I'm also concerned that all the fleeing Russians will be bringing a bloody awful attitude with them and will overwhelm Georgia etc.
ISW Key Takeaways
The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.
Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.
Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication (GLOCS) that support Russian troops in the Drobysheve-Lyman area.
Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.
Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.
Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.
An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.
Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.
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⚡️ Russian media: Kremlin to announce annexation of Ukrainian territories on Sept. 30
🤡 The organizers of the sham 'referendum' in the Luhansk region cast more ballots than people in the region — Serhii Haidai, the head of the Regional Military Administration
According to the Russian invaders' calculations, 1.6 million people took part in the sham 'referendum'.
"Too many ‘votes’. More than there are actually people. It turns out that both children and ‘dead souls’ also ‘voted’ in the pseudo-referendum in the Luhansk region," Haidai noted.
⚡️ Ukraine returns 6 more POWs from Russian captivity.
⚡️ Politico: US asks China, India to convince Putin not to use nuclear weapons.
The. U.S. officials are urging countries of the Pacific region to put pressure on Russian dictator (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/politico-us-asks-china-india-to-convince-putin-not-to-use-nuclear-weapons) Vladimir Putin and communicate to him that the use of nuclear weapons will have a harsh economic and diplomatic response, Politico reports, citing unnamed sources in President Joe Biden's administration.
⚡️ NATO calls Nord Stream leaks 'deliberate acts of sabotage.'
⚡️ NGO: Russia sends conscripts from annexed Crimea to fight in Kherson Oblast.
Russia is sending newly mobilized Crimean men to the front lines in Kherson Oblast, according to Ukrainian non-governmental organization CrimeaSOS.
⚡️Poll: Putin's approval rating fell after mobilization began.
The share of those who approve of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s performance dropped from 83% in August to 77% in September, according to a survey conducted by polling agency Levada Center on Sept. 22-28. [still extremely high, though ofc there are questions as to 1) do people dare to put what they really think and 2) are the results accurately reported anyway?)
⚡️Ukraine's General Staff: Russia has conscripted 100,000 people since Sept. 21.
⚡️Zelensky to hold urgent security council meeting on Sept. 30 as Russia annexes more Ukrainian land.
⚡️Intelligence: Probability of Russia striking Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons is ‘very high'.
“They will likely target places along the frontlines with lots of personnel and equipment, key command centers, and critical infrastructure,” Vadym Skibitsky, a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told The Guardian.
[The US has said it does not believe the threat is as high as Ukraine believes]
⚡️Energoatom: Russian landmine explodes near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
However, a Russian landmine exploded at the transmission line that supplies power to a nitrogen generator, and a short circuit occurred at the sixth reactor, Energoatom said.
However, a Russian landmine exploded at the transmission line that supplies power to a nitrogen generator, and a short circuit occurred at the sixth reactor, Energoatom said.
⚡️Polish minister: NATO may strike Russia with aircraft, missiles if it uses nukes in Ukraine.
⚡️General Staff: Belarusian military airfields, railways preparing to receive troops.
According to Hromov, this indicates that preparations are underway for the long-term use of the airfield, including for the Russian army.
📍 Belarus is preparing to receive 20,000 mobilized from the Russian Federation — Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine
📣 Ukraine's victory could help solve the problem of Transnistria — Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova
🔎 The United States was not involved in the North Stream gas pipelines explosions — Reuters
A senior Pentagon military official said this on Wednesday, September 28.
📌 About 300,000 tons of methane will be released into the atmosphere due to gas leakage from Nord Stream — Bloomberg
⚡️ ICEYE satellites, one of which was purchased by the Serhiy Prytula Foundation for the army with the donations of Ukrainians, helped identify more than 60 units of military equipment in the first two days of operation alone — Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov [these were bought by a crowd-funded charity for Ukraine a few months ago]
🔔 Russia stripped its western borders to feed the fight in Ukraine — Foreign Policy
Of an original estimated 30,000 Russian troops that once faced the Baltic countries and southern Finland, as many as 80% of them have been diverted to Ukraine, according to three senior European defense officials in the region,
🔗 The Pentagon offered Denmark its assistance in investigation of explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines — U.S. Department of Defense Press Service
🤝 Canada will help Ukraine to restore the railway infrastructure – Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine
⚡️ In Ukraine, 41-year-old Alexey Nagin, the commander of Wagner PMC, was liquidated — InformNapalm
📣 The Italian Embassy recommends fellow citizens to leave Russia if their stay there is not absolutely necessary
📍 Erdogan asked Putin to give another chance to negotiations with Ukraine and once again offered Ankara to mediate in this process, the press service of the Turkish President reports
‼️Russia struck a civilian convoy on its way out of Zaporizhzhia with missiles
People were standing in line to leave for the temporarily occupied territory to pick up their relatives and deliver aid. There were fatalities and injuries.
◾️ According to preliminary data, 23 people were killed and 28 people were wounded as a result of a rocket attack on a civilian humanitarian convoy, said the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Starukh
📍The Russian occupiers in the Kherson region are threatening local residents with eviction and forced deportation outside the occupied territories if they do not receive Russian passports by October 1.
500 personnel, high vehicle losses and 2 planes & 1 helicopter. The sheer ruin!
I'm afraid there was a drama with the ducklings last night, older son left the door open a moment and the cat grabbed one. Fortunately the duckling was rescued unharmed but rather shocked. Fed well this morning though!