the first the Soviet Union and then Russia, went into ensuring – successfully - that this precedent was not followed. But at least Putin did not follow this up with any overt nuclear threats. Conveying a sense of of nuclear menace is part of his strategy, but that is not the same as identifying ways of employing these weapons to help turn the tide of this war without making everything a whole lot worse.
The nuclear issue does come into play with Zelensky’s response to Putin’s statement. He announced that he would seek to fast track the country’s accession to NATO. Holding back on that aspiration was the one big concession that Zelensky was keeping available as something that might be put on the table in a serious negotiation. But the Biden Administration quickly dismissed the idea that this could be addressed at speed. Once Ukraine joined NATO it would benefit from the alliance’s Article V and expect active engagement in Ukraine’s defence. This is exactly the development that Putin has been using his nuclear forces to seek to deter. But the application can stay on the table, a reminder to Russia that once nuclear weapons were used in any form they would no longer be serving a deterrent purpose.
Biden’s main response, as he dismissed the legitimacy of Putin’s move, will affect the course of the war. He announcee_d that he was pushing forward with the next $12 billion assistance package to Ukraine and imposing more sanctions on Russia and members of the elite responsible for the prosecution of this war.
The Implications of Lyman
Meanwhile as this elite gathered to listen to Putin’s speech news was coming in from eastern Ukraine of the effective encirclement of the town of Lyman, a key logistical hub for the eastern Donbas, as anticipated in my previous postt_. I pointed there to the tension between a political strategy that must have the Russian flag in as many places as possible and a military strategy that should conserve scarce resources, and so trading space for time, abandon vulerable positions to establish stronger defensive lines that might be held until the newly mobilised forces can fill out the front lines. The political strategy has won. Putin’s fixation with taking and holding pieces of territory at whatever cost has made a full defeat more likely.
There were believed to be some 2,500 troops in Lyman along with a similar number already pushed out by Ukrainian forces from surrounding villages. Cut off from logistical support, the Russians do not appear to be settling down for a long drawn out defence of their position but instead are trying to get out in some shape or form. There are reports from Ukrainian sources that the Russian troops asked for permission to evacuate but this was denied. Now their position is even wose than shown in the above map. They are trapped, without supplies or reinforcements, and must either surrender or try to find their own way out in the face of heavy Ukrainian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces do not need to storm Russian positions. Instead they can use available forces to press on, making a point of crossing the border into Luhansk. The absence of the forces caught in Lyman, and growing logistical difficulties, means that Russian forces will continue to be pushed back. Ukrainian forces are reported to be pressing Kreminna and may soon threaten the Russian positions in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, taken in June after a long and costly (for both sides) struggle.
All this mocks Putin’s announcement, demonstrating that he can’t hold what he has just annexed. The qustion now is how long the Russian people and, most importantly, the members of the power elite, put up with this recklessness. Polling suggests that support for the war has fallen sharply. The latestt_ shows that from 48% of Russians wanting the war to continue in August now only 29% are detrmined about pressing on. Another 15% are lukewarm and 48% want peace. Putin offers no way to fight or negotiate a way to victory. More men may so far have fled the country than joined the army. The audience at St George’s Hall look more perplexed than inspired, watching a man who has lost his swagger, caught up in a deluded world of his own construction, but out of which he has inflicted a real-world catastrophe.

There's no difference in what is provided. Lend lease is just an accounting mechanism. Up to now, everything sent to Ukraine has been a gift and had to be counted as an expense to the government. Under LL, those assets are transferred with the expectation that they'll be returned or payments made for their use. Nothing is expected back or paid for two years under the bill.

Oh .. so ... no extra gains then, in fact a sort of loss for Ukraine but at least it might help US sentiment

Thank you for that article @MagicFox

Looks like talk of an encirclement may have been overstated

Def mon at defmon3
So we now have geolocated footage from both sides of Lyman. As some of you noticed, no gunshots could be heard in the video. It's very likely Lyman has been evacuated by RU

Suggestion is that Russia did withdraw after all.

It's not a loss for Ukraine. The decisions on what to provide Ukraine are driven by what they need, what we think is reasonable to give them, and what our inventories can supply without putting our readiness at excessive risk.

What it does is preempt some of the domestic objections about the expense. If, in two years time, Ukraine can't return the goods or make the lease payments they'll be written off.

$70 billion is a figure I recall from March. A lot of that (if it is the correct figure) has been transferred on account and some has yet to be drawn. I get the impression this is intended to last this year only. a lot can happen in the meantime and there is a weakening of support in at least one of the houses I recall.

Of course, the US has a little black book in a bottom draw. There is always a plan B which in my experience dealing with the US means it was always plan A after all.

If, in two years time, Ukraine can't return the goods or make the lease payments they'll be written off.

Ok excellent. That is what I was worrying about.

Good thread on Kherson and why Ukraine is moving very slowly around it. Sum up: pinning excellent Russian troops down there means that they can't defend Russian-occupied territory elsewhere.

The writer says he has family in Kherson btw

twitter.com/AleksandrX13/status/1575854946976960512

Christo Grozev of Bellingcat, who is meticulously accurate, says that the centre of Lyman is in Ukrainian hands now.

Or The Russians may be out of ammunition or combat ineffective.

ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/